Felix S. Bethke
@felixbethke.bsky.social
Political Scientist at Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF, @priforg.bsky.social)
Tweets on DataScience, Econometrics and African Politics
Website: fbethke.netlify.app
Tweets on DataScience, Econometrics and African Politics
Website: fbethke.netlify.app
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
Since their rollout, I have made heavy use of the custom GPT tools in ChatGPT. Here is a thread of some of the tools that I use regularly (all of them require ChatGPT 4). I think they are most useful for people doing quantitative social science, but some are more general.
January 5, 2024 at 7:29 AM
Since their rollout, I have made heavy use of the custom GPT tools in ChatGPT. Here is a thread of some of the tools that I use regularly (all of them require ChatGPT 4). I think they are most useful for people doing quantitative social science, but some are more general.
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
What explains the recent wave of military coups in Sub-Saharan Africa? In the latest PRIF Spotlight, Markus Bayer (BICC), @felixbethke.bsky.social, Aurel Croissant & Nikitas Scheeder (Heidelberg University) take a look at political militarization as a risk factor.
blog.prif.org/2023/12/28/b...
blog.prif.org/2023/12/28/b...
Back in Business or Never Out? Military Coups and Political Militarization in Sub-Sahara Africa - PR...
This Spotlight discusses the resurgence of military coups in Sub-Saharan Africa. We argue that an analytical and political focus on coup events misses out on the bigger picture of military influence i...
blog.prif.org
December 28, 2023 at 8:58 AM
What explains the recent wave of military coups in Sub-Saharan Africa? In the latest PRIF Spotlight, Markus Bayer (BICC), @felixbethke.bsky.social, Aurel Croissant & Nikitas Scheeder (Heidelberg University) take a look at political militarization as a risk factor.
blog.prif.org/2023/12/28/b...
blog.prif.org/2023/12/28/b...
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
New working paper with Werner Krause & Samer Massoud on the effects of targeting hospitals on violence dynamics in Northwest Syria hicn.org/working-pape...
conflictsky polisky menasky
conflictsky polisky menasky
The bombing of hospitals and local violence dynamics in civil wars: Evidence from Syria – HiCN
Can coercive airpower quell a rebellion? Existing literature on the effects of counterinsurgent violence focuses predominantly on casualties resulting from atta
hicn.org
November 29, 2023 at 3:17 PM
New working paper with Werner Krause & Samer Massoud on the effects of targeting hospitals on violence dynamics in Northwest Syria hicn.org/working-pape...
conflictsky polisky menasky
conflictsky polisky menasky
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
New data alert! UCDP Conflict Issues Dataset (CID) is here! This global yearly dataset contains 14 832 conflict issues – divided into a four-tier typology with 120 categories at the most disaggregated level – raised by all armed non-state groups active in civil war, 1989-2017. t.co/3hrZxZr6Qo
What They Are Fighting For – Introducing the UCDP Conflict Issues Dataset - Johan Brosché, Ralph ...
Although conflict issues – the stated goals of actors engaged in conflict – hold a privileged position in many theoretical explanations of the occurrence, dynam...
t.co
December 1, 2023 at 11:55 AM
New data alert! UCDP Conflict Issues Dataset (CID) is here! This global yearly dataset contains 14 832 conflict issues – divided into a four-tier typology with 120 categories at the most disaggregated level – raised by all armed non-state groups active in civil war, 1989-2017. t.co/3hrZxZr6Qo
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
Please see here for a call for doing more to integrate preregistration into the review process: "Open Letter on the Need for Preregistration Transparency in Peer Review" -- #polisky #econsky
You can sign too -- link is in the letter.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
You can sign too -- link is in the letter.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Open Letter on the Need for Preregistration Transparency in Peer Review
[Academics who wish to sign the letter can do so here: https://forms.gle/aVnT6tmufoRKWQxk7] Open Letter on the Need for Preregistration Transparency in Peer Review Dear colleagues, We write to you ...
docs.google.com
November 17, 2023 at 10:00 PM
Please see here for a call for doing more to integrate preregistration into the review process: "Open Letter on the Need for Preregistration Transparency in Peer Review" -- #polisky #econsky
You can sign too -- link is in the letter.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
You can sign too -- link is in the letter.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
In other words, it is not really possible to have observed higher replicability than we did.
