Eileen Sinclair
@eileenlvk.bsky.social
Observing long-term patterns in people.
Another full day behind me. Grateful for a moment of quiet.
January 12, 2026 at 11:50 PM
Another full day behind me. Grateful for a moment of quiet.
In a world full of shortcuts, integrity has a quiet power. 🕊️
Protect your vision. Show up for every Monday.
Real light always shines from within. ✨”
Protect your vision. Show up for every Monday.
Real light always shines from within. ✨”
January 12, 2026 at 5:12 PM
In a world full of shortcuts, integrity has a quiet power. 🕊️
Protect your vision. Show up for every Monday.
Real light always shines from within. ✨”
Protect your vision. Show up for every Monday.
Real light always shines from within. ✨”
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
Treat your central bank like a third-world country, trade like a third-world country.
bsky.app/profile/apne...
bsky.app/profile/apne...
BREAKING: The Department of Justice subpoenas the Federal Reserve, says Chair Jerome Powell.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell says DOJ has subpoenaed central bank, threatens criminal indictment
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says the Department of Justice has served the central bank with subpoenas and threatened it with a criminal indictment over his testimony about the Fed’s building renovations.
bit.ly
January 12, 2026 at 1:25 AM
Treat your central bank like a third-world country, trade like a third-world country.
bsky.app/profile/apne...
bsky.app/profile/apne...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
“This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation”
It’s about time the Fed took the gloves off
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
It’s about time the Fed took the gloves off
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Statement from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell
Good evening. On Friday, the Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment related to my testi
www.federalreserve.gov
January 12, 2026 at 12:39 AM
“This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation”
It’s about time the Fed took the gloves off
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
It’s about time the Fed took the gloves off
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
I'm on maternity leave, and OptimistiCallie is on a publishing hiatus.
But I wanted to leave you a gift in one of my most-read posts of all time during a season to focus on all that really matters 🎁
www.optimisticallie.com/p/all-that-r...
But I wanted to leave you a gift in one of my most-read posts of all time during a season to focus on all that really matters 🎁
www.optimisticallie.com/p/all-that-r...
December 23, 2025 at 5:19 PM
I'm on maternity leave, and OptimistiCallie is on a publishing hiatus.
But I wanted to leave you a gift in one of my most-read posts of all time during a season to focus on all that really matters 🎁
www.optimisticallie.com/p/all-that-r...
But I wanted to leave you a gift in one of my most-read posts of all time during a season to focus on all that really matters 🎁
www.optimisticallie.com/p/all-that-r...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
1/ I strongly endorse this op-ed by @marthagimbel.bsky.social of @budgetlab.bsky.social in @theargumentmag.bsky.social .
open.substack.com/pub/theargum...
open.substack.com/pub/theargum...
Don't get fancy with your labor market fixes for AI
AI could be unpredictable. Our labor market response to it shouldn't be.
open.substack.com
December 20, 2025 at 6:59 PM
1/ I strongly endorse this op-ed by @marthagimbel.bsky.social of @budgetlab.bsky.social in @theargumentmag.bsky.social .
open.substack.com/pub/theargum...
open.substack.com/pub/theargum...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
The Beige Book says employment is contracting, ADP says employment is contracting, the BLS says unemployment is going up, continuing jobless claims are rising, and WARN notices are up. It's very clear what's going on in the labor market, but stocks are up so people brush it off.
December 3, 2025 at 1:34 PM
The Beige Book says employment is contracting, ADP says employment is contracting, the BLS says unemployment is going up, continuing jobless claims are rising, and WARN notices are up. It's very clear what's going on in the labor market, but stocks are up so people brush it off.
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
The unemployment rate moved higher in September, mainly because people permanently lost their jobs.
In fact, permanent job losers were the largest contribution to the 12-bp rise in unemployment.
Higher unemployment can be good or bad.
This is bad.
In fact, permanent job losers were the largest contribution to the 12-bp rise in unemployment.
Higher unemployment can be good or bad.
This is bad.
November 20, 2025 at 3:25 PM
The unemployment rate moved higher in September, mainly because people permanently lost their jobs.
In fact, permanent job losers were the largest contribution to the 12-bp rise in unemployment.
