Affan
@feynzz.bsky.social
Chartered Accountant/Trader/Investor. I invest based on fundamentals only. Addicted to Free Cash Flow. Views are my own, DYOR.
#AVAP.L Rangeley down to 12.9% on 9th Sep, they will probably hold off selling more based on their "Long DYODD" post from 10th Sept. At least for now.
AVAP should try and buy back another block of shares from them (now that they have the firepower),should be value accretive for the rest of us.
AVAP should try and buy back another block of shares from them (now that they have the firepower),should be value accretive for the rest of us.
September 12, 2025 at 9:49 AM
#AVAP.L Rangeley down to 12.9% on 9th Sep, they will probably hold off selling more based on their "Long DYODD" post from 10th Sept. At least for now.
AVAP should try and buy back another block of shares from them (now that they have the firepower),should be value accretive for the rest of us.
AVAP should try and buy back another block of shares from them (now that they have the firepower),should be value accretive for the rest of us.
#AVAP.L just announced the completion of the sale of B777 at a material profit and generated material cash as a result. No figures given which is frustrating but we will find out by FY results. More cash to buy back bonds (and maybe some more shares from Rangeley and Co who are the clear sellers).
September 9, 2025 at 9:47 AM
#AVAP.L just announced the completion of the sale of B777 at a material profit and generated material cash as a result. No figures given which is frustrating but we will find out by FY results. More cash to buy back bonds (and maybe some more shares from Rangeley and Co who are the clear sellers).
#AVAP.L unsecured debt outstanding now at $298m, finance costs already significantly lower versus last year. Nice statement out today highlighting the total value of debt repayments over the last 5 years probably setting the mood for bond refi, also highlighting the improved credit rating.
September 8, 2025 at 6:16 AM
#AVAP.L unsecured debt outstanding now at $298m, finance costs already significantly lower versus last year. Nice statement out today highlighting the total value of debt repayments over the last 5 years probably setting the mood for bond refi, also highlighting the improved credit rating.
#AVAP.L New lease agreement signed for a new ATR 72-600 to be delivered in Nov 25 with SUM Air. I don't think it's news but confirmation of delivery this calendar year is positive. The ATR 72-600 on order and leased to a Japanese airline should arrive sooner, so we should two new ATRs by Nov 25.
September 3, 2025 at 8:11 AM
#AVAP.L New lease agreement signed for a new ATR 72-600 to be delivered in Nov 25 with SUM Air. I don't think it's news but confirmation of delivery this calendar year is positive. The ATR 72-600 on order and leased to a Japanese airline should arrive sooner, so we should two new ATRs by Nov 25.
#AVAP.L getting some interest post the AL acquisition announcement. I know Raper and Co have been sellers for a while, interesting to see if another party taking interest although I would quite like the company to buy some more of their own stock at this level before re-fi
September 2, 2025 at 1:12 PM
#AVAP.L getting some interest post the AL acquisition announcement. I know Raper and Co have been sellers for a while, interesting to see if another party taking interest although I would quite like the company to buy some more of their own stock at this level before re-fi
More evidence of the increasing popularity of the turboprops specifically ATR 72-600.
www.aviation24.be/airlines/bra...
www.aviation24.be/airlines/bra...
Braathens Airline to phase out Airbus fleet, focus on ATR72-600 for ACMI growth
Braathens Airline has announced a strategic shift in its fleet plan, deciding to gradually retire its Airbus aircraft by 2027 and focus exclusively on the
www.aviation24.be
August 28, 2025 at 6:24 AM
More evidence of the increasing popularity of the turboprops specifically ATR 72-600.
www.aviation24.be/airlines/bra...
www.aviation24.be/airlines/bra...
#AVAP.L BOFA high yield index now at 6.58% (lowest since April 2022). Good timing for bonds refinance perhaps. Avation currently pays 8.25% in cash/9% PIK. 100bps lower would make a c$3m p.a. difference. Finance costs on bonds already lower by $2.5m p.a. vs last year due to repurchases.
