Dendroica
@dendroica.bsky.social
Retired design engineer, solar researcher, and data analyst. Now a full time birder and hiker, continuing his research on earth science and astrophysics. Will brake for Prog Rock.
On the evil site, @25_cycle
https://evidence-basedscience.com/
On the evil site, @25_cycle
https://evidence-basedscience.com/
For the second week in a row, we've shattered the weekly CO2 record as measured in Mauna Loa Observatory. 430.19- we've never been above 430 for a week before, we'll probably hit it at least 3 more times this year and will probably surpass it.
April 19, 2025 at 7:38 PM
For the second week in a row, we've shattered the weekly CO2 record as measured in Mauna Loa Observatory. 430.19- we've never been above 430 for a week before, we'll probably hit it at least 3 more times this year and will probably surpass it.
Thursday was busy birding and hiking so I didn't get around to NOAA and NASA.
March 2025 for both, slightly cooler (+0.03) than 2024. When we add ERA5, NOAA NCEP, JRA-3Q (the only one showing slightly higher) this trend is not only consistent but the "spread" high to low is under 0.12°C.
March 2025 for both, slightly cooler (+0.03) than 2024. When we add ERA5, NOAA NCEP, JRA-3Q (the only one showing slightly higher) this trend is not only consistent but the "spread" high to low is under 0.12°C.
April 11, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Thursday was busy birding and hiking so I didn't get around to NOAA and NASA.
March 2025 for both, slightly cooler (+0.03) than 2024. When we add ERA5, NOAA NCEP, JRA-3Q (the only one showing slightly higher) this trend is not only consistent but the "spread" high to low is under 0.12°C.
March 2025 for both, slightly cooler (+0.03) than 2024. When we add ERA5, NOAA NCEP, JRA-3Q (the only one showing slightly higher) this trend is not only consistent but the "spread" high to low is under 0.12°C.
ERA5 Land only, 1940-2025(mar)
60 year change is +2.1°C
15 year change is +0.93°C
I know we're only supposed to talk about the entire planet but last time I'd checked, almost all of us live on the land.
60 year change is +2.1°C
15 year change is +0.93°C
I know we're only supposed to talk about the entire planet but last time I'd checked, almost all of us live on the land.
April 8, 2025 at 8:17 PM
ERA5 Land only, 1940-2025(mar)
60 year change is +2.1°C
15 year change is +0.93°C
I know we're only supposed to talk about the entire planet but last time I'd checked, almost all of us live on the land.
60 year change is +2.1°C
15 year change is +0.93°C
I know we're only supposed to talk about the entire planet but last time I'd checked, almost all of us live on the land.
An important climate paper is Etminan, et al, 2016 detailing climate forcings for CO2, CH4 and N2O.
There are tiny discrepancies based on feedbacks where each molecule shares frequencies, I've calculated the molecular forcing ratios.
1/2
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
There are tiny discrepancies based on feedbacks where each molecule shares frequencies, I've calculated the molecular forcing ratios.
1/2
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing
Calculated CH4 radiative forcing is about 25% higher than earlier estimates New simplified expressions for forcing are presented for CO2, N2O, and CH4 Forcing for high CO2 concentrations is 9% high...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
April 5, 2025 at 6:50 PM
An important climate paper is Etminan, et al, 2016 detailing climate forcings for CO2, CH4 and N2O.
There are tiny discrepancies based on feedbacks where each molecule shares frequencies, I've calculated the molecular forcing ratios.
1/2
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
There are tiny discrepancies based on feedbacks where each molecule shares frequencies, I've calculated the molecular forcing ratios.
1/2
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Solar output update, comparing cycles 24 & 25 to date. NASA will launch TSIS-2 satellite in Oct., hope it'll be more reliable and they'll provide support. TSIS is the best NASA has had but it's starting to age - Cycle 25 is about 1 part in 6000 hotter than 24
lasp.colorado.edu/data/tsis/ts...
lasp.colorado.edu/data/tsis/ts...
March 30, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Solar output update, comparing cycles 24 & 25 to date. NASA will launch TSIS-2 satellite in Oct., hope it'll be more reliable and they'll provide support. TSIS is the best NASA has had but it's starting to age - Cycle 25 is about 1 part in 6000 hotter than 24
lasp.colorado.edu/data/tsis/ts...
lasp.colorado.edu/data/tsis/ts...
