Dendroica
@dendroica.bsky.social
Retired design engineer, solar researcher, and data analyst. Now a full time birder and hiker, continuing his research on earth science and astrophysics. Will brake for Prog Rock.
On the evil site, @25_cycle
https://evidence-basedscience.com/
On the evil site, @25_cycle
https://evidence-basedscience.com/
For the second week in a row, we've shattered the weekly CO2 record as measured in Mauna Loa Observatory. 430.19- we've never been above 430 for a week before, we'll probably hit it at least 3 more times this year and will probably surpass it.
April 19, 2025 at 7:38 PM
For the second week in a row, we've shattered the weekly CO2 record as measured in Mauna Loa Observatory. 430.19- we've never been above 430 for a week before, we'll probably hit it at least 3 more times this year and will probably surpass it.
Thursday was busy birding and hiking so I didn't get around to NOAA and NASA.
March 2025 for both, slightly cooler (+0.03) than 2024. When we add ERA5, NOAA NCEP, JRA-3Q (the only one showing slightly higher) this trend is not only consistent but the "spread" high to low is under 0.12°C.
March 2025 for both, slightly cooler (+0.03) than 2024. When we add ERA5, NOAA NCEP, JRA-3Q (the only one showing slightly higher) this trend is not only consistent but the "spread" high to low is under 0.12°C.
April 11, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Thursday was busy birding and hiking so I didn't get around to NOAA and NASA.
March 2025 for both, slightly cooler (+0.03) than 2024. When we add ERA5, NOAA NCEP, JRA-3Q (the only one showing slightly higher) this trend is not only consistent but the "spread" high to low is under 0.12°C.
March 2025 for both, slightly cooler (+0.03) than 2024. When we add ERA5, NOAA NCEP, JRA-3Q (the only one showing slightly higher) this trend is not only consistent but the "spread" high to low is under 0.12°C.
ERA5 Land only, 1940-2025(mar)
60 year change is +2.1°C
15 year change is +0.93°C
I know we're only supposed to talk about the entire planet but last time I'd checked, almost all of us live on the land.
60 year change is +2.1°C
15 year change is +0.93°C
I know we're only supposed to talk about the entire planet but last time I'd checked, almost all of us live on the land.
April 8, 2025 at 8:17 PM
ERA5 Land only, 1940-2025(mar)
60 year change is +2.1°C
15 year change is +0.93°C
I know we're only supposed to talk about the entire planet but last time I'd checked, almost all of us live on the land.
60 year change is +2.1°C
15 year change is +0.93°C
I know we're only supposed to talk about the entire planet but last time I'd checked, almost all of us live on the land.
Solar output update, comparing cycles 24 & 25 to date. NASA will launch TSIS-2 satellite in Oct., hope it'll be more reliable and they'll provide support. TSIS is the best NASA has had but it's starting to age - Cycle 25 is about 1 part in 6000 hotter than 24
lasp.colorado.edu/data/tsis/ts...
lasp.colorado.edu/data/tsis/ts...
March 30, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Solar output update, comparing cycles 24 & 25 to date. NASA will launch TSIS-2 satellite in Oct., hope it'll be more reliable and they'll provide support. TSIS is the best NASA has had but it's starting to age - Cycle 25 is about 1 part in 6000 hotter than 24
lasp.colorado.edu/data/tsis/ts...
lasp.colorado.edu/data/tsis/ts...
I'm sorry, that's 3 floors up, to the right of this guy ...
March 23, 2025 at 5:49 PM
I'm sorry, that's 3 floors up, to the right of this guy ...
Maybe this AI garbage isn't working?
"Viking 6 and Viking 7 spacecraft
The shortest manned round trip to Mars was achieved by the Viking 6 and Viking 7 spacecraft, which took 155 and 128 days respectively"
"Viking 6 and Viking 7 spacecraft
The shortest manned round trip to Mars was achieved by the Viking 6 and Viking 7 spacecraft, which took 155 and 128 days respectively"
March 19, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Maybe this AI garbage isn't working?
"Viking 6 and Viking 7 spacecraft
The shortest manned round trip to Mars was achieved by the Viking 6 and Viking 7 spacecraft, which took 155 and 128 days respectively"
"Viking 6 and Viking 7 spacecraft
The shortest manned round trip to Mars was achieved by the Viking 6 and Viking 7 spacecraft, which took 155 and 128 days respectively"
The data was coming in the last several days, there was no doubt we would shatter the record the only question was by how much.