August 26, 2025 at 2:20 PM
#AVAP.L BOFA high yield index now at 6.58% (lowest since April 2022). Good timing for bonds refinance perhaps. Avation currently pays 8.25% in cash/9% PIK. 100bps lower would make a c$3m p.a. difference. Finance costs on bonds already lower by $2.5m p.a. vs last year due to repurchases.
#AVAP.L Tick-tock. The bonds can be re-financed from 1st Nov, I expect an announcement in Sept. The company should save anywhere between $7m to $10m in finance costs going forward vs last year. Even applying a multiple of 5, logically that should result in a $35m to $50m uplift in market cap.
August 20, 2025 at 12:14 PM
#AVAP.L Tick-tock. The bonds can be re-financed from 1st Nov, I expect an announcement in Sept. The company should save anywhere between $7m to $10m in finance costs going forward vs last year. Even applying a multiple of 5, logically that should result in a $35m to $50m uplift in market cap.
#AEP.L 1200p now, was 600p last September. The fundamnetals then were the same vs what they are now. Only difference is market starting to believe it now.
Hold on to your deep value quality stocks.
Hold on to your deep value quality stocks.
August 20, 2025 at 11:22 AM
#AEP.L 1200p now, was 600p last September. The fundamnetals then were the same vs what they are now. Only difference is market starting to believe it now.
Hold on to your deep value quality stocks.
Hold on to your deep value quality stocks.
#AEP.L what an impressive set of interim results. Half the market cap in net cash and a hugely profitable company with a BOD now focusing on shareholder returns. Another £8m buyback announced today and intention for a Q3 interim divi. The shares are still cheap as chips and should at least be 2x.
August 11, 2025 at 6:06 AM
#AEP.L what an impressive set of interim results. Half the market cap in net cash and a hugely profitable company with a BOD now focusing on shareholder returns. Another £8m buyback announced today and intention for a Q3 interim divi. The shares are still cheap as chips and should at least be 2x.
#AVAP.L
Again not sure how accurate this is but if true would seem to suggest the B777 deal has completed. Big movement from $303m a few hours earlier. We will probably find out next week.
Again not sure how accurate this is but if true would seem to suggest the B777 deal has completed. Big movement from $303m a few hours earlier. We will probably find out next week.
August 8, 2025 at 3:01 PM
#AVAP.L
Again not sure how accurate this is but if true would seem to suggest the B777 deal has completed. Big movement from $303m a few hours earlier. We will probably find out next week.
Again not sure how accurate this is but if true would seem to suggest the B777 deal has completed. Big movement from $303m a few hours earlier. We will probably find out next week.
#AEP.L appointed Cavendish as financial advisors. I think we will finally see the first ever research note on this hidden gem. Valued at a 50% discount to #MPE.L if not more. This morning's volume suggests someone might finally be taking notice. Has been a great ride from 600p less than a year ago.
August 5, 2025 at 9:59 AM
#AVAP.L Looks like the company has bought back another $5m of their unsecured bonds leaving the outstanding amount at $305m. $25m bought back since April, finance costs already lower by $2.1m p.a before you take into account re-fi etc.
July 25, 2025 at 10:34 AM
#AVAP.L Looks like the company has bought back another $5m of their unsecured bonds leaving the outstanding amount at $305m. $25m bought back since April, finance costs already lower by $2.1m p.a before you take into account re-fi etc.
#AVAP.L the signs indicate that we should see a refinance later this year, maybe announced by Sept and can only apply from 1st Nov.
$33m net cash post sale of B777 and potential secured debt on unencumbered aircraft could be 2 levers they can use to reduce finance costs further.
$33m net cash post sale of B777 and potential secured debt on unencumbered aircraft could be 2 levers they can use to reduce finance costs further.
July 22, 2025 at 3:02 PM
#AVAP.L the signs indicate that we should see a refinance later this year, maybe announced by Sept and can only apply from 1st Nov.
$33m net cash post sale of B777 and potential secured debt on unencumbered aircraft could be 2 levers they can use to reduce finance costs further.
