Ewan Hoyle
@ewanhoyle.bsky.social
Lead strategist at Sprint for PR, the progressive campaign for the electoral reform that protects us all from illegitimate right-wing rule.
Progressive co-operation can deliver the reform we need in this parliament.
Progressive co-operation can deliver the reform we need in this parliament.
But if you appeal to the 30% who rank them first, you appall the 48% who rank them last.
Just make good TV, maybe?
Just make good TV, maybe?
November 11, 2025 at 12:44 PM
But if you appeal to the 30% who rank them first, you appall the 48% who rank them last.
Just make good TV, maybe?
Just make good TV, maybe?
On the Green surge issue, did you cover the possibility that a large proportion of their supporters are still giving a tactical voting intention for Labour in voting intention polls?
The ranked preference poll from early October (when they were 11 points behind Labour with YouGov) showed this 👇
The ranked preference poll from early October (when they were 11 points behind Labour with YouGov) showed this 👇
November 11, 2025 at 8:58 AM
On the Green surge issue, did you cover the possibility that a large proportion of their supporters are still giving a tactical voting intention for Labour in voting intention polls?
The ranked preference poll from early October (when they were 11 points behind Labour with YouGov) showed this 👇
The ranked preference poll from early October (when they were 11 points behind Labour with YouGov) showed this 👇
Ah, fuck Alex, you made me cry.
This was one of my last messages to Peter before he passed away. That was a big, fuck-off lemon.
I'm now committed to bringing about the Green-Lib Dem coalition government that will treat drug users with dignity. I'm demanding a ripe honey mango in his memory. 🥭
This was one of my last messages to Peter before he passed away. That was a big, fuck-off lemon.
I'm now committed to bringing about the Green-Lib Dem coalition government that will treat drug users with dignity. I'm demanding a ripe honey mango in his memory. 🥭
November 10, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Ah, fuck Alex, you made me cry.
This was one of my last messages to Peter before he passed away. That was a big, fuck-off lemon.
I'm now committed to bringing about the Green-Lib Dem coalition government that will treat drug users with dignity. I'm demanding a ripe honey mango in his memory. 🥭
This was one of my last messages to Peter before he passed away. That was a big, fuck-off lemon.
I'm now committed to bringing about the Green-Lib Dem coalition government that will treat drug users with dignity. I'm demanding a ripe honey mango in his memory. 🥭
They may have around 30% in the polls, but nearly half of voters would rank them dead last if they had the chance. They also have the lowest mean favourability score of all the parties.
November 10, 2025 at 12:59 PM
They may have around 30% in the polls, but nearly half of voters would rank them dead last if they had the chance. They also have the lowest mean favourability score of all the parties.
It's a massive potential effect whenever the pollsters measure it (which is almost never).
November 5, 2025 at 10:20 PM
It's a massive potential effect whenever the pollsters measure it (which is almost never).
November 5, 2025 at 9:55 PM
AV might have stopped the rise of Reform UK. If all of our polls were ranked preference polls, then they would consistently show Reform UK being ranked last by around half of voters. That sends a message to potential members and supporters as well as the media that they are deeply unpopular.
November 1, 2025 at 9:49 PM
AV might have stopped the rise of Reform UK. If all of our polls were ranked preference polls, then they would consistently show Reform UK being ranked last by around half of voters. That sends a message to potential members and supporters as well as the media that they are deeply unpopular.
Second and third preferences will cause significant adjustments after first preferences are counted, and Reform UK support pretty much disappears after first preferences.
48% of voters would rank Reform UK dead last. This hasn't changed since the week of the last election.
STV can stop Reform UK.
48% of voters would rank Reform UK dead last. This hasn't changed since the week of the last election.
STV can stop Reform UK.
November 1, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Second and third preferences will cause significant adjustments after first preferences are counted, and Reform UK support pretty much disappears after first preferences.
48% of voters would rank Reform UK dead last. This hasn't changed since the week of the last election.
STV can stop Reform UK.
48% of voters would rank Reform UK dead last. This hasn't changed since the week of the last election.
STV can stop Reform UK.
Half of voters would rank Reform dead last. These people could do with being less silent.
October 27, 2025 at 8:52 PM
Half of voters would rank Reform dead last. These people could do with being less silent.
Very similar to the 48% who would rank them last of the 5 major parties.
October 26, 2025 at 9:05 PM
Very similar to the 48% who would rank them last of the 5 major parties.
I'm enormously proud of the analysis and polling that I have caused to happen over the last few weeks.
My obsessive pursuit of understanding of tactical voting has finally yielded the insights that I believe should transform the prospects for electoral reform in this parliament.
My obsessive pursuit of understanding of tactical voting has finally yielded the insights that I believe should transform the prospects for electoral reform in this parliament.
October 25, 2025 at 10:05 PM
I'm enormously proud of the analysis and polling that I have caused to happen over the last few weeks.
My obsessive pursuit of understanding of tactical voting has finally yielded the insights that I believe should transform the prospects for electoral reform in this parliament.
My obsessive pursuit of understanding of tactical voting has finally yielded the insights that I believe should transform the prospects for electoral reform in this parliament.
The UK public really aren't into this shit.
What chance a Green-Lib Dem coalition government after the next election?
What chance a Green-Lib Dem coalition government after the next election?
October 23, 2025 at 10:43 PM
The UK public really aren't into this shit.
What chance a Green-Lib Dem coalition government after the next election?
What chance a Green-Lib Dem coalition government after the next election?
Time for electoral reform to the Single transferable vote. You need a system that reflects that most voters hate them with a passion.
October 20, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Time for electoral reform to the Single transferable vote. You need a system that reflects that most voters hate them with a passion.
Are there any plans to write up the results of the preferential poll from the start of the month?
