@emopportunities.bsky.social
EM credit & rates PM. Opportunistic management style with large expertise on restructuring stories. (no investment advice or recommendations, my own view)
Yes fully agree.
Here I’m just building a position (so far tiny).
Here I’m just building a position (so far tiny).
November 14, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Yes fully agree.
Here I’m just building a position (so far tiny).
Here I’m just building a position (so far tiny).
🇸🇳 Senegal : *IMF, WORLD BANK WORKING ON FINALIZING SENEGAL'S DEBT ANALYSIS
I reload a bit on Wednesday tbh. Still have decent room to add.
I reload a bit on Wednesday tbh. Still have decent room to add.
🇸🇳 Sénégal : after being out of the name for long time. Just started to build a position this morning benefiting from volatility. Not a high conviction trade but some good willingness supporting by an IMF open minded. Sizing matters.
November 14, 2025 at 9:22 AM
🇸🇳 Senegal : *IMF, WORLD BANK WORKING ON FINALIZING SENEGAL'S DEBT ANALYSIS
I reload a bit on Wednesday tbh. Still have decent room to add.
I reload a bit on Wednesday tbh. Still have decent room to add.
Global EM :
Two proprietary EM indicators (>>0 track):
• 1st = global macro risk support
• 2nd = EM-specific risk sentiment
Interesting divergence: EM risk appetite still well above danger zone, while global macro support for EM just dropped sharply.
Python if people asked
Two proprietary EM indicators (>>0 track):
• 1st = global macro risk support
• 2nd = EM-specific risk sentiment
Interesting divergence: EM risk appetite still well above danger zone, while global macro support for EM just dropped sharply.
Python if people asked
November 11, 2025 at 11:25 AM
Global EM :
Two proprietary EM indicators (>>0 track):
• 1st = global macro risk support
• 2nd = EM-specific risk sentiment
Interesting divergence: EM risk appetite still well above danger zone, while global macro support for EM just dropped sharply.
Python if people asked
Two proprietary EM indicators (>>0 track):
• 1st = global macro risk support
• 2nd = EM-specific risk sentiment
Interesting divergence: EM risk appetite still well above danger zone, while global macro support for EM just dropped sharply.
Python if people asked
🇸🇳 Sénégal : after being out of the name for long time. Just started to build a position this morning benefiting from volatility. Not a high conviction trade but some good willingness supporting by an IMF open minded. Sizing matters.
November 7, 2025 at 9:57 AM
🇸🇳 Sénégal : after being out of the name for long time. Just started to build a position this morning benefiting from volatility. Not a high conviction trade but some good willingness supporting by an IMF open minded. Sizing matters.
It’s depend which kind of EM segment you are looking at. Mainstream I would say classical ones (jpm, ms,…). Frontier markets : Tellmier, Banctrust,…
October 27, 2025 at 6:22 AM
It’s depend which kind of EM segment you are looking at. Mainstream I would say classical ones (jpm, ms,…). Frontier markets : Tellmier, Banctrust,…
🇦🇷 Argentina : Here we go. Should be a great day for Argentina holder 😀
October 27, 2025 at 6:20 AM
🇦🇷 Argentina : Here we go. Should be a great day for Argentina holder 😀
IMF takeaways : cautious but a mood of hope with no euphoria. Everyone know about poor valuation but need to sell asset class to survive.
Still don’t like Senegal, though an SLA looks possible. Venezuela still comfortable with.
Still don’t like Senegal, though an SLA looks possible. Venezuela still comfortable with.
October 20, 2025 at 10:41 AM
IMF takeaways : cautious but a mood of hope with no euphoria. Everyone know about poor valuation but need to sell asset class to survive.
Still don’t like Senegal, though an SLA looks possible. Venezuela still comfortable with.
Still don’t like Senegal, though an SLA looks possible. Venezuela still comfortable with.
IMF meetings start today. Let’s see if anything truly insightful comes out of them.
October 14, 2025 at 1:14 PM
IMF meetings start today. Let’s see if anything truly insightful comes out of them.
Just reload at 50.75 for color. We are quasi back to the low and in the meantime we have had the US support.
October 1, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Just reload at 50.75 for color. We are quasi back to the low and in the meantime we have had the US support.
