Centre for Economic Policy Research
LightNews LightNews
banner
cepr.org
Centre for Economic Policy Research
@cepr.org
9.9K followers 1.6K following 660 posts
CEPR, established in 1983, is an independent, non‐partisan, pan‐European non‐profit organization. Its mission is to enhance the quality of policy decisions through providing policy‐relevant research, based soundly in economic theory.
Posts Replies Media Videos
Pinned
cepr.org
Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · Dec 14
go.bsky.app/FumzhXZ
cepr.org
📢 #CallForPapers - Banco de Portugal and CEPR Conference on Financial Intermediation 2026
📆19-20 June 2026 | ⌛Submit a paper by 1 March 2026
cepr.org/events/banco...
@bportugal.pt #EconSky
February 10, 2026 at 3:02 PM
cepr.org
#CallForPapers @suomenpankki.fi ⁩and CEPR Joint Conference on Navigating Monetary Policy by the Northern Lights
📍Saariselkä, Finland |📆17-18 December
Deadline: 31 March
cepr.org/events/bank-...
@jkilponen.bsky.social #EconSky #EconConf
February 10, 2026 at 1:53 PM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Tsvetelina Nenova, & Hélène Rey discuss the channels of domestic and international transmission of Chinese monetary policy and show that vulnerabilities extend even to large and seemingly closed economies like the US.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Figure shows China's position in the global trade network. Directed network of bilateral goods exports, as reported in the IMF Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS). Mirror data is used to fill missing bilateral trade whenever available. China’s place within international trade networks and global supply chains makes the propagation of Chinese shocks a global phenomenon. This column discusses the channels of domestic and international transmission and shows that vulnerabilities extend also to large and seemingly closed economies like the US. Demand for industrial commodities plays a key role, which also translates into financial vulnerabilities for exposed emerging markets. But overall, amplification through the global financial cycle remains limited.
February 10, 2026 at 8:47 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
cepr.org
📢 #CallForPapers - Paris-Lyon Public Economics Workshop (PL-PubEcon)
📆28-29 May |📍ENS Lyon
Deadline: 1 March
Organised by: @bgarbinti.bsky.social‬ & Jonathan Goupille-Lebret
cepr.org/events/paris...
#EconSky
January 19, 2026 at 2:07 PM
cepr.org
⭐2 days until the return of the International Macro History Online Seminar Series! #IMHOS
First session takes place on 11 February at 17:00 CET.
Don't forget to register: cepr.org/events/event...
#EconSky
February 9, 2026 at 12:13 PM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
L Carpinelli, F Natoli & M Taboga assess how the AI wave contributes to US GDP. Technology investment contributes positively to GDP growth, but a sizeable portion leaks abroad through imports. Value added in sectoral accounts is also showing the contribution of AI.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSKy
Graph showing imports of servers by country of origin and by quarter since 2024q1. Forecasts on the economic impacts of artificial intelligence diverge sharply. This column assesses how the current AI wave is contributing to US GDP, both directly through investment and indirectly through ongoing service flows. Technology investment contributes positively to GDP growth, but a sizeable portion leaks abroad through imports. Beyond capital spending, value added in sectoral accounts is also showing the contribution of AI, for example in computer systems design and data processing. The largest economic effects of AI are still likely to come from productivity gains and organisational change. Understanding today’s accounting footprint is a prerequisite for interpreting tomorrow’s transformation.
February 9, 2026 at 10:19 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
E Amoncio, A Cuntz & C Fink examine how the award to Apple in the 2012 Apple v. Samsung case impacted firms’ behaviour. The legal certainty increased digital design protection relative to physical designs. Firms’ appropriation shifted toward transfers, not licences.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Graph of the annual count of digital and physical design protection. The solid line shows total design applications in digital subclasses. The dashed line represents applications in matched physical subclasses. The red vertical line denotes the 2012 Apple v. Samsung jury verdict. The sample is based on a balanced panel of 21,553 subclass–year observations (2009–2015). Digital design increasingly confers a competitive edge in global tech markets. This column examines how the award to Apple of damages for, among other things, infringement of the digital design of the iPhone home screen in the Apple v. Samsung case in 2012 impacted firms’ behaviour. The legal certainty provided by the verdict increased digital design protection relative to physical designs. Firms’ appropriation shifted toward transfers, not licences, reflecting the strong connection between digital design and brand identity, and this shift was strongest in crowded design spaces. The findings suggest that for firms to become ‘aesthetic pioneers’ and sustained investors in digital design, legal rules must be clear and predictable.