Keeling curve for the 10th week of 2025, an average of 429.04 parts per million CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory
Keeling curve for the 10th week of 2025, an average of 429.04 parts per million CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory
March 15, 2025 at 12:51 PM
The data was coming in the last several days, there was no doubt we would shatter the record the only question was by how much.
Keeling curve for the 10th week of 2025, an average of 429.04 parts per million CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory
Keeling curve for the 10th week of 2025, an average of 429.04 parts per million CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory
ERA5 Sea Surface 365 day temperature update.
It's been slowly coming off it's spectacular high in July, roughly 1/4°C above it's 2016 record high.
The oceans have a much higher thermal load than the atmosphere, about 1100X... it doesn't "prefer" to change rapidly.
sites.ecmwf.int/data/climate...
It's been slowly coming off it's spectacular high in July, roughly 1/4°C above it's 2016 record high.
The oceans have a much higher thermal load than the atmosphere, about 1100X... it doesn't "prefer" to change rapidly.
sites.ecmwf.int/data/climate...
March 11, 2025 at 9:05 PM
ERA5 Sea Surface 365 day temperature update.
It's been slowly coming off it's spectacular high in July, roughly 1/4°C above it's 2016 record high.
The oceans have a much higher thermal load than the atmosphere, about 1100X... it doesn't "prefer" to change rapidly.
sites.ecmwf.int/data/climate...
It's been slowly coming off it's spectacular high in July, roughly 1/4°C above it's 2016 record high.
The oceans have a much higher thermal load than the atmosphere, about 1100X... it doesn't "prefer" to change rapidly.
sites.ecmwf.int/data/climate...
I'm sorry if this is getting old - triple ice extent lows today.
If there's anything reassuring, it's almost a guarantee at sometime this year we won't be at record low global ice extent...
If there's anything reassuring, it's almost a guarantee at sometime this year we won't be at record low global ice extent...
March 10, 2025 at 2:41 PM
I'm sorry if this is getting old - triple ice extent lows today.
If there's anything reassuring, it's almost a guarantee at sometime this year we won't be at record low global ice extent...
If there's anything reassuring, it's almost a guarantee at sometime this year we won't be at record low global ice extent...
MLO revision this morning- only slightly worse news...
March 9, 2025 at 1:35 PM
MLO revision this morning- only slightly worse news...
Cycle 25 and 24 comparisons to this portion of their solar cycles, 25 remains well out in front it's almost impossible even if it goes "dark" from now to the end, for it to have less sunspot activity than 24.
March 8, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Cycle 25 and 24 comparisons to this portion of their solar cycles, 25 remains well out in front it's almost impossible even if it goes "dark" from now to the end, for it to have less sunspot activity than 24.
Keeling Curve, Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 data.
Very early in the year said it we might break the record as early as late February - it was the first full week of March.
428.10 PPM
Typically the high point of the year is in the last few weeks of May, sometimes even in June. 430.5±1 likely
Very early in the year said it we might break the record as early as late February - it was the first full week of March.
428.10 PPM
Typically the high point of the year is in the last few weeks of May, sometimes even in June. 430.5±1 likely
March 8, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Keeling Curve, Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 data.
Very early in the year said it we might break the record as early as late February - it was the first full week of March.
428.10 PPM
Typically the high point of the year is in the last few weeks of May, sometimes even in June. 430.5±1 likely
Very early in the year said it we might break the record as early as late February - it was the first full week of March.
428.10 PPM
Typically the high point of the year is in the last few weeks of May, sometimes even in June. 430.5±1 likely
NOAA (yup, still alive) released precipitable water data for Feb, 3rd highest level for Feb behind 2023 and 2016, mirroring temperature data.
Huge URL upcoming...
psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data...
Huge URL upcoming...
psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data...
March 3, 2025 at 4:10 PM
NOAA (yup, still alive) released precipitable water data for Feb, 3rd highest level for Feb behind 2023 and 2016, mirroring temperature data.
Huge URL upcoming...
psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data...
Huge URL upcoming...
psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data...
Getting red bellied vibes.
I'm asked by so many, why did they call this the red-bellied and not a red-headed woodpecker? Name was already taken and it's a stunner.
I'm asked by so many, why did they call this the red-bellied and not a red-headed woodpecker? Name was already taken and it's a stunner.
March 3, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Getting red bellied vibes.
I'm asked by so many, why did they call this the red-bellied and not a red-headed woodpecker? Name was already taken and it's a stunner.