Higher unemployment can be good or bad.
This is bad.
In fact, permanent job losers were the largest contribution to the 12-bp rise in unemployment.
Higher unemployment can be good or bad.
This is bad.
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
🔭 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🔭
The themes/stories I'm watching as we turn the calendar
No targets. No predictions. No marketing gimmicks.
Just the good stuff.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-2026-o...
The themes/stories I'm watching as we turn the calendar
No targets. No predictions. No marketing gimmicks.
Just the good stuff.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-2026-o...
November 17, 2025 at 6:05 PM
🔭 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🔭
The themes/stories I'm watching as we turn the calendar
No targets. No predictions. No marketing gimmicks.
Just the good stuff.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-2026-o...
The themes/stories I'm watching as we turn the calendar
No targets. No predictions. No marketing gimmicks.
Just the good stuff.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-2026-o...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
🤑 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤑
The economy normally drives the stock market
But is the stock market driving the economy now?!
I debunked the latest narrative about the power of the wealth effect vs. the job market
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-wealth...
The economy normally drives the stock market
But is the stock market driving the economy now?!
I debunked the latest narrative about the power of the wealth effect vs. the job market
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-wealth...
November 10, 2025 at 4:53 PM
🤑 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤑
The economy normally drives the stock market
But is the stock market driving the economy now?!
I debunked the latest narrative about the power of the wealth effect vs. the job market
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-wealth...
The economy normally drives the stock market
But is the stock market driving the economy now?!
I debunked the latest narrative about the power of the wealth effect vs. the job market
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-wealth...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
😵💫 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 😵💫
Life is a little insane for me atm, so I wrote a little bit about how purpose, process and progress help keep me/maybe you anchored in your investing.
Sanity over everything, folks. Even returns.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/how-to-inv...
Life is a little insane for me atm, so I wrote a little bit about how purpose, process and progress help keep me/maybe you anchored in your investing.
Sanity over everything, folks. Even returns.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/how-to-inv...
November 3, 2025 at 5:53 PM
😵💫 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 😵💫
Life is a little insane for me atm, so I wrote a little bit about how purpose, process and progress help keep me/maybe you anchored in your investing.
Sanity over everything, folks. Even returns.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/how-to-inv...
Life is a little insane for me atm, so I wrote a little bit about how purpose, process and progress help keep me/maybe you anchored in your investing.
Sanity over everything, folks. Even returns.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/how-to-inv...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
Strange: the 2-year yield is up 12 basis points on the day, its biggest move higher on a Fed day since March 2008.
Yields haaaaaated Powell's strict tone on future cuts, even though balance sheet runoff is ending (+ the Fed is effectively shortening its duration)
Yields haaaaaated Powell's strict tone on future cuts, even though balance sheet runoff is ending (+ the Fed is effectively shortening its duration)
October 29, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Strange: the 2-year yield is up 12 basis points on the day, its biggest move higher on a Fed day since March 2008.
Yields haaaaaated Powell's strict tone on future cuts, even though balance sheet runoff is ending (+ the Fed is effectively shortening its duration)
Yields haaaaaated Powell's strict tone on future cuts, even though balance sheet runoff is ending (+ the Fed is effectively shortening its duration)
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
MY LATEST FOR @businessinsider.com
Millennials and Gen Zs share an awful bond — we both had to enter adulthood during a crisis.
I wrote about market cycles, financial trauma & millennials' improbable comeback to give Gen Z some perspective on what's ahead:
www.businessinsider.com/millennials-...
Millennials and Gen Zs share an awful bond — we both had to enter adulthood during a crisis.
I wrote about market cycles, financial trauma & millennials' improbable comeback to give Gen Z some perspective on what's ahead:
www.businessinsider.com/millennials-...
October 27, 2025 at 6:15 PM
MY LATEST FOR @businessinsider.com
Millennials and Gen Zs share an awful bond — we both had to enter adulthood during a crisis.
I wrote about market cycles, financial trauma & millennials' improbable comeback to give Gen Z some perspective on what's ahead:
www.businessinsider.com/millennials-...
Millennials and Gen Zs share an awful bond — we both had to enter adulthood during a crisis.