The evidence provides proof-of-concept that high replicability is achievable. We can't, however, say the extent to which each practice contributed to replicability.
The evidence provides proof-of-concept that high replicability is achievable. We can't, however, say the extent to which each practice contributed to replicability.
November 9, 2023 at 5:13 PM
In other words, it is not really possible to have observed higher replicability than we did.
The evidence provides proof-of-concept that high replicability is achievable. We can't, however, say the extent to which each practice contributed to replicability.
The evidence provides proof-of-concept that high replicability is achievable. We can't, however, say the extent to which each practice contributed to replicability.
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
With a total of 16 new discoveries, 16 self-replications, and 48 independent replications, we found high replicability. Independent replication effect sizes were 97% the size of the confirmatory findings.
On the "same direction, p<.05" benchmark, 86% replicated, higher than expected based on power
On the "same direction, p<.05" benchmark, 86% replicated, higher than expected based on power
November 9, 2023 at 5:11 PM
With a total of 16 new discoveries, 16 self-replications, and 48 independent replications, we found high replicability. Independent replication effect sizes were 97% the size of the confirmatory findings.
On the "same direction, p<.05" benchmark, 86% replicated, higher than expected based on power
On the "same direction, p<.05" benchmark, 86% replicated, higher than expected based on power
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
Our paper "High replicability of newly discovered
social-behavioral findings is achievable" appears today in Nature Human Behaviour.
Just as the large replications provided an inflection point in identifying replicability challenges, this paper does so for solutions.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
social-behavioral findings is achievable" appears today in Nature Human Behaviour.
Just as the large replications provided an inflection point in identifying replicability challenges, this paper does so for solutions.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
November 9, 2023 at 5:05 PM
Our paper "High replicability of newly discovered
social-behavioral findings is achievable" appears today in Nature Human Behaviour.
Just as the large replications provided an inflection point in identifying replicability challenges, this paper does so for solutions.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
social-behavioral findings is achievable" appears today in Nature Human Behaviour.
Just as the large replications provided an inflection point in identifying replicability challenges, this paper does so for solutions.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
Polisky - anyone have a good contact at Lucid? Someone who responds fast? Thanks.
November 8, 2023 at 5:16 PM
Polisky - anyone have a good contact at Lucid? Someone who responds fast? Thanks.
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
Start of the special contributed session on Large Language Models and Causality at CDSM '23. Amit Shama presents some novel results on this exciting topic coming out of Microsoft Research. ➡️ causalscience.org
November 8, 2023 at 4:07 PM
Start of the special contributed session on Large Language Models and Causality at CDSM '23. Amit Shama presents some novel results on this exciting topic coming out of Microsoft Research. ➡️ causalscience.org
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
I couldn't find a tutorial I liked to get students who know R up and running with Python, so I wrote my own! Part 1 is here: andrewhalterman.com/post/python_...
(And if you have a tutorial you like, please let me know!)
(And if you have a tutorial you like, please let me know!)
November 8, 2023 at 7:09 PM
I couldn't find a tutorial I liked to get students who know R up and running with Python, so I wrote my own! Part 1 is here: andrewhalterman.com/post/python_...
(And if you have a tutorial you like, please let me know!)
(And if you have a tutorial you like, please let me know!)
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
Public support for democracy is crucial to prevent backsliding. But existing survey questions focusing on “democracy” may not measure the concept well, as the term “democracy” varies in meaning and may prompt social desirability. polisky 1/3
November 6, 2023 at 11:45 AM
Public support for democracy is crucial to prevent backsliding. But existing survey questions focusing on “democracy” may not measure the concept well, as the term “democracy” varies in meaning and may prompt social desirability. polisky 1/3
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
New draft of paper w/ @davidryanmiller.com !
Quick summary:
- Conjoints mimic political choices that people face
- Possible problem: If people don’t approve of choices, they may abstain
- Findings: This matters!!!
- Big update: New ex w/ tied & different attribute prioritisation
Link: osf.io/4ws7m
Quick summary:
- Conjoints mimic political choices that people face
- Possible problem: If people don’t approve of choices, they may abstain
- Findings: This matters!!!
