Gabriela I. Rosa
@gabrielairosa.bsky.social
Bori de Toa Alta - Analyst @CNA_org Russia Studies Program - I write about Russia + European Security for the military-intellectual complex - Opinions my own
@dexeve.bsky.social and I wrote this piece a while ago for
@bulletinatomic.bsky.social. In it, we propose interpreting the Russia-Belarusian nuclear sharing agreement along with Minsk's behavior surrounding it as a tool for the political survival of the Lukashenko regime. 1/?
@bulletinatomic.bsky.social. In it, we propose interpreting the Russia-Belarusian nuclear sharing agreement along with Minsk's behavior surrounding it as a tool for the political survival of the Lukashenko regime. 1/?
Belarus's nuclear sharing arrangement with the Kremlin makes it far more difficult for Minsk to act independently, write @gabrielairosa.bsky.social and @dexeve.bsky.social.
"The 'Zapad' exercise and how Lukashenko learned to love the Bomb." ⬇️
"The 'Zapad' exercise and how Lukashenko learned to love the Bomb." ⬇️
The 'Zapad' exercise and how Lukashenko learned to love the Bomb
Despite being highly anticipated, the sudden change in public rhetoric about this year's Zapad strategic military exercise suggests that the Russia-Belarus relationship may be more complicated than…
thebulletin.org
November 6, 2025 at 4:03 PM
@dexeve.bsky.social and I wrote this piece a while ago for
@bulletinatomic.bsky.social. In it, we propose interpreting the Russia-Belarusian nuclear sharing agreement along with Minsk's behavior surrounding it as a tool for the political survival of the Lukashenko regime. 1/?
@bulletinatomic.bsky.social. In it, we propose interpreting the Russia-Belarusian nuclear sharing agreement along with Minsk's behavior surrounding it as a tool for the political survival of the Lukashenko regime. 1/?
Reposted by Gabriela I. Rosa
The deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus marks Moscow’s effort to adapt its deterrence posture to a shifting geopolitical landscape by evolving its escalation management strategy, analyze @gabrielairosa.bsky.social, @dexeve.bsky.social & Paul Schwartz @cna.org 6/10
www.cna.org
October 24, 2025 at 4:57 AM
The deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus marks Moscow’s effort to adapt its deterrence posture to a shifting geopolitical landscape by evolving its escalation management strategy, analyze @gabrielairosa.bsky.social, @dexeve.bsky.social & Paul Schwartz @cna.org 6/10
In our latest, @dexeve.bsky.social and I change it up by combining an analysis of satellite imagery and military writings to assess what the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus means for Russia's escalation management strategy. 1/?
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
October 16, 2025 at 11:28 AM
In our latest, @dexeve.bsky.social and I change it up by combining an analysis of satellite imagery and military writings to assess what the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus means for Russia's escalation management strategy. 1/?
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
In this new @CNA_org report, I analyze how authoritative figures in the Russian mil view threats in the wake of the war in Ukraine. The key insight: Traditional Russian threat perceptions haven't shifted — they've been sharpened. 1/?
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
October 2, 2025 at 2:45 PM
In this new @CNA_org report, I analyze how authoritative figures in the Russian mil view threats in the wake of the war in Ukraine. The key insight: Traditional Russian threat perceptions haven't shifted — they've been sharpened. 1/?
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
In this report, my colleagues, @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social, Paul Schwartz, and I argue that despite its technical-tactical innovation in its war against Ukr, Russia still approaches a potential war w/ NATO with the same operational assumptions it had before 2022. 1/?
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
Russian Concepts of Future Warfare Based on Lessons from the Ukraine War
This paper examines the evolution of military strategy and conventional operations over the Russia-Ukraine War.
www.cna.org
August 12, 2025 at 6:02 PM
In this report, my colleagues, @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social, Paul Schwartz, and I argue that despite its technical-tactical innovation in its war against Ukr, Russia still approaches a potential war w/ NATO with the same operational assumptions it had before 2022. 1/?
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
Come visit us at AMSUS.
March 3, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Come visit us at AMSUS.
