Dean Oliver
@deanolytics.bsky.social
Sports analytics pioneer, focusing most on basketball. ESPN, NBA.
A great defensive game last night: Oso Ighodaro with +11 defensive net pts, best of the year
- Contested 17 shots, allowing 1 make (GeniusIQ). 3 stls, 3 blks. 26 minutes
- Team allowed 35 pts on 53 poss with him in
- Not a single defensive highlight on TV. That's defense - often anonymous.
- Contested 17 shots, allowing 1 make (GeniusIQ). 3 stls, 3 blks. 26 minutes
- Team allowed 35 pts on 53 poss with him in
- Not a single defensive highlight on TV. That's defense - often anonymous.
November 14, 2025 at 1:23 PM
A great defensive game last night: Oso Ighodaro with +11 defensive net pts, best of the year
- Contested 17 shots, allowing 1 make (GeniusIQ). 3 stls, 3 blks. 26 minutes
- Team allowed 35 pts on 53 poss with him in
- Not a single defensive highlight on TV. That's defense - often anonymous.
- Contested 17 shots, allowing 1 make (GeniusIQ). 3 stls, 3 blks. 26 minutes
- Team allowed 35 pts on 53 poss with him in
- Not a single defensive highlight on TV. That's defense - often anonymous.
After Cade Cunningham's 31-miss night on Monday, some people asked what other Pistons should be shooting with so many injuries.
Last night provided some answer: Duncan Robinson and Paul Reed. Both ramped up usage with good efficiency.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Likely a mix in long run.
Last night provided some answer: Duncan Robinson and Paul Reed. Both ramped up usage with good efficiency.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Likely a mix in long run.
November 13, 2025 at 3:53 PM
After Cade Cunningham's 31-miss night on Monday, some people asked what other Pistons should be shooting with so many injuries.
Last night provided some answer: Duncan Robinson and Paul Reed. Both ramped up usage with good efficiency.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Likely a mix in long run.
Last night provided some answer: Duncan Robinson and Paul Reed. Both ramped up usage with good efficiency.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Likely a mix in long run.
Yesterday had two players with positive net points despite having a -20 or worse plus/minus.
- Keon Ellis, -23 and +1.5 net pts
- James Harden, -24 and +0.9
Only 5-7% of players with +/- of -20 or worse are positive, average being about -5.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Keon Ellis, -23 and +1.5 net pts
- James Harden, -24 and +0.9
Only 5-7% of players with +/- of -20 or worse are positive, average being about -5.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
November 13, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Yesterday had two players with positive net points despite having a -20 or worse plus/minus.
- Keon Ellis, -23 and +1.5 net pts
- James Harden, -24 and +0.9
Only 5-7% of players with +/- of -20 or worse are positive, average being about -5.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Keon Ellis, -23 and +1.5 net pts
- James Harden, -24 and +0.9
Only 5-7% of players with +/- of -20 or worse are positive, average being about -5.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Nikola Jokic had the best night of the season, with +19.8 net pts, 55 pts scored, on 18/23 shooting, just 2 tov.
Nuggets won by 14, so Jokic had a "threshold win," meaning they would have lost without his net pts
Jokic now has 3 threshold wins, NBA's most, averaging +15 in them, NBA's best
Nuggets won by 14, so Jokic had a "threshold win," meaning they would have lost without his net pts
Jokic now has 3 threshold wins, NBA's most, averaging +15 in them, NBA's best
November 13, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Nikola Jokic had the best night of the season, with +19.8 net pts, 55 pts scored, on 18/23 shooting, just 2 tov.
Nuggets won by 14, so Jokic had a "threshold win," meaning they would have lost without his net pts
Jokic now has 3 threshold wins, NBA's most, averaging +15 in them, NBA's best
Nuggets won by 14, so Jokic had a "threshold win," meaning they would have lost without his net pts
Jokic now has 3 threshold wins, NBA's most, averaging +15 in them, NBA's best
Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 23.1 ppg after 18.2 last year.
But is he better?
He shot an effective 60% last year, 55% this year. Turnovers have doubled, but getting to the foul line more.
By offensive net pts, he was at +1.4 per 48 min and +0.9 this year. Likely not candidate for Most Improved
But is he better?
