Post shutdown, we now have a full swath of updated #jobsday charts!

Huge shoutout to @joe-fast.bsky.social and Emma Cohn for their excellent data pulling and charting and @jenxabella.bsky.social for web expertise.

For more @epi.org analysis, please visit: www.epi.org/indicators/u...

#EconSky

In sum, the delayed #jobsreport for September is solid. Job growth was decent while prime-age EPOPs held steady. Concerning are job losses in 2 of 3 summer months—the first such stretch since early 2020—and the recent slow rise in unemployment, particularly for Black and young workers.
#EconSky

One of my favorite measures of the labor market in the household survey is the prime-age employment-to-population ratio because it looks at the heart of the labor market, those most likely to be working—not in school/retired—and tells us the share of those with a job. My read says it remains strong.

In addition to Black unemployment, I've been keeping my eye on the unemployment rate for young workers. With depressed hires, I'm concerned about the ability for young workers to break into the labor market. Their unemployment rate has been steadily rising for much of the last 2 1/2 years.
#EconSky

The household survey is a useful read on the labor market for various demographic groups. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, its highest since 2021. While a more volatile series, the data show high Black unemployment, holding steady at 7.5% in September, and 1.5 ppts higher than May.
#EconSky

Federal cuts continue to cost jobs as federal employment fell another 3k in Sept. Federal employment is down 97k since January. The full extent of the federal job losses won't be seen until we get data for October after upwards of 100k additional federal workers left payrolls after Sept 30.
#EconSky

Job gains were strongest in leisure and hospitality and health care while there were losses in transportation and warehousing and professional and business services. Manufacturing, mining, and the federal government also registered losses. On net, 119k jobs added in September.
#EconSky #NumbersDay

Even with the faster than expected growth in payroll employment for September, downward revisions for July and August meant that combined July+Aug job growth was 33k less than originally reported. Over the last three months, job growth averaged 62k with small losses in both June and August.
#EconSky

In the meantime, check out the latest #economic data from the states on unemployment insurance claims. bsky.app/profile/elis...
#NumbersDay #EconSky

For additional context on the value of the UI claims data when the typically comprehensive, trustworthy, and timely jobs day data is unavailable, please see: www.epi.org/blog/amid-th...

And for the latest @epi.org UI charts and data, please visit: www.epi.org/indicators/u...

#EconSky #NumbersDay

Federal layoffs, funding cuts, and the shutdown have yet to impact regular UI state claims at the national level, but the national numbers mask considerable labor market weakness in the DC metro area. The latest national data indicates 238k initial claims and 1.7 million continued claims.
#EconSky

Initial UI claims by federal workers for the week ending Nov 8 were lower than the prior week but still far higher than claims made in March. Over 5k federal workers applied for UI last week. These numbers will continue to fall as federal workers return to work (and eventually receive their pay).

For additional context on the value of the UI claims data when the typically comprehensive, trustworthy, and timely jobs day data is unavailable, please see:
www.epi.org/blog/amid-th...

For the latest @epi.org charts on unemployment insurance claims, please visit www.epi.org/indicators/u...

Shoutout to @joe-fast.bsky.social for processing the state data without an official report from DOL during the government shutdown. Minor imputation required for a state with delayed reporting.

Federal layoffs, funding cuts, and the shutdown have yet to impact regular UI state claims at the national level, but the national numbers mask considerable labor market weakness in the DC metro area. The latest national data indicates 216k initial claims and 1.7 million continued claims.
#EconSky

Continued UI claims for federal workers were particularly acute in the DC metro area. Continued claims rose for federal workers in Maryland and DC by over 1000% compared to the same period last year. #EconSky

On top of the thousands of federal workers who filed for unemployment insurance after September 30, when massive numbers of federal workers left payrolls after layoffs or because they were furloughed, an additional 7,000+ federal workers filed for unemployment insurance last week. #NumbersDay

For the latest @epi.org charts on unemployment insurance claims, please visit www.epi.org/indicators/u...

Shoutout to @joe-fast.bsky.social for processing the state data without an official report from DOL during the government shutdown. Minor imputations required for states with delayed reporting.