The association between polling losses and the level of conflictive rhetoric by opposition parties toward the government becomes particularly intuitive when examining the predicted marginal effects of the interaction term in Model 2.

Using OLS models while controlling for 3WFEs and the lagged outcome (conflict density at t-1), I find support for both hypotheses: Opposition parties seek more conflict with the government when losing in the polls – particularly when falling below their previous election result.

Using monthly state-level polling data from wahlrecht.de, I compute relative polling losses* – a measure indicating by which factor an opposition party would decrease in size based on the current standing in the polls.

*“negative losses” = gains

As shown by @ortuttnauer.com & @swegmann.bsky.social‬, opposition parties engaging in conflict with the government tend to perform well in subsequent elections.

Link to their great paper @apsrjournal.bsky.social: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

New paper out @wepsocial.bsky.social!

🥡 Key Take-Away: Opposition parties seek more conflict with the government when performing poorly in the polls – especially when falling below their previous election result.

Read full 🧵 below:

New paper with @ankuepfer.bsky.social accepted at EJPR🎉
When do MPs debate each other & when do they avoid discourse? Applying a new framework to study the emergence of elite discourse, we find that ideology and gov/opp dynamics shape MPs incentives to seek & avoid dialogical interactions. #polisky

Why daily data? Using term-wise observations, we usually implicitly assume that a politician's position stays unchanged over 4-5 years. However, a PPG's composition changes significantly over a term as MPs leave the group or resign their mandate.

Applying the same distinction to cabinet members reveals a striking asymmetry. While East German politicians are conspicuously rare in West German cabinets, West Germans play a significant role at East German cabinet tables.

When taking the historical context of the German re-unification in 1990 into account and just differentiating between East- and West-German states, these patterns remain: About ¾ of the MPs in the state parliaments were born on the same side of the former inner-German border.

The legislators typically hail from their respective states, with city-states showing lower shares of local-born MPs and border regions having foreign-born representatives. This trend holds across most legislatures and time.

When examining the age of the MPs, a fascinating trend emerges. The Greens & The Left initially had notably young MPs in the state parliaments. But this generation has likely continued to serve in legislative roles over time, leading to an ageing of the parties' PPGs.

Let's differentiate between different positions. The presidiums of the state parliaments are nearing gender parity. Still, the proportion of women among the heads of government remains relatively low, while there has been a substantial increase in female ministers since 2010.

Let's dive right into some insights! Not entirely new, yet still astonishing: The proportion of women among German state legislators is seemingly locked at ~1/3 and hasn’t increased substantially since the late 90s, while partisan differences also remain persistent.

StatePol offers information on the personal background of German state politicians as well as daily data on their memberships & positions in state legislatures (i.e. PPGs & their leaderships, praesidiums, and committees) & governments since 1990.

Today @danielkuhlen.bsky.social, @jocmuel.bsky.social, @pluggedchris.bsky.social & I released StatePol – a database on 🇩🇪 state MPs and cabinet members! statepol.github.io/Database/
A 📄 examining trends in descriptive representation in 🇩🇪 state politics is out @pvs-journal.bsky.social. bit.ly/statepol