As you might guess, while trending up is a good thing, 2% is not enough to fend off a potential price increase. So here I am asking again to help us keep our price an insanely affordable $45.95 for what you get. It's a great time to subscribe with our Midseason 50 out and the deadline coming up.

I was pushing hard for "Things are looking (O)blique".

while you're checking out our standings, please take a look at @bachlaw.bsky.social's introduction to 2025 PECOTA to see what's changed about the projection system and why we're particularly excited about some gains made on the pitching side:

It's a very challenging data issue because teams, players, and reporters might use terms interchangeably or with lack of specificity.

Jon Roegele, @MlBPlayerAnalys over on X, is the goat at tracking this. His database on TJ and IB procedures is incredible.

From what I understand, internal brace with full reconstruction is more about fortifying the new ligament, not about speeding recovery time.

This article has some more details about the distinctions.

www.nytimes.com/athletic/540...

However, surgeons are now including an internal brace even with full reconstruction. It makes it extremely challenging to know that everyone is talking about the same thing.

Repairing native ligament should be a quicker recovery than reconstruction. But it's not always an option.

Let me preface this first by saying I am very much not a doctor. But what we are trying to capture in the data is repair (repair native ligament, and fortify, adding internal brace) vs. full reconstruction with Tommy John Surgery (replaces UCL with tendon).

Cont.

I'd lean more towards the cynical side. They can absorb injuries because of the talent depth. I think they sign players who might have a riskier health profile because they know they have the depth.

We actually used projected WARP lost for this very reason. Its heat map in blue along the bottom.

Be on the lookout for these metrics to arrive on our leaderboards and player pages, and for them to become incorporated into our pitch models. We are thrilled about this work and hope you are as well!
www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

We have some of the best injury data and visualizations around, thanks to @drhoa3.bsky.social. He and @robmains.bsky.social write some great, insightful pieces using it throughout the year, like this one dissecting 2024's injury bug:

Who is playing you in this biopic?

There is definitely one logo that is out of date.

As extensive as these tools and articles are, they represent a small fraction of the content open to BP subscribers!

In addition to those constantly updated tools, @robmains.bsky.social and I publish many injury-related articles throughout the season. They feature Rob's great writing and analysis, accompanied by timely visuals to help dig into injury trends as they occur.

The Pain Points tool gives context to what injuries are spiking in a given year. For instance, the great hamstring plague of 2021. #neverforget