@emopportunities.bsky.social
EM credit & rates PM. Opportunistic management style with large expertise on restructuring stories. (no investment advice or recommendations, my own view)
Global EM :
Two proprietary EM indicators (>>0 track):
• 1st = global macro risk support
• 2nd = EM-specific risk sentiment
Interesting divergence: EM risk appetite still well above danger zone, while global macro support for EM just dropped sharply.
Python if people asked
Two proprietary EM indicators (>>0 track):
• 1st = global macro risk support
• 2nd = EM-specific risk sentiment
Interesting divergence: EM risk appetite still well above danger zone, while global macro support for EM just dropped sharply.
Python if people asked
November 11, 2025 at 11:25 AM
Global EM :
Two proprietary EM indicators (>>0 track):
• 1st = global macro risk support
• 2nd = EM-specific risk sentiment
Interesting divergence: EM risk appetite still well above danger zone, while global macro support for EM just dropped sharply.
Python if people asked
Two proprietary EM indicators (>>0 track):
• 1st = global macro risk support
• 2nd = EM-specific risk sentiment
Interesting divergence: EM risk appetite still well above danger zone, while global macro support for EM just dropped sharply.
Python if people asked
🇦🇷 Argentina : Here we go. Should be a great day for Argentina holder 😀
October 27, 2025 at 6:20 AM
🇦🇷 Argentina : Here we go. Should be a great day for Argentina holder 😀
🇦🇷 Argentina : Some good news coming from US. Bonds are up 7pts.
September 22, 2025 at 1:31 PM
🇦🇷 Argentina : Some good news coming from US. Bonds are up 7pts.
Global EM: Total return ~10% over the past 6 months. Historically, further upside over the last 25 yrs only came after a global shock.
Risk/reward now feels asymmetric, time to reduce risk or to be selective.
TTR by region (25 yrs):
Risk/reward now feels asymmetric, time to reduce risk or to be selective.
TTR by region (25 yrs):
September 15, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Global EM: Total return ~10% over the past 6 months. Historically, further upside over the last 25 yrs only came after a global shock.
Risk/reward now feels asymmetric, time to reduce risk or to be selective.
TTR by region (25 yrs):
Risk/reward now feels asymmetric, time to reduce risk or to be selective.
TTR by region (25 yrs):
🇹🇳 Tunisia – Big day for this credit. Been long since the early lows, riding the whole curve: 23s, 24s, 26s and finally the 31s starting around 55 cts.
🥳
🥳
September 12, 2025 at 2:24 PM
🇹🇳 Tunisia – Big day for this credit. Been long since the early lows, riding the whole curve: 23s, 24s, 26s and finally the 31s starting around 55 cts.
🥳
🥳
🇻🇪 Venezuela: A bit of newsflow as pressure is rising on Venezuela and Maduro.
August 20, 2025 at 7:55 PM
🇻🇪 Venezuela: A bit of newsflow as pressure is rising on Venezuela and Maduro.
EM Global : EM sov spreads outperforms corpo ones <> DM
2004–07: Sovereigns outperformed on the commodity boom
2010–22: Deficits hurt sovereigns
Since 2022: Fiscal repair + CB credibility = sov tightening cycle
EM sovereigns spreads should continue to outperform corporates.
2004–07: Sovereigns outperformed on the commodity boom
2010–22: Deficits hurt sovereigns
Since 2022: Fiscal repair + CB credibility = sov tightening cycle
EM sovereigns spreads should continue to outperform corporates.
August 20, 2025 at 9:51 AM
EM Global : EM sov spreads outperforms corpo ones <> DM
2004–07: Sovereigns outperformed on the commodity boom
2010–22: Deficits hurt sovereigns
Since 2022: Fiscal repair + CB credibility = sov tightening cycle
EM sovereigns spreads should continue to outperform corporates.
2004–07: Sovereigns outperformed on the commodity boom
2010–22: Deficits hurt sovereigns
Since 2022: Fiscal repair + CB credibility = sov tightening cycle
EM sovereigns spreads should continue to outperform corporates.
🇪🇨 Ecuador : As you know Ecuador has been part of my biggest convictions over the last 2-3years. But today it’s time to say goodbye. My trigger is more about oil price and overall market valuation than the gvt itself.