Don't read this if you're squeamish... horrific. Tesla is eventually going to be hit by a massive class action suit or wrongful death and the brand will be even more tarnished. Engineering nightmare, did not execute simple fail-safe. oaklandside.org/2025/03/18/c...
Cybertruck crash report says witness could not open door to save victims
Three college students were killed in the November collision in Piedmont.
oaklandside.org
March 21, 2025 at 3:01 AM
Don't read this if you're squeamish... horrific. Tesla is eventually going to be hit by a massive class action suit or wrongful death and the brand will be even more tarnished. Engineering nightmare, did not execute simple fail-safe. oaklandside.org/2025/03/18/c...
Maybe this AI garbage isn't working?
"Viking 6 and Viking 7 spacecraft
The shortest manned round trip to Mars was achieved by the Viking 6 and Viking 7 spacecraft, which took 155 and 128 days respectively"
"Viking 6 and Viking 7 spacecraft
The shortest manned round trip to Mars was achieved by the Viking 6 and Viking 7 spacecraft, which took 155 and 128 days respectively"
March 19, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Maybe this AI garbage isn't working?
"Viking 6 and Viking 7 spacecraft
The shortest manned round trip to Mars was achieved by the Viking 6 and Viking 7 spacecraft, which took 155 and 128 days respectively"
"Viking 6 and Viking 7 spacecraft
The shortest manned round trip to Mars was achieved by the Viking 6 and Viking 7 spacecraft, which took 155 and 128 days respectively"
Has anyone noticed that TSLA is in freefall again in pre-market trading?
As of 8:45AM on the 18th, down over $8.50 at just under $229.40 a share.
As of 8:45AM on the 18th, down over $8.50 at just under $229.40 a share.
March 18, 2025 at 12:46 PM
Has anyone noticed that TSLA is in freefall again in pre-market trading?
As of 8:45AM on the 18th, down over $8.50 at just under $229.40 a share.
As of 8:45AM on the 18th, down over $8.50 at just under $229.40 a share.
The data was coming in the last several days, there was no doubt we would shatter the record the only question was by how much.
Keeling curve for the 10th week of 2025, an average of 429.04 parts per million CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory
Keeling curve for the 10th week of 2025, an average of 429.04 parts per million CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory
March 15, 2025 at 12:51 PM
The data was coming in the last several days, there was no doubt we would shatter the record the only question was by how much.
Keeling curve for the 10th week of 2025, an average of 429.04 parts per million CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory
Keeling curve for the 10th week of 2025, an average of 429.04 parts per million CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory
Need to have this said, Elon Musk made himself out to be this great hero of humanity, that's why he wants to build electric cars, that's why he wants to establish a base on Mars but all of his actions show he's really a psychopath.
We can go through a few famous issues but I'll cut to the chase
1
We can go through a few famous issues but I'll cut to the chase
1
March 12, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Need to have this said, Elon Musk made himself out to be this great hero of humanity, that's why he wants to build electric cars, that's why he wants to establish a base on Mars but all of his actions show he's really a psychopath.
We can go through a few famous issues but I'll cut to the chase
1
We can go through a few famous issues but I'll cut to the chase
1
ERA5 Sea Surface 365 day temperature update.
It's been slowly coming off it's spectacular high in July, roughly 1/4°C above it's 2016 record high.
The oceans have a much higher thermal load than the atmosphere, about 1100X... it doesn't "prefer" to change rapidly.
sites.ecmwf.int/data/climate...
It's been slowly coming off it's spectacular high in July, roughly 1/4°C above it's 2016 record high.
The oceans have a much higher thermal load than the atmosphere, about 1100X... it doesn't "prefer" to change rapidly.
sites.ecmwf.int/data/climate...
March 11, 2025 at 9:05 PM
ERA5 Sea Surface 365 day temperature update.
It's been slowly coming off it's spectacular high in July, roughly 1/4°C above it's 2016 record high.
The oceans have a much higher thermal load than the atmosphere, about 1100X... it doesn't "prefer" to change rapidly.
sites.ecmwf.int/data/climate...
It's been slowly coming off it's spectacular high in July, roughly 1/4°C above it's 2016 record high.
The oceans have a much higher thermal load than the atmosphere, about 1100X... it doesn't "prefer" to change rapidly.
sites.ecmwf.int/data/climate...
Today's rant: Frump had a chance to right the markets but instead of being smart and say "don't worry, this is a temporary issue and we're going to right the ship immediately" he set fire to the sails and threw the oars overboard.
