Ed Hill
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Ed Hill
@edmhill.bsky.social
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Researcher in mathematical epidemiology & infectious disease modelling.

Affiliations: Civic Health Innovation Labs (CHIL) @livunichil.bsky.social, @thepandemicinst.bsky.social, @livuni-phps.bsky.social‬, @livuni-iph.bsky.social, @liverpooluni.bsky.social.
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3/ Health Data Decoded

🎙️ Civic Health Innovation Labs (@livunichil.bsky.social) podcast discussing use of civic data to improve public health.

🎧 Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/1kbSyvI...

📹 YouTube: www.youtube.com/@HealthDataD...

🗓️ Next episode scheduled release date: Fri 28 Nov 2025!

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Health Data Decoded
Welcome to Health Data Decoded! A podcast series from the Civic Health Innovation Labs (CHIL), based at the University of Liverpool. CHIL is an interdisciplinary research centre tackling global hea...
www.youtube.com
November 7, 2025 at 3:50 PM
edmhill.bsky.social
2/ Mental Health Research for Innovation Centre (M-RIC)

🗣️ Sam shares experiences of PhD research working as part of the Mental Health Research for Innovation Centre (M-RIC) & the Civic Health Innovation Labs (@livunichil.bsky.social).

🔗 Sam’s webpage: sam-osian.com

🔗 M-RIC: mric.uk
Sam Osian
Sam Osian
sam-osian.com
November 7, 2025 at 3:50 PM
edmhill.bsky.social
5/ Resources

Report 🔗: www.gov.uk/government/s...

National flu & COVID-19 surveillance data: 06 November 2025 (week 45)

🔗: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/690b73...

National flu & COVID-19 surveillance reports: 2025 to 2026 season repository

🔗: www.gov.uk/government/s...

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National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports: 2025 to 2026 season
National influenza (flu) and COVID-19 report, monitoring COVID-19 activity, seasonal flu and other seasonal respiratory illnesses.
www.gov.uk
November 6, 2025 at 11:35 PM
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📊 Data up to end of week 44 2025 (02 Nov 2025), from 99.1% of GP practices reporting weekly vaccine uptake data

▶️ 34.2% in all 2 year olds
▶️ 34.3% in all 3 year olds

💉 Uptake vs equivalent week in 2024/25: ↔️
Influenza vaccine uptake in GP patients Weekly vaccine uptake data is provisional. Influenza vaccination is reported by GP practice through the ImmForm website. ImmForm provides a secure online platform for vaccine uptake data collection for several immunisation surveys, including the seasonal influenza vaccine uptake collection. Details can be found at sources of surveillance data for influenza, COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sources-of-surveillance-data-for-influenza-covid-19-and-other-respiratory-viruses#vaccine-uptake For the 2025 to 2026 season’s vaccination programme, as in previous seasons children and pregnant women have been eligible since 1 September. For this current season and the previous season (2025 to 2026 and 2024 to 2025 seasons respectively), adult groups (excluding pregnant women) were eligible from the start of October (01 October 2025 and 03 October 2024 respectively), rather than 1 September as in previous seasons. See the Timing section of the annual flu letter for more information: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-flu-immunisation-programme-plan-2025-to-2026 Up to the end of week 44 of 2025 (Sunday 02 November 2025), the provisional proportion of people in England who had received an influenza vaccine this season in targeted groups was as follows: Children (99.1% of GP practices reporting): - 34.2% of children aged 2 years - 34.3% in children aged 3 years Compared with the equivalent week last season (2024 to 2025), vaccine uptake is higher for pregnant women and those aged 2, comparable for those aged under 65 years in clinical risk groups and those aged 3, and lower for those aged 65 years and over. Up to the end of week 44 of 2025 (Sunday 02 November 2025), the provisional proportion of people in England who had received an influenza vaccine this season in targeted groups was as follows: Children (99.1% of GP practices reporting): - 34.2% of children aged 2 years - 34.3% in children aged 3 years Compared with the equivalent week last season (2024 to 2025), vaccine uptake is higher for pregnant women and those aged 2, comparable for those aged under 65 years in clinical risk groups and those aged 3, and lower for those aged 65 years and over.
November 6, 2025 at 11:35 PM
edmhill.bsky.social
3/ Vaccine uptake in GP patients

