Elise Gould
@elisegould.bsky.social
Economist, bike commuter, ultimate frisbee player. Studying wages, jobs, and economic inequality. Striving to be part of the solution.
https://www.epi.org/people/elise-gould/
https://www.epi.org/people/elise-gould/
In sum, the delayed #jobsreport for September is solid. Job growth was decent while prime-age EPOPs held steady. Concerning are job losses in 2 of 3 summer months—the first such stretch since early 2020—and the recent slow rise in unemployment, particularly for Black and young workers.
#EconSky
#EconSky
November 20, 2025 at 3:15 PM
In sum, the delayed #jobsreport for September is solid. Job growth was decent while prime-age EPOPs held steady. Concerning are job losses in 2 of 3 summer months—the first such stretch since early 2020—and the recent slow rise in unemployment, particularly for Black and young workers.
#EconSky
#EconSky
One of my favorite measures of the labor market in the household survey is the prime-age employment-to-population ratio because it looks at the heart of the labor market, those most likely to be working—not in school/retired—and tells us the share of those with a job. My read says it remains strong.
November 20, 2025 at 2:55 PM
One of my favorite measures of the labor market in the household survey is the prime-age employment-to-population ratio because it looks at the heart of the labor market, those most likely to be working—not in school/retired—and tells us the share of those with a job. My read says it remains strong.
In addition to Black unemployment, I've been keeping my eye on the unemployment rate for young workers. With depressed hires, I'm concerned about the ability for young workers to break into the labor market. Their unemployment rate has been steadily rising for much of the last 2 1/2 years.
#EconSky
#EconSky
November 20, 2025 at 2:36 PM
In addition to Black unemployment, I've been keeping my eye on the unemployment rate for young workers. With depressed hires, I'm concerned about the ability for young workers to break into the labor market. Their unemployment rate has been steadily rising for much of the last 2 1/2 years.
#EconSky
#EconSky
The household survey is a useful read on the labor market for various demographic groups. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, its highest since 2021. While a more volatile series, the data show high Black unemployment, holding steady at 7.5% in September, and 1.5 ppts higher than May.
#EconSky
#EconSky
November 20, 2025 at 2:28 PM
The household survey is a useful read on the labor market for various demographic groups. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, its highest since 2021. While a more volatile series, the data show high Black unemployment, holding steady at 7.5% in September, and 1.5 ppts higher than May.
#EconSky
#EconSky
Federal cuts continue to cost jobs as federal employment fell another 3k in Sept. Federal employment is down 97k since January. The full extent of the federal job losses won't be seen until we get data for October after upwards of 100k additional federal workers left payrolls after Sept 30.
#EconSky
#EconSky
November 20, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Federal cuts continue to cost jobs as federal employment fell another 3k in Sept. Federal employment is down 97k since January. The full extent of the federal job losses won't be seen until we get data for October after upwards of 100k additional federal workers left payrolls after Sept 30.
#EconSky
#EconSky
Job gains were strongest in leisure and hospitality and health care while there were losses in transportation and warehousing and professional and business services. Manufacturing, mining, and the federal government also registered losses. On net, 119k jobs added in September.
#EconSky #NumbersDay
#EconSky #NumbersDay
November 20, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Job gains were strongest in leisure and hospitality and health care while there were losses in transportation and warehousing and professional and business services. Manufacturing, mining, and the federal government also registered losses. On net, 119k jobs added in September.
#EconSky #NumbersDay
#EconSky #NumbersDay
Even with the faster than expected growth in payroll employment for September, downward revisions for July and August meant that combined July+Aug job growth was 33k less than originally reported. Over the last three months, job growth averaged 62k with small losses in both June and August.
#EconSky
#EconSky
November 20, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Even with the faster than expected growth in payroll employment for September, downward revisions for July and August meant that combined July+Aug job growth was 33k less than originally reported. Over the last three months, job growth averaged 62k with small losses in both June and August.
#EconSky
#EconSky
Finally, the first #JobsDay since the shutdown! The latest data out today is for September before the shutdown began on October 1.
Highlights:
- payroll employment up 119k for Sept while August change was revised down to below zero
- unemployment rate ticked up 3 months in a row to 4.4%
#EconSky
Highlights:
- payroll employment up 119k for Sept while August change was revised down to below zero
- unemployment rate ticked up 3 months in a row to 4.4%
#EconSky
November 20, 2025 at 1:42 PM
More data release dates provided today at www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
After tomorrow's release of September 2025 #Jobs data, I'll be looking forward to #JOLTS on December 9 and Jobs on Dec 16. These will be highly unusual with catchup data on the establishment side.
