Ed Hodgson
@edhodgsoned.bsky.social
Associate Director, Polling and Analysis, at More in Common
Finally, it's rare to see a wordcloud as vivid as this: the top thing people feel when shown these pictures of the enclosure is SAD 🐧
November 14, 2025 at 3:05 PM
Finally, it's rare to see a wordcloud as vivid as this: the top thing people feel when shown these pictures of the enclosure is SAD 🐧
When shown images of the enclosure, the number of "don't know"s falls further, and people are much more likely to say it's unacceptable
November 14, 2025 at 3:05 PM
When shown images of the enclosure, the number of "don't know"s falls further, and people are much more likely to say it's unacceptable
🐧 The public have spoken on the penguins kept in a windowless basement in London Aquarium: 40% think it's unacceptable and just 19% think it's acceptable
November 14, 2025 at 3:05 PM
🐧 The public have spoken on the penguins kept in a windowless basement in London Aquarium: 40% think it's unacceptable and just 19% think it's acceptable
Interesting how much Bluesky usage has fallen - it is now about half of what it was in November 2024 - would be intrigued to know people's theories about why that is
July 31, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Interesting how much Bluesky usage has fallen - it is now about half of what it was in November 2024 - would be intrigued to know people's theories about why that is
Every week we ask who Britons would vote for - this week we asked who they'd vote *against*
Here's what a negative voting intention looks like:
🌹Lab 23%
➡️ Ref: 22%
🌳 Con: 10%
🌏 Green: 4%
🐦 LD: 4%
Here's what a negative voting intention looks like:
🌹Lab 23%
➡️ Ref: 22%
🌳 Con: 10%
🌏 Green: 4%
🐦 LD: 4%
June 25, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Every week we ask who Britons would vote for - this week we asked who they'd vote *against*
Here's what a negative voting intention looks like:
🌹Lab 23%
➡️ Ref: 22%
🌳 Con: 10%
🌏 Green: 4%
🐦 LD: 4%
Here's what a negative voting intention looks like:
🌹Lab 23%
➡️ Ref: 22%
🌳 Con: 10%
🌏 Green: 4%
🐦 LD: 4%
(In fact, if you ask people where their high bills come from, most say the greed of energy company bosses, just 15% say net zero policies)
June 23, 2025 at 1:55 PM
(In fact, if you ask people where their high bills come from, most say the greed of energy company bosses, just 15% say net zero policies)
For example, just as a majority suspect that oil companies might be funding climate denial to protect their profits, a majority now also think it's possible that renewable policies are pushing climate policies to support their bottom-line too
June 23, 2025 at 1:55 PM
For example, just as a majority suspect that oil companies might be funding climate denial to protect their profits, a majority now also think it's possible that renewable policies are pushing climate policies to support their bottom-line too
More broadly, this lack of awareness of climate progress reinforces the sense that energy companies aren't acting in the public's interest - and creates fertile ground for conspiracy thinking about energy companies...
June 23, 2025 at 1:55 PM
More broadly, this lack of awareness of climate progress reinforces the sense that energy companies aren't acting in the public's interest - and creates fertile ground for conspiracy thinking about energy companies...
Something really striking about the energy transition in the UK is that, despite having halved our emissions since 1990, very few people are aware of this success - only a quarter of the public think we've made a meaningful difference to cutting our emissions
June 23, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Something really striking about the energy transition in the UK is that, despite having halved our emissions since 1990, very few people are aware of this success - only a quarter of the public think we've made a meaningful difference to cutting our emissions
Really strong connection between life satisfaction and voting intention - people with low life satisfaction are much more likely to take a risk on a smaller or newer party, Labour is only comfortably ahead on people who give their life satisfaction at 10/10
June 9, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Really strong connection between life satisfaction and voting intention - people with low life satisfaction are much more likely to take a risk on a smaller or newer party, Labour is only comfortably ahead on people who give their life satisfaction at 10/10
Similarly, recent performance of populist-right parties have been driven by attracting non habitual voters - see e.g. the AfD in Germany who won 2 million votes from nonvoters this year, or Trump who did particularly well with bringing non-voters to the ballot box.
