Dean Oliver
@deanolytics.bsky.social
Sports analytics pioneer, focusing most on basketball. ESPN, NBA.
Pinned
Dean Oliver
@deanolytics.bsky.social
· Jan 22
Piece of Harmony
Aligning team and player incentives in credit and blame
open.substack.com
How should a husband and wife divide credit when she says, "Remind me to go to the drugstore," and then he does it? How to divide credit if she remembers? How to divide the blame if neither remembers? ... with basketball sprinkled in.
open.substack.com/pub/ldeano/p...
open.substack.com/pub/ldeano/p...
A great defensive game last night: Oso Ighodaro with +11 defensive net pts, best of the year
- Contested 17 shots, allowing 1 make (GeniusIQ). 3 stls, 3 blks. 26 minutes
- Team allowed 35 pts on 53 poss with him in
- Not a single defensive highlight on TV. That's defense - often anonymous.
- Contested 17 shots, allowing 1 make (GeniusIQ). 3 stls, 3 blks. 26 minutes
- Team allowed 35 pts on 53 poss with him in
- Not a single defensive highlight on TV. That's defense - often anonymous.
November 14, 2025 at 1:23 PM
A great defensive game last night: Oso Ighodaro with +11 defensive net pts, best of the year
- Contested 17 shots, allowing 1 make (GeniusIQ). 3 stls, 3 blks. 26 minutes
- Team allowed 35 pts on 53 poss with him in
- Not a single defensive highlight on TV. That's defense - often anonymous.
- Contested 17 shots, allowing 1 make (GeniusIQ). 3 stls, 3 blks. 26 minutes
- Team allowed 35 pts on 53 poss with him in
- Not a single defensive highlight on TV. That's defense - often anonymous.
After Cade Cunningham's 31-miss night on Monday, some people asked what other Pistons should be shooting with so many injuries.
Last night provided some answer: Duncan Robinson and Paul Reed. Both ramped up usage with good efficiency.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Likely a mix in long run.
Last night provided some answer: Duncan Robinson and Paul Reed. Both ramped up usage with good efficiency.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Likely a mix in long run.
November 13, 2025 at 3:53 PM
After Cade Cunningham's 31-miss night on Monday, some people asked what other Pistons should be shooting with so many injuries.
Last night provided some answer: Duncan Robinson and Paul Reed. Both ramped up usage with good efficiency.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Likely a mix in long run.
Last night provided some answer: Duncan Robinson and Paul Reed. Both ramped up usage with good efficiency.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Likely a mix in long run.
Yesterday had two players with positive net points despite having a -20 or worse plus/minus.
- Keon Ellis, -23 and +1.5 net pts
- James Harden, -24 and +0.9
Only 5-7% of players with +/- of -20 or worse are positive, average being about -5.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Keon Ellis, -23 and +1.5 net pts
- James Harden, -24 and +0.9
Only 5-7% of players with +/- of -20 or worse are positive, average being about -5.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
November 13, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Yesterday had two players with positive net points despite having a -20 or worse plus/minus.
- Keon Ellis, -23 and +1.5 net pts
- James Harden, -24 and +0.9
Only 5-7% of players with +/- of -20 or worse are positive, average being about -5.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Keon Ellis, -23 and +1.5 net pts
- James Harden, -24 and +0.9
Only 5-7% of players with +/- of -20 or worse are positive, average being about -5.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Nikola Jokic had the best night of the season, with +19.8 net pts, 55 pts scored, on 18/23 shooting, just 2 tov.
Nuggets won by 14, so Jokic had a "threshold win," meaning they would have lost without his net pts
Jokic now has 3 threshold wins, NBA's most, averaging +15 in them, NBA's best
Nuggets won by 14, so Jokic had a "threshold win," meaning they would have lost without his net pts
Jokic now has 3 threshold wins, NBA's most, averaging +15 in them, NBA's best
November 13, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Nikola Jokic had the best night of the season, with +19.8 net pts, 55 pts scored, on 18/23 shooting, just 2 tov.
Nuggets won by 14, so Jokic had a "threshold win," meaning they would have lost without his net pts
Jokic now has 3 threshold wins, NBA's most, averaging +15 in them, NBA's best
Nuggets won by 14, so Jokic had a "threshold win," meaning they would have lost without his net pts
Jokic now has 3 threshold wins, NBA's most, averaging +15 in them, NBA's best
Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 23.1 ppg after 18.2 last year.
But is he better?
He shot an effective 60% last year, 55% this year. Turnovers have doubled, but getting to the foul line more.
