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Centre for Economic Policy Research
@cepr.org
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CEPR, established in 1983, is an independent, non‐partisan, pan‐European non‐profit organization. Its mission is to enhance the quality of policy decisions through providing policy‐relevant research, based soundly in economic theory.
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Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · Dec 14
go.bsky.app/FumzhXZ
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CEPR Discussion Papers Week Ending 09/11/2025 -

mailchi.mp/cepr/cepr-di...
CEPR Discussion Papers Week Ending 09/11/2025 - https://mailchi.mp/cepr/cepr-discussion-papers-week-ending-13568711
November 10, 2025 at 12:04 PM
cepr.org
The CEPR Advanced Forum in Financial Economics (CAFFE) continues on 11 Nov @ 14:00 CET.

Yigitcan Karabulut (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management & CEPR) presents 'Business Education and Portfolio Returns'

cepr.org/events/event...
#EconSky
November 10, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
Daniel Garcia-Macia, Siddharth Kothari, & Yifan Tao argue that factor misallocation from industrial policies in #China reduces domestic aggregate total factor productivity by about 1.2%. Scaling back industrial policy would lower fiscal costs and raise productivity.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Figure showing industrial policy support by instrument over time as a percent of GDP. The instruments are: taxes, subsidies, credit, and land. Adding up the four instruments, industrial policy support is estimated to be about 4% of GDP as of 2023. Results for listed firms are extrapolated to all firms, correcting for the disproportionate share of tax revenue contributed by listed firms. China uses a wide array of industrial policies, such as subsidies and regulations, to promote strategic economic sectors. This column estimates that the equivalent fiscal cost of industrial policy is about 4% of GDP per year, with support directed largely at the manufacturing sector. Different policy instruments have varying effects: subsidies tend to lead to inefficiently high production, while trade and regulatory barriers limit production to suboptimal levels. Overall, factor misallocation from industrial policies reduces domestic aggregate total factor productivity by about 1.2%. Scaling back industrial policy would lower fiscal costs and raise productivity.
November 10, 2025 at 9:18 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
Patrick Imam and Tigran Poghosyan show that despite earlier and sharper tightening, inflation targeting central banks did not achieve systematically better outcomes than their non-targeting peers during the 2022 global inflation surge.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
The figure illustrates how inflation expectations shifted after the 2022 inflation surge, together with their 90-95% confidence intervals. In both inflation targeting and non-inflation-targeting countries, expectations for the year ahead increased by roughly one percentage point, while longer-term expectations remained stable, indicating that credibility held up across regimes. See Imam and Poghosyan (2025) for details of the empirical analysis. The 2022 global inflation surge tested inflation-targeting frameworks under severe supply shocks. This column shows that, despite earlier and sharper tightening, inflation targeting central banks did not achieve systematically better outcomes than their non-targeting peers. Instead, credibility and timely action mattered more than institutional labels. As supply shocks driven by geopolitics, climate change, and the energy transition become more frequent, inflation targeting frameworks will need to adapt and evolve to remain effective in this new environment.
November 10, 2025 at 9:16 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
A Kato & H Nishiyama find regional trade agreements have positive effects on exports to other countries from overseas Japanese manufacturing multinationals, suggesting that they have optimised their cross-border supply chain networks through free trade agreements.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Chart showing activities of overseas Japanese affiliates by region. Data source: METI, the Basic Survey on Oversea Business Activities Studies examining the effects of free trade agreements on the activities of multinational enterprises have tended to focus on trade between home countries and their FTA partner countries. This column examines the effects of free trade agreements on local sales and exports to third countries by overseas affiliates of Japanese manufacturing multinationals. While the effects on local sales are ambiguous, regional trade agreements have positive effects on exports to other countries, suggesting that that Japanese multinationals have optimised their cross-border supply chain networks by utilising various forms of free trade agreements.
November 10, 2025 at 9:15 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
8-hour workday led to + employment in Denmark, especially among unskilled & female workers. Earnings fell in provincial towns but less in Copenhagen, where union membership was higher & wages rose to offset shorter hours.
M Fredagsvik Gunnesmo, C Worm Hansen
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Average hours worked in Denmark from 1872 to 1925. The dashed line represents the collective bargaining reform. We observe country-level average working hours between 1872 and 1911, but with gaps. We calculate the 1914–1925 values from occupation-level data. Hours are interpolated where data is missing: several intervals between 1872 and 1911, and between 1914 and 1919. In recent years, calls for shorter working weeks have re-emerged in Europe and elsewhere. This column examines how Denmark’s 1919 shift to the eight-hour workday affected labour market outcomes such as hourly wages, weekly earnings, and employment. Weekly earnings fell in provincial towns but less so in Copenhagen, where union membership was higher and hourly wages rose partly to offset shorter hours. Employment increased everywhere, especially among unskilled and female workers. Decentralised wage bargaining appears to have allowed for partial wage compensation and employment expansion.
November 10, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
Ottmar Edenhofer @pik-potsdam.bsky.social talks with @talknormal.co.uk about how to make carbon removal work and what policies are needed to turn it from theory into practice.

