Dennis Novy
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dennisnovy.bsky.social
Dennis Novy
@dennisnovy.bsky.social
1.2K followers 360 following 10 posts
Chief Economist & Director of Analysis at FCDO, Professor of Economics at University of Warwick, CEP/LSE, CEPR.
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dennisnovy.bsky.social
cepr.org/about/news/d...
Dennis Novy appointed Chief Economist and Director of Analysis at the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO)
Congratulations to CEPR Research Fellow Dennis Novy for his appointment as Chief Economist and Director of Analysis at the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO)
cepr.org
October 11, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Reposted by Dennis Novy
inomics.bsky.social
Congratulations to Prof. Dennis Novy (@dennisnovy.bsky.social) appointed Chief Economist and Director of Analysis at the UK’s Foreign Office (FCDO).
An inspiring example of academic insight informing global policy.
🔗 Read the full story: https://inomics.link/warwick-bsky
#Econsky #PublicPolicy
University of Warwick Professor Dennis Novy Appointed Chief Economist at UK Foreign Office 3 Practical questions, generated by our AI model
Professor Dennis Novy from the University of Warwick's Department of Economics has taken up his role as Chief Economist and Director of Analysis at the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO).
inomics.link
October 7, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Reposted by Dennis Novy
cagewarwick.bsky.social
Congratulations to CAGE Impact Director @dennisnovy.bsky.social on his appointment to the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office as the lead economic adviser to the Foreign Secretary on the UK’s foreign and international development policy.
Dennis Novy becomes lead economic advisor to the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office
Congratulations to CAGE Impact Director, Dennis Novy who has been appointed as Chief Economist and Director of Analysis at the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO).
buff.ly
October 3, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Reposted by Dennis Novy
cagewarwick.bsky.social
When the US administration hiked tariffs on imports from China in 2018/19, research shows that imports from Mexico filled the gap.

@dennisnovy.bsky.social & Natalie Chen discuss the benefits an earlier hike in US tariffs had on Mexico’s exports and employment for #Advantage. 📰

buff.ly/tbn0LUY
How US tariffs against China provided a boost for Mexican exports and employment
In 2018 and 2019, the US administration hiked tariffs on imports from China. Research shows that imports from Mexico filled the gap, resulting in more employment and higher wages in the Mexican…
buff.ly
September 23, 2025 at 9:01 AM
Reposted by Dennis Novy
etolva.bsky.social
🎉Very happy to share that I joined the University of Lisbon’s School of Economics and Management (ISEG) as an Invited Assistant Professor this September🎉.

Excited to be in a great academic environment and a great city! If you’re in Lisbon (or just passing through), feel free to drop me an email!
September 5, 2025 at 11:06 AM
dennisnovy.bsky.social
Great programme for the CEP/LSE-Warwick Junior Trade Workshop on 22 September
@cep-lse.bsky.social @warwickecon.bsky.social

cep.lse.ac.uk/textonly/_ne...
September 4, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Reposted by Dennis Novy
voxeu.org
Lack of dollar availability & connections with a Chinese state-owned bank played a key role in promoting #renminbi use in Argentina, with the share of imports from China invoiced in renminbi having surged from zero to nearly 50% in 2023.
Felipe Benguria, Dennis Novy
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Graph showing the share of transactions invoiced in renminbi and the share of value invoiced in renminbi for imports from China to Argentina from January 2022 to June 2024. The US dollar has traditionally dominated the invoicing of international trade. But could other currencies one day replace it? This column examines a unique policy experiment in Argentina in 2023. Amid a severe dollar shortage, Argentina expanded its currency swap agreement with the People’s Bank of China. The share of imports from China invoiced in renminbi surged rapidly from zero to nearly 50%, displacing the US dollar. Using rich firm-level data on trade and banking, the authors show that lack of dollar availability and connections with a Chinese state-owned bank played a key role in promoting renminbi use.
July 15, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Reposted by Dennis Novy
cep-lse.bsky.social
Felipe Benguria and @dennisnovy.bsky.social on a unique policy experiment in Argentina.

