Geoff Garin
@geoffgarin.bsky.social
Hart Research Associates, proudly Kamala Harris 2024.
Pinned
Geoff Garin
@geoffgarin.bsky.social
· Nov 12
I have seen several commentators say that the issue of democracy did not resonate more because it is "too abstract." A survey we conducted last December offers a different possible explanation: Young voters, Black voters, and Latino voters want to improve our democracy, not just protect it.
Reposted by Geoff Garin
New at Can We Still Govern? New Medicaid work requirements will see an estimated 5 million lose coverage.
Small investments in in-house tech capacity could allow states to start preparing now to expand automatic renewal of clients. Here is the evidence 🧵
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-a-van-...
Small investments in in-house tech capacity could allow states to start preparing now to expand automatic renewal of clients. Here is the evidence 🧵
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-a-van-...
Lessons from Pandemic Era Medicaid Automation for Work Requirements
Small tech capacity investments offer big returns
donmoynihan.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:22 PM
New at Can We Still Govern? New Medicaid work requirements will see an estimated 5 million lose coverage.
Small investments in in-house tech capacity could allow states to start preparing now to expand automatic renewal of clients. Here is the evidence 🧵
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-a-van-...
Small investments in in-house tech capacity could allow states to start preparing now to expand automatic renewal of clients. Here is the evidence 🧵
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-a-van-...
Reposted by Geoff Garin
Trump getting booed at the Commanders game
November 9, 2025 at 11:05 PM
Trump getting booed at the Commanders game
Trump’s pro-hunger policies are a cruel disgrace
November 9, 2025 at 6:14 PM
Trump’s pro-hunger policies are a cruel disgrace
Reposted by Geoff Garin
In Georgia’s statewide races on Tuesday, the two Democratic candidates won 8 counties where, in 2024, Kamala Harris had received UNDER 40%.
via: almanacofamericanpolitics.substack.com/p/democrats-...
via: almanacofamericanpolitics.substack.com/p/democrats-...
November 9, 2025 at 3:23 PM
In Georgia’s statewide races on Tuesday, the two Democratic candidates won 8 counties where, in 2024, Kamala Harris had received UNDER 40%.
via: almanacofamericanpolitics.substack.com/p/democrats-...
via: almanacofamericanpolitics.substack.com/p/democrats-...
Extending the ACA tax credits this year would allow Republicans to run on repealing the Affordable Care Act next year and give the voters a chance to weigh in.
November 8, 2025 at 9:20 PM
Extending the ACA tax credits this year would allow Republicans to run on repealing the Affordable Care Act next year and give the voters a chance to weigh in.
Reposted by Geoff Garin
New York millionaires: threatening to flee the city since 2009
November 7, 2025 at 9:36 PM
New York millionaires: threatening to flee the city since 2009
Thune and Senate Republicans will be 100% responsible for both the shutdown and soaring health insurance costs if they refuse Schumer's very reasonable compromise offer.
A reminder that Trump, Thune, and Johnson can end the shutdown in a heartbeat by letting both chambers vote on a CR that includes a one-year extension of the ACA tax credits. It would pass both the Senate and the House with large bipartisan majorities.
November 7, 2025 at 8:59 PM
Thune and Senate Republicans will be 100% responsible for both the shutdown and soaring health insurance costs if they refuse Schumer's very reasonable compromise offer.
A reminder that Trump, Thune, and Johnson can end the shutdown in a heartbeat by letting both chambers vote on a CR that includes a one-year extension of the ACA tax credits. It would pass both the Senate and the House with large bipartisan majorities.
November 7, 2025 at 5:07 PM
A reminder that Trump, Thune, and Johnson can end the shutdown in a heartbeat by letting both chambers vote on a CR that includes a one-year extension of the ACA tax credits. It would pass both the Senate and the House with large bipartisan majorities.
Voters already know Trump doesn’t want to hear about affordability - that’s a big reason for Tuesday’s Democratic sweep.
November 7, 2025 at 1:30 AM
Voters already know Trump doesn’t want to hear about affordability - that’s a big reason for Tuesday’s Democratic sweep.
