Fat-tailed
fattailed.bsky.social
Fat-tailed
@fattailed.bsky.social
Sheepishly
(That 94% was in 2021 I mean)
November 10, 2025 at 6:58 PM
More than "seems" behind. KC Elections has only counted about 82% of likely total ballots as of Friday. In 2021, they had counted 94% of total ballots as of the Friday after Election Day.
November 10, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Sign me up for this campaign. Fauntleroy/Alaska is worst intersection in the west, with possible exception of California/Edmunds/Erskine. Give me walk all ways on that second one at very least!
November 8, 2025 at 7:59 PM
Their online thing has definitely lagged this year on the turnout #s. Wish I knew where their post got that info from though, it’s a lot of votes!
November 7, 2025 at 8:30 PM
More progress will feel a lot better ofc! But very plausible she could hit 60% of the Monday drop, so if today’s drop gets her in range to win with 60% Monday, don’t return the champagne yet
November 7, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Yup looks same to me. So I think she doesn’t even need to get 54% of the drop today if the *next* drop is as expected. Which is confusing.
November 7, 2025 at 8:19 PM
That's *usually* Thurs and Fri. But we didn't get to 50% counted until Wed this year. And we're not going to pass 75% until today. We're like 3/4 of a day behind.
November 7, 2025 at 8:03 PM
FWIW I think there's a similar kind of issue with looking at the drop by *day*. The more accurate x-axis is looking at it by share of total vote counted. The big swings in 21 and the primary seem to happen when we hit about 75% counted and about 92% counted.
November 7, 2025 at 8:03 PM
I'm hoping the opposite is true ofc. But honestly I have your reaction to this chart — this seems to show turnout weaker among the older, sort of the opposite of what I'd picture a Harrell backlash general election to look like
November 7, 2025 at 8:01 PM
don't we have to also look at the *share* of the population in each of those cohorts? Like if there are more 65+ voters than before, their turnout could go down but they could also be a larger share of the electorate
November 7, 2025 at 7:59 PM
It’s a weird definition. They used to say “ready to count” in the tracker but everyone would anxiously await for it to move to “counted”… but it never did because they can’t track your ballot anymore. I think they figured this is better than that? Probably right!
November 7, 2025 at 2:43 AM
So "counted" really means "will be counted". But doesn't mean it's reflected in the posted #s
November 7, 2025 at 1:34 AM
confusingly, that just means that's it's "ready to count" — i.e they verified the sig and it's good to go through the counting machines. But we never know when it's actually counted in the tally because at that point it's separated from your info because it's a secret ballot.
November 7, 2025 at 1:34 AM
maybe you could call them and ask?
November 7, 2025 at 12:08 AM
They counting the drop boxes today?
November 6, 2025 at 10:57 PM
I agree but for this which made me wonder bsky.app/profile/krom...
Nah, Thursday will tell us a lot. That’s when the drop boxes start getting counted.
November 6, 2025 at 12:53 AM
Sorry are you saying zero drop box votes have been counted, or zero Election Day drop box votes?
November 6, 2025 at 12:43 AM
Got it ironed out, thank you!
November 4, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Ok online tracker now shows counted. What was up with the email with the wrong name though?
November 4, 2025 at 6:08 PM