Evan Schwarten
@evanschwarten.bsky.social
Director @DemosAU, delivering accurate and reliable polling and market research.
Reposted by Evan Schwarten
For today's blog post, I looked at the recent DemosAU MRP. We really don't know a lot about how preferences would flow in races where One Nation are in the top two - but if they are polling in the high teens and the Coalition vote collapses, they could win a bunch of seats #auspol
How would the One Nation surge translate into seats?
There has been a clear trend in recent federal polling – One Nation has been gaining ground, seemingly at the expense of the Coalition. We’ve now reached a point where One Nation are re…
www.tallyroom.com.au
December 4, 2025 at 10:41 PM
For today's blog post, I looked at the recent DemosAU MRP. We really don't know a lot about how preferences would flow in races where One Nation are in the top two - but if they are polling in the high teens and the Coalition vote collapses, they could win a bunch of seats #auspol
Reposted by Evan Schwarten
🚨 FIRST ON 6 NEWS: New polling from DemosAU shows the Coalition holding its lead in Victoria, while Brad Battin has increased his standing as preferred premier
The Greens are just 7% behind Labor in statewide upper house polling, while One Nation has risen from 2% to 11% since the last election
The Greens are just 7% behind Labor in statewide upper house polling, while One Nation has risen from 2% to 11% since the last election
November 5, 2025 at 5:06 AM
🚨 FIRST ON 6 NEWS: New polling from DemosAU shows the Coalition holding its lead in Victoria, while Brad Battin has increased his standing as preferred premier
The Greens are just 7% behind Labor in statewide upper house polling, while One Nation has risen from 2% to 11% since the last election
The Greens are just 7% behind Labor in statewide upper house polling, while One Nation has risen from 2% to 11% since the last election
Does Australia need more federal MPs?
The growth in population since the 80s suggests we probably do, but Australians currently aren't convinced.
demosau.com/news/does-fe...
The growth in population since the 80s suggests we probably do, but Australians currently aren't convinced.
demosau.com/news/does-fe...
Does Federal Parliament need more MPs?
Less than a quarter of Australians would support increasing the number of MPs in federal parliament, despite claims electorate population sizes have grown too
demosau.com
July 24, 2025 at 4:56 AM
Does Australia need more federal MPs?
The growth in population since the 80s suggests we probably do, but Australians currently aren't convinced.
demosau.com/news/does-fe...
The growth in population since the 80s suggests we probably do, but Australians currently aren't convinced.
demosau.com/news/does-fe...
Reposted by Evan Schwarten
NEW: Labor is on track for its worst Tasmanian election result in 122 years, with the latest DemosAU poll showing the opposition on 24.7% of the vote
July 13, 2025 at 12:26 AM
NEW: Labor is on track for its worst Tasmanian election result in 122 years, with the latest DemosAU poll showing the opposition on 24.7% of the vote
Reposted by Evan Schwarten
Our poll of Green held Brisbane, Griffith & Ryan shows a tight contest for the 3 seats that will have a big impact on the election result.
PV: LNP 36 (+0.4) Grn 29 (-1.7) ALP 29 (+2.7)
n: 1087
mode: internet panel
date: 7-15 Apr 25
Report + Methodology: demosau.com/news/the-bat...
#auspol
PV: LNP 36 (+0.4) Grn 29 (-1.7) ALP 29 (+2.7)
n: 1087
mode: internet panel
date: 7-15 Apr 25
Report + Methodology: demosau.com/news/the-bat...
#auspol
The Battle for Inner Brisbane - DemosAU
A new poll of Greens-held Brisbane seats points to a series of close contests, with a moderate swing towards Labor at the expense of the minor party and the
demosau.com
April 21, 2025 at 11:29 PM
Our poll of Green held Brisbane, Griffith & Ryan shows a tight contest for the 3 seats that will have a big impact on the election result.
PV: LNP 36 (+0.4) Grn 29 (-1.7) ALP 29 (+2.7)
n: 1087
mode: internet panel
date: 7-15 Apr 25
Report + Methodology: demosau.com/news/the-bat...
#auspol
PV: LNP 36 (+0.4) Grn 29 (-1.7) ALP 29 (+2.7)
n: 1087
mode: internet panel
date: 7-15 Apr 25
Report + Methodology: demosau.com/news/the-bat...
#auspol
Reposted by Evan Schwarten
Which public institutions are trusted the highest to the lowest in Australia?
1. Bureau of Meteorology (net trust 53%)
2. CSIRO (47%)
3. Australian Electoral Commission (42%)
4. Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) (35%)
5. Therapeutic Goods Administration (32%)
1/2
#auspol
1. Bureau of Meteorology (net trust 53%)
2. CSIRO (47%)
3. Australian Electoral Commission (42%)
4. Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) (35%)
5. Therapeutic Goods Administration (32%)
1/2
#auspol
March 25, 2025 at 3:29 AM
Which public institutions are trusted the highest to the lowest in Australia?
1. Bureau of Meteorology (net trust 53%)
2. CSIRO (47%)
3. Australian Electoral Commission (42%)
4. Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) (35%)
5. Therapeutic Goods Administration (32%)
1/2
#auspol
1. Bureau of Meteorology (net trust 53%)
2. CSIRO (47%)
3. Australian Electoral Commission (42%)
4. Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) (35%)
5. Therapeutic Goods Administration (32%)
1/2
#auspol
Reposted by Evan Schwarten
Our Vic poll provides hope for Fed Labor and the State Libs.
The swing against Fed Labor is moderating.
State Libs will be buoyed by Battin's 43-30 Pref Premier lead.
State TPP: L/NP 52-48
Federal TPP: ALP 51-49
Date: 17-21 Mar n=1006
More here: demosau.com/news/victori...