- Big update: New ex w/ tied & different attribute prioritisation
Link: osf.io/4ws7m
osf.io
November 1, 2023 at 1:51 PM
New draft of paper w/ @davidryanmiller.com !
Quick summary:
- Conjoints mimic political choices that people face
- Possible problem: If people don’t approve of choices, they may abstain
- Findings: This matters!!!
- Big update: New ex w/ tied & different attribute prioritisation
Link: osf.io/4ws7m
Quick summary:
- Conjoints mimic political choices that people face
- Possible problem: If people don’t approve of choices, they may abstain
- Findings: This matters!!!
- Big update: New ex w/ tied & different attribute prioritisation
Link: osf.io/4ws7m
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
Important stuff. Most conjoints force subjects to choose. This can distort results in unpredictable ways.
New draft of paper w/ @davidryanmiller.com !
Quick summary:
- Conjoints mimic political choices that people face
- Possible problem: If people don’t approve of choices, they may abstain
- Findings: This matters!!!
- Big update: New ex w/ tied & different attribute prioritisation
Link: osf.io/4ws7m
Quick summary:
- Conjoints mimic political choices that people face
- Possible problem: If people don’t approve of choices, they may abstain
- Findings: This matters!!!
- Big update: New ex w/ tied & different attribute prioritisation
Link: osf.io/4ws7m
osf.io
November 1, 2023 at 3:44 PM
Important stuff. Most conjoints force subjects to choose. This can distort results in unpredictable ways.
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
Apparently ~40% of crowdsource workers use LLMs when completing surveys
Relatively simple fix for text responses: Add Javascript to Qs to prevent pasting
Credit to Jiabi Wang for idea + Kaushal Addanki for code below
github.com/rafmbatista/...
Relatively simple fix for text responses: Add Javascript to Qs to prevent pasting
Credit to Jiabi Wang for idea + Kaushal Addanki for code below
github.com/rafmbatista/...
October 31, 2023 at 1:52 AM
Apparently ~40% of crowdsource workers use LLMs when completing surveys
Relatively simple fix for text responses: Add Javascript to Qs to prevent pasting
Credit to Jiabi Wang for idea + Kaushal Addanki for code below
github.com/rafmbatista/...
Relatively simple fix for text responses: Add Javascript to Qs to prevent pasting
Credit to Jiabi Wang for idea + Kaushal Addanki for code below
github.com/rafmbatista/...
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
Israels Selbstverteidigung: Über die humanitäre Lage in Gaza und die Chancen zur Eindämmung des Konflikts diskutieren heute 19 Uhr im Stream & im Haus am Dom Claudia Baumgart-Ochse & Michel Friedman, Moderation: A. Schwarzkopf, Frankfurter Rundschau: www.hsfk.de/veranstaltun...
October 23, 2023 at 9:24 AM
Israels Selbstverteidigung: Über die humanitäre Lage in Gaza und die Chancen zur Eindämmung des Konflikts diskutieren heute 19 Uhr im Stream & im Haus am Dom Claudia Baumgart-Ochse & Michel Friedman, Moderation: A. Schwarzkopf, Frankfurter Rundschau: www.hsfk.de/veranstaltun...
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
Using admin privileges for today's Dictatorsky shoutout. My study on civilian involvement in military coups. Civilian resources (elite vs. mass-based) shape their conduct in coup politics - from instigation to consolidation. More to come :)
Polisky, CivMilSky
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Polisky, CivMilSky
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
The Varieties of Civilian Praetorianism: Evidence From Sudan’s Coup Politics - Salah Ben Hammou, 2...
This study explores the varieties of civilian praetorianism or the different ways in which civilians enable and support military coups. It specifically argues t...
journals.sagepub.com
October 18, 2023 at 2:56 PM
Using admin privileges for today's Dictatorsky shoutout. My study on civilian involvement in military coups. Civilian resources (elite vs. mass-based) shape their conduct in coup politics - from instigation to consolidation. More to come :)
Polisky, CivMilSky
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Polisky, CivMilSky
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
Dear all, just rediscovering my own website that I put online at the beginning of this year. Needs to be updated but pretty much contains most of the #Stata #dataviz I created in the past three years.
asjadnaqvi.github.io/stata-portfo...
Check it out!
asjadnaqvi.github.io/stata-portfo...
