Just published in @jpube.bsky.social:

"Learning the hard way: Conflicts, sanctions and military aid"

By @edogrillo.bsky.social & Antonio Nicolò

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

🧵 How do criminal organizations expand to strong states? My paper in @thejop.bsky.social explains how mafias successfully moved to Northern Italy—by striking deals with local actors and exploiting migrant labor. Thread: ⬇️

Based on many useful comments, @grattonecon.bsky.social and I have updated the working paper over last couple of days. We now explicitly extend the model to account for the risk of democratic backsliding and explain the rationale behind our assumptions more clearly.
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/60mq5...

📢Call for Papers, young scholars
10th Organizational Economics Workshop
🗓️29-30 May 2025, Padua
Co-organized by @dsea-unipd.bsky.social, @berkeleyhaas.bsky.social & the Sorbonne Business School.
PhD students & researchers who defended post 2019.
Submit by 9 March
www.economia.unipd.it/en/10th-orga...

There's a famous political scientist who often says all results of formal models are obvious (which I take to be a cousin of this claim).

There's a story of a junior theorist setting up the model in a talk, stopping, and saying, "This would be the moment to tell me the results, if they're obvious."