💉 Provisional data up to 02 Nov 2025 from 99.1% of GP practices reporting weekly vaccine uptake

▶️ 65+ years: 61.5% (⬇️ vs equivalent week in 2024/2025)
▶️ Under 65 years in clinical risk group: 28.9% (↔️ vs equiv wk 24/25)
▶️ Pregnant women: 29.7% (⬆️ vs equiv wk 24/25)
Influenza vaccine uptake in GP patients. Weekly vaccine uptake data is provisional. Influenza vaccination is reported by GP practice through the ImmForm website. ImmForm provides a secure online platform for vaccine uptake data collection for several immunisation surveys, including the seasonal influenza vaccine uptake collection. Details can be found at sources of surveillance data for influenza, COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sources-of-surveillance-data-for-influenza-covid-19-and-other-respiratory-viruses#vaccine-uptake For the 2025 to 2026 season’s vaccination programme, as in previous seasons children and pregnant women have been eligible since 1 September. For this current season and the previous season (2025 to 2026 and 2024 to 2025 seasons respectively), adult groups (excluding pregnant women) were eligible from the start of October (01 October 2025 and 03 October 2024 respectively), rather than 1 September as in previous seasons. See the Timing section of the annual flu letter for more information: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-flu-immunisation-programme-plan-2025-to-2026 Up to the end of week 44 of 2025 (Sunday 02 November 2025), the provisional proportion of people in England who had received an influenza vaccine this season in targeted groups was as follows: Adults (99.1% of GP practices reporting through Immform): - 28.9% in those aged under 65 years in a clinical risk group - 29.7% in all pregnant women - 61.5% in all those aged over 65 years Compared with the equivalent week last season (2024 to 2025), vaccine uptake is higher for pregnant women and those aged 2, comparable for those aged under 65 years in clinical risk groups and those aged 3, and lower for those aged 65 years and over. Up to the end of week 44 of 2025 (Sunday 02 November 2025), the provisional proportion of people in England who had received an influenza vaccine this season in targeted groups was as follows: Adults (99.1% of GP practices reporting through Immform): - 28.9% in those aged under 65 years in a clinical risk group - 29.7% in all pregnant women - 61.5% in all those aged over 65 years Compared with the equivalent week last season (2024 to 2025), vaccine uptake is higher for pregnant women and those aged 2, comparable for those aged under 65 years in clinical risk groups and those aged 3, and lower for those aged 65 years and over.
November 6, 2025 at 11:35 PM
edmhill.bsky.social
2/ Influenza activity level (AL) indicators

🔬 Lab surveillance influenza positivity: ⬆️ (AL: Low)

🥼 Influenza-like illnesses GP consultations: ↗️ (AL: Baseline)

🧬 GP swabbing positivity: ⬆️ (AL: Low)

🏥 Hospital admissions: ⬆️ (AL: Low)

