Finn Merchant 🏴
@finnmerchant.bsky.social
Aberdeen University | 2nd Year History and Politics | SNP Member | DUFC 🟧⬛️ | 💖💜💙
Reposted by Finn Merchant 🏴
🧵 Where do Reform votes come from?
Following Reform's chunky share in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, it's worth looking at where those votes come from. We're not getting much polling in Scotland lately, but we can check the most recent Survation and Norstat (2nd - 5th and 27th - 30th of May)...
Following Reform's chunky share in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, it's worth looking at where those votes come from. We're not getting much polling in Scotland lately, but we can check the most recent Survation and Norstat (2nd - 5th and 27th - 30th of May)...
June 7, 2025 at 10:47 AM
🧵 Where do Reform votes come from?
Following Reform's chunky share in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, it's worth looking at where those votes come from. We're not getting much polling in Scotland lately, but we can check the most recent Survation and Norstat (2nd - 5th and 27th - 30th of May)...
Following Reform's chunky share in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, it's worth looking at where those votes come from. We're not getting much polling in Scotland lately, but we can check the most recent Survation and Norstat (2nd - 5th and 27th - 30th of May)...
Why is it always the same set of regions? Why not a Tayside or Grampian or Lanarkshire?
Almost-certainly final new Holyrood boundaries were set out a few weeks ago. South and Central (and Lothians West) revert to *two* proposal sets ago, i.e. South has the East Kilbride and Hamilton seats. Compared to last version, that means Glasgow rather than South for the new 8-constituency region.
April 6, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Why is it always the same set of regions? Why not a Tayside or Grampian or Lanarkshire?
Reposted by Finn Merchant 🏴
🚨Personal News🚨
I will be seeking selection to be your @snp.org candidate for Falkirk West
I firmly believe I have the skills, experience and dedication to win this seat for our members, for independence and For Falkirk’s Future
🏴🏴
#ForFalkirksFuture
I will be seeking selection to be your @snp.org candidate for Falkirk West
I firmly believe I have the skills, experience and dedication to win this seat for our members, for independence and For Falkirk’s Future
🏴🏴
#ForFalkirksFuture
March 20, 2025 at 7:00 PM
🚨Personal News🚨
I will be seeking selection to be your @snp.org candidate for Falkirk West
I firmly believe I have the skills, experience and dedication to win this seat for our members, for independence and For Falkirk’s Future
🏴🏴
#ForFalkirksFuture
I will be seeking selection to be your @snp.org candidate for Falkirk West
I firmly believe I have the skills, experience and dedication to win this seat for our members, for independence and For Falkirk’s Future
🏴🏴
#ForFalkirksFuture
Reposted by Finn Merchant 🏴
Shona has made such a formidable contribution to the SNP, to Parliament and to the Scottish Government.
She has been a great friend, colleague and ally to me and I am sorry she will stand down at the election.
I send my warmest wishes to her for all that lies ahead.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
She has been a great friend, colleague and ally to me and I am sorry she will stand down at the election.
I send my warmest wishes to her for all that lies ahead.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Finance Secretary Shona Robison to stand down as MSP - BBC News
The former deputy first minister says the time is right to "take on some new challenges".
www.bbc.co.uk
March 5, 2025 at 8:55 AM
Shona has made such a formidable contribution to the SNP, to Parliament and to the Scottish Government.
She has been a great friend, colleague and ally to me and I am sorry she will stand down at the election.
I send my warmest wishes to her for all that lies ahead.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
She has been a great friend, colleague and ally to me and I am sorry she will stand down at the election.
I send my warmest wishes to her for all that lies ahead.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Finn Merchant 🏴
Kilmarnock North (East Ayrshire) by-election, first preferences:
SNP: 748 (35.8%, -11.8)
Labour: 582 (27.8%, -0.1)
Ind Grant: 277 (13.2%, +5.1)
Reform UK: 212 (10.1%, new)
Conservative: 159 (7.6%, -6.2)
Green: 75 (3.6%, new)
Lib Dem: 37 (1.8%, new)
Ind McNamara: 2 (0.1%, new)
SNP elected stage 8.
SNP: 748 (35.8%, -11.8)
Labour: 582 (27.8%, -0.1)
Ind Grant: 277 (13.2%, +5.1)
Reform UK: 212 (10.1%, new)
Conservative: 159 (7.6%, -6.2)
Green: 75 (3.6%, new)
Lib Dem: 37 (1.8%, new)
Ind McNamara: 2 (0.1%, new)
SNP elected stage 8.
February 20, 2025 at 11:27 PM
Kilmarnock North (East Ayrshire) by-election, first preferences:
SNP: 748 (35.8%, -11.8)
Labour: 582 (27.8%, -0.1)
Ind Grant: 277 (13.2%, +5.1)
Reform UK: 212 (10.1%, new)
Conservative: 159 (7.6%, -6.2)
Green: 75 (3.6%, new)
Lib Dem: 37 (1.8%, new)
Ind McNamara: 2 (0.1%, new)
SNP elected stage 8.
