Happy minor split day?

Talk about a trade surge coming!

Happy Holidays from Mother Nature

The MJO active phase is experiencing destructive interference with Kelvin waves later this week into next. This is going to cause EOF-based MJO indices to dive into the inner circle. Once the destructive interference is over, the signal will amply to 1-2sigma levels (I'm targeting Phase 8-1)

So are we heading into a Pacific trough or Pacific ridge regime next week?

Des Moines IA is tracking to lowest accumulated precipitation since April-1 dating back to 1985.

The wave reflection index is forecast to rise substantially over the next two weeks (left), driven by strong upward wave flux over Siberia and reduced (anomalously down) flux over NW Canada (right flux). If this holds, a colder regime across N America is likely late Dec. #S2S.

You don't get a classic gill-response like this often in the tropics like what we're seeing around Dec-8th. It's a thing of beauty to see theoretical tropical meteorology pop up in the real-world.

1997 compared to this year...

Siberian SSWE #2 coming into view now. Note the elongated upper-half of the SPV body, looking like some tail is growing off of it.

I know the ocean ENSO monitoring folks have been oozing El Nino... but guys, the Indian Ocean Dipole coupling is the main story right now.

It wouldn't feel right if my first post wasn't about a Kelvin wave.