🚑 ICU admissions: ⬆️ (AL: Low)
Influenza activity increased and is circulating at low levels. This is an unusually early start of the influenza season. Circulation remained high in children and young adults. Emergency department (ED) attendances for influenza-like-illness (ILI) increased. The number of influenza-confirmed acute respiratory infection (ARI) incidents increased. Of influenza viruses subtyped at the UKHSA Respiratory Virus Unit, the majority were A(H3N2). A briefing has been issued to inform the NHS that the flu season has started. Weekly influenza vaccine uptake for the 2025 to 2026 season is reported for week 44 (data up to 2 November 2025). Compared with the equivalent week last season (2024 to 2025), vaccine uptake is higher for pregnant women and those aged 2, comparable for those aged under 65 years in clinical risk groups and those aged 3, and lower for those aged 65 years & over. Indicator: Laboratory surveillance Trend: Increasing Level: Low Data: Influenza positivity increased with a weekly mean positivity rate of 10.9% compared with 8.2% in the previous week. Indicator: Influenza-like illnesses General Practice (GP) consultations Trend: Increasing slightly Level: Baseline Data: The weekly ILI consultation rate increased slightly to 6.4 per 100,000 registered population in participating GP practices compared with 6 per 100,000 in the previous week. Indicator: GP swabbing positivity Trend: Increasing Level: Low Data: In week 43, among all tested samples, 15.6% were positive for influenza, compared with 10.2% in the previous week. Indicator: Hospital admissions Trend: Increasing Level: Low Data: The overall weekly hospital admission rate for influenza hospitalisations was increasing at 3.81 per 100,000 compared with 2.44 per 100,000 in the previous week. Indicator: ICU/HDU admissions Trend: Increasing Level: Low Data: The overall weekly hospital admission rate for influenza ICU-HDU was increasing at 0.12 per 100,000 compared with 0.10 per 100,000 in the previous week. Laboratory-confirmed influenza cases The Second Generation Surveillance System (SGSS) captures test result information for notifiable infectious diseases, including COVID-19 and influenza, from laboratories in England. The unified sample dataset (USD), used to calculate the percentage tests positive for SARS-CoV-2 among all SARS-CoV-2 tests, stores all SARS-CoV-2 test results reported to SGSS, Respiratory DataMart, and UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) laboratories. As of 4 November 2025, influenza positivity in week 44 increased with a weekly average positivity rate of 10.9% compared with 8.2% in the previous week. Influenza positivity rates were highest in those aged between 5 and 14 years at a weekly average positivity rate of 37.8%. This has increased from 30.4% among those aged between 5 and 14 years in week 43. Influenza hospital admissions Surveillance of influenza hospitalisations to all levels of care is based on data from a small sentinel network of acute NHS trusts in England. Please note that SARI Watch data is provisional and subject to retrospective updates. Rates are presented per 100,000 trust catchment population. Influenza hospitalisations to all levels of care in week 44 2025 based on 24 sentinel NHS trusts in England were as follows: - the overall weekly hospital admission rate for influenza hospitalisations was increasing at 3.81 per 100,000 compared with 2.44 per 100,000 in the previous week - this rate is in the low impact range (1.95 to less than 6.88 per 100,000) - hospital admission rates for influenza were highest in those aged 85 years and over (14.22 per 100,000). Please refer to the respiratory virus section of the data dashboard for regional breakdowns: https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk/respiratory-viruses/influenza - there were 422 new hospital admissions for influenza (360 influenza A(not subtyped), 21 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 41 influenza A(H3N2), and 0 influenza B) Influenza ICU or HDU admissions Influenza ICU-HDU admissions in week 44 2025 based on 97 NHS trusts in England were as follows: - the overall weekly hospital admission rate for influenza ICU-HDU was increasing at 0.12 per 100,000 compared with 0.10 per 100,000 in the previous week - this rate is in the low impact range (0.1 to 0.3 per 100,000) - please refer to the respiratory virus section of the data dashboard for regional breakdowns: https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk/respiratory-viruses/influenza - there were 54 new ICU or HDU admissions for influenza (45 influenza A(not subtyped), 3 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 6 influenza A(H3N2), and 0 influenza B)
November 6, 2025 at 11:34 PM
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6/ The repository of outbreak assessment documents (from Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs + Animal & Plant Health Agency) for HPAI in Great Britain and Europe.

🔗: www.gov.uk/government/p...