I'm asked by so many, why did they call this the red-bellied and not a red-headed woodpecker? Name was already taken and it's a stunner.
Preliminary ERA5 data (final in about 4 days, don't expect to change by > ±0.002°C) this is the 3rd hottest February on record, which I'd projected very early in the month based on NOAA NCEP data- For the heck of it March is too early to call yet, somewhere in the top 3.
March 2, 2025 at 12:52 PM
Preliminary ERA5 data (final in about 4 days, don't expect to change by > ±0.002°C) this is the 3rd hottest February on record, which I'd projected very early in the month based on NOAA NCEP data- For the heck of it March is too early to call yet, somewhere in the top 3.
Antarctic & Arctic Ice extent 1st of March, 2025 compared to all prior 1 March in the database.
Did not expect: Both fell slightly yesterday, happens about 1 year in 10
Arctic ice remains a record 29th in last 31 days, Antarctic ice tied. Global still a record low 24th in last 25.
1 + 1 = 1
Did not expect: Both fell slightly yesterday, happens about 1 year in 10
Arctic ice remains a record 29th in last 31 days, Antarctic ice tied. Global still a record low 24th in last 25.
1 + 1 = 1
March 2, 2025 at 12:21 PM
Antarctic & Arctic Ice extent 1st of March, 2025 compared to all prior 1 March in the database.
Did not expect: Both fell slightly yesterday, happens about 1 year in 10
Arctic ice remains a record 29th in last 31 days, Antarctic ice tied. Global still a record low 24th in last 25.
1 + 1 = 1
Did not expect: Both fell slightly yesterday, happens about 1 year in 10
Arctic ice remains a record 29th in last 31 days, Antarctic ice tied. Global still a record low 24th in last 25.
1 + 1 = 1
Just how bad is UAH TLT (Temperature Lower Troposphere) compared to everyone else?
So far 8 organizations have released Jan 2025 climate data- 7 showed slight warming compared to 2024 and one- UAH showed sharp cooling.
They've always been bad, now they're worse...
-13.5 standard deviations.
So far 8 organizations have released Jan 2025 climate data- 7 showed slight warming compared to 2024 and one- UAH showed sharp cooling.
They've always been bad, now they're worse...
-13.5 standard deviations.
February 17, 2025 at 11:01 PM
Just how bad is UAH TLT (Temperature Lower Troposphere) compared to everyone else?
So far 8 organizations have released Jan 2025 climate data- 7 showed slight warming compared to 2024 and one- UAH showed sharp cooling.
They've always been bad, now they're worse...
-13.5 standard deviations.
So far 8 organizations have released Jan 2025 climate data- 7 showed slight warming compared to 2024 and one- UAH showed sharp cooling.
They've always been bad, now they're worse...
-13.5 standard deviations.
PIOMAS monthly Arctic ice volume data for Jan 2025. Second lowest Jan in the database, 2016 remains the year to beat but the margins are shrinking.
For the daily data, had to "cheat" to get the data, their still website links to "2024" so I copied the addy and changed to "5".
For the daily data, had to "cheat" to get the data, their still website links to "2024" so I copied the addy and changed to "5".
February 12, 2025 at 9:52 PM
PIOMAS monthly Arctic ice volume data for Jan 2025. Second lowest Jan in the database, 2016 remains the year to beat but the margins are shrinking.
For the daily data, had to "cheat" to get the data, their still website links to "2024" so I copied the addy and changed to "5".
For the daily data, had to "cheat" to get the data, their still website links to "2024" so I copied the addy and changed to "5".
The problem with "1.5°C" is that's cumulative global average but only 29% of the planet is land, with 68% of that in the northern hemisphere.
That's also where ~90% of us live.
Using the 1850-1900 benchmark period, the last 12 months is 2.49°C above that average for Northern Hemisphere land - only.
That's also where ~90% of us live.
Using the 1850-1900 benchmark period, the last 12 months is 2.49°C above that average for Northern Hemisphere land - only.
February 12, 2025 at 4:37 PM
The problem with "1.5°C" is that's cumulative global average but only 29% of the planet is land, with 68% of that in the northern hemisphere.
That's also where ~90% of us live.
Using the 1850-1900 benchmark period, the last 12 months is 2.49°C above that average for Northern Hemisphere land - only.
That's also where ~90% of us live.
Using the 1850-1900 benchmark period, the last 12 months is 2.49°C above that average for Northern Hemisphere land - only.