May 31, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Similarly, recent performance of populist-right parties have been driven by attracting non habitual voters - see e.g. the AfD in Germany who won 2 million votes from nonvoters this year, or Trump who did particularly well with bringing non-voters to the ballot box.
Still, you can't necessarily take people’s word for it when they say they are likely to vote. But Reform's local election performance is best explained by habitual nonvoters turning out in large numbers - suggesting that these high likelihood to vote scores might be real.
May 31, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Still, you can't necessarily take people’s word for it when they say they are likely to vote. But Reform's local election performance is best explained by habitual nonvoters turning out in large numbers - suggesting that these high likelihood to vote scores might be real.
2024 nonvoters are having a big impact on voting intention polls at the moment - if we remove all of them from our headline voting intention, Reform's vote share falls from 31% to 26%, significantly shrinking their lead over Labour
May 31, 2025 at 1:35 PM
2024 nonvoters are having a big impact on voting intention polls at the moment - if we remove all of them from our headline voting intention, Reform's vote share falls from 31% to 26%, significantly shrinking their lead over Labour
The standout feature from Reform’s performance in the polls is not how many votes they are winning from the Conservatives and Labour, but how many they are gaining from non-voters. Whether or not these voters actually turn out will shape the next election - a 🧵
May 31, 2025 at 1:35 PM
The standout feature from Reform’s performance in the polls is not how many votes they are winning from the Conservatives and Labour, but how many they are gaining from non-voters. Whether or not these voters actually turn out will shape the next election - a 🧵
And finally this Sankey shows where all these changes are coming from - the Conservatives losing a big chunk of their votes to Reform, Labour losing votes in all directions, and Reform winning over a significant number of 2024 non-voters
May 28, 2025 at 7:06 AM
And finally this Sankey shows where all these changes are coming from - the Conservatives losing a big chunk of their votes to Reform, Labour losing votes in all directions, and Reform winning over a significant number of 2024 non-voters
Beneath the surface, fundamentals have remained fairly flat this week. Party leader approvals remain at
Farage -6 (nc)
Davey -6 (+1)
Badenoch -28 (nc)
Starmer -38 (nc)
And “none of the above” is still comfortably ahead in our Best PM tracker
Farage -6 (nc)
Davey -6 (+1)
Badenoch -28 (nc)
Starmer -38 (nc)
And “none of the above” is still comfortably ahead in our Best PM tracker
May 28, 2025 at 7:06 AM
Beneath the surface, fundamentals have remained fairly flat this week. Party leader approvals remain at
Farage -6 (nc)
Davey -6 (+1)
Badenoch -28 (nc)
Starmer -38 (nc)
And “none of the above” is still comfortably ahead in our Best PM tracker
Farage -6 (nc)
Davey -6 (+1)
Badenoch -28 (nc)
Starmer -38 (nc)
And “none of the above” is still comfortably ahead in our Best PM tracker
Worth taking a step back and seeing just how quickly things have changed in the last few months...
Six months ago this week, the Tories were on 30%, enjoying a 3pt lead over Labour and a 12pt lead over Reform. Now the Conservative and Reform numbers have essentially flipped.
Six months ago this week, the Tories were on 30%, enjoying a 3pt lead over Labour and a 12pt lead over Reform. Now the Conservative and Reform numbers have essentially flipped.
May 28, 2025 at 7:06 AM
Worth taking a step back and seeing just how quickly things have changed in the last few months...
Six months ago this week, the Tories were on 30%, enjoying a 3pt lead over Labour and a 12pt lead over Reform. Now the Conservative and Reform numbers have essentially flipped.