To be transparent I closed the majority of my exposure at 58.625 (62 and 55.25).
Volatility should remain and should offer interesting opportunities imho.
Volatility should remain and should offer interesting opportunities imho.
September 30, 2025 at 7:33 PM
To be transparent I closed the majority of my exposure at 58.625 (62 and 55.25).
Volatility should remain and should offer interesting opportunities imho.
Volatility should remain and should offer interesting opportunities imho.
Tbh, corporate investors crack me up:
• “Corps are more resilient” → nah, just illiquid
• “They lag because of the sovereign cap”
• “They blow up because gov interference”
Sounds like my 6-year-old searching for excuses 😂
• “Corps are more resilient” → nah, just illiquid
• “They lag because of the sovereign cap”
• “They blow up because gov interference”
Sounds like my 6-year-old searching for excuses 😂
September 29, 2025 at 8:30 AM
Tbh, corporate investors crack me up:
• “Corps are more resilient” → nah, just illiquid
• “They lag because of the sovereign cap”
• “They blow up because gov interference”
Sounds like my 6-year-old searching for excuses 😂
• “Corps are more resilient” → nah, just illiquid
• “They lag because of the sovereign cap”
• “They blow up because gov interference”
Sounds like my 6-year-old searching for excuses 😂
Close to have Brady bonds
September 24, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Close to have Brady bonds
🇦🇷 Argentina : Buenos holders looking Argentina bonds
a man in a suit and tie is asking " what 's going on here "
ALT: a man in a suit and tie is asking " what 's going on here "
media.tenor.com
September 24, 2025 at 12:33 PM
🇦🇷 Argentina : Buenos holders looking Argentina bonds
🇦🇷 Argentina : Some good news coming from US. Bonds are up 7pts.
September 22, 2025 at 1:31 PM
🇦🇷 Argentina : Some good news coming from US. Bonds are up 7pts.
🇦🇷 Argentina: Added a second tranche at 48.4 on this latest leg lower, still capacity to increase.
Interesting how the market eagerly chased every 0.5pt dip around 70, yet is now just as eager to unload at any price.
Interesting how the market eagerly chased every 0.5pt dip around 70, yet is now just as eager to unload at any price.
🇦🇷 Argentina: sharp wake-up for bondholders. I cut most of my exposure Friday on positioning & risk/reward (still have a bit of Buenos). Bonds opened -6pts, so I picked up Arg 35s at 56.2 (still have lot of room to add). Good luck to everyone
September 18, 2025 at 3:22 PM
🇦🇷 Argentina: Added a second tranche at 48.4 on this latest leg lower, still capacity to increase.
Interesting how the market eagerly chased every 0.5pt dip around 70, yet is now just as eager to unload at any price.
Interesting how the market eagerly chased every 0.5pt dip around 70, yet is now just as eager to unload at any price.
The best contrarian quant model in EM. Short IMF mood
September 16, 2025 at 2:24 PM
The best contrarian quant model in EM. Short IMF mood
All my PM colleagues (€IG as €HY) panic over France slipping from AA- to A+, while I’m chilling on a comfy B- cushion. Different leagues of stress.
a man in a suit and tie is sitting in a chair with his hands in the air
ALT: a man in a suit and tie is sitting in a chair with his hands in the air
media.tenor.com
September 16, 2025 at 10:41 AM
All my PM colleagues (€IG as €HY) panic over France slipping from AA- to A+, while I’m chilling on a comfy B- cushion. Different leagues of stress.
Global EM: Total return ~10% over the past 6 months. Historically, further upside over the last 25 yrs only came after a global shock.
Risk/reward now feels asymmetric, time to reduce risk or to be selective.
TTR by region (25 yrs):
Risk/reward now feels asymmetric, time to reduce risk or to be selective.
TTR by region (25 yrs):
September 15, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Global EM: Total return ~10% over the past 6 months. Historically, further upside over the last 25 yrs only came after a global shock.
Risk/reward now feels asymmetric, time to reduce risk or to be selective.
TTR by region (25 yrs):
Risk/reward now feels asymmetric, time to reduce risk or to be selective.