I wrote about market cycles, financial trauma & millennials' improbable comeback to give Gen Z some perspective on what's ahead:
www.businessinsider.com/millennials-...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
🤖 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤖
The biggest tech hyperscalers could spend *$450 billion* on AI next year.
Can they afford this hefty shopping spree? Yes.
But they'll have to accept some undesirable tradeoffs, and some firms will feel more pain than others.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/big-tech-s...
The biggest tech hyperscalers could spend *$450 billion* on AI next year.
Can they afford this hefty shopping spree? Yes.
But they'll have to accept some undesirable tradeoffs, and some firms will feel more pain than others.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/big-tech-s...
October 27, 2025 at 3:30 PM
🤖 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤖
The biggest tech hyperscalers could spend *$450 billion* on AI next year.
Can they afford this hefty shopping spree? Yes.
But they'll have to accept some undesirable tradeoffs, and some firms will feel more pain than others.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/big-tech-s...
The biggest tech hyperscalers could spend *$450 billion* on AI next year.
Can they afford this hefty shopping spree? Yes.
But they'll have to accept some undesirable tradeoffs, and some firms will feel more pain than others.
www.optimisticallie.com/p/big-tech-s...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
🪳 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🪳
On if there could be more credit "cockroaches" to think about (TL;DR probably not), and why any credit/bad loan headlines make us feel like the world is about to end
www.optimisticallie.com/p/credit-coc...
On if there could be more credit "cockroaches" to think about (TL;DR probably not), and why any credit/bad loan headlines make us feel like the world is about to end
www.optimisticallie.com/p/credit-coc...
October 20, 2025 at 12:45 PM
🪳 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🪳
On if there could be more credit "cockroaches" to think about (TL;DR probably not), and why any credit/bad loan headlines make us feel like the world is about to end
www.optimisticallie.com/p/credit-coc...
On if there could be more credit "cockroaches" to think about (TL;DR probably not), and why any credit/bad loan headlines make us feel like the world is about to end
www.optimisticallie.com/p/credit-coc...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
Two interesting stats:
The VIX is heading for its biggest jump for a one-day selloff of this size since July 2020. Lotta hedging for a blanket risk with no real trigger date.
The S&P 500 hasn't closed below its 200-day in 116 trading days, the longest streak since Feb. 2011.
The VIX is heading for its biggest jump for a one-day selloff of this size since July 2020. Lotta hedging for a blanket risk with no real trigger date.
The S&P 500 hasn't closed below its 200-day in 116 trading days, the longest streak since Feb. 2011.
October 16, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Two interesting stats:
The VIX is heading for its biggest jump for a one-day selloff of this size since July 2020. Lotta hedging for a blanket risk with no real trigger date.
The S&P 500 hasn't closed below its 200-day in 116 trading days, the longest streak since Feb. 2011.
The VIX is heading for its biggest jump for a one-day selloff of this size since July 2020. Lotta hedging for a blanket risk with no real trigger date.
The S&P 500 hasn't closed below its 200-day in 116 trading days, the longest streak since Feb. 2011.
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
🎂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🎂
Happy 3rd birthday to the bull market.
Why you can argue all you want about why this bull is about to die...but you can't bet against it
(bulls last longer than you think)
optimisticallie.com/p/happy-birthday-bull-market-78a6
Happy 3rd birthday to the bull market.
Why you can argue all you want about why this bull is about to die...but you can't bet against it
(bulls last longer than you think)
optimisticallie.com/p/happy-birthday-bull-market-78a6
October 13, 2025 at 1:17 PM
🎂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🎂
Happy 3rd birthday to the bull market.
Why you can argue all you want about why this bull is about to die...but you can't bet against it
(bulls last longer than you think)
optimisticallie.com/p/happy-birthday-bull-market-78a6
Happy 3rd birthday to the bull market.
Why you can argue all you want about why this bull is about to die...but you can't bet against it
(bulls last longer than you think)
optimisticallie.com/p/happy-birthday-bull-market-78a6
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
🍂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍂
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
October 6, 2025 at 1:49 PM
🍂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍂
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
🍂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍂
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
October 6, 2025 at 1:45 PM
🍂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍂
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months)
Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio:
www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
The S&P 500's average year vs. its five best and worst years.