If you're at ISA 2025 tomorrow, my partner in crime, @alxgraef from @ifshhamburg.bsky.social will be presenting a rough draft of our paper at a panel from 1:45pm-3:30pm titled "The Karaganov Debate: Experts, the Public Sphere and Nuclear Policymaking in Russia." Go check it out.
March 3, 2025 at 1:09 AM
If you're at ISA 2025 tomorrow, my partner in crime, @alxgraef from @ifshhamburg.bsky.social will be presenting a rough draft of our paper at a panel from 1:45pm-3:30pm titled "The Karaganov Debate: Experts, the Public Sphere and Nuclear Policymaking in Russia." Go check it out.
Reposted by Gabriela I. Rosa
Sergey Rogov dedicated a good bit of his life to trying to advance, and more lately save, prospects for arms control, even as his health declined. Always intelligent, often infuriating, and never unwilling to talk. I agree with Andrey--this is a big loss.
Kommersant reports that Sergey Rogov longtime Director (and recently Research Director) of Institute of US and Canada studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences died at the age of 76. A huge loss for Russian expert community h/t @dvsteff.bsky.social www.kommersant.ru/doc/7495931
Умер научный руководитель Института США и Канады РАН Сергей Рогов
Подробнее на сайте
www.kommersant.ru
February 9, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Sergey Rogov dedicated a good bit of his life to trying to advance, and more lately save, prospects for arms control, even as his health declined. Always intelligent, often infuriating, and never unwilling to talk. I agree with Andrey--this is a big loss.
Glad to have contribute to this and to have had the opportunity to collaborate with my amazing mentor, @olyaoliker.bsky.social. Interested in European security and what happens next?
Read here:
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
Read here:
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
February 1, 2025 at 10:28 PM
Glad to have contribute to this and to have had the opportunity to collaborate with my amazing mentor, @olyaoliker.bsky.social. Interested in European security and what happens next?
Read here:
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
Read here:
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
Hot off the press. We had to wait a while to get this out but check out the great work of my colleagues:
www.cna.org/reports/2025...
www.cna.org/reports/2025...
The Evolving Russia-Iran Relationship
The Russia-Iran relationship has changed over the past decade, and this report examines the relationship in temporal and thematic dimensions.
www.cna.org
January 29, 2025 at 9:55 PM
Hot off the press. We had to wait a while to get this out but check out the great work of my colleagues:
www.cna.org/reports/2025...
www.cna.org/reports/2025...
Last week, my colleague @sambendett.bsky.social, @exit266.bsky.social, and I took to twitter spaces to discuss Russian military medicine in Ukraine along with UGV/UAV developments.
Listen to our discussion here: x.com/sambendett/s...
Listen to our discussion here: x.com/sambendett/s...
x.com
x.com
December 2, 2024 at 6:44 PM
Last week, my colleague @sambendett.bsky.social, @exit266.bsky.social, and I took to twitter spaces to discuss Russian military medicine in Ukraine along with UGV/UAV developments.
Listen to our discussion here: x.com/sambendett/s...
Listen to our discussion here: x.com/sambendett/s...
A good day to reiterate our work on Russian domestic debates about the credibility of nuclear threats and potential nuclear employment.
See our work here if you want to read about how the events that took place today are part of an ongoing conversation since early 2022:
www.cna.org/reports/2024...
See our work here if you want to read about how the events that took place today are part of an ongoing conversation since early 2022:
www.cna.org/reports/2024...
Moscow Does Not Believe in Tears
Moscow’s nuclear weapons doctrine is at an inflection point. This report examines the debates in Russia about the ineffectiveness of nuclear weapons threats.
www.cna.org
November 19, 2024 at 1:15 PM
A good day to reiterate our work on Russian domestic debates about the credibility of nuclear threats and potential nuclear employment.
See our work here if you want to read about how the events that took place today are part of an ongoing conversation since early 2022:
www.cna.org/reports/2024...
See our work here if you want to read about how the events that took place today are part of an ongoing conversation since early 2022:
www.cna.org/reports/2024...
Reposted by Gabriela I. Rosa
On the evolution of Russian military medicine since 2022, by @gabrielairosa.bsky.social for CNA. Really informative. Check it out.
www.cna.org
November 17, 2024 at 3:33 PM
On the evolution of Russian military medicine since 2022, by @gabrielairosa.bsky.social for CNA. Really informative. Check it out.