#NumbersDay #EconSky @epi.org
After tomorrow's release of September 2025 #Jobs data, I'll be looking forward to #JOLTS on December 9 and Jobs on Dec 16. These will be highly unusual with catchup data on the establishment side.
#NumbersDay #EconSky @epi.org
November 19, 2025 at 7:13 PM
More data release dates provided today at www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
After tomorrow's release of September 2025 #Jobs data, I'll be looking forward to #JOLTS on December 9 and Jobs on Dec 16. These will be highly unusual with catchup data on the establishment side.
#NumbersDay #EconSky @epi.org
After tomorrow's release of September 2025 #Jobs data, I'll be looking forward to #JOLTS on December 9 and Jobs on Dec 16. These will be highly unusual with catchup data on the establishment side.
#NumbersDay #EconSky @epi.org
BLS operations are back up! Release dates have been set for some missing reports. The next #jobsday will be Thursday, November 20 where we will get to see data for September 2025.
#NumbersDay #EconSky
#NumbersDay #EconSky
November 14, 2025 at 8:51 PM
BLS operations are back up! Release dates have been set for some missing reports. The next #jobsday will be Thursday, November 20 where we will get to see data for September 2025.
#NumbersDay #EconSky
#NumbersDay #EconSky
Federal layoffs, funding cuts, and the shutdown have yet to impact regular UI state claims at the national level, but the national numbers mask considerable labor market weakness in the DC metro area. The latest national data indicates 238k initial claims and 1.7 million continued claims.
#EconSky
#EconSky
November 13, 2025 at 11:22 PM
Federal layoffs, funding cuts, and the shutdown have yet to impact regular UI state claims at the national level, but the national numbers mask considerable labor market weakness in the DC metro area. The latest national data indicates 238k initial claims and 1.7 million continued claims.
#EconSky
#EconSky
Initial UI claims by federal workers for the week ending Nov 8 were lower than the prior week but still far higher than claims made in March. Over 5k federal workers applied for UI last week. These numbers will continue to fall as federal workers return to work (and eventually receive their pay).
November 13, 2025 at 11:19 PM
Initial UI claims by federal workers for the week ending Nov 8 were lower than the prior week but still far higher than claims made in March. Over 5k federal workers applied for UI last week. These numbers will continue to fall as federal workers return to work (and eventually receive their pay).
The large uptick in federal unemployment insurance claims in the initial spate of layoffs last spring have been overshadowed nearly 10 fold by the UI claims of federal workers after the end of the fiscal year, in the longest ever government shutdown.
#NumbersDay #EconSky
#NumbersDay #EconSky
November 13, 2025 at 11:13 PM
The large uptick in federal unemployment insurance claims in the initial spate of layoffs last spring have been overshadowed nearly 10 fold by the UI claims of federal workers after the end of the fiscal year, in the longest ever government shutdown.
#NumbersDay #EconSky
#NumbersDay #EconSky
Federal layoffs, funding cuts, and the shutdown have yet to impact regular UI state claims at the national level, but the national numbers mask considerable labor market weakness in the DC metro area. The latest national data indicates 216k initial claims and 1.7 million continued claims.
#EconSky
#EconSky
November 6, 2025 at 10:24 PM
Federal layoffs, funding cuts, and the shutdown have yet to impact regular UI state claims at the national level, but the national numbers mask considerable labor market weakness in the DC metro area. The latest national data indicates 216k initial claims and 1.7 million continued claims.
#EconSky
#EconSky
Continued UI claims for federal workers were particularly acute in the DC metro area. Continued claims rose for federal workers in Maryland and DC by over 1000% compared to the same period last year. #EconSky
November 6, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Continued UI claims for federal workers were particularly acute in the DC metro area. Continued claims rose for federal workers in Maryland and DC by over 1000% compared to the same period last year. #EconSky
On top of the thousands of federal workers who filed for unemployment insurance after September 30, when massive numbers of federal workers left payrolls after layoffs or because they were furloughed, an additional 7,000+ federal workers filed for unemployment insurance last week. #NumbersDay
November 6, 2025 at 10:14 PM
On top of the thousands of federal workers who filed for unemployment insurance after September 30, when massive numbers of federal workers left payrolls after layoffs or because they were furloughed, an additional 7,000+ federal workers filed for unemployment insurance last week. #NumbersDay
Tomorrow marks the first time the federal government has failed to release a jobs report two months in a row. Without these data, unemployment insurance claims provide the most up-to-date read on the labor market. As the shutdown drags on, continued UI claims by federal workers hits 30k.
