Ed Hodgson
@edhodgsoned.bsky.social
Associate Director, Polling and Analysis, at More in Common
Interesting how much Bluesky usage has fallen - it is now about half of what it was in November 2024 - would be intrigued to know people's theories about why that is
July 31, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Interesting how much Bluesky usage has fallen - it is now about half of what it was in November 2024 - would be intrigued to know people's theories about why that is
Fascinated by this way of measuring a Prime Minister's popularity...
By the same measure, here's the number of babies given the first name of our PMs one year into office:
Keir: 0
Rishi: 37
Liz: 24
Boris: 43
Theresa: 20
David: 1,163
Gordon: 14
Tony: 135
Source: ONS
By the same measure, here's the number of babies given the first name of our PMs one year into office:
Keir: 0
Rishi: 37
Liz: 24
Boris: 43
Theresa: 20
David: 1,163
Gordon: 14
Tony: 135
Source: ONS
July 31, 2025 at 4:38 PM
Fascinated by this way of measuring a Prime Minister's popularity...
By the same measure, here's the number of babies given the first name of our PMs one year into office:
Keir: 0
Rishi: 37
Liz: 24
Boris: 43
Theresa: 20
David: 1,163
Gordon: 14
Tony: 135
Source: ONS
By the same measure, here's the number of babies given the first name of our PMs one year into office:
Keir: 0
Rishi: 37
Liz: 24
Boris: 43
Theresa: 20
David: 1,163
Gordon: 14
Tony: 135
Source: ONS
Every week we ask who Britons would vote for - this week we asked who they'd vote *against*
Here's what a negative voting intention looks like:
🌹Lab 23%
➡️ Ref: 22%
🌳 Con: 10%
🌏 Green: 4%
🐦 LD: 4%
Here's what a negative voting intention looks like:
🌹Lab 23%
➡️ Ref: 22%
🌳 Con: 10%
🌏 Green: 4%
🐦 LD: 4%
June 25, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Every week we ask who Britons would vote for - this week we asked who they'd vote *against*
Here's what a negative voting intention looks like:
🌹Lab 23%
➡️ Ref: 22%
🌳 Con: 10%
🌏 Green: 4%
🐦 LD: 4%
Here's what a negative voting intention looks like:
🌹Lab 23%
➡️ Ref: 22%
🌳 Con: 10%
🌏 Green: 4%
🐦 LD: 4%
Something really striking about the energy transition in the UK is that, despite having halved our emissions since 1990, very few people are aware of this success - only a quarter of the public think we've made a meaningful difference to cutting our emissions
June 23, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Something really striking about the energy transition in the UK is that, despite having halved our emissions since 1990, very few people are aware of this success - only a quarter of the public think we've made a meaningful difference to cutting our emissions
Great blog from Rory about where AI rhetoric and policy might reinforce a sense that the government isn't focusing on the issues that people care about
Shoutout to @edhodgsoned.bsky.social from More in Common for providing me with some focus group gold dust for my inaugural Substack.
open.substack.com/pub/roryevan...
open.substack.com/pub/roryevan...
The government should stop wasting its breath on AI.
Why tech bro energy is reinforcing negative public views of this government, and distracting from the things that might turn those views around.
open.substack.com
June 23, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Great blog from Rory about where AI rhetoric and policy might reinforce a sense that the government isn't focusing on the issues that people care about
Really strong connection between life satisfaction and voting intention - people with low life satisfaction are much more likely to take a risk on a smaller or newer party, Labour is only comfortably ahead on people who give their life satisfaction at 10/10
June 9, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Really strong connection between life satisfaction and voting intention - people with low life satisfaction are much more likely to take a risk on a smaller or newer party, Labour is only comfortably ahead on people who give their life satisfaction at 10/10
The standout feature from Reform’s performance in the polls is not how many votes they are winning from the Conservatives and Labour, but how many they are gaining from non-voters. Whether or not these voters actually turn out will shape the next election - a 🧵
May 31, 2025 at 1:35 PM
The standout feature from Reform’s performance in the polls is not how many votes they are winning from the Conservatives and Labour, but how many they are gaining from non-voters. Whether or not these voters actually turn out will shape the next election - a 🧵
I think this is really interesting and revealing polling, but also worth remembering that in a fragmented/multiparty system these head-to-heads matter less to national vote patterns - it makes no difference if a Green voter prefers Badenoch to Farage if they won't vote for either anyway
Going to keep saying it - the Farage effect is largely an illusion. Many, many more people loathe him than like him.
