eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
Personal account. I study and teach racial and ethnic politics for work. Re-posting election twitter stuff. https://goodauthority.org/people/eric-gonzalez-juenke/
The Presidency and Immigration Policy: Rhetoric and Reality https://bit.ly/4cZUG9A
The Presidency and Immigration Policy: Rhetoric and Reality https://bit.ly/4cZUG9A
I’m ready to be hurt again. Let’s go.
November 17, 2025 at 10:52 PM
I’m ready to be hurt again. Let’s go.
2018’s Blue Wave was Dems +8 www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...
November 17, 2025 at 10:03 PM
2018’s Blue Wave was Dems +8 www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...
November 17, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Canaries in coal mines.
November 17, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Canaries in coal mines.
Yep. Parties overreact to much bigger currents driving elections. It makes sense but it doesn’t make it useful.
November 16, 2025 at 9:33 PM
Yep. Parties overreact to much bigger currents driving elections. It makes sense but it doesn’t make it useful.
I feel like Jameis is just going to win the game tomorrow. Just with his weirdness. Feel like I could be his best friend if he’d let me.
November 15, 2025 at 11:56 PM
I feel like Jameis is just going to win the game tomorrow. Just with his weirdness. Feel like I could be his best friend if he’d let me.
A simple illustrative (hypothetical) example. You can focus on the 2-party change (small) and miss the 3-party change (big), all being driven by differential unaffiliated turnout declines.
November 15, 2025 at 6:49 PM
A simple illustrative (hypothetical) example. You can focus on the 2-party change (small) and miss the 3-party change (big), all being driven by differential unaffiliated turnout declines.
...which they probably did, unaffiliated stayed home at 2x the rate of partisans in 2025 in county data we have, you don't need Trump voters to change their votes (~95% Trump voters didn't). They just need to stay home. Ignoring UA turnout is prob. skewing these analyses. Need to wait for more data.
November 15, 2025 at 3:59 PM
...which they probably did, unaffiliated stayed home at 2x the rate of partisans in 2025 in county data we have, you don't need Trump voters to change their votes (~95% Trump voters didn't). They just need to stay home. Ignoring UA turnout is prob. skewing these analyses. Need to wait for more data.
This is solid work and people should read it. I also think they are underestimating compositional effects by focusing on 2-party changes in NJ, and not on the other 1/3 of the electorate that is "unaffiliated." If Trump unaffiliateds disproportionately stayed home... www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/u...
November 15, 2025 at 3:59 PM
This is solid work and people should read it. I also think they are underestimating compositional effects by focusing on 2-party changes in NJ, and not on the other 1/3 of the electorate that is "unaffiliated." If Trump unaffiliateds disproportionately stayed home... www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/u...
I tell students they are growing up during the death throes of the Archie Bunker era, a long period of reactionary backlash to the end of Jim Crow. You can see it in these survey data and the ages of who sits in Congress. Older folks (like me) are fighting the same battles they grew up with.
November 15, 2025 at 1:35 PM
I tell students they are growing up during the death throes of the Archie Bunker era, a long period of reactionary backlash to the end of Jim Crow. You can see it in these survey data and the ages of who sits in Congress. Older folks (like me) are fighting the same battles they grew up with.
They are whipping the members for the Epstein vote. Test for the president.
November 15, 2025 at 12:29 PM
They are whipping the members for the Epstein vote. Test for the president.
Literally the last week of my life. Here is Burlington Co., NJ composition change from 2024 to 2025. Need to dive into some more data but it suggests that the NJ electorate *turned out* unevenly compared to last year.
November 13, 2025 at 10:04 PM
Literally the last week of my life. Here is Burlington Co., NJ composition change from 2024 to 2025. Need to dive into some more data but it suggests that the NJ electorate *turned out* unevenly compared to last year.
New public data from the @statenavigate.org folks. VA election results from *last week* tabulated at the state legislative district level. Good times. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
November 13, 2025 at 8:52 PM
New public data from the @statenavigate.org folks. VA election results from *last week* tabulated at the state legislative district level. Good times. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
You think Christmas showed up too early? We JUST finished off-cycle elections. www.insideelections.com/ratings/house
November 11, 2025 at 9:45 PM
You think Christmas showed up too early? We JUST finished off-cycle elections. www.insideelections.com/ratings/house
One year ago from post-election lecture slides. This was all foreseeable. Did not think his advisors would let him go ahead with big tariffs for this long, so that was a big miss.
November 9, 2025 at 2:47 PM
One year ago from post-election lecture slides. This was all foreseeable. Did not think his advisors would let him go ahead with big tariffs for this long, so that was a big miss.
Great example of this is Union City (in Hudson Co.), where the % "swing" looks massive (it is massive). But the turnout in 2025 is about 15-20 points lower than last year. Yes, these are mostly R's "voting by not voting," but it doesn't mean they switched to the Dems, they didn't show up.
November 6, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Great example of this is Union City (in Hudson Co.), where the % "swing" looks massive (it is massive). But the turnout in 2025 is about 15-20 points lower than last year. Yes, these are mostly R's "voting by not voting," but it doesn't mean they switched to the Dems, they didn't show up.
Whoopsie. RCP scrubbed their VA Miyares/Jones avg. just days after this post for some reason. Not for other races. Just this one.
November 6, 2025 at 12:01 AM
Whoopsie. RCP scrubbed their VA Miyares/Jones avg. just days after this post for some reason. Not for other races. Just this one.
People can do what they want but feels like this outfit would have killed it on here last night. They had an amazing night. Congrats to the hardest working folks in VA election data. Bookmark them for next Fall. statenavigate.org
November 5, 2025 at 7:33 PM
People can do what they want but feels like this outfit would have killed it on here last night. They had an amazing night. Congrats to the hardest working folks in VA election data. Bookmark them for next Fall. statenavigate.org