#EconSky
#EconSky
November 6, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Tomorrow marks the first time the federal government has failed to release a jobs report two months in a row. Without these data, unemployment insurance claims provide the most up-to-date read on the labor market. As the shutdown drags on, continued UI claims by federal workers hits 30k.
#EconSky
#EconSky
Federal layoffs, funding cuts, and the shutdown have yet to impact regular UI state claims at the national level, but the national numbers mask labor market weakness in the DC metro area along with notable increases in continued claims in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Oregon.
October 24, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Federal layoffs, funding cuts, and the shutdown have yet to impact regular UI state claims at the national level, but the national numbers mask labor market weakness in the DC metro area along with notable increases in continued claims in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Oregon.
Federal layoffs, furloughs, and subsequent UI claims for federal workers are felt most acutely in DC and Maryland, with continued claims up 1,132% and 954%, respectively, compared to the same week last year. These are constructed with 4-week moving averages to smooth volatility.
#NumbersDay #EconSky
#NumbersDay #EconSky
October 24, 2025 at 2:53 PM
Federal layoffs, furloughs, and subsequent UI claims for federal workers are felt most acutely in DC and Maryland, with continued claims up 1,132% and 954%, respectively, compared to the same week last year. These are constructed with 4-week moving averages to smooth volatility.
#NumbersDay #EconSky
#NumbersDay #EconSky
The latest #UIClaims show much higher continued unemployment insurance claims for federal workers, up 270% for the week ending October 11—compared to the same week last year. The growth this year is due to federal layoffs, exacerbated this month by workers leaving federal payrolls and the shutdown.
October 24, 2025 at 2:42 PM
The latest #UIClaims show much higher continued unemployment insurance claims for federal workers, up 270% for the week ending October 11—compared to the same week last year. The growth this year is due to federal layoffs, exacerbated this month by workers leaving federal payrolls and the shutdown.
Without BLS monthly jobs and JOLTS reports, unemployment insurance claims data provide the most up-to-date read on the labor market. As the shutdown continues, initial claims by federal workers shoot up for the third week in a row. Over 10k initial claims reported nationally last week.
#EconSky
#EconSky
October 24, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Without BLS monthly jobs and JOLTS reports, unemployment insurance claims data provide the most up-to-date read on the labor market. As the shutdown continues, initial claims by federal workers shoot up for the third week in a row. Over 10k initial claims reported nationally last week.
#EconSky
#EconSky
Federal claims are reported separately from regular state unemployment insurance programs. Federal programs capture laid off federal workers applying for unemployment insurance. In the official DOL report (which hasn't been released since the shutdown), you can see it listed as a separate line item.
October 17, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Federal claims are reported separately from regular state unemployment insurance programs. Federal programs capture laid off federal workers applying for unemployment insurance. In the official DOL report (which hasn't been released since the shutdown), you can see it listed as a separate line item.
Federal layoffs, funding cuts, and the shutdown have yet to impact regular UI state claims at the national level. Continued state claims are slightly up from this time last year but in DC, regular state claims—not including federal workers—are up 53% since the same time last year. #EconSky
October 17, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Federal layoffs, funding cuts, and the shutdown have yet to impact regular UI state claims at the national level. Continued state claims are slightly up from this time last year but in DC, regular state claims—not including federal workers—are up 53% since the same time last year. #EconSky
Federal layoffs and subsequent federal UI claims are felt more acutely in Washington, DC, but nearby Maryland experienced an increase in federal UI continued claims of 678%, compared to the same week last year. These are constructed with 4-week averages to smooth volatility.
#NumbersDay #EconSky
#NumbersDay #EconSky
October 17, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Federal layoffs and subsequent federal UI claims are felt more acutely in Washington, DC, but nearby Maryland experienced an increase in federal UI continued claims of 678%, compared to the same week last year. These are constructed with 4-week averages to smooth volatility.
#NumbersDay #EconSky
#NumbersDay #EconSky
The latest initial federal UI claims data swamp any increases we've seen so far this year. Since the last data point in Sept, initial federal claims ballooned more than 10 times. Claims rose from 588 on Sept 27 to 7,264 claims on Oct 11 due to an uptick in laid off workers and the shutdown.
#EconSky
#EconSky
October 17, 2025 at 4:00 PM
The latest initial federal UI claims data swamp any increases we've seen so far this year. Since the last data point in Sept, initial federal claims ballooned more than 10 times. Claims rose from 588 on Sept 27 to 7,264 claims on Oct 11 due to an uptick in laid off workers and the shutdown.
#EconSky
#EconSky