alex chamberlain
@dolphhauldhagen.bsky.social
sabermetric has-been. he/him
can't always be sure if i used a word correctly (news flash: i did) but i CAN always be sure that the AI summary is going to be unhinged
November 4, 2025 at 7:56 AM
can't always be sure if i used a word correctly (news flash: i did) but i CAN always be sure that the AI summary is going to be unhinged
figured out why the dodgers lost yesterday
October 26, 2025 at 12:45 AM
figured out why the dodgers lost yesterday
no one gives a shit except for maybe @timjacksonsays.bsky.social but i'm devastated i'll be missing this hometown show (my hometown, not TWY's). chain is the best, seriously unfathomably to me they're playing it again after all these years
October 23, 2025 at 6:00 AM
no one gives a shit except for maybe @timjacksonsays.bsky.social but i'm devastated i'll be missing this hometown show (my hometown, not TWY's). chain is the best, seriously unfathomably to me they're playing it again after all these years
proud to say i was ahead of the curve on today's nonsense
October 14, 2025 at 10:55 PM
proud to say i was ahead of the curve on today's nonsense
i'd like you to take a look at my abs
September 23, 2025 at 7:08 PM
i'd like you to take a look at my abs
just remembered i wrote trevor rogers' comment for the baseball prospectus annual. enjoy:
September 11, 2025 at 10:34 PM
just remembered i wrote trevor rogers' comment for the baseball prospectus annual. enjoy:
an unusual flex: i have all three of this year's 4-homer guys on one roster
August 29, 2025 at 3:08 AM
an unusual flex: i have all three of this year's 4-homer guys on one roster
it's a house of cards, but it's held together by super glue baby
August 25, 2025 at 9:34 PM
it's a house of cards, but it's held together by super glue baby
min. 350 PA over the last two years. also 7th in average EV. .440 xwOBAcon during that time. 2nd in hard-hit rate this year, min. 170 PA. this is a romy gonzalez stan account
July 30, 2025 at 9:25 PM
min. 350 PA over the last two years. also 7th in average EV. .440 xwOBAcon during that time. 2nd in hard-hit rate this year, min. 170 PA. this is a romy gonzalez stan account
too early to take a victory lap but trevor rogers is up ~2 mph over last year and just delivered one of the best starts of his career
June 24, 2025 at 7:30 AM
too early to take a victory lap but trevor rogers is up ~2 mph over last year and just delivered one of the best starts of his career
one last thing: you can find implied miss distance (IMD) on the pitch leaderboard under 'bat tracking'
a nice place to start is MLB-wide benchmarks. the average IMD for four-seamers is -3.7"—so while 0" is probably very bad, -3" may be nothing to write home about
public.tableau.com/app/profile/...
a nice place to start is MLB-wide benchmarks. the average IMD for four-seamers is -3.7"—so while 0" is probably very bad, -3" may be nothing to write home about
public.tableau.com/app/profile/...
June 9, 2025 at 8:00 PM
one last thing: you can find implied miss distance (IMD) on the pitch leaderboard under 'bat tracking'
a nice place to start is MLB-wide benchmarks. the average IMD for four-seamers is -3.7"—so while 0" is probably very bad, -3" may be nothing to write home about
public.tableau.com/app/profile/...
a nice place to start is MLB-wide benchmarks. the average IMD for four-seamers is -3.7"—so while 0" is probably very bad, -3" may be nothing to write home about
public.tableau.com/app/profile/...