February 9, 2026 at 10:16 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
The 1920s US immigration quotas reduced intergenerational mobility, wages, and employment among US-born white men in more-exposed counties. In contrast, the effects for Black men were positive, though small and imprecise.
@jamesfeigenbaum.bsky.social et al.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Map of the continental United States ploting the immigration quota exposure, defined as the number of predicted missing immigrants, scaled by the 1900 county population, partialling out Census region fixed effects. Much of the debate over the consequences of immigration restrictions for labour market outcomes of native-born workers focuses on short-run wage competition. This column exploits the sharp and uneven impact of the US immigration quota acts of the 1920s to study the long-run effects of immigration restrictions on economic opportunity for US-born men. The authors show that restricting immigration reduced intergenerational mobility, wages, and employment among US-born white men in more-exposed counties. In contrast, the effects for Black men were positive, though small and imprecise. The findings highlight that immigration policy can have persistent and uneven consequences across groups and generations.
February 9, 2026 at 10:14 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
A survey of German firms shows over half of firms currently use generative AI or expect to use it by the end of the year. Firms expect productivity, wages, and demand for high-skilled workers to rise, with little change in low-skill employment.
E Falck & A Nagengast
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Chart showing firms’ assessments of GenAI’s economic effects. Among adopters (and near-term adopters), productivity expectations are decisively positive. The share of (current or prospective) GenAI users expecting labour productivity to increase by at least 2% rises from 46% (2024) to 51% (2025) and 54% (2026); around one-quarter even expect gains of 5% or more, while only about 4–5% foresee productivity losses. The novelty and speed of diffusion of generative AI means that evidence on its impact on productivity and the future of work is scarce. This column uses survey data from over 7,000 German firms to help address this gap. Over half of firms surveyed currently use generative AI or expect to use it by the end of the year, up from 26% in 2024. GenAI-related spending is expected to rise markedly from 2024 to 2026, but spending forecasts point to diminishing returns once easily scalable applications have been implemented. Firms expect productivity, wages, and demand for high-skilled workers to rise, with little change in low-skill employment.
February 9, 2026 at 10:13 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
cepr.org
✍️Apply now to attend the EABCN Training School on Energy and Commodity Prices. It will take place from 27-29 April in Vietri sul Mare, Salerno, Italy. Deadline to apply: 9 February.
@hcbjornland.bsky.social will teach the course.
cepr.org/events/eabcn...
#EconSky
January 23, 2026 at 2:04 PM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
A Fuchs, S S. Leue, & A Rose find that while attending Davos does not generate measurable financial gains for shareholders, it is associated with changes in firms' social performance that are consistent with the Forum's stakeholder-oriented mission.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Map shows the total number of delegates by country that attend Davos, 2009-2018. Attending the World Economic Forum in Davos is costly, with estimates ranging between $20,000 and $70,000 per delegate. This column uses data on attendees from 2009 to 2018 to examine whether attending the Forum yields tangible benefits for companies. The findings suggest that while attending Davos does not generate measurable financial gains for shareholders, with no evidence of improvements in stock market performance or credit ratings, it is associated with changes in firms’ social performance that are consistent with the Forum’s stakeholder-oriented mission.
February 6, 2026 at 9:50 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
@nickbloom.bsky.social‬ @paulmizen.bsky.social @iyotzov.bsky.social ‪et al. use a survey of UK firms to show state-dependent pricing has increased since 2019 & is more common in smaller firms, those with higher non-labour costs, & those reporting higher uncertainty.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Figure shows firm annual price growth, CPI inflation, and share of state-dependent firms Macroeconomic models distinguish time-dependent pricing, where firms change prices at fixed intervals, from state-dependent pricing, where firms change prices in response to changing demand or costs. This column presents new evidence on how firms set prices using direct questions from a large, economy-wide survey of UK firms. State-dependent pricing has increased since 2019 and is more common in smaller firms, those with higher non-labour costs, and those reporting higher uncertainty. Furthermore, empirical work shows that state-dependent firms respond faster to cost shocks, with larger differences for bigger shocks, consistent with theoretical predictions.