August 19, 2025 at 2:03 PM
🇪🇨 Ecuador : As you know Ecuador has been part of my biggest convictions over the last 2-3years. But today it’s time to say goodbye. My trigger is more about oil price and overall market valuation than the gvt itself.
Let me clarify: last chart is just 6m rolling em regional normalization on price. Below same chart on spreads.
So what I’m saying is just I’m more cautious about spread duration risk locally.
So what I’m saying is just I’m more cautious about spread duration risk locally.
July 2, 2025 at 9:57 AM
Let me clarify: last chart is just 6m rolling em regional normalization on price. Below same chart on spreads.
So what I’m saying is just I’m more cautious about spread duration risk locally.
So what I’m saying is just I’m more cautious about spread duration risk locally.
Global EM: I reduced Angola and Egypt exposure yst and today. Closed Zambia 53s.
Imo we saw a rebound as mkt was running after papers due to light positioning. Except if we have strong inflows, dynamic should drop.
We are trading at 2-3 z score so prefer to reduce risk.
Imo we saw a rebound as mkt was running after papers due to light positioning. Except if we have strong inflows, dynamic should drop.
We are trading at 2-3 z score so prefer to reduce risk.
July 2, 2025 at 9:14 AM
Global EM: I reduced Angola and Egypt exposure yst and today. Closed Zambia 53s.
Imo we saw a rebound as mkt was running after papers due to light positioning. Except if we have strong inflows, dynamic should drop.
We are trading at 2-3 z score so prefer to reduce risk.
Imo we saw a rebound as mkt was running after papers due to light positioning. Except if we have strong inflows, dynamic should drop.
We are trading at 2-3 z score so prefer to reduce risk.
🇸🇳 Sénégal : Bonds are finally starting to reprice. It could rebound but I still need to see more value on Senegal before to step in especially with a 28s at 79cts…
A comparison with Angola. Both are trading at c.12% (LE) and, we are still waiting for Senegal audits.
A comparison with Angola. Both are trading at c.12% (LE) and, we are still waiting for Senegal audits.
June 30, 2025 at 12:50 PM
🇸🇳 Sénégal : Bonds are finally starting to reprice. It could rebound but I still need to see more value on Senegal before to step in especially with a 28s at 79cts…
A comparison with Angola. Both are trading at c.12% (LE) and, we are still waiting for Senegal audits.
A comparison with Angola. Both are trading at c.12% (LE) and, we are still waiting for Senegal audits.
🇲🇿 Mozambique : Not a bad news to finish the week.
June 27, 2025 at 6:55 AM
🇲🇿 Mozambique : Not a bad news to finish the week.
🇳🇬 BOIFIN : For people who are following me you know how I was supportive about this beautiful name. But at 101.5 cash price and 6.45% (from 13.5%) it’s time to say goodbye and to improve the liquidity of the fund.
(I know it’s € vs $ papers but just to illustrate the trade)
(I know it’s € vs $ papers but just to illustrate the trade)
June 16, 2025 at 10:22 AM
🇳🇬 BOIFIN : For people who are following me you know how I was supportive about this beautiful name. But at 101.5 cash price and 6.45% (from 13.5%) it’s time to say goodbye and to improve the liquidity of the fund.
(I know it’s € vs $ papers but just to illustrate the trade)
(I know it’s € vs $ papers but just to illustrate the trade)
Global EM : Always funny to observe in real time the famous « corpo resilience » (vs sov) arguing by all EM corpo PM.
Metinvest 29 is priced 79.5
Just saw ppl sold it at…75
It’s like Private Equity/Debt, don’t confuse resilience and illiquidity 😉
(Teasing mood)
Metinvest 29 is priced 79.5
Just saw ppl sold it at…75
It’s like Private Equity/Debt, don’t confuse resilience and illiquidity 😉
(Teasing mood)
May 28, 2025 at 9:43 AM
Global EM : Always funny to observe in real time the famous « corpo resilience » (vs sov) arguing by all EM corpo PM.
Metinvest 29 is priced 79.5
Just saw ppl sold it at…75
It’s like Private Equity/Debt, don’t confuse resilience and illiquidity 😉
(Teasing mood)
Metinvest 29 is priced 79.5
Just saw ppl sold it at…75
It’s like Private Equity/Debt, don’t confuse resilience and illiquidity 😉
(Teasing mood)
🇹🇷 Turkey : Oups they did it again!!! As usual the best market timers when they have to issue bonds. Track record remains on track.