He shot an effective 60% last year, 55% this year. Turnovers have doubled, but getting to the foul line more.
By offensive net pts, he was at +1.4 per 48 min and +0.9 this year. Likely not candidate for Most Improved
November 12, 2025 at 8:55 PM
Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 23.1 ppg after 18.2 last year.
But is he better?
He shot an effective 60% last year, 55% this year. Turnovers have doubled, but getting to the foul line more.
By offensive net pts, he was at +1.4 per 48 min and +0.9 this year. Likely not candidate for Most Improved
But is he better?
He shot an effective 60% last year, 55% this year. Turnovers have doubled, but getting to the foul line more.
By offensive net pts, he was at +1.4 per 48 min and +0.9 this year. Likely not candidate for Most Improved
In each of his last two games, Ja Morant has posted -10 or worse net points, awful games. He hasn't had a positive game since October...and his suspension was on Nov 2.
It doesn't look like they resolved the issues.
It doesn't look like they resolved the issues.
November 12, 2025 at 1:37 PM
In each of his last two games, Ja Morant has posted -10 or worse net points, awful games. He hasn't had a positive game since October...and his suspension was on Nov 2.
It doesn't look like they resolved the issues.
It doesn't look like they resolved the issues.
Since The Trade,
- Anthony Davis has been worth 0.6 wins above replacement (WAR)
- Luka Doncic has been worth 7.2.
And that's ignoring the playoffs as well as the projected future.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-ptsWAR
- Anthony Davis has been worth 0.6 wins above replacement (WAR)
- Luka Doncic has been worth 7.2.
And that's ignoring the playoffs as well as the projected future.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-ptsWAR
November 11, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Since The Trade,
- Anthony Davis has been worth 0.6 wins above replacement (WAR)
- Luka Doncic has been worth 7.2.
And that's ignoring the playoffs as well as the projected future.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-ptsWAR
- Anthony Davis has been worth 0.6 wins above replacement (WAR)
- Luka Doncic has been worth 7.2.
And that's ignoring the playoffs as well as the projected future.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-ptsWAR
I watched highlights of the OKC-MEM game, a few showing Ja Morant doing good things. It gave me no indication that he went 3/18 from the field!
It's that kind of highlight package that make good storytelling metrics in the box score useful.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
It's that kind of highlight package that make good storytelling metrics in the box score useful.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
November 10, 2025 at 1:44 PM
I watched highlights of the OKC-MEM game, a few showing Ja Morant doing good things. It gave me no indication that he went 3/18 from the field!
It's that kind of highlight package that make good storytelling metrics in the box score useful.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
It's that kind of highlight package that make good storytelling metrics in the box score useful.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
Russ' value starting this year is the highest it's been and about +1.4 of that is rebounding, as opposed to +0.4 last year. Haven't studied yet for teammate interaction effects at this point.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
November 9, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Russ' value starting this year is the highest it's been and about +1.4 of that is rebounding, as opposed to +0.4 last year. Haven't studied yet for teammate interaction effects at this point.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
These are the best and worst offensive performances by the Four Factors accounting for teams, splitting the shooting factor into 2pt/3pt.
- Dallas' 10/22 on 2s was against Wemby
- Biggest range is for 3s - yes, they're important
- Having a negative at the foul line is rare
- Dallas' 10/22 on 2s was against Wemby
- Biggest range is for 3s - yes, they're important
- Having a negative at the foul line is rare
November 7, 2025 at 8:57 PM
These are the best and worst offensive performances by the Four Factors accounting for teams, splitting the shooting factor into 2pt/3pt.
- Dallas' 10/22 on 2s was against Wemby
- Biggest range is for 3s - yes, they're important
- Having a negative at the foul line is rare
- Dallas' 10/22 on 2s was against Wemby
- Biggest range is for 3s - yes, they're important
- Having a negative at the foul line is rare
FWIW - We do break down how many net points players earn through rebounding. If you look at the graph at the bottom of the boxscore and flip the dropdown to Rebounds, you will see Russ' value in rebounding (+0.9 that night).
