Russia plays this game well... putin is again on voice chat with trump -> no axes nor tomahawks ..."to make peace"..

Images released by CoastGuard

x.com/Merivartiost...

This ought to be understood well in EU. IF we let Ukraine fall - certainly many would resist occupation - But THIS is what would happen. Also people must work... All that would be huge ++ for rus war machine

I think they are probing for a suitable level of incursion/action where part of nato is for artcl.5 while some are not.

Armed shaheed could be for one-time case, but better a downed plane with follow-up small escalation and land-grab for "security concerns"

Now we have official information with time, path etc. from Estonian Def.forces:

estonianworld.com/security/est...

Does not coincide with initial note about VAINDLOO island nor exit near Naissaari.

But source is quite credible..

I would say 6 allied fighters were tracking them. Also USS Bainbridge was ~near. But there are rules prior engagement. Q is: Are NATO nations ready for escalation. RUS would try to retaliate somehow. World is different now than when Turks shot down plane.

But these will continue until such time...

Finally a timeline for incursion: 0900FIN/EST => 0600UTC

"The aircraft crossed near Vaindloo Island over the Gulf of Finland shortly after 9 AM" estonianworld.com/security/est...

Have a look, This is approximate, but verified to last until Naissaari NW of Tallinn, Thus 300/350kn track length is closest

bsky.app/profile/gary...

Heh, yeah little less, but Americans tend to like to have "keep-out" zone which is not that much. 10-15nm, even 5nm in such tight spot. Anyway - it does not make incursion allowed.

Also, USS B had able time to reach Baltics by that time if they went even 12-15knots.

New info from EST, Incursion lasted until over Naissaari.

This is exactly below 300/350kt trackline.

www.hs.fi/maailma/art-...

USS Bainbridge departed Helsinki THU 18th, 16:20FIN => 13:20UTC so little late.

But I'm fairly sure ship could be linked to incursion, which occured 50km south, ~14-18 hours later.

www.ruutu.fi/video/4784409

merivoimat.fi/-/merivoimat...

Coincidentally USS Bainbridgen was on port call in Helsinki during the week. (www.hs.fi/helsinki/art...) , it was to depart THU 1100UTC. And will par-take exercises on N Baltics from 22th->

So where was it when MIG's violated airspace?
Were they "avoiding" overfly? @auonsson.bsky.social ??

And I'm sorry my Swedish friends. Griben => Gripen 😱

Might work against india, but not china. Definetly against slovaks and hungary.

While EU should grow some balls, also
I think "leader of the free world" should get their act together.. or they wont be for long.

At least license plate matches to Kalingrad region:

Codes 39 and 91 for Kalingrad
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle...

- Unverif claims of extra fuel tank => Could also be due to targeting western UKR.

- And of western SIMs => Those probably also operate on UKR soil, which might be real reason.

Accident - Unintentional incursion

- Tracks do not support this => Incursions were so deep and geo-distributed that malfunctions or gps jamming cannot really be reasons.

- Programming error => They send 100's drones every night to several targets, suddenly 19 cross border?