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Gr...
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Gr...
October 20, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Are there any plans to write up the results of the preferential poll from the start of the month?
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Gr...
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Gr...
What's happened to the analysis of the poll the Green Party commissioned?
It looks clear that Greens are the most preferred party of the under 50s, not just the 18-24s!
It looks clear that Greens are the most preferred party of the under 50s, not just the 18-24s!
October 19, 2025 at 10:14 PM
What's happened to the analysis of the poll the Green Party commissioned?
It looks clear that Greens are the most preferred party of the under 50s, not just the 18-24s!
It looks clear that Greens are the most preferred party of the under 50s, not just the 18-24s!
At the last election, Reform and the Conservatives were terrible on a dislike to like scale.
After a year of aping their politics, Labour have joined them.
After a year of aping their politics, Labour have joined them.
October 18, 2025 at 10:58 AM
At the last election, Reform and the Conservatives were terrible on a dislike to like scale.
After a year of aping their politics, Labour have joined them.
After a year of aping their politics, Labour have joined them.
It shouldn't be so difficult to form governments without the far-right. AfD have 24.1% of seats with 20.8% of the vote. Under STV they might get 17-18%of seats maybe (I want to model UK STV results using BES data broken down by constituency).
AfD's favourability scores are dire.
AfD's favourability scores are dire.
October 18, 2025 at 10:58 AM
It shouldn't be so difficult to form governments without the far-right. AfD have 24.1% of seats with 20.8% of the vote. Under STV they might get 17-18%of seats maybe (I want to model UK STV results using BES data broken down by constituency).
AfD's favourability scores are dire.
AfD's favourability scores are dire.
@hopenothate.org.uk
would it be possible to talk to someone about some polling that isn't getting enough attention?
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Gr...
would it be possible to talk to someone about some polling that isn't getting enough attention?
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Gr...
October 18, 2025 at 9:55 AM
@hopenothate.org.uk
would it be possible to talk to someone about some polling that isn't getting enough attention?
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Gr...
would it be possible to talk to someone about some polling that isn't getting enough attention?
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Gr...
30% rank Reform UK first.
48% rank Reform UK last.
By appealing to the 30%, Labour have appalled the 48%, otherwise known as their voter coalition.
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Gr...
48% rank Reform UK last.
By appealing to the 30%, Labour have appalled the 48%, otherwise known as their voter coalition.
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Gr...
October 18, 2025 at 9:47 AM
30% rank Reform UK first.
48% rank Reform UK last.
By appealing to the 30%, Labour have appalled the 48%, otherwise known as their voter coalition.
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Gr...
48% rank Reform UK last.
By appealing to the 30%, Labour have appalled the 48%, otherwise known as their voter coalition.
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Gr...
Half of UK voters would rank Reform UK dead last if they had the chance.
If we could communicate this over and over, then maybe their supporters might lose confidence that they're the "silent majority".
They are a loud minority
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Gr...
If we could communicate this over and over, then maybe their supporters might lose confidence that they're the "silent majority".
They are a loud minority
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Gr...
October 18, 2025 at 7:19 AM
Half of UK voters would rank Reform UK dead last if they had the chance.
If we could communicate this over and over, then maybe their supporters might lose confidence that they're the "silent majority".
They are a loud minority
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Gr...
If we could communicate this over and over, then maybe their supporters might lose confidence that they're the "silent majority".
They are a loud minority
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Gr...
Greens ahead of Labour in a YouGov ranked choice poll from this month.
Greens far ahead of Labour in mean favourability scores from the British Election Study in May.
Green voting intention is enormously suppressed by tactical considerations.
If the tactical voting ends, Labour are in trouble.
Greens far ahead of Labour in mean favourability scores from the British Election Study in May.
Green voting intention is enormously suppressed by tactical considerations.
If the tactical voting ends, Labour are in trouble.
October 16, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Greens ahead of Labour in a YouGov ranked choice poll from this month.
Greens far ahead of Labour in mean favourability scores from the British Election Study in May.
Green voting intention is enormously suppressed by tactical considerations.
If the tactical voting ends, Labour are in trouble.
Greens far ahead of Labour in mean favourability scores from the British Election Study in May.
Green voting intention is enormously suppressed by tactical considerations.
If the tactical voting ends, Labour are in trouble.
YouGov have published a ranked preference poll showing nearly half the population would rank Reform UK dead last.
Voters need a system that records our full political views. We need regular communication of our loathing of far-right politics so that media understand they appal us when they pander.
Voters need a system that records our full political views. We need regular communication of our loathing of far-right politics so that media understand they appal us when they pander.
October 16, 2025 at 6:20 AM
YouGov have published a ranked preference poll showing nearly half the population would rank Reform UK dead last.
Voters need a system that records our full political views. We need regular communication of our loathing of far-right politics so that media understand they appal us when they pander.
Voters need a system that records our full political views. We need regular communication of our loathing of far-right politics so that media understand they appal us when they pander.
October 14, 2025 at 10:50 PM
They are the most unpopular party
October 14, 2025 at 10:48 PM
They are the most unpopular party
Wrong!! Educate yourself.
There's a lot of people who think it's ok to leave lucrative drug markets in the hands of violent criminal gangs that recruit children to carry out their work. That is the madness here.
There's a lot of people who think it's ok to leave lucrative drug markets in the hands of violent criminal gangs that recruit children to carry out their work. That is the madness here.
October 14, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Wrong!! Educate yourself.
There's a lot of people who think it's ok to leave lucrative drug markets in the hands of violent criminal gangs that recruit children to carry out their work. That is the madness here.
There's a lot of people who think it's ok to leave lucrative drug markets in the hands of violent criminal gangs that recruit children to carry out their work. That is the madness here.