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
November 7, 2025 at 7:39 PM
FWIW - We do break down how many net points players earn through rebounding. If you look at the graph at the bottom of the boxscore and flip the dropdown to Rebounds, you will see Russ' value in rebounding (+0.9 that night).
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
Early season, statistically significant performance changes from prior yrs are rare. A few of interest:
- CP3 is down on O
- Julius Randle, Mathurin is up on O
- Domantas Sabonis, JJJ, Bane down overall
- Jerami Grant, Mathurin up overall
- Castle up on D
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
- CP3 is down on O
- Julius Randle, Mathurin is up on O
- Domantas Sabonis, JJJ, Bane down overall
- Jerami Grant, Mathurin up overall
- Castle up on D
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
November 7, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Early season, statistically significant performance changes from prior yrs are rare. A few of interest:
- CP3 is down on O
- Julius Randle, Mathurin is up on O
- Domantas Sabonis, JJJ, Bane down overall
- Jerami Grant, Mathurin up overall
- Castle up on D
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
- CP3 is down on O
- Julius Randle, Mathurin is up on O
- Domantas Sabonis, JJJ, Bane down overall
- Jerami Grant, Mathurin up overall
- Castle up on D
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
Recently, Denver has had the biggest drop between their starters and the bench, mainly because of Jokic.
But this year...well, it's almost the same. They're behind Cleveland, Knicks, Jazz.
- Memphis has bench better than starters to biggest margin
- Heat bench is 🔥
But this year...well, it's almost the same. They're behind Cleveland, Knicks, Jazz.
- Memphis has bench better than starters to biggest margin
- Heat bench is 🔥
November 6, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Recently, Denver has had the biggest drop between their starters and the bench, mainly because of Jokic.
But this year...well, it's almost the same. They're behind Cleveland, Knicks, Jazz.
- Memphis has bench better than starters to biggest margin
- Heat bench is 🔥
But this year...well, it's almost the same. They're behind Cleveland, Knicks, Jazz.
- Memphis has bench better than starters to biggest margin
- Heat bench is 🔥
Spida Net Points of +15.7 yesterday ranks as the 4th best game of this young season behind
- Aaron Gordon's 50 pt night on 10/23, +17.0 net pts
- Wemby on 10/22, +16.7
- Reaves' 51 pt night on 10/26, +16.5
Just ahead of Jokic's +14.9 last night.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Aaron Gordon's 50 pt night on 10/23, +17.0 net pts
- Wemby on 10/22, +16.7
- Reaves' 51 pt night on 10/26, +16.5
Just ahead of Jokic's +14.9 last night.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
November 6, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Spida Net Points of +15.7 yesterday ranks as the 4th best game of this young season behind
- Aaron Gordon's 50 pt night on 10/23, +17.0 net pts
- Wemby on 10/22, +16.7
- Reaves' 51 pt night on 10/26, +16.5
Just ahead of Jokic's +14.9 last night.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Aaron Gordon's 50 pt night on 10/23, +17.0 net pts
- Wemby on 10/22, +16.7
- Reaves' 51 pt night on 10/26, +16.5
Just ahead of Jokic's +14.9 last night.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Update on NBA Sophomores by Net Pts per game
- Mitchell was negative last night and Castle was positive
- Risacher moving up
- Ron Holland II helping the Pistons
You can see these numbers by changing the Draft Year at
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
- Mitchell was negative last night and Castle was positive
- Risacher moving up
- Ron Holland II helping the Pistons
You can see these numbers by changing the Draft Year at
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
November 6, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Update on NBA Sophomores by Net Pts per game
- Mitchell was negative last night and Castle was positive
- Risacher moving up
- Ron Holland II helping the Pistons
You can see these numbers by changing the Draft Year at
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
- Mitchell was negative last night and Castle was positive
- Risacher moving up
- Ron Holland II helping the Pistons
You can see these numbers by changing the Draft Year at
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
Here are the NBA's best players by quarter (removing garbage time).
- Q1 usually has stars, then Q2 can be a mix because stars often sit part of Q2. This mostly fits that.
- Two Lakers in Q4 (and a former Laker)
- Sam Merrill? He's shooting an effective 98% in Q1/Q3, which won't last.