cepr.org/multimedia/h...

#EconSky
Graphic promoting a VoxTalks podcast with Ottmar Edenhofer titled 'How to make carbon removal work', featuring an illustration of a hand capping an industrial smokestack emitting blue smoke on a red background.
November 7, 2025 at 4:27 PM
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📢 #CallforPapers - Simplifying banking regulation and supervision without sacrificing safety
Deadline: 9 Jan 2026
Interested parties should submit their draft papers and any queries to Martin Birn of the Basel Committee's Secretariat at Martin.Birn[at]bis[dot]org.
cepr.org/events/simpl...
#EconSky
November 7, 2025 at 2:55 PM
cepr.org
📢 #CallforPapers - 15th MoFiR Workshop on Banking
Deadline: 12 Jan 2026
Co-sponsored by Università degli Studi dell'Insubria & the European Commission's Joint Research Centre. Submissions of theoretical & empirical research on financial intermediation are invited.
cepr.org/events/15th-...
#EconSky
November 7, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
K Aoki, A Auerbach, C Yuji Horioka, A Kashyap, T Watanabe, & D Weinstein discuss the legacy of Takatoshi Ito. His work is notable for challenging the perception that standard economic analysis is somehow ill-suited for understanding the Japanese economy.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Takatoshi Ito, who passed away in September 2025, was a leading scholar of macroeconomics and international finance. This column, written by a group of friends and colleagues, outlines his many contributions in a lifetime of research, teaching, and policymaking in Japan, the US, and around the world. His work is particularly notable for challenging the widespread perception that standard economic analysis is somehow ill-suited for understanding the Japanese economy. Indeed, using the discipline’s rigorous tools, he illuminated challenges that Japan faced earlier and more acutely than other countries – including population decline and ageing, ballooning government debt, the zero lower bound and unconventional monetary policies, real estate bubbles and their collapse, and the banking sector’s problem of non-performing loans.
November 7, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
O Itskhoki & D Mukhin add to the ongoing debate on the implications of global imbalances for trade policy & argue tariffs can close a persistent trade deficit if & only if they change the value of, or the returns on, the country's international finance position.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
While the Trump administration has offered multiple justifications for imposing tariffs, none has been as prominently cited as the goal of reducing trade deficits. This column contributes to the ongoing debate on the implications of global imbalances for trade policy, arguing that tariffs can close a persistent trade deficit if and only if they change the value of, or the returns on, the country’s international financial position. The authors also discuss whether it is optimal to increase tariffs when trade is imbalanced, and whether tariffs can account for the large depreciation of the dollar in the first half of 2025.
November 7, 2025 at 9:04 AM
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The CEPR Virtual Industrial Organisation Seminar #VIOS Series continues on 12 November featuring @marit.hinnosaar.net presenting: 'Influencer Cartels'
Discussant: Matthew Mitchell
More info and register: cepr.org/events/event...
#EconSky #Webinar
November 6, 2025 at 2:42 PM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
China's Belt & Road Initiative triggered strategic & divergent responses among major investment countries. The US increased investment in signatory countries, largely driven by strategic competition, while the UK reduced investment.
Y Todo, S Nishitateno, S Brown
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Graph showing the impact that an FDI target country signing an MOU MOU between China and that country has on US FDI. China’s Belt and Road Initiative has reshaped international economic and political ties among countries and reorganised global value chains. This column reveals that the initiative has triggered strategic and divergent responses among major investor countries, depending on their economic and political relationships with China. The US increased its investment in countries after they signed BRI agreements with China, largely driven by strategic competition, while the UK reduced investment, reflecting concerns over political and supply chain risks linked to China. Japan’s investment in BRI countries appears to be largely unaffected by its strategic stance toward China.
November 6, 2025 at 9:26 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
E Dabla-Norris, D Furceri, Z Munkacsi, & G Sher show reallocating spending to infrastructure, education, health, & R&D and closing efficiency gaps can raise GDP by 11% in EMDEs and 4% in advanced economies, without increases in total spending.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Graph of long-term output gains from reallocating spending (percent). The bars show long-term output gains due to a permanent increase, in the expenditure categories listed in the legend, of 1% of GDP in 2025, funded by a cut in public consumption. With high public debt and weak medium-term growth, finance ministries seek to do more with less. This column argues that efficiency gaps in public spending stand at about 30-40% globally and are pronounced in infrastructure investment and R&D spending. Using empirical and model-based analysis, it shows that reallocating spending to infrastructure, education, health, and R&D and closing efficiency gaps can raise GDP by 11% in emerging market and developing economies and 4% in advanced economies, over the long term, and crucially without increases in total spending.
November 6, 2025 at 9:23 AM
cepr.org
Reminder! Our Economics of Longevity & Ageing webinar series kicks off this month, on 19 Nov!
With Amy Finkelstein Massachusetts Institute of Technology presenting 'Elderly Health & Longevity in the US'
Register: https://cepr.org/events/event-series/economics-longevity-ageing-webinar-series
#EconSky
November 5, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxdev.bsky.social
What have we learned about training entrepreneurs?