February 6, 2026 at 9:50 AM
cepr.org
📢 #CallForPapers - Heterogeneity & Inflation: From Microeconomic Variation to Macroeconomic Impact
📍26-27 May @ BIS | ⌛Deadline: 15 March
cepr.org/events/heter...
@unibas.ch @raphauer.bsky.social @leinsarah.bsky.social #EconSky
Heterogeneity & Inflation: From Microeconomic Variation to Macroeconomic Impact The BIS Innovation Hub Eurosystem Centre and the BIS Monetary and Economic Department, in association with CEPR, CEBRA and Basel University is organising a conference on Inflation Heterogeneity: Micro-Level Variations and Macro-Level Effects. The conference will take place 26-27 May 2026 at the BIS in Basel, Switzerland. This conference will explore different dimensions of heterogeneity - across consumers, firms, and shocks - and the resulting macroeconomic implications for aggregate inflation and policy. It will also explore the practical implications for the measurement, nowcasting and forecasting of inflation, including projects such as Spectrum of the BIS Innovation Hub. The conference is aimed at both academic and policy audiences. Scientific Committee: Raphael Auer (BIS & CEPR), Boris Hofmann (BIS), Sarah Lein (University of Basel & CEPR), Chiara Osbat (ECB), Elvira Prades (BIS & Banco de España), Andras Valko (BIS) and Henning Weber (Bundesbank). Deadline: 15 March 2026
February 5, 2026 at 2:14 PM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
Nicola Gagliardi presents the long-term macro-fiscal implications of climate change and the transition to a low-carbon economy across EU member states. Integrating climate risks into fiscal frameworks is important for credible and resilient public finances.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
The net fiscal impact (% of GDP) is given by the difference in primary balance (and its sub-components) between the NZ and NFA scenarios for the EU aggregate. Negative values reduce fiscal pressure; positive values increase fiscal pressure. Projections shown in the figure assume a 10% uptake of investment needs by the public sector. In Panel A (left), an output-driven revenue approach is followed. In Panel B (right), an output-driven revenue approach is combined with assumptions on structural energy-tax base erosion. Climate change is increasingly shaping macro-fiscal outlooks. Extreme weather events, chronic damages from global warming, and decarbonisation efforts all have growing implications for public finances and the economy. Based on recent scenario analysis, this column presents the long-term macro-fiscal implications of climate change and the transition to a low-carbon economy across EU member states. The findings show that integrating climate risks into fiscal frameworks is important for credible and resilient public finances.
February 5, 2026 at 9:25 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
D Restuccia analyses firm productivity & resource allocation in developing economies & finds employment responds less to productivity, affecting productive firms more severely. Output is less than half of what could be achieved w/ more efficient labour allocation.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Figure shows productivity gaps across firms and level of development. Productivity dispersion in each country is measured by the standard deviation of log total factor productivity (TFP) across firms in panel (a) and the indicated percentile ratios of firm TFP in panel (b). Each observation is the value for the indicated country. Labour productivity in logs for the year 2023 from the Penn World Table v11.0. In many developing countries, productive firms remain too small, while less productive firms are too large. Such misallocation contributes to losses in aggregate productivity. This column analyses firm-level productivity and distortions, using World Bank data covering manufacturing and services firms in over 100 countries. In developing economies, employment responds less to productivity, affecting productive firms more severely. Actual aggregate output is less than half of what could be achieved with a more efficient allocation of labour. Restoring the link between productivity and firm size should be a central goal of productivity-enhancing reforms.
February 5, 2026 at 9:20 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
combeju.bsky.social
#EconSky Very happy to join the organizing team of the Virtual IO seminar of @cepr.org

Great speakers and discussants coming! See the program in the link. Note that you can also have access to past seminars recording!

cepr.org/events/event...
The CEPR Virtual IO Seminar
The CEPR Virtual IO Seminar (VIOS) was created to provide an alternative to IO seminars cancelled due to travel restrictions brought on by the Coronavirus. The long-run goal, however, is to turn it in...
cepr.org
February 4, 2026 at 3:35 PM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
New VoxTalks Economics: The economic consequences of living longer
Julian Ashwin @maastrichtu.bsky.social and Martin Ellison @oxfordecondept.bsky.social discuss how longer lives are changing economic decisions and the macroeconomic landscape.
Listen: cepr.org/multimedia/e...