$33m net cash post sale of B777 and potential secured debt on unencumbered aircraft could be 2 levers they can use to reduce finance costs further.
Read for fun.
Brazilians concerned that the US tariffs could increase the price of an Embraer jet imported in the US by $9m on average.
g1.globo.com/pe/pernambuc...
Brazilians concerned that the US tariffs could increase the price of an Embraer jet imported in the US by $9m on average.
g1.globo.com/pe/pernambuc...
Tarifa de 50% devem causar impacto de US$ 9 mi por aeronave vendida pela Embraer
Cerca de 24% da receita da Embraer vêm de exportações para os EUA.
g1.globo.com
July 17, 2025 at 6:18 PM
Read for fun.
Brazilians concerned that the US tariffs could increase the price of an Embraer jet imported in the US by $9m on average.
g1.globo.com/pe/pernambuc...
Brazilians concerned that the US tariffs could increase the price of an Embraer jet imported in the US by $9m on average.
g1.globo.com/pe/pernambuc...
I have no doubt that the company will continue to buy back more shares at this level increasing value further for shareholders. Makes perfect sense to do so after the sale of B777 which will raise $33m in net cash proceeds after payment of associated debt.
#AVAP.L The bonds are now trading at 99c on the dollar. What does that suggest?
Equity market still sleeping partially because of the opportunity being provided by Rangeley to retail investors. Huge discount to NAV and re-fi would only increase the NAV and improve profitability significantly. DYOR
Equity market still sleeping partially because of the opportunity being provided by Rangeley to retail investors. Huge discount to NAV and re-fi would only increase the NAV and improve profitability significantly. DYOR
July 15, 2025 at 3:28 PM
I have no doubt that the company will continue to buy back more shares at this level increasing value further for shareholders. Makes perfect sense to do so after the sale of B777 which will raise $33m in net cash proceeds after payment of associated debt.
#AVAP.L The bonds are now trading at 99c on the dollar. What does that suggest?
Equity market still sleeping partially because of the opportunity being provided by Rangeley to retail investors. Huge discount to NAV and re-fi would only increase the NAV and improve profitability significantly. DYOR
Equity market still sleeping partially because of the opportunity being provided by Rangeley to retail investors. Huge discount to NAV and re-fi would only increase the NAV and improve profitability significantly. DYOR
July 15, 2025 at 3:02 PM
#AVAP.L The bonds are now trading at 99c on the dollar. What does that suggest?
Equity market still sleeping partially because of the opportunity being provided by Rangeley to retail investors. Huge discount to NAV and re-fi would only increase the NAV and improve profitability significantly. DYOR
Equity market still sleeping partially because of the opportunity being provided by Rangeley to retail investors. Huge discount to NAV and re-fi would only increase the NAV and improve profitability significantly. DYOR
#AVAP.L bought back 215000 shares at 160p. They bought a chunk from Rangeley at 150p last year and now willing to take more at 160p. Value accretive for current shareholders, buying £1 chips for 50p. Good business.
July 9, 2025 at 7:49 AM
#AVAP.L bought back 215000 shares at 160p. They bought a chunk from Rangeley at 150p last year and now willing to take more at 160p. Value accretive for current shareholders, buying £1 chips for 50p. Good business.
#AVAP.L ATR is on to something here. Just announced another order for 16 aircraft by airline in Algeria, this is on back of the order for 19 they received from UniAir last month. IndiGo order still to come.
This is good news for AVAP's order book and options
www.atr-aircraft.com/presspost/ai...
This is good news for AVAP's order book and options
www.atr-aircraft.com/presspost/ai...
Air Algérie Places Major Order for 16 New ATR 72-600s | ATR
www.atr-aircraft.com
July 4, 2025 at 8:25 AM
#AVAP.L ATR is on to something here. Just announced another order for 16 aircraft by airline in Algeria, this is on back of the order for 19 they received from UniAir last month. IndiGo order still to come.
This is good news for AVAP's order book and options
www.atr-aircraft.com/presspost/ai...
This is good news for AVAP's order book and options
www.atr-aircraft.com/presspost/ai...