- Q1 usually has stars, then Q2 can be a mix because stars often sit part of Q2. This mostly fits that.
- Two Lakers in Q4 (and a former Laker)
- Sam Merrill? He's shooting an effective 98% in Q1/Q3, which won't last.
November 5, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Here are the NBA's best players by quarter (removing garbage time).
- Q1 usually has stars, then Q2 can be a mix because stars often sit part of Q2. This mostly fits that.
- Two Lakers in Q4 (and a former Laker)
- Sam Merrill? He's shooting an effective 98% in Q1/Q3, which won't last.
- Q1 usually has stars, then Q2 can be a mix because stars often sit part of Q2. This mostly fits that.
- Two Lakers in Q4 (and a former Laker)
- Sam Merrill? He's shooting an effective 98% in Q1/Q3, which won't last.
The average Net Pts value of an NBA double-double by type, over the last 2+ seasons.
- Pts+Ast most valuable by a little, +2.8
- Pts+Reb most common, +2.3
- Ast+Reb is negative about half the time, -0.7
There were 8 double-doubles yesterday, 2 negative:
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Pts+Ast most valuable by a little, +2.8
- Pts+Reb most common, +2.3
- Ast+Reb is negative about half the time, -0.7
There were 8 double-doubles yesterday, 2 negative:
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
November 5, 2025 at 1:36 PM
The average Net Pts value of an NBA double-double by type, over the last 2+ seasons.
- Pts+Ast most valuable by a little, +2.8
- Pts+Reb most common, +2.3
- Ast+Reb is negative about half the time, -0.7
There were 8 double-doubles yesterday, 2 negative:
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Pts+Ast most valuable by a little, +2.8
- Pts+Reb most common, +2.3
- Ast+Reb is negative about half the time, -0.7
There were 8 double-doubles yesterday, 2 negative:
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
We've had 8 triple-doubles in the NBA thus far, four by Nikola Jokic.
Triple-doubles are a shorthand for "good game," but not all triple-doubles are good games.
On average, they are. This year's averaged +5.4 total net points per player.
But here are two very different ones from Jokic.
Triple-doubles are a shorthand for "good game," but not all triple-doubles are good games.
On average, they are. This year's averaged +5.4 total net points per player.
But here are two very different ones from Jokic.
November 4, 2025 at 6:58 PM
We've had 8 triple-doubles in the NBA thus far, four by Nikola Jokic.
Triple-doubles are a shorthand for "good game," but not all triple-doubles are good games.
On average, they are. This year's averaged +5.4 total net points per player.
But here are two very different ones from Jokic.
Triple-doubles are a shorthand for "good game," but not all triple-doubles are good games.
On average, they are. This year's averaged +5.4 total net points per player.
But here are two very different ones from Jokic.
Houston leads the NBA in both FTM and opponents' FTM, making 26.3 per game, allowing 13.5.
The advantage isn't 26.3 minus 13.5 (12.8), though, because they're taking 15 more FTA per G. Accounting for that, Houston's actual Net Points on free throws is +4.5 per game.
espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4FA
The advantage isn't 26.3 minus 13.5 (12.8), though, because they're taking 15 more FTA per G. Accounting for that, Houston's actual Net Points on free throws is +4.5 per game.
espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4FA
November 4, 2025 at 6:26 PM
Houston leads the NBA in both FTM and opponents' FTM, making 26.3 per game, allowing 13.5.
The advantage isn't 26.3 minus 13.5 (12.8), though, because they're taking 15 more FTA per G. Accounting for that, Houston's actual Net Points on free throws is +4.5 per game.
espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4FA
The advantage isn't 26.3 minus 13.5 (12.8), though, because they're taking 15 more FTA per G. Accounting for that, Houston's actual Net Points on free throws is +4.5 per game.
espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4FA
Update on the rookies, looking at their season timelines of total Net Pts
- Coward started great, but James has caught him
- Knueppel had his best game yesterday
- Edgecombe and Harper both positive and using 20+% of possessions
Obviously plenty of noise in their development.
- Coward started great, but James has caught him
- Knueppel had his best game yesterday
- Edgecombe and Harper both positive and using 20+% of possessions
Obviously plenty of noise in their development.