cepr.org/voxeu/colum...
The battle for trade currency dominance: The dollar vs the renminbi in Argentina
The US dollar has traditionally dominated the invoicing of international trade. But could other currencies one day replace it? This column examines a unique policy experiment in Argentina in 2023. Amid a severe dollar shortage, Argentina expanded its currency swap agreement with the People’s Bank of China. The share of imports from China invoiced in renminbi surged rapidly from zero to nearly 50%, displacing the US dollar. Using rich firm-level data on trade and banking, the authors show that lack of dollar availability and connections with a Chinese state-owned bank played a key role in promoting renminbi use.
cepr.org
July 14, 2025 at 12:00 PM
dennisnovy.bsky.social
Call for papers

The CEP/LSE – Warwick Junior Trade Workshop will bring together PhD students in the field of international economics for job market paper presentations and discussions. @warwickecon.bsky.social @cep-lse.bsky.social

Submit papers by 27 July.

More ➡️ cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/events/...
July 4, 2025 at 11:54 AM
Reposted by Dennis Novy
voxeu.org
In 2018-2019, the #US administration hiked #tariffs on imports from #China. As a result, imports from #Mexico partly filled the gap, leading to an export and #employment surge in Mexico.
Natalie Chen, Dennis Novy, Diego Solórzano
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Graph showing the shares of US goods imports from China and from Mexico in total US goods imports between 2010 and 2023. There is a red line that marks the start of the trade war in 2018, which is then followed by a drop in imports from China and a smaller increase in imports from Mexico. In 2018 and 2019, the US administration hiked tariffs on imports from China. This column shows that imports from Mexico partly filled the gap, leading to an export and employment surge in Mexico. Using highly disaggregated firm-level data on Mexican exports, combined with detailed employer-employee data, the authors find that US tariffs against China resulted in more employment and higher wages in the Mexican export sector, especially for lower-wage workers such as female, unskilled, and younger employees. The effects were concentrated in technology and skill-intensive manufacturing industries such as chemicals and automotives.
June 23, 2025 at 8:16 AM
Reposted by Dennis Novy
meredith-crowley.bsky.social
The New Global Economy: Trade Wars and De-dollarisation?

Submissions deadline: 1 July 2025

Conference dates: 27-28 September 2025

Location: Cambridge UK
cepr.org Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · May 29
#CallforPapers for the conference 'The New Global Economy: Trade Wars & De-dollarisation?'
Deadline: 1 July
Organisers: @meredith-crowley.bsky.social @uniofcam.bsky.social , Lu Han @bankofcanada.ca, Dmitry Mukhin , Ben Tomlin @bankofcanada.ca

More and submit your paper
cepr.org/events/new-g...
June 19, 2025 at 1:50 PM
dennisnovy.bsky.social
“Tariffs and Their Implications”

Free to join on 30 April

With

- Teresa Fort
- Jacob J. Lew
- David E. Weinstein
- Jeffry Frieden
- Dennis Novy

@columbiaigp.bsky.social
@columbiauniversity.bsky.social
@columbiasipa.bsky.social
April 25, 2025 at 9:24 AM
dennisnovy.bsky.social
What is the effect of heightened uncertainty on international trade?

➡️ Trade reacts more strongly than domestic economic activity.

Our research:

Trade and Uncertainty | The Review of Economics and Statistics | MIT Press ⁦‪@restatjournal‬⁩.bsky.social

direct.mit.edu/rest/article...
Trade and Uncertainty
Abstract. We offer a new explanation as to why international trade is so volatile in response to economic shocks. Our approach combines the idea of uncertainty shocks with international trade. Firms o...
direct.mit.edu
April 10, 2025 at 2:31 PM
dennisnovy.bsky.social
Great to see our recent PhD student Edoardo Tolva’s paper on the ISoT program.