addendum and fairly obvious omission: whiff rate by implied miss distance (IMD) color-coded by xwOBAcon
the physical space in the top of (and above) the zone where fastballs accrue whiffs is smaller than the bottom (and below) where offspeed/breaking accrue whiffs—so IMDs for FFs tend to be smaller
the physical space in the top of (and above) the zone where fastballs accrue whiffs is smaller than the bottom (and below) where offspeed/breaking accrue whiffs—so IMDs for FFs tend to be smaller
June 9, 2025 at 6:44 PM
addendum and fairly obvious omission: whiff rate by implied miss distance (IMD) color-coded by xwOBAcon
the physical space in the top of (and above) the zone where fastballs accrue whiffs is smaller than the bottom (and below) where offspeed/breaking accrue whiffs—so IMDs for FFs tend to be smaller
the physical space in the top of (and above) the zone where fastballs accrue whiffs is smaller than the bottom (and below) where offspeed/breaking accrue whiffs—so IMDs for FFs tend to be smaller
just realized in the original graph that i inverted LA–AA as AA–LA instead, so it's all flipped. it doesn't change the outcomes, just the visual
here it is if i had done it correctly the first time
here it is if i had done it correctly the first time
June 2, 2025 at 7:21 PM
just realized in the original graph that i inverted LA–AA as AA–LA instead, so it's all flipped. it doesn't change the outcomes, just the visual
here it is if i had done it correctly the first time
here it is if i had done it correctly the first time
each line is pitch vertical approach angle (VAA) in half-degree buckets (0.5°), showing average difference between launch angle and attack angle (LA–AA, below) by attack angle
LA–AA is optimized (i.e., ~0°) at:
• 9° AA for -8° VAA
• 12° AA for -7.5° VAA
• 14.5° AA for -7° VAA
• 15° AA for -6.5° VAA
LA–AA is optimized (i.e., ~0°) at:
• 9° AA for -8° VAA
• 12° AA for -7.5° VAA
• 14.5° AA for -7° VAA
• 15° AA for -6.5° VAA
June 2, 2025 at 7:19 PM
each line is pitch vertical approach angle (VAA) in half-degree buckets (0.5°), showing average difference between launch angle and attack angle (LA–AA, below) by attack angle
LA–AA is optimized (i.e., ~0°) at:
• 9° AA for -8° VAA
• 12° AA for -7.5° VAA
• 14.5° AA for -7° VAA
• 15° AA for -6.5° VAA
LA–AA is optimized (i.e., ~0°) at:
• 9° AA for -8° VAA
• 12° AA for -7.5° VAA
• 14.5° AA for -7° VAA
• 15° AA for -6.5° VAA
just looking at raw frequencies (and not at square-up rate) it's interesting to see how evenly distributed aaron judge's (blue) misses are compared to, say, jackson chourio (purple)
May 29, 2025 at 7:00 AM
just looking at raw frequencies (and not at square-up rate) it's interesting to see how evenly distributed aaron judge's (blue) misses are compared to, say, jackson chourio (purple)
interestingly, but also unsurprisingly, swing% peaks where the implied miss is zero—which goes to show how good pro hitters actually are
i think 2025 samples are too small to make anything of them, but it is nevertheless interesting to randomly compare brice turang (mustard) to bryce harper (coral)
i think 2025 samples are too small to make anything of them, but it is nevertheless interesting to randomly compare brice turang (mustard) to bryce harper (coral)
May 29, 2025 at 6:55 AM
interestingly, but also unsurprisingly, swing% peaks where the implied miss is zero—which goes to show how good pro hitters actually are
i think 2025 samples are too small to make anything of them, but it is nevertheless interesting to randomly compare brice turang (mustard) to bryce harper (coral)
i think 2025 samples are too small to make anything of them, but it is nevertheless interesting to randomly compare brice turang (mustard) to bryce harper (coral)
building on the idea that we can reverse-engineer location expectation, i looked at miss distance implied by the hitter's swing path tilt for any given pitch height
(1) unsurprisingly, misses erring low produce more pop-ups; erring high, more grounders
(2) which leads to poorer ability to square up
(1) unsurprisingly, misses erring low produce more pop-ups; erring high, more grounders
(2) which leads to poorer ability to square up
May 29, 2025 at 6:55 AM
building on the idea that we can reverse-engineer location expectation, i looked at miss distance implied by the hitter's swing path tilt for any given pitch height
(1) unsurprisingly, misses erring low produce more pop-ups; erring high, more grounders
(2) which leads to poorer ability to square up
(1) unsurprisingly, misses erring low produce more pop-ups; erring high, more grounders
(2) which leads to poorer ability to square up