May 21, 2025 at 8:16 PM
🇹🇷 Turkey : Oups they did it again!!! As usual the best market timers when they have to issue bonds. Track record remains on track.
Global EM: Here we go again HY spreads are trading at 20bp from the lows
Reduced a lot of risk recently moving into the short part of curves +cash and starting to rebuild CDS positions. I’m still not holding rates outright
Feel consensus is cautious but not sure positioning is
Reduced a lot of risk recently moving into the short part of curves +cash and starting to rebuild CDS positions. I’m still not holding rates outright
Feel consensus is cautious but not sure positioning is
May 14, 2025 at 8:46 PM
Global EM: Here we go again HY spreads are trading at 20bp from the lows
Reduced a lot of risk recently moving into the short part of curves +cash and starting to rebuild CDS positions. I’m still not holding rates outright
Feel consensus is cautious but not sure positioning is
Reduced a lot of risk recently moving into the short part of curves +cash and starting to rebuild CDS positions. I’m still not holding rates outright
Feel consensus is cautious but not sure positioning is
🇪🇨 Ecuador : I didn’t know Gonzales has been elected
April 9, 2025 at 12:37 PM
🇪🇨 Ecuador : I didn’t know Gonzales has been elected
Global EM :
Sold 15%-20% of my CDS. Added a bit on Angola-Nigeria-Egypt on the LE part of the curve.
Still reluctant to step-in into Senegal even if LE low cash price start to be interesting.
Value has been created :
Sold 15%-20% of my CDS. Added a bit on Angola-Nigeria-Egypt on the LE part of the curve.
Still reluctant to step-in into Senegal even if LE low cash price start to be interesting.
Value has been created :
April 4, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Global EM :
Sold 15%-20% of my CDS. Added a bit on Angola-Nigeria-Egypt on the LE part of the curve.
Still reluctant to step-in into Senegal even if LE low cash price start to be interesting.
Value has been created :
Sold 15%-20% of my CDS. Added a bit on Angola-Nigeria-Egypt on the LE part of the curve.
Still reluctant to step-in into Senegal even if LE low cash price start to be interesting.
Value has been created :
Asia : a clear focus on Asia
April 3, 2025 at 5:39 AM
Asia : a clear focus on Asia
Hi,
Just to understand the view, are you playing a short term rebound/building position or do you you think market is too worried about tariffs noises?
Tks
Just to understand the view, are you playing a short term rebound/building position or do you you think market is too worried about tariffs noises?
Tks
April 2, 2025 at 7:38 AM
Hi,
Just to understand the view, are you playing a short term rebound/building position or do you you think market is too worried about tariffs noises?
Tks
Just to understand the view, are you playing a short term rebound/building position or do you you think market is too worried about tariffs noises?
Tks
Sorry about that… it’s over. But you have Oman 31 at 5.5% if you want as an alternative
February 6, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Sorry about that… it’s over. But you have Oman 31 at 5.5% if you want as an alternative
🇪🇬 Egypt : After this crazy new issue with decent IPT tightening, it’s time for me to be out of Egypt. Let’s wait for better levels.
January 28, 2025 at 4:45 PM
🇪🇬 Egypt : After this crazy new issue with decent IPT tightening, it’s time for me to be out of Egypt. Let’s wait for better levels.
🇹🇳 Tunisia : You can’t be disappointed by Kaïs.
January 28, 2025 at 4:14 PM
🇹🇳 Tunisia : You can’t be disappointed by Kaïs.
Global EM : Think it’s time to start to leave HY boat. Market is becoming to complaisant with Distressed/B names.
Frontier Market Spreads :
Frontier Market Spreads :
January 8, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Global EM : Think it’s time to start to leave HY boat. Market is becoming to complaisant with Distressed/B names.
Frontier Market Spreads :
Frontier Market Spreads :
🇿🇦 SA : Bought ZAR this morning at the open. Short term bet. 🤞
November 25, 2024 at 9:05 PM
🇿🇦 SA : Bought ZAR this morning at the open. Short term bet. 🤞