May 28, 2025 at 2:55 PM
I think this is really interesting and revealing polling, but also worth remembering that in a fragmented/multiparty system these head-to-heads matter less to national vote patterns - it makes no difference if a Green voter prefers Badenoch to Farage if they won't vote for either anyway
🆕 Latest @moreincommonuk.bsky.social voting intention. The Tories fall below 20% for the first time in our tracking, and Reform reach above 30% for the first time too.
➡️ REF 31% (+1)
🌹 LAB 22% (nc)
🌳 CON 19% (-2)
🔶 LD 14% (nc)
🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
N = 2,000 | 23-26 May | Change w16-19
➡️ REF 31% (+1)
🌹 LAB 22% (nc)
🌳 CON 19% (-2)
🔶 LD 14% (nc)
🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
N = 2,000 | 23-26 May | Change w16-19
May 28, 2025 at 7:06 AM
🆕 Latest @moreincommonuk.bsky.social voting intention. The Tories fall below 20% for the first time in our tracking, and Reform reach above 30% for the first time too.
➡️ REF 31% (+1)
🌹 LAB 22% (nc)
🌳 CON 19% (-2)
🔶 LD 14% (nc)
🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
N = 2,000 | 23-26 May | Change w16-19
➡️ REF 31% (+1)
🌹 LAB 22% (nc)
🌳 CON 19% (-2)
🔶 LD 14% (nc)
🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
N = 2,000 | 23-26 May | Change w16-19
Sign of how things have changed on Twitter/X over the last year: In the 2024 local elections, Green gains won easily the most likes on Twitter. In this year's locals, those were overshadowed by people liking and engaging with Reform wins.
May 22, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Sign of how things have changed on Twitter/X over the last year: In the 2024 local elections, Green gains won easily the most likes on Twitter. In this year's locals, those were overshadowed by people liking and engaging with Reform wins.
At 30% of the vote, Reform UK have now effectively doubled their vote share since the General Election, drawing almost equal amounts of votes from the Conservatives, 2024 non-voters, and Labour and other left-wing parties
May 21, 2025 at 5:20 PM
At 30% of the vote, Reform UK have now effectively doubled their vote share since the General Election, drawing almost equal amounts of votes from the Conservatives, 2024 non-voters, and Labour and other left-wing parties
Should you need to have GCSE maths and english to vote in UK elections? A fifth of Britons think so - and younger Britons are most supportive of the idea
May 9, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Should you need to have GCSE maths and english to vote in UK elections? A fifth of Britons think so - and younger Britons are most supportive of the idea
One way to measure levels of polarisation between different voter groups is to assess whether people can understand or explain why people might vote for another party:
On this measure, Liberal Democrat voters are the least understanding of what might be driving people to Reform
On this measure, Liberal Democrat voters are the least understanding of what might be driving people to Reform
May 7, 2025 at 3:33 PM
One way to measure levels of polarisation between different voter groups is to assess whether people can understand or explain why people might vote for another party:
On this measure, Liberal Democrat voters are the least understanding of what might be driving people to Reform
On this measure, Liberal Democrat voters are the least understanding of what might be driving people to Reform
Number of wards won with more than 50% of the vote:
🌹 Labour: 3 (!!)
💚 Greens: 9
🕴️ Independents: 14
🌳 Conservatives: 27
🐦 Liberal Democrats: 55
↗️ Reform: 66 (!!)
🌹 Labour: 3 (!!)
💚 Greens: 9
🕴️ Independents: 14
🌳 Conservatives: 27
🐦 Liberal Democrats: 55
↗️ Reform: 66 (!!)
May 2, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Number of wards won with more than 50% of the vote:
🌹 Labour: 3 (!!)
💚 Greens: 9
🕴️ Independents: 14
🌳 Conservatives: 27
🐦 Liberal Democrats: 55
↗️ Reform: 66 (!!)
🌹 Labour: 3 (!!)
💚 Greens: 9
🕴️ Independents: 14
🌳 Conservatives: 27
🐦 Liberal Democrats: 55
↗️ Reform: 66 (!!)
There has been lots of talk about a theoretical Tory-Reform pact at a national level - but look locally and around the country these parties will have to work together if they want to administer their county councils, where a Reform-Tory deal is the only way to get a majority.
May 2, 2025 at 5:30 PM
There has been lots of talk about a theoretical Tory-Reform pact at a national level - but look locally and around the country these parties will have to work together if they want to administer their county councils, where a Reform-Tory deal is the only way to get a majority.