SNP: 748 (35.8%, -11.8)
Labour: 582 (27.8%, -0.1)
Ind Grant: 277 (13.2%, +5.1)
Reform UK: 212 (10.1%, new)
Conservative: 159 (7.6%, -6.2)
Green: 75 (3.6%, new)
Lib Dem: 37 (1.8%, new)
Ind McNamara: 2 (0.1%, new)
SNP elected stage 8.
Reposted by Finn Merchant 🏴
No. I've had enough. This is an utterly inappropriate attempt to intervene in an ongoing Employment Tribunal in and of itself, never mind the fact it's repulsive, misleading, cheap, dogwhistle bollocks.
The leader of Scottish Labour is not fit for public office. This is disgusting.
The leader of Scottish Labour is not fit for public office. This is disgusting.
February 20, 2025 at 2:42 PM
No. I've had enough. This is an utterly inappropriate attempt to intervene in an ongoing Employment Tribunal in and of itself, never mind the fact it's repulsive, misleading, cheap, dogwhistle bollocks.
The leader of Scottish Labour is not fit for public office. This is disgusting.
The leader of Scottish Labour is not fit for public office. This is disgusting.
Reposted by Finn Merchant 🏴
New Scottish Parliament poll, Norstat 11-14 Feb (changes vs 4-6 Dec):
List:
SNP ~ 30% (-2)
Lab ~ 17% (-1)
Con ~ 15% (-1)
RUK ~ 13% (+1)
LD ~ 11% (+1)
Grn ~ 10% (+2)
Alba ~ 4% (-1)
Constituency:
SNP ~ 35% (-2)
Lab ~ 18% (-3)
Con ~ 15% (+1)
RUK ~ 14% (+2)
LD ~ 11% (+1)
Grn ~ 6% (+1)
Alba ~ 2% (+2)
List:
SNP ~ 30% (-2)
Lab ~ 17% (-1)
Con ~ 15% (-1)
RUK ~ 13% (+1)
LD ~ 11% (+1)
Grn ~ 10% (+2)
Alba ~ 4% (-1)
Constituency:
SNP ~ 35% (-2)
Lab ~ 18% (-3)
Con ~ 15% (+1)
RUK ~ 14% (+2)
LD ~ 11% (+1)
Grn ~ 6% (+1)
Alba ~ 2% (+2)
February 15, 2025 at 9:57 PM
New Scottish Parliament poll, Norstat 11-14 Feb (changes vs 4-6 Dec):
List:
SNP ~ 30% (-2)
Lab ~ 17% (-1)
Con ~ 15% (-1)
RUK ~ 13% (+1)
LD ~ 11% (+1)
Grn ~ 10% (+2)
Alba ~ 4% (-1)
Constituency:
SNP ~ 35% (-2)
Lab ~ 18% (-3)
Con ~ 15% (+1)
RUK ~ 14% (+2)
LD ~ 11% (+1)
Grn ~ 6% (+1)
Alba ~ 2% (+2)
List:
SNP ~ 30% (-2)
Lab ~ 17% (-1)
Con ~ 15% (-1)
RUK ~ 13% (+1)
LD ~ 11% (+1)
Grn ~ 10% (+2)
Alba ~ 4% (-1)
Constituency:
SNP ~ 35% (-2)
Lab ~ 18% (-3)
Con ~ 15% (+1)
RUK ~ 14% (+2)
LD ~ 11% (+1)
Grn ~ 6% (+1)
Alba ~ 2% (+2)
Reposted by Finn Merchant 🏴
Thoughts on today's Find Out Now poll for @heraldscotland.bsky.social...(1/5)
TL;DR: if this isn't an outlier, it indicates bad design on FON's part.
Let's start with the constituency vote. This isn't too bad, but it does have the Green and Alba vote >50% higher than other pollsters...
TL;DR: if this isn't an outlier, it indicates bad design on FON's part.
Let's start with the constituency vote. This isn't too bad, but it does have the Green and Alba vote >50% higher than other pollsters...
February 2, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Thoughts on today's Find Out Now poll for @heraldscotland.bsky.social...(1/5)
TL;DR: if this isn't an outlier, it indicates bad design on FON's part.
Let's start with the constituency vote. This isn't too bad, but it does have the Green and Alba vote >50% higher than other pollsters...
TL;DR: if this isn't an outlier, it indicates bad design on FON's part.
Let's start with the constituency vote. This isn't too bad, but it does have the Green and Alba vote >50% higher than other pollsters...
Reposted by Finn Merchant 🏴
Long Read: A Plea for Plausible Polling
Recent FindOutNow polling has been obvious bollocks. Scotland doesn't get enough polling that we can afford to have complete rubbish distorting our discourse.