Joint work with Cristoforoni, Errico and Rodari on “Oligopolies in Trade and Transportation” with great micro data from Chile

@etolva.bsky.social @warwickecon.bsky.social
@jintlecon.bsky.social
jintlecon.bsky.social Journal of International Economics @jintlecon.bsky.social · Apr 8
📢 We are excited to share the agenda for the inaugural International Seminar on Trade (ISoT)! 📄

📍 World Bank, Washington D.C.
🗓️ 5-6 May 2025
Co-organized by @jintlecon.bsky.social, @banquedefrance-off.bsky.social, @cepr.org, World Bank and Uni of Surrey
April 9, 2025 at 8:50 AM
Reposted by Dennis Novy
thomsampson.bsky.social
New AEJ:Macro paper with Breinlich, Leromain & @dennisnovy.bsky.social

Tests an old Paul Krugman idea: does import protection promote exports through industry-level scale economies?

Find scale economies do operate, but there is also an offsetting supply chain effect 1/

bsky.app/profile/aeaj...
March 31, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Reposted by Dennis Novy
aeajournals.bsky.social
AEJ: Macroeconomics: "Import Liberalization as Export Destruction? Evidence from the United States" by Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain, Dennis Novy, and Thomas Sampson. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Import Liberalization as Export Destruction? Evidence from the United States
(Forthcoming Article) - In trade models with scale economies import liberalization reduces exports within industries by shrinking real market potential. We find this export destruction mechanism reduc...
www.aeaweb.org
March 18, 2025 at 1:00 PM
dennisnovy.bsky.social
🚩 Call for papers 🚩

2nd Midlands Trade & Investment Network ECR Conference

Birmingham, United Kingdom
25 June 2025

t.co/tHORzmixdI
March 14, 2025 at 3:53 PM
dennisnovy.bsky.social
New trade theory: Victor Norman, Avinash Dixit, and how it started at Warwick University in 1976
⁦
@cage_warwick @warwickecon
⁩
@BaldwinRE @PrincetonEcon

warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econ...
Victor Norman: A pioneer of trade theory
Victor Norman, a prominent Norwegian economist and leading figure in international economics passed away last year.
warwick.ac.uk
January 23, 2025 at 12:58 PM
dennisnovy.bsky.social
Great interview:

@douglasirwin.bsky.social on US trade policy — past and present

By @alanbeattie.bsky.social

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
Trump and the history of tariffs. With Doug Irwin
Podcast Episode · The Economics Show · 20/01/2025 · 43m
podcasts.apple.com
January 21, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Reposted by Dennis Novy
cagewarwick.bsky.social
📰Can Europe find its way through the woods in 2025?
Dennis Novy @dennisnovy.bsky.social discusses the challenges for the German economy and its industries in an interview for The New European archive.ph/0XcSv
January 16, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Reposted by Dennis Novy
thomsampson.bsky.social
New research. How has Brexit affected UK trade?

We find TCA reduced goods exports by 6.4%, imports by 3.1%

Smaller firms hardest hit. Around 16,400 firms stopped exporting to the EU entirely

But larger firms' exports unaffected, contributing to relatively small fall in overall trade 1/
December 18, 2024 at 9:27 AM
Reposted by Dennis Novy
thomsampson.bsky.social
Nice FT write-up of our new Brexit & trade paper by the always excellent @pmdfoster.bsky.social

Rightly notes that our findings (goods exports⬇️6.4% due to TCA, imports ⬇️3.1%) suggest OBR's forecast (long-run trade ⬇️15%) may be an over-estimate of the impact of Brexit

on.ft.com/4iK8esS
Brexit hit to UK trade less than predicted, says study
Larger companies have adapted to red tape at the border, according to London School of Economics research
on.ft.com
December 18, 2024 at 11:26 AM
Reposted by Dennis Novy
etolva.bsky.social
Hey #EconSky! I am on the market this year.

Check my profile for the thread with the paper!

You can find all the other great candidates from Warwick at @warwickecon.bsky.social
warwickecon.bsky.social Warwick Economics @warwickecon.bsky.social · Nov 27
Edoardo Tolva's job market paper uses the Russian airspace closure as a quasi-experiment to estimate the elasticity between transport modes and develops a model to measure its impact on welfare.

Find out more: buff.ly/4hTFEEZ

#EconJobMarket
November 27, 2024 at 1:32 PM