Affan
@feynzz.bsky.social
Chartered Accountant/Trader/Investor. I invest based on fundamentals only. Addicted to Free Cash Flow. Views are my own, DYOR.
More positive than negative. In the next year the business will generate profits equal to 80% of market cap and may exceed market cap by 2027. I think they will buy out the pref shares this year.
September 22, 2025 at 4:52 PM
More positive than negative. In the next year the business will generate profits equal to 80% of market cap and may exceed market cap by 2027. I think they will buy out the pref shares this year.
They have 6 unencumbered aircraft, that won't be enough but yes I expect them to raise secured finance against them to pay off the more expensive bonds. They really can bring this down to $250m or lower..
September 9, 2025 at 4:01 PM
They have 6 unencumbered aircraft, that won't be enough but yes I expect them to raise secured finance against them to pay off the more expensive bonds. They really can bring this down to $250m or lower..
Bofa high yield index at 6.45%..
September 9, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Bofa high yield index at 6.45%..
Yes but not indication of what the profit is. Don't think it would have changed. I suspect most of it would be used to buy back debt (maybe get unsecured bonds to c$270m?)
September 9, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Yes but not indication of what the profit is. Don't think it would have changed. I suspect most of it would be used to buy back debt (maybe get unsecured bonds to c$270m?)
vimeo.com/1060139741
Around 34:50 Jeff mentioned that they are in the process of starting to sell them.. Let's see if they managed to sell any.
Around 34:50 Jeff mentioned that they are in the process of starting to sell them.. Let's see if they managed to sell any.
Avation PLC Half Year Results Call
This is "Avation PLC Half Year Results Call" by LSEG Studios on Vimeo, the home for high quality videos and the people who love them.
vimeo.com
September 5, 2025 at 9:18 AM
vimeo.com/1060139741
Around 34:50 Jeff mentioned that they are in the process of starting to sell them.. Let's see if they managed to sell any.
Around 34:50 Jeff mentioned that they are in the process of starting to sell them.. Let's see if they managed to sell any.
Thank you! I noticed your comment on their PAL Holdings stake. From memory, in their Feb interim results presentation they mentioned that they had started the process of selling down their stake. I am not sure how far they got with it. I guess we will only find out with the FY results announcement.
September 5, 2025 at 7:45 AM
Thank you! I noticed your comment on their PAL Holdings stake. From memory, in their Feb interim results presentation they mentioned that they had started the process of selling down their stake. I am not sure how far they got with it. I guess we will only find out with the FY results announcement.
@carcosa61.bsky.social have you read the RNS just now? Is it the same plane that was meant to be leased to JCAS? That means the lease with JCAS is not going ahead and Avation gets to keep the deposit?
September 4, 2025 at 9:10 AM
@carcosa61.bsky.social have you read the RNS just now? Is it the same plane that was meant to be leased to JCAS? That means the lease with JCAS is not going ahead and Avation gets to keep the deposit?
but I think we are entering into the closed period now as FY results due in a month etc.
September 2, 2025 at 1:12 PM
but I think we are entering into the closed period now as FY results due in a month etc.
End of quarter would suggest end Sept/early Oct. That aligns with the announcement of FY25 results so maybe around then if not before (with the announcement of completion of the B777 sale?)
August 22, 2025 at 8:55 AM
End of quarter would suggest end Sept/early Oct. That aligns with the announcement of FY25 results so maybe around then if not before (with the announcement of completion of the B777 sale?)
Anywhere between 1800p to 2000p. It is still ridiculously cheap..
August 21, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Anywhere between 1800p to 2000p. It is still ridiculously cheap..
Then if they buyback more shares post refinancing then its further value accretive. This should at least be 250p but in a M&A scenario could even be 300p+. Lets see..
August 20, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Then if they buyback more shares post refinancing then its further value accretive. This should at least be 250p but in a M&A scenario could even be 300p+. Lets see..
Hard to put a target price but I think of it like this. NAV c275p (incl FX movement) then they say market value of planes greater than book by $82m, that adds another 90pps so we are at 360p. This is before refinancing. I think the value of ATR options increases further over time.
August 20, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Hard to put a target price but I think of it like this. NAV c275p (incl FX movement) then they say market value of planes greater than book by $82m, that adds another 90pps so we are at 360p. This is before refinancing. I think the value of ATR options increases further over time.
This is before taking into account the huge discount to NAV and off balance sheet value (market value of the fleet vs book value). I think we are entering a very exciting period for the stock and the company but market is sleeping. I don't see how this is not over 200p (minimum) by year end.
August 20, 2025 at 12:14 PM
This is before taking into account the huge discount to NAV and off balance sheet value (market value of the fleet vs book value). I think we are entering a very exciting period for the stock and the company but market is sleeping. I don't see how this is not over 200p (minimum) by year end.