Markets don't want to hear, "people will suffer."
Markets don't want to hear, "people will suffer."
March 10, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Today's rant: Frump had a chance to right the markets but instead of being smart and say "don't worry, this is a temporary issue and we're going to right the ship immediately" he set fire to the sails and threw the oars overboard.
Markets don't want to hear, "people will suffer."
Markets don't want to hear, "people will suffer."
What does X and our tariffs with Mexico and Canada have in common?
It's on again, off again, on again, off again.
It's on again, off again, on again, off again.
March 10, 2025 at 4:07 PM
What does X and our tariffs with Mexico and Canada have in common?
It's on again, off again, on again, off again.
It's on again, off again, on again, off again.
I'm sorry if this is getting old - triple ice extent lows today.
If there's anything reassuring, it's almost a guarantee at sometime this year we won't be at record low global ice extent...
If there's anything reassuring, it's almost a guarantee at sometime this year we won't be at record low global ice extent...
March 10, 2025 at 2:41 PM
I'm sorry if this is getting old - triple ice extent lows today.
If there's anything reassuring, it's almost a guarantee at sometime this year we won't be at record low global ice extent...
If there's anything reassuring, it's almost a guarantee at sometime this year we won't be at record low global ice extent...
Cycle 25 and 24 comparisons to this portion of their solar cycles, 25 remains well out in front it's almost impossible even if it goes "dark" from now to the end, for it to have less sunspot activity than 24.
March 8, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Cycle 25 and 24 comparisons to this portion of their solar cycles, 25 remains well out in front it's almost impossible even if it goes "dark" from now to the end, for it to have less sunspot activity than 24.
Keeling Curve, Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 data.
Very early in the year said it we might break the record as early as late February - it was the first full week of March.
428.10 PPM
Typically the high point of the year is in the last few weeks of May, sometimes even in June. 430.5±1 likely
Very early in the year said it we might break the record as early as late February - it was the first full week of March.
428.10 PPM
Typically the high point of the year is in the last few weeks of May, sometimes even in June. 430.5±1 likely
March 8, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Keeling Curve, Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 data.
Very early in the year said it we might break the record as early as late February - it was the first full week of March.
428.10 PPM
Typically the high point of the year is in the last few weeks of May, sometimes even in June. 430.5±1 likely
Very early in the year said it we might break the record as early as late February - it was the first full week of March.
428.10 PPM
Typically the high point of the year is in the last few weeks of May, sometimes even in June. 430.5±1 likely
I really hope Elon Musk does an excellent job at DOGE, because the way his Tesla stock is going right now, he's going to need a backup financial plan fast.
That or drive for GrubHub
That or drive for GrubHub
March 6, 2025 at 7:18 PM
I really hope Elon Musk does an excellent job at DOGE, because the way his Tesla stock is going right now, he's going to need a backup financial plan fast.
That or drive for GrubHub
That or drive for GrubHub
Economic explainer/rant.
We are seeing interesting results in the market & I mean the currency market not stocks- typically after raising tariffs the home currency rises against competition.
Not this time!
This is extremely inflationary and will hurt us exports abroad.
1/3
We are seeing interesting results in the market & I mean the currency market not stocks- typically after raising tariffs the home currency rises against competition.
Not this time!
This is extremely inflationary and will hurt us exports abroad.
1/3
March 6, 2025 at 12:24 PM
Economic explainer/rant.
We are seeing interesting results in the market & I mean the currency market not stocks- typically after raising tariffs the home currency rises against competition.
Not this time!
This is extremely inflationary and will hurt us exports abroad.
1/3
We are seeing interesting results in the market & I mean the currency market not stocks- typically after raising tariffs the home currency rises against competition.
Not this time!
This is extremely inflationary and will hurt us exports abroad.
1/3
Holy smokes, Tesla sales fell 76% last month in Germany, although that's not as bad as the 81% in Norway.
Announced yesterday , 3/Y sales fell 72% in Australia.
Announced yesterday , 3/Y sales fell 72% in Australia.
March 5, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Holy smokes, Tesla sales fell 76% last month in Germany, although that's not as bad as the 81% in Norway.
Announced yesterday , 3/Y sales fell 72% in Australia.
Announced yesterday , 3/Y sales fell 72% in Australia.
Heard this on NPR last week, and no it didn't slip my mind...