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Avian influenza (bird flu) in Europe, Russia and the UK
Preliminary and updated outbreak assessments for avian influenza (bird flu) in Europe, Russia and the UK.
www.gov.uk
November 3, 2025 at 6:31 PM
edmhill.bsky.social
5/ HPAI risk levels in Great Britain

▶️ Wild birds: VERY HIGH (occurs almost certainly)

▶️ Poultry exposure risk (biosecurity suboptimal): Increased to HIGH (occurs very often) w/ high uncertainty

▶️ Poultry exposure risk (stringent biosecurity): Held at LOW (rare but does occur) w/ high uncertainty
Conclusion Since our last assessment on 8 October 2025, cases of HPAI H5Nx in Great Britain have increased almost exponentially in wild birds week on week with over 40 cases in week 43. Therefore, the national risk level for HPAI H5 in wild birds in Great Britain is increased to VERY HIGH (occurs almost certainly). The increasing wild bird infection pressure undoubtedly filters through to poultry, which will put pressure on even stringent biosecurity, and the risks to poultry both in Great Britain and Europe are therefore increasing. Since our previous assessment on the 8 October 2025 there have been another 9 new IPs in Great Britain. The risk of infection of poultry in Great Britain with suboptimal biosecurity is therefore increased to HIGH (occurs very often) with high uncertainty. The risk to poultry with stringent biosecurity is maintained at LOW (rare but does occur) but the uncertainty is increased from medium to high. As of 00.01 on 30 October 2025, a regional avian influenza prevention zone (AIPZ) with housing measures is being introduced for poultry flocks of more than 50 birds and those that sell or give away eggs or poultry products in the north, central and east of England (Housing measures introduced to protect poultry and other captive birds - GOV.UK; https://www.gov.uk/government/news/housing-measures-introduced-to-protect-poultry-and-other-captive-birds). An AIPZ with mandatory biosecurity measures also remains in force across the entirety of Great Britain to mitigate the risk of outbreaks of the disease (Bird flu: avian influenza prevention zone (AIPZ) (England) - GOV.UK; https://www.gov.uk/animal-disease-cases-england/bird-flu-regional-avian-influenza-prevention-zone-east-of-england). We are continuing to closely monitor the situation in Europe and to review the risk. It is important that stringent adherence to good biosecurity practices is maintained.
November 3, 2025 at 6:31 PM
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4/ HPAI H5 in poultry & wild birds in Europe

🗓️ Between 08-28 Oct 2025 reported by The World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH).

▶️ 150 HPAI H5 event reports (65 from poultry; 85 from wild birds)

📊 Positive reports doubled from 23 to 55 in week 42 2025 & doubled again to 116 in week 43 2025
Europe Between 8 October 2025 and 28 October 2025 there were a total of 150 HPAI H5 events in domestic poultry, captive birds and non-poultry including wild birds across Europe reported by the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH). Of these reports on WOAH, 85 were in wild birds and 65 were poultry outbreaks. Positive reports according to data from IZSVe (2025) doubled from 23 to 55 in week 42 and doubled again to 116 in week 43 as shown in Figure 2. This represents a marked increase in positive reports since September when there were fewer than 15 reports per week across Europe according to data from IZSVe (2025) as shown in our previous assessment on 8 October 2025 (High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) in Great Britain and Europe). As noted in our previous assessment, although wild bird cases have increased slightly in September, there was also a notable increase in poultry farm outbreaks relative to wild bird cases during September (High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) in Great Britain and Europe). This trend has increased in early October with poultry outbreaks accounting for more than half of the weekly reports in week 42, reflecting the increased wild bird infection pressure across Europe. However, it appears that the wild bird risk is increasing exponentially week on week in Europe from week 41 to week 43. Figure: Weekly numbers of HPAI H5 positive reports in Europe according to data from IZSVe (2025) to 30 October 2025. The figure shows levels doubling in early October to 48 in week 42 and then a doubling again to 116 in week 43. The proportion of wild bird cases in grey increases more rapidly than the proportion of poultry outbreaks in red and purple as discussed in the text. It should be noted there will be more reports to follow for week 44.
November 3, 2025 at 6:27 PM