Check it out!
October 16, 2023 at 6:40 PM
Dear all, just rediscovering my own website that I put online at the beginning of this year. Needs to be updated but pretty much contains most of the #Stata #dataviz I created in the past three years.
asjadnaqvi.github.io/stata-portfo...
Check it out!
asjadnaqvi.github.io/stata-portfo...
Check it out!
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
A list of financial data sources, curated for political economy use cases. Official statistics as well as datasets compiled by organizations and academic researchers. Originally assembled for my students, now available on my website. Suggestions welcome!
benjaminbraun.org/teaching/dat...
benjaminbraun.org/teaching/dat...
October 12, 2023 at 12:19 PM
A list of financial data sources, curated for political economy use cases. Official statistics as well as datasets compiled by organizations and academic researchers. Originally assembled for my students, now available on my website. Suggestions welcome!
benjaminbraun.org/teaching/dat...
benjaminbraun.org/teaching/dat...
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) will present its new UCDP Conflict Issues Dataset at the Data4Peace 2023 Conference on October 18 at 10:45 Eastern Time
#conflictsky
Register here:
cic.nyu.edu/events/data-...
#conflictsky
Register here:
cic.nyu.edu/events/data-...
Data for Peace: Leveraging Data to Foster Lasting Peace | Center on International Cooperation
cic.nyu.edu
October 9, 2023 at 12:25 PM
The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) will present its new UCDP Conflict Issues Dataset at the Data4Peace 2023 Conference on October 18 at 10:45 Eastern Time
#conflictsky
Register here:
cic.nyu.edu/events/data-...
#conflictsky
Register here:
cic.nyu.edu/events/data-...
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
Religious Minorities at Risk is available for order at OUP!
In it, we examine how different forms of discrimination & grievance contribute to varying degrees of peaceful & violent mobilization by religious minorities
Use discount code ASFLYQ6 to save 30% at checkout.
polisky | polrel | conflictsky
In it, we examine how different forms of discrimination & grievance contribute to varying degrees of peaceful & violent mobilization by religious minorities
Use discount code ASFLYQ6 to save 30% at checkout.
polisky | polrel | conflictsky
October 5, 2023 at 7:44 PM
Religious Minorities at Risk is available for order at OUP!
In it, we examine how different forms of discrimination & grievance contribute to varying degrees of peaceful & violent mobilization by religious minorities
Use discount code ASFLYQ6 to save 30% at checkout.
polisky | polrel | conflictsky
In it, we examine how different forms of discrimination & grievance contribute to varying degrees of peaceful & violent mobilization by religious minorities
Use discount code ASFLYQ6 to save 30% at checkout.
polisky | polrel | conflictsky
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
My book on data management is available #OpenAccess at www.cambridge.org/core/books/d... ! Also, check out the companion webpage at dmbook.org. I hope that the book will be useful for your research and teaching.
September 27, 2023 at 7:16 PM
My book on data management is available #OpenAccess at www.cambridge.org/core/books/d... ! Also, check out the companion webpage at dmbook.org. I hope that the book will be useful for your research and teaching.
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
Great to see this out: blog post in The Loop summarising our recent PLOS ONE paper, w/ Margherita Belgioioso & Kristian Gleditsch. PoliSky ConflictSky theloop.ecpr.eu/community-de...
Community deprivation drives far-right violence
Using disaggregated data for England, Margherita Belgioioso, Christoph Dworschak, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch show that community deprivation drives far-right violence. Their research reveals how de...
theloop.ecpr.eu
October 4, 2023 at 10:19 AM
Great to see this out: blog post in The Loop summarising our recent PLOS ONE paper, w/ Margherita Belgioioso & Kristian Gleditsch. PoliSky ConflictSky theloop.ecpr.eu/community-de...
Reposted by Felix S. Bethke
🍾New paper with Roberto Cerina, Neil Ketchley, and Aaron Zelin now accepted at Political Analysis journal! polisky cssky sociology drive.google.com/file/d/1Xv3m...
October 3, 2023 at 4:21 PM
🍾New paper with Roberto Cerina, Neil Ketchley, and Aaron Zelin now accepted at Political Analysis journal! polisky cssky sociology drive.google.com/file/d/1Xv3m...