Reposted by Geoff Garin
Georgia Democrats scored an upset in an obscure race for the state utility board by focusing on costs while Republicans wanted to make it another partisan litmus test. Democrats romped. Is it a bellwether for the midterms? via @opinion.bloomberg.com Gift link: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
This Georgia Upset Is the Real Preview of 2026
Pocketbook issues took center stage in Democratic victories in Virginia, New Jersey and New York Tuesday night, as well as in a usually obscure election in Georgia. Because Georgia is far more of a sw...
www.bloomberg.com
November 6, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Georgia Democrats scored an upset in an obscure race for the state utility board by focusing on costs while Republicans wanted to make it another partisan litmus test. Democrats romped. Is it a bellwether for the midterms? via @opinion.bloomberg.com Gift link: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Reposted by Geoff Garin
CNBC - US job cuts last month surged 183% from September and went up 175% from than the same month a year ago. This is now the worst year for layoffs since 2009. www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/job-c...
Job cuts in October hit highest level for the month in 22 years, Challenger says
Job cuts for October totaled 153,074, a 183% surge from September.
www.cnbc.com
November 6, 2025 at 1:02 PM
CNBC - US job cuts last month surged 183% from September and went up 175% from than the same month a year ago. This is now the worst year for layoffs since 2009. www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/job-c...
Reposted by Geoff Garin
New @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social data shows GOP position on the shutdown eroding; deep unhappiness with Trump's attempt to starve people; Republicans losing the big arguments.
navigatorresearch.org/government-s...
navigatorresearch.org/government-s...
November 5, 2025 at 11:34 AM
New @navigatorsurvey.bsky.social data shows GOP position on the shutdown eroding; deep unhappiness with Trump's attempt to starve people; Republicans losing the big arguments.
navigatorresearch.org/government-s...
navigatorresearch.org/government-s...
Trump is right about one thing: Voters are holding Trump and Republicans responsible for the shutdown and its harmful consequences, and Republicans paid a price for it yesterday.
PPP polled 816 Virginia voters on Sunday to assess the impact of the government shutdown on the election for governor. Every indicator is that the shutdown is creating a backlash against Trump and Republicans and has increased support for Abigail Spanberger.
Here are the key findings:
Here are the key findings:
November 5, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Trump is right about one thing: Voters are holding Trump and Republicans responsible for the shutdown and its harmful consequences, and Republicans paid a price for it yesterday.
Reposted by Geoff Garin
November 5, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Reposted by Geoff Garin
We saw a blue wave roll across America tonight! I’m so proud of our candidates across the board.
Let’s keep it going in 2026.
Let’s keep it going in 2026.
November 5, 2025 at 4:17 AM
We saw a blue wave roll across America tonight! I’m so proud of our candidates across the board.
Let’s keep it going in 2026.
Let’s keep it going in 2026.
Reposted by Geoff Garin
Tonight, was another reminder: there is no single mold for a Democratic winner.
Progressives won. Moderates won. Rural, suburban, urban —they all won. Black, White, Latino, AAPI — they all won. We won in the East, South, Midwest and West. Victories in races from City Council to Governor.
Progressives won. Moderates won. Rural, suburban, urban —they all won. Black, White, Latino, AAPI — they all won. We won in the East, South, Midwest and West. Victories in races from City Council to Governor.
November 5, 2025 at 3:56 AM
Tonight, was another reminder: there is no single mold for a Democratic winner.
Progressives won. Moderates won. Rural, suburban, urban —they all won. Black, White, Latino, AAPI — they all won. We won in the East, South, Midwest and West. Victories in races from City Council to Governor.
Progressives won. Moderates won. Rural, suburban, urban —they all won. Black, White, Latino, AAPI — they all won. We won in the East, South, Midwest and West. Victories in races from City Council to Governor.
Reposted by Geoff Garin
Cry harder.
Trump will never be on the ballot again.
And Trump can reopen the Republican shutdown this week by stopping the Republican assault on healthcare and hungry kids.
#bluewave
Trump will never be on the ballot again.
And Trump can reopen the Republican shutdown this week by stopping the Republican assault on healthcare and hungry kids.
