Happy minor split day?

Sure on the positioning, but was the amplitude of these features the same?

30-days alone is not long enough to filter out the MJO my man. You're seeing the active MJO passage across the Eastern Pacific in this 30-day snap shot. Not saying coupling is zero over the East Pacific with El Nino, but it's not as strong as it might appear in this 30day composite.

Talk about a trade surge coming!

Happy Holidays from Mother Nature

The MJO active phase is experiencing destructive interference with Kelvin waves later this week into next. This is going to cause EOF-based MJO indices to dive into the inner circle. Once the destructive interference is over, the signal will amply to 1-2sigma levels (I'm targeting Phase 8-1)

So are we heading into a Pacific trough or Pacific ridge regime next week?

Des Moines IA is tracking to lowest accumulated precipitation since April-1 dating back to 1985.

You don't get a classic gill-response like this often in the tropics like what we're seeing around Dec-8th. It's a thing of beauty to see theoretical tropical meteorology pop up in the real-world.

This upcoming event is projecting both onto the Kelvin and MJO bands, though we all know the MJO is really a strong CCKW. The one thing that gets my attention for this December wave is it will be taking place as the equatorial stratosphere cools from minor SSWE at the pole. Could beef up the MJO amp

1997 compared to this year...

Siberian SSWE #2 coming into view now. Note the elongated upper-half of the SPV body, looking like some tail is growing off of it.

I know the ocean ENSO monitoring folks have been oozing El Nino... but guys, the Indian Ocean Dipole coupling is the main story right now.

It wouldn't feel right if my first post wasn't about a Kelvin wave.