Dean Oliver
Dean Oliver
@deanolytics.bsky.social
Sports analytics pioneer, focusing most on basketball. ESPN, NBA.
0.1 WAR in that time. Definitely better this year than last year, though.
November 12, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Russ' value starting this year is the highest it's been and about +1.4 of that is rebounding, as opposed to +0.4 last year. Haven't studied yet for teammate interaction effects at this point.

espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
November 9, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Per GeniusIQ, best guard rebounding percentages last 10 yrs:
- Amen Thompson
- Ausar Thompson
- Giddey
- Hart
- Jus Champagnie
- Russ

Not sure the Thompson twins are guards.
November 9, 2025 at 2:26 PM
The work behind dividing credit is a combination of what Second Spectrum did 10+ years ago on rebounding - positioning, attack, convert - and some of the stuff I posted. But I think the _team_ positioning is key to devaluing uncontested rebs. If the chc for a reb was already 90%, that is a factor.
November 9, 2025 at 2:20 PM
That's more the division of credit/blame part.

Easier to point you to the logic explained here

open.substack.com/pub/ldeano/p...
Piece of Harmony
Aligning team and player incentives in credit and blame
open.substack.com
November 8, 2025 at 10:12 PM
I didn't emphasize it a ton in the book, but that equation is pretty important. It is how to balance usage with efficiency. It translates non-scoring things - rebounds, tov, missed shots - into a point value.
November 8, 2025 at 9:54 PM
No. There is the PUE equation in Basketball Beyond Paper that relates performance in net points to usage and efficiency. Usage is about possession, including rebounds, which gets divided. Efficiency is about producing points.
November 8, 2025 at 1:23 PM
FWIW - We do break down how many net points players earn through rebounding. If you look at the graph at the bottom of the boxscore and flip the dropdown to Rebounds, you will see Russ' value in rebounding (+0.9 that night).
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
November 7, 2025 at 7:39 PM
Defensive FT rebounds - those are definitely lower value and he got a good share for a while. Haven't looked recently. He was still quite good even without those.

It probably is fair to say that he's a great rebounding guard, but his shooting woes hurt.

(I loved having him on my team, though.)
November 6, 2025 at 9:28 PM