#bluewave
November 5, 2025 at 3:45 AM
Cry harder.
Trump will never be on the ballot again.
And Trump can reopen the Republican shutdown this week by stopping the Republican assault on healthcare and hungry kids.
#bluewave
Trump will never be on the ballot again.
And Trump can reopen the Republican shutdown this week by stopping the Republican assault on healthcare and hungry kids.
#bluewave
Reposted by Geoff Garin
Trump and his party are “far more likely to harvest anger & disappointment for his second-term agenda than to build anything like a permanent majority. The opposition can now emerge from the shadow of an especially cursed year, and fight back.”
V-good @edkilgore.bsky.social
nymag.com/intelligence...
V-good @edkilgore.bsky.social
nymag.com/intelligence...
The Democrats Have Undone Trump’s Magic
The voters who flocked to the GOP last year ran away on Tuesday.
nymag.com
November 5, 2025 at 4:00 AM
Trump and his party are “far more likely to harvest anger & disappointment for his second-term agenda than to build anything like a permanent majority. The opposition can now emerge from the shadow of an especially cursed year, and fight back.”
V-good @edkilgore.bsky.social
nymag.com/intelligence...
V-good @edkilgore.bsky.social
nymag.com/intelligence...
It is impossible to overstate the size, scope, and magnitude of the Democratic victories tonight in New Jersey, Virginia, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, with California still to come and looking just as strong.
November 5, 2025 at 4:00 AM
It is impossible to overstate the size, scope, and magnitude of the Democratic victories tonight in New Jersey, Virginia, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, with California still to come and looking just as strong.
How many Democrats feel tonight:
November 5, 2025 at 2:15 AM
How many Democrats feel tonight:
On second thought, never mind
November 5, 2025 at 1:44 AM
On second thought, never mind
Reposted by Geoff Garin
NBC News exit polls
VIRGINIA GOV 2021
Economy is the #1 issue
Economy voters prefer Youngkin+11 over McAuliffe
VIRGINIA GOV 2025
Economy is the #1 issue
Economy voters prefer Spanberger+20 over Earle-Sears
Sea change. TBD if it replicates elsewhere.
VIRGINIA GOV 2021
Economy is the #1 issue
Economy voters prefer Youngkin+11 over McAuliffe
VIRGINIA GOV 2025
Economy is the #1 issue
Economy voters prefer Spanberger+20 over Earle-Sears
Sea change. TBD if it replicates elsewhere.
November 5, 2025 at 12:49 AM
NBC News exit polls
VIRGINIA GOV 2021
Economy is the #1 issue
Economy voters prefer Youngkin+11 over McAuliffe
VIRGINIA GOV 2025
Economy is the #1 issue
Economy voters prefer Spanberger+20 over Earle-Sears
Sea change. TBD if it replicates elsewhere.
VIRGINIA GOV 2021
Economy is the #1 issue
Economy voters prefer Youngkin+11 over McAuliffe
VIRGINIA GOV 2025
Economy is the #1 issue
Economy voters prefer Spanberger+20 over Earle-Sears
Sea change. TBD if it replicates elsewhere.
Everywhere you look, voters are delivering a first class thrashing of Trump and Republicans tonight.
November 5, 2025 at 1:24 AM
Everywhere you look, voters are delivering a first class thrashing of Trump and Republicans tonight.
It's been "living hell" for the country, so GOP senators can join the club.
SCOOP: Trump readying "living hell" for GOP senators over nuking filibuster
Scoop: Trump readying "living hell" for GOP senators over nuking filibuster
"He will call them at three o'clock in the morning," one adviser told Axios.
trib.al
November 4, 2025 at 7:37 PM
It's been "living hell" for the country, so GOP senators can join the club.
Trump doesn’t seem to understand or care that Americans mostly blame him for all the bad consequences of the shutdown- true of SNAP cuts and will be true if he closes down FAA operations.
November 4, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Trump doesn’t seem to understand or care that Americans mostly blame him for all the bad consequences of the shutdown- true of SNAP cuts and will be true if he closes down FAA operations.