#auspol #vicpol
The swing against Fed Labor is moderating.
State Libs will be buoyed by Battin's 43-30 Pref Premier lead.
State TPP: L/NP 52-48
Federal TPP: ALP 51-49
Date: 17-21 Mar n=1006
More here: demosau.com/news/victori...
#auspol #vicpol
Victorian Poll Shows Swing Against State and Fed Labor
DemosAU has released new Victorian polling today showing a 7% two-party swing against state Labor since the 2022 state election, with Jacinta Allan scoring
demosau.com
March 24, 2025 at 5:43 AM
Our Vic poll provides hope for Fed Labor and the State Libs.
The swing against Fed Labor is moderating.
State Libs will be buoyed by Battin's 43-30 Pref Premier lead.
State TPP: L/NP 52-48
Federal TPP: ALP 51-49
Date: 17-21 Mar n=1006
More here: demosau.com/news/victori...
#auspol #vicpol
The swing against Fed Labor is moderating.
State Libs will be buoyed by Battin's 43-30 Pref Premier lead.
State TPP: L/NP 52-48
Federal TPP: ALP 51-49
Date: 17-21 Mar n=1006
More here: demosau.com/news/victori...
#auspol #vicpol
Our new #DemosAU MRP model shows support for nuclear falls short of 50% in every electorate. demosau.com/news/nuclear...
#auspol #dutton #albo #poll #nuclear
#auspol #dutton #albo #poll #nuclear
Nuclear Polling: Australians Yet to Be Convinced
Overall, the nuclear polling, based on surveys of 3275 Australians between December and February, found 37% of Australians agree with the statement “Nuclear
demosau.com
March 19, 2025 at 3:14 AM
Reposted by Evan Schwarten
DemosAU WA pre-state election poll
TPP: ALP 57 Lib 43
PV: ALP 43 Lib 30 Nat 5 Grn 11 Oth 11
Pref Prem: Cook 47 Mettam 32
WA Right Direction?: Yes 49 No 30
Methodology Statement: demosau.com/wp-content/u... #auspol #waelection
TPP: ALP 57 Lib 43
PV: ALP 43 Lib 30 Nat 5 Grn 11 Oth 11
Pref Prem: Cook 47 Mettam 32
WA Right Direction?: Yes 49 No 30
Methodology Statement: demosau.com/wp-content/u... #auspol #waelection
March 7, 2025 at 1:16 AM
DemosAU WA pre-state election poll
TPP: ALP 57 Lib 43
PV: ALP 43 Lib 30 Nat 5 Grn 11 Oth 11
Pref Prem: Cook 47 Mettam 32
WA Right Direction?: Yes 49 No 30
Methodology Statement: demosau.com/wp-content/u... #auspol #waelection
TPP: ALP 57 Lib 43
PV: ALP 43 Lib 30 Nat 5 Grn 11 Oth 11
Pref Prem: Cook 47 Mettam 32
WA Right Direction?: Yes 49 No 30
Methodology Statement: demosau.com/wp-content/u... #auspol #waelection
1/3 Some interesting pricing from the Bookies here.
The prospect of the Opposition defeating a first term government and winning a majority in its own right is priced at $2.90 to 1, while a the odds of a Labor majority have blow out to $15!
The prospect of the Opposition defeating a first term government and winning a majority in its own right is priced at $2.90 to 1, while a the odds of a Labor majority have blow out to $15!
February 20, 2025 at 2:16 AM
1/3 Some interesting pricing from the Bookies here.
The prospect of the Opposition defeating a first term government and winning a majority in its own right is priced at $2.90 to 1, while a the odds of a Labor majority have blow out to $15!
The prospect of the Opposition defeating a first term government and winning a majority in its own right is priced at $2.90 to 1, while a the odds of a Labor majority have blow out to $15!
Reposted by Evan Schwarten
#DemosAU Qld (state) 54-46 to LNP. LNP 40 ALP 30 Grn 12 ON 10 others 8
Qld federal 53-47 to LNP (-1 since election), similar primaries.
DemosAU also using ON preference shift a la Newspoll.
demosau.com/wp-content/u...
Qld federal 53-47 to LNP (-1 since election), similar primaries.
DemosAU also using ON preference shift a la Newspoll.
demosau.com/wp-content/u...
February 19, 2025 at 11:32 AM
#DemosAU Qld (state) 54-46 to LNP. LNP 40 ALP 30 Grn 12 ON 10 others 8
Qld federal 53-47 to LNP (-1 since election), similar primaries.
DemosAU also using ON preference shift a la Newspoll.
demosau.com/wp-content/u...
Qld federal 53-47 to LNP (-1 since election), similar primaries.
DemosAU also using ON preference shift a la Newspoll.
demosau.com/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Evan Schwarten
Our Qld Federal Poll in the Courier Mail today: LNP 39 (-0.6) ALP 31 (+3.6) Grn 12 (-0.9) ONP 10 (+2.5) Oth 8 (-4.6) TPP: LNP 53-47 (+1.0 to ALP) #auspol #demosau demosau.com/news/queensl...
Queensland Poll shows modest improvement for Labor
The Queensland poll, conducted between February 10 and 14, showed the LNP leading Labor 53-47%, from 54-46% at the last federal poll.
demosau.com
February 19, 2025 at 2:04 AM
Our Qld Federal Poll in the Courier Mail today: LNP 39 (-0.6) ALP 31 (+3.6) Grn 12 (-0.9) ONP 10 (+2.5) Oth 8 (-4.6) TPP: LNP 53-47 (+1.0 to ALP) #auspol #demosau demosau.com/news/queensl...