Berkeley Earth is following a new tradition, joining NASA on their 11AM release- I'm very pleased they're doing this, it avoids me hitting F5 every few hours for several days on end.😏
+0.09 hotter than last Jan, roughly in line with GISTEMP, ERA5, JRA-3Q and only slightly higher than NOAA NCEP.
+0.09 hotter than last Jan, roughly in line with GISTEMP, ERA5, JRA-3Q and only slightly higher than NOAA NCEP.
February 11, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Berkeley Earth is following a new tradition, joining NASA on their 11AM release- I'm very pleased they're doing this, it avoids me hitting F5 every few hours for several days on end.😏
+0.09 hotter than last Jan, roughly in line with GISTEMP, ERA5, JRA-3Q and only slightly higher than NOAA NCEP.
+0.09 hotter than last Jan, roughly in line with GISTEMP, ERA5, JRA-3Q and only slightly higher than NOAA NCEP.
NASA GISTEMP global data out for January, 2025 and back to normal it seems they run their data service the way they used to launch Apollo moonshots- to the second.
Spoiler alert- we're not going to see records this February.
Spoiler alert- we're not going to see records this February.
February 11, 2025 at 4:09 PM
NASA GISTEMP global data out for January, 2025 and back to normal it seems they run their data service the way they used to launch Apollo moonshots- to the second.
Spoiler alert- we're not going to see records this February.
Spoiler alert- we're not going to see records this February.
CERES finally dropped, but I don't really have the desire to work on it today much.
The most interesting chart is EEI, difference between what's going in vs what's coming out- that's slowly declining to pre-2022 levels but as long as it's substantially positive, temperatures will rise slowly.
The most interesting chart is EEI, difference between what's going in vs what's coming out- that's slowly declining to pre-2022 levels but as long as it's substantially positive, temperatures will rise slowly.
February 4, 2025 at 10:15 PM
CERES finally dropped, but I don't really have the desire to work on it today much.
The most interesting chart is EEI, difference between what's going in vs what's coming out- that's slowly declining to pre-2022 levels but as long as it's substantially positive, temperatures will rise slowly.
The most interesting chart is EEI, difference between what's going in vs what's coming out- that's slowly declining to pre-2022 levels but as long as it's substantially positive, temperatures will rise slowly.
JRA55/JRA3Q Chart
Not my favorite because it's a true PIA and they're not the best reanalysis source but it's available...
The hottest January known, surprisingly the second place wasn't 2024 in this database but 2016.
Not my favorite because it's a true PIA and they're not the best reanalysis source but it's available...
The hottest January known, surprisingly the second place wasn't 2024 in this database but 2016.
February 4, 2025 at 5:55 PM
JRA55/JRA3Q Chart
Not my favorite because it's a true PIA and they're not the best reanalysis source but it's available...
The hottest January known, surprisingly the second place wasn't 2024 in this database but 2016.
Not my favorite because it's a true PIA and they're not the best reanalysis source but it's available...
The hottest January known, surprisingly the second place wasn't 2024 in this database but 2016.
I know we're not supposed to talk about the other place, but one of my tweets was liked by Tony Levin and Mike Rutherford and I think I'm going to die...
February 3, 2025 at 2:02 PM
I know we're not supposed to talk about the other place, but one of my tweets was liked by Tony Levin and Mike Rutherford and I think I'm going to die...
ERA5 Analysis, January 2025:
By roughly 0.1°C (preliminary, final will appear in 3 days) 2025 beat out 2024 as the hottest (least-cold?) January on record.
First 2 months meteorological winter this year also "least cold" a statistical tie with 2023-2024 but this will change, it'll be in 2nd overall
By roughly 0.1°C (preliminary, final will appear in 3 days) 2025 beat out 2024 as the hottest (least-cold?) January on record.
First 2 months meteorological winter this year also "least cold" a statistical tie with 2023-2024 but this will change, it'll be in 2nd overall
February 2, 2025 at 12:35 PM
ERA5 Analysis, January 2025:
By roughly 0.1°C (preliminary, final will appear in 3 days) 2025 beat out 2024 as the hottest (least-cold?) January on record.
First 2 months meteorological winter this year also "least cold" a statistical tie with 2023-2024 but this will change, it'll be in 2nd overall
By roughly 0.1°C (preliminary, final will appear in 3 days) 2025 beat out 2024 as the hottest (least-cold?) January on record.
First 2 months meteorological winter this year also "least cold" a statistical tie with 2023-2024 but this will change, it'll be in 2nd overall