Expect we will see more and more charts like this by the end of the day - an absolutely totalising rise of Reform in Staffordshire, which has be solidly Conservative for 16 years
May 2, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Expect we will see more and more charts like this by the end of the day - an absolutely totalising rise of Reform in Staffordshire, which has be solidly Conservative for 16 years
Reposted by Ed Hodgson
If Runcorn really is within 4 votes it would be the closest result in a by-election in modern history. Only 2 parliamentary by elections since World War 2 have been decided by fewer than 100 votes.
May 2, 2025 at 3:13 AM
If Runcorn really is within 4 votes it would be the closest result in a by-election in modern history. Only 2 parliamentary by elections since World War 2 have been decided by fewer than 100 votes.
Looking at initial data from Northumberland - it's revealing (and to some extent surprising) that Reform are performing best in the more Labour-y areas, and doing less well in more Conservative areas - could signal more worry for Labour later tonight
May 2, 2025 at 12:56 AM
Looking at initial data from Northumberland - it's revealing (and to some extent surprising) that Reform are performing best in the more Labour-y areas, and doing less well in more Conservative areas - could signal more worry for Labour later tonight
Turnout in Northumberland so far looks more or less spot on what it was in 2021
May 2, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Turnout in Northumberland so far looks more or less spot on what it was in 2021
Political nerdery is a finite resource... Interest on wikipedia for UK local elections peaked in 2021 and has been declining ever since
May 1, 2025 at 10:48 PM
Political nerdery is a finite resource... Interest on wikipedia for UK local elections peaked in 2021 and has been declining ever since
🔥 Putting my geography degree to good use and looking at some historic weather data - Today is Britain's hottest local election on record! Typically, warm weather can increase turnout, but today's unseasonably hot May day could have the opposite effect if it ends up TOO hot...
May 1, 2025 at 10:15 PM
🔥 Putting my geography degree to good use and looking at some historic weather data - Today is Britain's hottest local election on record! Typically, warm weather can increase turnout, but today's unseasonably hot May day could have the opposite effect if it ends up TOO hot...
Some dramatic age profiles for voting intention at these local elections:
Steep drop-off in Lab and Green support with age, Conservatives doing particularly well with the 75+ group, Reform winning among middle-aged voters
Steep drop-off in Lab and Green support with age, Conservatives doing particularly well with the 75+ group, Reform winning among middle-aged voters
May 1, 2025 at 6:26 PM
Some dramatic age profiles for voting intention at these local elections:
Steep drop-off in Lab and Green support with age, Conservatives doing particularly well with the 75+ group, Reform winning among middle-aged voters
Steep drop-off in Lab and Green support with age, Conservatives doing particularly well with the 75+ group, Reform winning among middle-aged voters
The big test for Reform at these local elections will be if they can convince their voters to come out to vote - in our polling, Reform voters are the LEAST likely to say they usually vote in locals, but the MOST likely to say they'll definitely vote in these ones
April 29, 2025 at 6:29 PM
The big test for Reform at these local elections will be if they can convince their voters to come out to vote - in our polling, Reform voters are the LEAST likely to say they usually vote in locals, but the MOST likely to say they'll definitely vote in these ones
We asked voters in this week's local elections to describe the four largest parties in England in a word - can you guess which is which?
April 29, 2025 at 4:06 PM
We asked voters in this week's local elections to describe the four largest parties in England in a word - can you guess which is which?
Our polling shows Reform are likely win the mayoralty in Hull and East Yorkshire next week - to find out why people are voting for Reform we’ve been holding focus groups across the mayoralty for the last week. Here’s what I learned from a group of voters in Hull on Thursday 🧵
We find the Hull and East Yorkshire Mayoral Race is too close to call with Reform's Luke Campbell leading the Conservative Anne Handley by 3 points and Liberal Democrat Mike Ross by 5.
➡️ REF UK 27%
🌳 CON 24%
🔶 LIB DEM 22%
🌹LAB 17%
🌍 GREEN 7%
🏵️ YORKSHIRE 4%
➡️ REF UK 27%
🌳 CON 24%
🔶 LIB DEM 22%
🌹LAB 17%
🌍 GREEN 7%
🏵️ YORKSHIRE 4%
April 27, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Our polling shows Reform are likely win the mayoralty in Hull and East Yorkshire next week - to find out why people are voting for Reform we’ve been holding focus groups across the mayoralty for the last week. Here’s what I learned from a group of voters in Hull on Thursday 🧵