Issue 4 of our VoxDevLit on Training Entrepreneurs by @dmckenzie.bsky.social, Christopher Woodruff & Co-Editors is out now!➡️ voxdev.org/voxdevlit/tr...

Today's podcast covers the update➡️ voxdev.org/topic/firms/...
November 5, 2025 at 11:15 AM
cepr.org
📢 #CallForPapers - BIS-CEPR-Gerzensee-SFI Conference on Financial Intermediation 2026
A few more weeks to submit your paper for a #conference on financial intermediation.
Deadline to submit a paper: 21 November 2025
Learn more and submit a paper: cepr.org/events/bis-c...
#EconSky #EconConf
November 5, 2025 at 11:24 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
kiel.institute
Join us tomorrow for the next Kiel-CEPR Research Seminar with Paula Bustos @upf.edu, who will discuss how climate change and market frictions shape labor and capital reallocation in Brazil
📍Berlin & online, register here 👉 www.kielinstitut.de/institute/ev...
@cepr.org
November 5, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
M Aquilina, G Gelos, A Schrimpf, & S Zhu highlight two recent advances in the use of #AI tools to anticipate financial market stress. The tools can help policymakers monitor emerging risks in real time, combining quantitative forecast & qualitative insights.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Graph showing the predictive accuracy of market dysfunction episodes. True data: 20-day average of the daily euro-yen triangular arbitrage parity difference with the US dollar as the vehicle currency, calculated on a minute-by-minute basis. The vertical red dashed line represents the end of the training period, end-2020; everything to the right of this line is considered pseudo out-of-sample. Predicting financial market stress is a significant challenge, as traditional models often fail to capture complex and nonlinear dynamics. This column highlights two recent advances in the use of AI tools to anticipate financial market stress. The first is a novel framework using machine learning to predict financial market stress and explain the main factors driving predictions. The second integrates numerical data with textual information using large language models to forecast market stress and identify its underlying drivers. Policymakers can use these tools to monitor emerging risks in real time, combining quantitative forecasts with qualitative insights from financial news and commentary.
November 5, 2025 at 9:03 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
International relocation of production systematically increases within-country income inequality in the countries that originally specialised in relocated products by compressing the income shares of the middle deciles.
Francisco Alcalá, Andres Romeu
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Graph showing the estimated effect of the relocation shock on the Gini index over the 1996-2017 period (percentage points). Economies with average GDP greater than $400 billion (2017 PPP). Globalisation has raised living standards worldwide but has also fuelled concerns that international competition is eroding middle-class incomes and widening inequality within countries. The column shows that the international relocation of production – the shift of export capacity from higher- to lower-income economies – systematically increases within-country income inequality in the countries that originally specialised in relocated products by compressing the income shares of the middle deciles and raising the top share.
November 5, 2025 at 9:00 AM
cepr.org
📢 #CallforPapers - RFBerlin-CEPR Annual Symposium in Labour Economics 2026
Submit a paper or express interest in attending the 2026 @rfberlin.bsky.social - CEPR Annual Symposium in Labour Economics.
Deadline: 31 Jan 2026
Organisers: Hyejin Ku & Jérôme Adda
cepr.org/events/rfber...
#EconSky
November 4, 2025 at 1:00 PM
cepr.org
Virtual Seminar on Monetary Economics
A monthly series joint with the Center for Monetary Research at the SF Fed
6 Nov 17:00 CET
Join us this week for a seminar with Jordi Galí presenting “Rethinking the New Keynesian Model (I): The Monetary Policy Block”