Recent FindOutNow polling has been obvious bollocks. Scotland doesn't get enough polling that we can afford to have complete rubbish distorting our discourse.
Long Read: A Plea for Plausible Polling
Recent FindOutNow polling has been obvious bollocks. Scotland doesn't get enough polling that we can afford to have complete rubbish distorting our discourse.
ballotbox.scot
February 2, 2025 at 2:39 PM
Long Read: A Plea for Plausible Polling
Recent FindOutNow polling has been obvious bollocks. Scotland doesn't get enough polling that we can afford to have complete rubbish distorting our discourse.
Recent FindOutNow polling has been obvious bollocks. Scotland doesn't get enough polling that we can afford to have complete rubbish distorting our discourse.
Reposted by Finn Merchant 🏴
Just-for-fun relaunch of my just-for-fun New Municipalism project tomorrow! What if Scotland actually had something approximating normal European local government?
(I actually did... 80% of the work for this *last* Christmas/New Year period, but needed the census data out this year to finalise)
(I actually did... 80% of the work for this *last* Christmas/New Year period, but needed the census data out this year to finalise)
January 5, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Just-for-fun relaunch of my just-for-fun New Municipalism project tomorrow! What if Scotland actually had something approximating normal European local government?
(I actually did... 80% of the work for this *last* Christmas/New Year period, but needed the census data out this year to finalise)
(I actually did... 80% of the work for this *last* Christmas/New Year period, but needed the census data out this year to finalise)
Reposted by Finn Merchant 🏴
It is really important, and my challenge to journalists and academics and so on in general is to do this, to point out how completely and utterly out of kilter the UK's idea of "local" government is with international norms. Local government on these islands is an embarrassing legal fiction.
Excl: Government will move to scrap district councils in its devolution white paper on Monday, sparking the biggest local government reorganisation in 50 years
on.ft.com/3VBH0ui
on.ft.com/3VBH0ui
District councils face scrapping in major overhaul of English local government
[FREE TO READ] Devolution white paper aims to create larger authorities and more elected mayors
on.ft.com
December 14, 2024 at 1:20 PM
It is really important, and my challenge to journalists and academics and so on in general is to do this, to point out how completely and utterly out of kilter the UK's idea of "local" government is with international norms. Local government on these islands is an embarrassing legal fiction.
Reposted by Finn Merchant 🏴
🏴 We will end the two-child cap in Scotland - lifting 15,000 children out of poverty.
🥀 Labour need to do the right thing on child poverty - and back our budget.
🥀 Labour need to do the right thing on child poverty - and back our budget.
December 6, 2024 at 6:52 PM
🏴 We will end the two-child cap in Scotland - lifting 15,000 children out of poverty.
🥀 Labour need to do the right thing on child poverty - and back our budget.
🥀 Labour need to do the right thing on child poverty - and back our budget.
0°C, Snowing, and ofcource this is the day my radiator wants to stop working.
November 19, 2024 at 10:54 AM
0°C, Snowing, and ofcource this is the day my radiator wants to stop working.
And again!!!
Super John Mcginn!!!
November 18, 2024 at 7:58 PM
And again!!!
Reposted by Finn Merchant 🏴
Super John Mcginn!!!
November 15, 2024 at 9:35 PM
Super John Mcginn!!!
Reposted by Finn Merchant 🏴
This was heartbreaking. Unfortunately banning fireworks is outwith Scottish devolved powers. I have written to new Labour UK govt to discuss this issue. 1/2
November 15, 2024 at 7:20 AM
This was heartbreaking. Unfortunately banning fireworks is outwith Scottish devolved powers. I have written to new Labour UK govt to discuss this issue. 1/2
Reposted by Finn Merchant 🏴
The issue is less courage, and more that my readers know whom I'm discussing without them needing to be named.
Interesting that Ms Cherry doesn't pick up my point that she woefully underperformed her party and that is why she lost her seat. She'd have held it had she matched the national swing.
Interesting that Ms Cherry doesn't pick up my point that she woefully underperformed her party and that is why she lost her seat. She'd have held it had she matched the national swing.
November 15, 2024 at 3:00 PM
The issue is less courage, and more that my readers know whom I'm discussing without them needing to be named.
Interesting that Ms Cherry doesn't pick up my point that she woefully underperformed her party and that is why she lost her seat. She'd have held it had she matched the national swing.
Interesting that Ms Cherry doesn't pick up my point that she woefully underperformed her party and that is why she lost her seat. She'd have held it had she matched the national swing.
2 Months*
I'm so ready to be here for a week then completely forget about this place for a month.
October 26, 2024 at 10:45 PM
2 Months*
I'm so ready to be here for a week then completely forget about this place for a month.
August 29, 2024 at 7:36 PM
I'm so ready to be here for a week then completely forget about this place for a month.