November 3, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Update on the rookies, looking at their season timelines of total Net Pts
- Coward started great, but James has caught him
- Knueppel had his best game yesterday
- Edgecombe and Harper both positive and using 20+% of possessions
Obviously plenty of noise in their development.
- Coward started great, but James has caught him
- Knueppel had his best game yesterday
- Edgecombe and Harper both positive and using 20+% of possessions
Obviously plenty of noise in their development.
No one is used to seeing Victor Wembanyama on the far right end of the Analytics Daily Awards.
- Worst in turnovers
- Worst in overall offense
- Worst in net points on field goal attempts
- And, yes, worst overall yesterday
(Just one bad game.)
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Worst in turnovers
- Worst in overall offense
- Worst in net points on field goal attempts
- And, yes, worst overall yesterday
(Just one bad game.)
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
November 3, 2025 at 1:45 PM
No one is used to seeing Victor Wembanyama on the far right end of the Analytics Daily Awards.
- Worst in turnovers
- Worst in overall offense
- Worst in net points on field goal attempts
- And, yes, worst overall yesterday
(Just one bad game.)
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Worst in turnovers
- Worst in overall offense
- Worst in net points on field goal attempts
- And, yes, worst overall yesterday
(Just one bad game.)
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Last night's NBA Daily Awards
- Duren and Cunningham carried Detroit
- Scheierman did most of his damage in garbage time (just +3.4 in normal time)
- Wembanyama has 3 dates with Stopper award, Draymond with 2. Suggs gets his first, but likely not last.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Duren and Cunningham carried Detroit
- Scheierman did most of his damage in garbage time (just +3.4 in normal time)
- Wembanyama has 3 dates with Stopper award, Draymond with 2. Suggs gets his first, but likely not last.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
November 2, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Last night's NBA Daily Awards
- Duren and Cunningham carried Detroit
- Scheierman did most of his damage in garbage time (just +3.4 in normal time)
- Wembanyama has 3 dates with Stopper award, Draymond with 2. Suggs gets his first, but likely not last.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Duren and Cunningham carried Detroit
- Scheierman did most of his damage in garbage time (just +3.4 in normal time)
- Wembanyama has 3 dates with Stopper award, Draymond with 2. Suggs gets his first, but likely not last.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
NBA Sophomore update in Net Pts/Game:
- Mitchell not slowing down
- Wizards trio had a rough one last night, espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
- Castle, Spencer, Sheppard climbing and have 20+% share of the offense
- Mitchell not slowing down
- Wizards trio had a rough one last night, espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
- Castle, Spencer, Sheppard climbing and have 20+% share of the offense
November 2, 2025 at 1:58 PM
NBA Sophomore update in Net Pts/Game:
- Mitchell not slowing down
- Wizards trio had a rough one last night, espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
- Castle, Spencer, Sheppard climbing and have 20+% share of the offense
- Mitchell not slowing down
- Wizards trio had a rough one last night, espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
- Castle, Spencer, Sheppard climbing and have 20+% share of the offense
With the conflict between Ja Morant and his fairly new head coach, a suspension doesn't hurt the Grizz as much because Morant isn't playing as well...
But the primary reason his offense is down is because he's shooting 16% from 3, a flukey thing.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
But the primary reason his offense is down is because he's shooting 16% from 3, a flukey thing.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
November 2, 2025 at 1:47 PM
With the conflict between Ja Morant and his fairly new head coach, a suspension doesn't hurt the Grizz as much because Morant isn't playing as well...
But the primary reason his offense is down is because he's shooting 16% from 3, a flukey thing.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
But the primary reason his offense is down is because he's shooting 16% from 3, a flukey thing.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
One prediction I had was that the Hornets were not going to be bottom of the barrel on offense. They're top ten now and, even if their 3pt shooting regresses to average, their overall offense goes to about average. So that one is on track.
espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4FA
espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4FA
October 31, 2025 at 8:13 PM
One prediction I had was that the Hornets were not going to be bottom of the barrel on offense. They're top ten now and, even if their 3pt shooting regresses to average, their overall offense goes to about average. So that one is on track.
espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4FA
espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4FA