This is why we don't invest based solely on the calendar, folks
More tomorrow, sign up for my insights here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe
This is why we don't invest based solely on the calendar, folks
More tomorrow, sign up for my insights here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe
October 5, 2025 at 10:21 PM
The S&P 500's average year vs. its five best and worst years.
This is why we don't invest based solely on the calendar, folks
More tomorrow, sign up for my insights here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe
This is why we don't invest based solely on the calendar, folks
More tomorrow, sign up for my insights here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
All around bad data dump for the job market this morning:
Consumer confidence: respondents' perception of jobs plentiful vs. hard to get is barreling towards zero (which has historically been the breakpoint for recessions)
Consumer confidence: respondents' perception of jobs plentiful vs. hard to get is barreling towards zero (which has historically been the breakpoint for recessions)
September 30, 2025 at 3:24 PM
All around bad data dump for the job market this morning:
Consumer confidence: respondents' perception of jobs plentiful vs. hard to get is barreling towards zero (which has historically been the breakpoint for recessions)
Consumer confidence: respondents' perception of jobs plentiful vs. hard to get is barreling towards zero (which has historically been the breakpoint for recessions)
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
JOLTS:
Hiring rate: 3.2%, matching the lowest since 2020
Firing/separations rate: also 3.2%, at a 12-year low
Quits rate: 1.9%, lowest since COVID and historically low
Hiring rate: 3.2%, matching the lowest since 2020
Firing/separations rate: also 3.2%, at a 12-year low
Quits rate: 1.9%, lowest since COVID and historically low
September 30, 2025 at 3:25 PM
JOLTS:
Hiring rate: 3.2%, matching the lowest since 2020
Firing/separations rate: also 3.2%, at a 12-year low
Quits rate: 1.9%, lowest since COVID and historically low
Hiring rate: 3.2%, matching the lowest since 2020
Firing/separations rate: also 3.2%, at a 12-year low
Quits rate: 1.9%, lowest since COVID and historically low
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
🛑 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🛑
What you need to know about (what could be) the first government shutdown in nearly seven years
www.optimisticallie.com/p/shutting-i...
What you need to know about (what could be) the first government shutdown in nearly seven years
www.optimisticallie.com/p/shutting-i...
September 29, 2025 at 1:01 PM
🛑 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🛑
What you need to know about (what could be) the first government shutdown in nearly seven years
www.optimisticallie.com/p/shutting-i...
What you need to know about (what could be) the first government shutdown in nearly seven years
www.optimisticallie.com/p/shutting-i...
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
What you need to know about government shutdowns, with the next one (maybe) 53 hours away, eek!
TOMORROW on OptimistiCallie.
Subscribe here for my research straight in your inbox:
optimisticallie.com/subscribe
TOMORROW on OptimistiCallie.
Subscribe here for my research straight in your inbox:
optimisticallie.com/subscribe
September 28, 2025 at 10:58 PM
What you need to know about government shutdowns, with the next one (maybe) 53 hours away, eek!
TOMORROW on OptimistiCallie.
Subscribe here for my research straight in your inbox:
optimisticallie.com/subscribe
TOMORROW on OptimistiCallie.
Subscribe here for my research straight in your inbox:
optimisticallie.com/subscribe
Reposted by Eileen Sinclair
🏡 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🏡
On the biggest myth surrounding rate cuts: are they the end to our long national nightmare of high mortgage rates?
Probably not.
The math behind mortgage rates + what it'll take to fix housing affordability
www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-rate-c...
On the biggest myth surrounding rate cuts: are they the end to our long national nightmare of high mortgage rates?
Probably not.
The math behind mortgage rates + what it'll take to fix housing affordability
www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-rate-c...
September 23, 2025 at 11:23 AM
🏡 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🏡
On the biggest myth surrounding rate cuts: are they the end to our long national nightmare of high mortgage rates?
Probably not.
The math behind mortgage rates + what it'll take to fix housing affordability
www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-rate-c...
On the biggest myth surrounding rate cuts: are they the end to our long national nightmare of high mortgage rates?
Probably not.
The math behind mortgage rates + what it'll take to fix housing affordability
www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-rate-c...