Six months ago this week, the Tories were on 30%, enjoying a 3pt lead over Labour and a 12pt lead over Reform. Now the Conservative and Reform numbers have essentially flipped.
🆕 Latest @moreincommonuk.bsky.social voting intention. The Tories fall below 20% for the first time in our tracking, and Reform reach above 30% for the first time too.
➡️ REF 31% (+1)
🌹 LAB 22% (nc)
🌳 CON 19% (-2)
🔶 LD 14% (nc)
🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
N = 2,000 | 23-26 May | Change w16-19
➡️ REF 31% (+1)
🌹 LAB 22% (nc)
🌳 CON 19% (-2)
🔶 LD 14% (nc)
🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
N = 2,000 | 23-26 May | Change w16-19
May 28, 2025 at 7:06 AM
🆕 Latest @moreincommonuk.bsky.social voting intention. The Tories fall below 20% for the first time in our tracking, and Reform reach above 30% for the first time too.
➡️ REF 31% (+1)
🌹 LAB 22% (nc)
🌳 CON 19% (-2)
🔶 LD 14% (nc)
🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
N = 2,000 | 23-26 May | Change w16-19
➡️ REF 31% (+1)
🌹 LAB 22% (nc)
🌳 CON 19% (-2)
🔶 LD 14% (nc)
🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
N = 2,000 | 23-26 May | Change w16-19
Sign of how things have changed on Twitter/X over the last year: In the 2024 local elections, Green gains won easily the most likes on Twitter. In this year's locals, those were overshadowed by people liking and engaging with Reform wins.
May 22, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Sign of how things have changed on Twitter/X over the last year: In the 2024 local elections, Green gains won easily the most likes on Twitter. In this year's locals, those were overshadowed by people liking and engaging with Reform wins.
At 30% of the vote, Reform UK have now effectively doubled their vote share since the General Election, drawing almost equal amounts of votes from the Conservatives, 2024 non-voters, and Labour and other left-wing parties
May 21, 2025 at 5:20 PM
At 30% of the vote, Reform UK have now effectively doubled their vote share since the General Election, drawing almost equal amounts of votes from the Conservatives, 2024 non-voters, and Labour and other left-wing parties
Interestingly there isn't a partisan divide on this, although when you look at our British Seven Segments, it is Disengaged Traditionalists who are most supportive
May 9, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Interestingly there isn't a partisan divide on this, although when you look at our British Seven Segments, it is Disengaged Traditionalists who are most supportive
Should you need to have GCSE maths and english to vote in UK elections? A fifth of Britons think so - and younger Britons are most supportive of the idea
May 9, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Should you need to have GCSE maths and english to vote in UK elections? A fifth of Britons think so - and younger Britons are most supportive of the idea
And interestingly, older Britons seem slightly less empathetic towards Reform voters' motivations as well
May 7, 2025 at 3:33 PM
And interestingly, older Britons seem slightly less empathetic towards Reform voters' motivations as well
One way to measure levels of polarisation between different voter groups is to assess whether people can understand or explain why people might vote for another party:
On this measure, Liberal Democrat voters are the least understanding of what might be driving people to Reform
On this measure, Liberal Democrat voters are the least understanding of what might be driving people to Reform
May 7, 2025 at 3:33 PM
One way to measure levels of polarisation between different voter groups is to assess whether people can understand or explain why people might vote for another party:
On this measure, Liberal Democrat voters are the least understanding of what might be driving people to Reform
On this measure, Liberal Democrat voters are the least understanding of what might be driving people to Reform
There has been lots of talk about a theoretical Tory-Reform pact at a national level - but look locally and around the country these parties will have to work together if they want to administer their county councils, where a Reform-Tory deal is the only way to get a majority.
May 2, 2025 at 5:30 PM
There has been lots of talk about a theoretical Tory-Reform pact at a national level - but look locally and around the country these parties will have to work together if they want to administer their county councils, where a Reform-Tory deal is the only way to get a majority.