#EconSky
February 4, 2026 at 2:24 PM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
cepr.org
📢 #CallForPapers 15th Energy & Climate Economics #Conference
📍@tse-fr.eu | 📆4-5 June
Submissions on any aspect of the economics of energy and climate change are invited.
Deadline: 28 February
Organisers: @ambec.bsky.social & Mathias Reynaert
cepr.org/events/tse-e...
#EconSky #EconConf
January 13, 2026 at 12:37 PM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
Mishel Ghassibe & Anton Nakov argue that the post-pandemic inflation surge was not driven by greedy firms or overly expansionary monetary policy, but by unexpected price shocks cascading through a tightly connected production network.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Panel a) depicts the frequency of repricing in the data (blue solid line) and according to three models – the standard (Calvo, 1983) model with a constant repricing frequency (dashed green line), the state-dependent model but without networks (yellow line); and the more realistic state-dependent model with networks (solid red line). Panel b) displays actual inflation in the data and as predicted by the same three models. The post‑pandemic inflation surge is often attributed to pent-up demand and opportunistic price hikes by firms. This column argues that the surge was not driven by greedy firms or overly expansionary monetary policy, but by unexpected price shocks cascading through a tightly connected production network. As interdependencies in the global economy become increasingly complex, paying close attention to these mechanisms is essential for understanding future inflation risks and designing effective policy responses.
February 4, 2026 at 8:31 AM
cepr.org
⌛3 weeks left to submit a paper for the summer conference of the CEPR Research Policy Network: The Economics of Longevity and Ageing.
#EconSky #CallForPapers
cepr.org Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · Dec 3
📢 #CallForPapers - The Economics of Longevity and Ageing
9-11 July 2026 | University of Cambridge
Deadline: 27 February 2026
Organisers: Martin Ellison @oxfordecondept.bsky.social, Tiernan Evans @eitoxford.bsky.social, Eric French
cepr.org/events/econo...
#EconSky
February 3, 2026 at 12:41 PM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
Europe's US debt holdings offer little scope for strategic deployment as they are fragmented across jurisdictions and institutions, and efforts to weaponise them for political purposes would largely backfire, argue Paola Subacchi & Paul van den Noord.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
The question of whether Europe’s $12.6 trillion holdings of US assets be used as leverage if relations with Washington sour has become increasingly salient in policy and market discussions. This column argues that Europe’s US debt holdings offer little scope for strategic deployment as they are fragmented across jurisdictions and institutions, and efforts to weaponise them for political purposes would largely backfire.
February 3, 2026 at 8:54 AM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
voxeu.org
Diego A. Cerdeiro & Lorenzo Rotunno estimate that intra-EU trade barriers are between two to three times as large as between US states, with simulations suggesting that closing the gap could raise EU productivity by nearly 6%.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
The figure shows the ratio of cross-border (across EU countries or US states) to domestic sales for the different datasets in the year 2017 in manufacturing. The level of cross-border relative to domestic trade is higher in the US than in the EU. European firms tend to be smaller and less productive than US firms. Qualitative and survey-based evidence suggests that one key reason is the remaining barriers fragmenting the EU’s single market. This column argues that gravity-based trade estimates can help quantify the problem but are sensitive to the data used. Intra-EU trade barriers are estimated to be between two to three times as large as between US states, with simulations suggesting that fully closing the gap with intra-US trade costs could raise EU productivity by nearly 6%.
February 3, 2026 at 8:53 AM
cepr.org
📢 #CallForPapers for the 11th Monash-Paris-Warwick-Zurich-CEPR Text-As-Data #Workshop!

Papers using text, audio, images, or other unstructured data are welcome.

Organisers: @elliottash.bsky.social @essobecker.bsky.social & Philine Widmer
Deadline: 13 March
cepr.org/events/11th-...
#EconSky
February 2, 2026 at 1:44 PM
Reposted by Centre for Economic Policy Research
cepr.org
📆 4 Feb @ 17:00 CET Media Plurality #Webinar Session 13
Filipe Campante presents "Generative AI and Trust in the Media: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment"
Discussion w/ Paula Miraglia @nexojornal.bsky.social
Organisers: Julia Cagé & @felipelauritzen.bsky.social ow.ly/GzsM50Y4NX6
#EconSky
January 28, 2026 at 1:48 PM
cepr.org
CEPR Discussion Papers Week Ending 01/02/2026 -

https://ow.ly/tZQl50Y7t5T
February 2, 2026 at 11:00 AM