An rare genetic disorder causes ~ 100% Alzheimer's in ppl over 50, this one gentleman escaped it- used to work navy on ship's engine rooms.
Do heat shock brain chemicals prevent Alzheimers?
www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/npr/nx-...
An rare genetic disorder causes ~ 100% Alzheimer's in ppl over 50, this one gentleman escaped it- used to work navy on ship's engine rooms.
Do heat shock brain chemicals prevent Alzheimers?
www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/npr/nx-...
His genes forecast Alzheimer's. His brain had other plans.
Doug Whitney was supposed to develop Alzheimer's by 50. Now scientists are trying to understand why his brain remains healthy at 75.
www.northcountrypublicradio.org
March 3, 2025 at 9:22 PM
Heard this on NPR last week, and no it didn't slip my mind...
An rare genetic disorder causes ~ 100% Alzheimer's in ppl over 50, this one gentleman escaped it- used to work navy on ship's engine rooms.
Do heat shock brain chemicals prevent Alzheimers?
www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/npr/nx-...
An rare genetic disorder causes ~ 100% Alzheimer's in ppl over 50, this one gentleman escaped it- used to work navy on ship's engine rooms.
Do heat shock brain chemicals prevent Alzheimers?
www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/npr/nx-...
NOAA (yup, still alive) released precipitable water data for Feb, 3rd highest level for Feb behind 2023 and 2016, mirroring temperature data.
Huge URL upcoming...
psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data...
Huge URL upcoming...
psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data...
March 3, 2025 at 4:10 PM
NOAA (yup, still alive) released precipitable water data for Feb, 3rd highest level for Feb behind 2023 and 2016, mirroring temperature data.
Huge URL upcoming...
psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data...
Huge URL upcoming...
psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data...
Another rant and I should have copied this when I saw it.
Early yesterday morning X had a "leading story" about the successful Starship 8 launch including bullet points (5?) on its major accomplishments including the first orbital Starship flight!
One major problem: it's been delayed until Monday🤣
Early yesterday morning X had a "leading story" about the successful Starship 8 launch including bullet points (5?) on its major accomplishments including the first orbital Starship flight!
One major problem: it's been delayed until Monday🤣
March 2, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Another rant and I should have copied this when I saw it.
Early yesterday morning X had a "leading story" about the successful Starship 8 launch including bullet points (5?) on its major accomplishments including the first orbital Starship flight!
One major problem: it's been delayed until Monday🤣
Early yesterday morning X had a "leading story" about the successful Starship 8 launch including bullet points (5?) on its major accomplishments including the first orbital Starship flight!
One major problem: it's been delayed until Monday🤣
Preliminary ERA5 data (final in about 4 days, don't expect to change by > ±0.002°C) this is the 3rd hottest February on record, which I'd projected very early in the month based on NOAA NCEP data- For the heck of it March is too early to call yet, somewhere in the top 3.
March 2, 2025 at 12:52 PM
Preliminary ERA5 data (final in about 4 days, don't expect to change by > ±0.002°C) this is the 3rd hottest February on record, which I'd projected very early in the month based on NOAA NCEP data- For the heck of it March is too early to call yet, somewhere in the top 3.
Antarctic & Arctic Ice extent 1st of March, 2025 compared to all prior 1 March in the database.
Did not expect: Both fell slightly yesterday, happens about 1 year in 10
Arctic ice remains a record 29th in last 31 days, Antarctic ice tied. Global still a record low 24th in last 25.
1 + 1 = 1
Did not expect: Both fell slightly yesterday, happens about 1 year in 10
Arctic ice remains a record 29th in last 31 days, Antarctic ice tied. Global still a record low 24th in last 25.
1 + 1 = 1
March 2, 2025 at 12:21 PM
Antarctic & Arctic Ice extent 1st of March, 2025 compared to all prior 1 March in the database.
Did not expect: Both fell slightly yesterday, happens about 1 year in 10
Arctic ice remains a record 29th in last 31 days, Antarctic ice tied. Global still a record low 24th in last 25.
1 + 1 = 1
Did not expect: Both fell slightly yesterday, happens about 1 year in 10
Arctic ice remains a record 29th in last 31 days, Antarctic ice tied. Global still a record low 24th in last 25.
1 + 1 = 1
Trump and Vance have made us a pariah nation that no foreign leader will ever trust
February 28, 2025 at 7:18 PM
Trump and Vance have made us a pariah nation that no foreign leader will ever trust