Matt Savoca
@draftaholic.bsky.social
Football, games, and data. R truther. Reformed spreadsheet warrior, mediocre crossworder | Prev: 4for4, FantasyFootballers, Stokastic | Prediction, not narration, is the real test of our understanding
Mahomes is a positive regression candidate in terms of production this season. The efficiency numbers dropped in 2024, but only a little bit. EPA and drive success rate numbers looked fine and drops affected CPOE (true for both QBs tbh)
September 5, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Mahomes is a positive regression candidate in terms of production this season. The efficiency numbers dropped in 2024, but only a little bit. EPA and drive success rate numbers looked fine and drops affected CPOE (true for both QBs tbh)
Quick Hits for Friday Night Football (Chargers vs. Chiefs)
Was a bit surprised to see both squads played faster and passed more than average in neutral game scripts in 24. Even with a run-oriented identity, Harbaugh trusts Herbert when game's in reach. KC happy to lean pass/fast
Was a bit surprised to see both squads played faster and passed more than average in neutral game scripts in 24. Even with a run-oriented identity, Harbaugh trusts Herbert when game's in reach. KC happy to lean pass/fast
September 5, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Quick Hits for Friday Night Football (Chargers vs. Chiefs)
Was a bit surprised to see both squads played faster and passed more than average in neutral game scripts in 24. Even with a run-oriented identity, Harbaugh trusts Herbert when game's in reach. KC happy to lean pass/fast
Was a bit surprised to see both squads played faster and passed more than average in neutral game scripts in 24. Even with a run-oriented identity, Harbaugh trusts Herbert when game's in reach. KC happy to lean pass/fast
Dak needs to be better at finishing drives. Say what you will about last year's supporting cast, but he didn't play up to his typical standards evidenced by middling Drive Success/EPA ad CPOE. Philly's def was #3 in Pass Y/A and #1 in Pts/Play allowed.
September 4, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Dak needs to be better at finishing drives. Say what you will about last year's supporting cast, but he didn't play up to his typical standards evidenced by middling Drive Success/EPA ad CPOE. Philly's def was #3 in Pass Y/A and #1 in Pts/Play allowed.
Quick Hits for Week 1 Thursday Night Football (DAL @ PHI):
Expecting plenty of passing. Obviously Dallas is built around airing it out, but Philly's not afraid to either, and passed more often than expected in neutral game scripts. Last year DAL Defense was #30 in Yd/Pass Att🧵
Expecting plenty of passing. Obviously Dallas is built around airing it out, but Philly's not afraid to either, and passed more often than expected in neutral game scripts. Last year DAL Defense was #30 in Yd/Pass Att🧵
September 4, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Quick Hits for Week 1 Thursday Night Football (DAL @ PHI):
Expecting plenty of passing. Obviously Dallas is built around airing it out, but Philly's not afraid to either, and passed more often than expected in neutral game scripts. Last year DAL Defense was #30 in Yd/Pass Att🧵
Expecting plenty of passing. Obviously Dallas is built around airing it out, but Philly's not afraid to either, and passed more often than expected in neutral game scripts. Last year DAL Defense was #30 in Yd/Pass Att🧵
one day left: get my showdown breakdowns, ownership data, and breakout receiver model analysis (+ so much more) for just $6.99 over at @4for4football.bsky.social
www.4for4.com/plans
www.4for4.com/plans
December 2, 2024 at 6:03 PM
one day left: get my showdown breakdowns, ownership data, and breakout receiver model analysis (+ so much more) for just $6.99 over at @4for4football.bsky.social
www.4for4.com/plans
www.4for4.com/plans
never a good sign (if you like offense) when you can't find the QBs on the efficiency charts when breaking down a game
November 20, 2024 at 4:51 PM
never a good sign (if you like offense) when you can't find the QBs on the efficiency charts when breaking down a game
Breakout Receiver Model is now live for Week 11 over at 4for4 Football.
Check out my top buy-lows and sell highs (and some solid DFS main slate values) over at 4for4 ($):
www.4for4.com/2024/w11/bre...
Check out my top buy-lows and sell highs (and some solid DFS main slate values) over at 4for4 ($):
www.4for4.com/2024/w11/bre...
November 20, 2024 at 4:51 PM
Breakout Receiver Model is now live for Week 11 over at 4for4 Football.
Check out my top buy-lows and sell highs (and some solid DFS main slate values) over at 4for4 ($):
www.4for4.com/2024/w11/bre...
Check out my top buy-lows and sell highs (and some solid DFS main slate values) over at 4for4 ($):
www.4for4.com/2024/w11/bre...
Exploring NFL usage by share of team expected fantasy points (XFP), which weighs where/when/how players are utilized. Tells us how teams wanted to use their skill position players. Charts explained in this 🧵
First up, the NFC South, tied (with the NFC West) for the lowest total expected wins.
First up, the NFC South, tied (with the NFC West) for the lowest total expected wins.
November 20, 2024 at 4:51 PM
Exploring NFL usage by share of team expected fantasy points (XFP), which weighs where/when/how players are utilized. Tells us how teams wanted to use their skill position players. Charts explained in this 🧵
First up, the NFC South, tied (with the NFC West) for the lowest total expected wins.
First up, the NFC South, tied (with the NFC West) for the lowest total expected wins.