TTR by region (25 yrs):
🇹🇳 Tunisia – Big day for this credit. Been long since the early lows, riding the whole curve: 23s, 24s, 26s and finally the 31s starting around 55 cts.
🥳
🥳
September 12, 2025 at 2:24 PM
🇹🇳 Tunisia – Big day for this credit. Been long since the early lows, riding the whole curve: 23s, 24s, 26s and finally the 31s starting around 55 cts.
🥳
🥳
Luck is a dividend of sweat 😉
To be fair it’s 11-12% (carry excl.) without the tender. Obviously I’m enjoying the extra 5-6%.
To be fair it’s 11-12% (carry excl.) without the tender. Obviously I’m enjoying the extra 5-6%.
September 10, 2025 at 11:05 PM
Luck is a dividend of sweat 😉
To be fair it’s 11-12% (carry excl.) without the tender. Obviously I’m enjoying the extra 5-6%.
To be fair it’s 11-12% (carry excl.) without the tender. Obviously I’m enjoying the extra 5-6%.
🇨🇴 Colombia: +17% since then.
Today’s €4.1bn 3-part deal reportedly drew ~€22bn demand. Liability mgmt well timed, but with spreads now ~325bp, valuation no longer looks cheap.
Today’s €4.1bn 3-part deal reportedly drew ~€22bn demand. Liability mgmt well timed, but with spreads now ~325bp, valuation no longer looks cheap.
🇨🇴 Colombia : Yes deficit, yes politics but :
- It’s already priced in as we are trading as a B+/BB- so who cares?
- 8.7% yield on the LE (decent buffer) + one of the last wide spread
- Market positioning is ok (even if a bit OW)
- No big wall of maturity coming (€/$)
- It’s already priced in as we are trading as a B+/BB- so who cares?
- 8.7% yield on the LE (decent buffer) + one of the last wide spread
- Market positioning is ok (even if a bit OW)
- No big wall of maturity coming (€/$)
September 10, 2025 at 2:59 PM
🇨🇴 Colombia: +17% since then.
Today’s €4.1bn 3-part deal reportedly drew ~€22bn demand. Liability mgmt well timed, but with spreads now ~325bp, valuation no longer looks cheap.
Today’s €4.1bn 3-part deal reportedly drew ~€22bn demand. Liability mgmt well timed, but with spreads now ~325bp, valuation no longer looks cheap.
🇦🇷 Argentina: sharp wake-up for bondholders. I cut most of my exposure Friday on positioning & risk/reward (still have a bit of Buenos). Bonds opened -6pts, so I picked up Arg 35s at 56.2 (still have lot of room to add). Good luck to everyone
September 8, 2025 at 10:53 AM
🇦🇷 Argentina: sharp wake-up for bondholders. I cut most of my exposure Friday on positioning & risk/reward (still have a bit of Buenos). Bonds opened -6pts, so I picked up Arg 35s at 56.2 (still have lot of room to add). Good luck to everyone
🇻🇪 Venezuela: A bit of newsflow as pressure is rising on Venezuela and Maduro.
August 20, 2025 at 7:55 PM
🇻🇪 Venezuela: A bit of newsflow as pressure is rising on Venezuela and Maduro.
EM Global : EM sov spreads outperforms corpo ones <> DM
2004–07: Sovereigns outperformed on the commodity boom
2010–22: Deficits hurt sovereigns
Since 2022: Fiscal repair + CB credibility = sov tightening cycle
EM sovereigns spreads should continue to outperform corporates.
2004–07: Sovereigns outperformed on the commodity boom
2010–22: Deficits hurt sovereigns
Since 2022: Fiscal repair + CB credibility = sov tightening cycle
EM sovereigns spreads should continue to outperform corporates.
August 20, 2025 at 9:51 AM
EM Global : EM sov spreads outperforms corpo ones <> DM
2004–07: Sovereigns outperformed on the commodity boom
2010–22: Deficits hurt sovereigns
Since 2022: Fiscal repair + CB credibility = sov tightening cycle
EM sovereigns spreads should continue to outperform corporates.
2004–07: Sovereigns outperformed on the commodity boom
2010–22: Deficits hurt sovereigns
Since 2022: Fiscal repair + CB credibility = sov tightening cycle
EM sovereigns spreads should continue to outperform corporates.