cepr.org/events/event...
#EconSky #EconConf
November 4, 2025 at 10:14 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
In 2024, Chinese annual oil demand declined for the first time in 20 years. L Bencivelli, A D'Orazio, S Emiliozzi, & A Gazzani show the rapid adoption of EVs is a major driver of this trend. In 2024 alone, EVs displaced 0.43 million barrels per day of gasoline.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Source: CEIC; Our World in Data and IEA. Note: In the left panel, “Other” includes Diesel, Natural Gas, LPG and other alternative fuels. For the right figure the green bars show each country's share of electric vehicles (EVs) on its total vehicle fleet in 2024 while the orange bars indicate the growth in the number of circulating EVs from 2014 to 2024. In the right panel the blue bars show each country's share of the global EV fleet in 2024. Between 2005 and 2024, China more than doubled its oil consumption, accounting for over half of the global increase in oil demand during that period. But in 2024 Chinese annual oil demand declined for the first time in twenty years. This column develops a dynamic model which suggests that the rapid adoption of electric vehicles in China has been a major driver of this trend. In 2024 alone, EV diffusion displaced about 0.43 million barrels per day of gasoline, and this figure could quadruple by 2040 with an accelerated transition.
November 4, 2025 at 9:15 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
Despite a rise in energy prices in 2023, Dutch households experienced slightly lower average expenditure-to-income ratios as disposable incomes increased faster. Tenants are more vulnerable but most households have become more resilient.
M van der Plaat, A Huizinga
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Graphs showing that fixed and necessary expenditures grew in the Netherlands, but the household expenditure ratio decreased between 2019 and 2023. Microdata from Statistics Netherlands, Nibud, and authors’ calculations. Households with high fixed and necessary expenditures relative to income are more vulnerable to income shocks. This column examines fixed and necessary expenditures for middle-income Dutch households between 2019 and 2023 and finds that, despite a sudden rise in energy prices in 2023, disposable incomes increased faster, slightly lowering average expenditure-to-income ratios. Tenants, especially private renters, remain more exposed to financial shocks than homeowners. Detailed information on household expenditures can help policymakers identify vulnerable households, assess policy effectiveness, and better understand household heterogeneity.
November 4, 2025 at 9:13 AM
cepr.org
⏰Two more weeks to submit your paper for the 2026 WEFIDEV-RFS-CEPR Conference! A great opportunity for scholars in #finance and #development with a dual submission option in the Review of Financial Studies.
#EconSky #EconConf
cepr.org Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · Sep 8
#CallForPapers - WEFIDEV-RFS-CEPR Conference
Deadline: 16 Nov 2025
Where: Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois
When: 18-19 Apr 2026
Dual submission option with the Review of Financial Studies available.
More info: cepr.org/events/2026-...
#EconSky #EconConf
November 3, 2025 at 2:15 PM