Little is available in English about the experience of Russia’s military health system since Feb 2022. Our review found several challenges affecting its ability to care for the wounded in Ukraine. 1/?
Read the latest by the CNA Russia Studies Program here:
www.cna.org/reports/2024...
Read the latest by the CNA Russia Studies Program here:
www.cna.org/reports/2024...
We Need a Medic!
The paper finds that Russia’s war on Ukraine has stressed the Russian military medical system and that the system continues to be at risk of being overburdened because of the demands of the protracted...
www.cna.org
November 18, 2024 at 3:18 PM
Little is available in English about the experience of Russia’s military health system since Feb 2022. Our review found several challenges affecting its ability to care for the wounded in Ukraine. 1/?
Read the latest by the CNA Russia Studies Program here:
www.cna.org/reports/2024...
Read the latest by the CNA Russia Studies Program here:
www.cna.org/reports/2024...
Reposted by Gabriela I. Rosa
Hi Folks: Firing up this account for the first time to note that today marks one year since the Russian government detained my colleague Evan Gershkovic in an act of supreme cynicism and cowardice. WSJ’s response is this stunning front page. #FreeEvan
March 29, 2024 at 3:32 AM
Hi Folks: Firing up this account for the first time to note that today marks one year since the Russian government detained my colleague Evan Gershkovic in an act of supreme cynicism and cowardice. WSJ’s response is this stunning front page. #FreeEvan
My colleague @alxgraef and I make sense of what has transpired in the past month at the OSCE and discuss the CFE Treaty’s demise and its implications:
www.justsecurity.org/90612/the-cf...
www.justsecurity.org/90612/the-cf...
The CFE Treaty’s Demise and the OSCE: Time to Think Anew?
NATO's suspension of the pact and Russia's earlier withdrawal compounds the OSCE's crisis, as conventional arms control in Europe collapses.
www.justsecurity.org
December 13, 2023 at 3:56 PM
My colleague @alxgraef and I make sense of what has transpired in the past month at the OSCE and discuss the CFE Treaty’s demise and its implications:
www.justsecurity.org/90612/the-cf...
www.justsecurity.org/90612/the-cf...
Allegedly, Belarus will continue to implement the Treaty with other state parties. But this sets up the scene for an interesting meeting of states-parties taking place in November. Poland announced earlier that it would cease implementation of the Treaty in relation to the Republic of Belarus.
Belarus suspends CFE cooperation with Czechia and Poland. Apparently, Belarus communicated that it would not send the CFE information and notifications and would not host verification inspections via the OSCE communications network. belta.by/politics/vie...
October 20, 2023 at 6:12 PM
Allegedly, Belarus will continue to implement the Treaty with other state parties. But this sets up the scene for an interesting meeting of states-parties taking place in November. Poland announced earlier that it would cease implementation of the Treaty in relation to the Republic of Belarus.
Belarus suspends CFE cooperation with Czechia and Poland. Apparently, Belarus communicated that it would not send the CFE information and notifications and would not host verification inspections via the OSCE communications network. belta.by/politics/vie...
October 20, 2023 at 6:09 PM
Belarus suspends CFE cooperation with Czechia and Poland. Apparently, Belarus communicated that it would not send the CFE information and notifications and would not host verification inspections via the OSCE communications network. belta.by/politics/vie...
My colleague, @alxgraef, and I make an unpopular argument. In our piece, we argue that ditching the CFE Treaty may not contribute to all that much to the security of NATO members at the moment. Check it out below:
fpri.org/article/2023/0… via @fpri.bsky.social
fpri.org/article/2023/0… via @fpri.bsky.social
1
https://fpri.org/article/2023/0…
October 3, 2023 at 9:27 PM
My colleague, @alxgraef, and I make an unpopular argument. In our piece, we argue that ditching the CFE Treaty may not contribute to all that much to the security of NATO members at the moment. Check it out below:
fpri.org/article/2023/0… via @fpri.bsky.social
fpri.org/article/2023/0… via @fpri.bsky.social