By offensive net pts, he was at +1.4 per 48 min and +0.9 this year. Likely not candidate for Most Improved
But is he better?
He shot an effective 60% last year, 55% this year. Turnovers have doubled, but getting to the foul line more.
By offensive net pts, he was at +1.4 per 48 min and +0.9 this year. Likely not candidate for Most Improved
November 12, 2025 at 8:55 PM
Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 23.1 ppg after 18.2 last year.
But is he better?
He shot an effective 60% last year, 55% this year. Turnovers have doubled, but getting to the foul line more.
By offensive net pts, he was at +1.4 per 48 min and +0.9 this year. Likely not candidate for Most Improved
But is he better?
He shot an effective 60% last year, 55% this year. Turnovers have doubled, but getting to the foul line more.
By offensive net pts, he was at +1.4 per 48 min and +0.9 this year. Likely not candidate for Most Improved
In each of his last two games, Ja Morant has posted -10 or worse net points, awful games. He hasn't had a positive game since October...and his suspension was on Nov 2.
It doesn't look like they resolved the issues.
It doesn't look like they resolved the issues.
November 12, 2025 at 1:37 PM
In each of his last two games, Ja Morant has posted -10 or worse net points, awful games. He hasn't had a positive game since October...and his suspension was on Nov 2.
It doesn't look like they resolved the issues.
It doesn't look like they resolved the issues.
Since The Trade,
- Anthony Davis has been worth 0.6 wins above replacement (WAR)
- Luka Doncic has been worth 7.2.
And that's ignoring the playoffs as well as the projected future.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-ptsWAR
- Anthony Davis has been worth 0.6 wins above replacement (WAR)
- Luka Doncic has been worth 7.2.
And that's ignoring the playoffs as well as the projected future.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-ptsWAR
November 11, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Since The Trade,
- Anthony Davis has been worth 0.6 wins above replacement (WAR)
- Luka Doncic has been worth 7.2.
And that's ignoring the playoffs as well as the projected future.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-ptsWAR
- Anthony Davis has been worth 0.6 wins above replacement (WAR)
- Luka Doncic has been worth 7.2.
And that's ignoring the playoffs as well as the projected future.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-ptsWAR
I watched highlights of the OKC-MEM game, a few showing Ja Morant doing good things. It gave me no indication that he went 3/18 from the field!
It's that kind of highlight package that make good storytelling metrics in the box score useful.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
It's that kind of highlight package that make good storytelling metrics in the box score useful.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
November 10, 2025 at 1:44 PM
I watched highlights of the OKC-MEM game, a few showing Ja Morant doing good things. It gave me no indication that he went 3/18 from the field!
It's that kind of highlight package that make good storytelling metrics in the box score useful.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
It's that kind of highlight package that make good storytelling metrics in the box score useful.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
OKC is 9-1 with a +13.5 scoring margin per game.
WAS is 1-9 with a -17.0 scoring margin per game.
One team nearly perfectly good and one nearly perfectly bad and the difference in scoring margins is 30 per G, which is about the avg number of net points per win.
espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4FA
WAS is 1-9 with a -17.0 scoring margin per game.
One team nearly perfectly good and one nearly perfectly bad and the difference in scoring margins is 30 per G, which is about the avg number of net points per win.
espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4FA
NBA Net Points - ESPN Analytics
Models and data visualization from ESPN Analytics. NBA & NFL Draft, schedule analysis, receiver scores and more.
espnanalytics.com
November 9, 2025 at 1:00 PM
OKC is 9-1 with a +13.5 scoring margin per game.
WAS is 1-9 with a -17.0 scoring margin per game.
One team nearly perfectly good and one nearly perfectly bad and the difference in scoring margins is 30 per G, which is about the avg number of net points per win.
espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4FA
WAS is 1-9 with a -17.0 scoring margin per game.
One team nearly perfectly good and one nearly perfectly bad and the difference in scoring margins is 30 per G, which is about the avg number of net points per win.
espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4FA
These are the best and worst offensive performances by the Four Factors accounting for teams, splitting the shooting factor into 2pt/3pt.
- Dallas' 10/22 on 2s was against Wemby
- Biggest range is for 3s - yes, they're important
- Having a negative at the foul line is rare
- Dallas' 10/22 on 2s was against Wemby
- Biggest range is for 3s - yes, they're important
- Having a negative at the foul line is rare
November 7, 2025 at 8:57 PM
These are the best and worst offensive performances by the Four Factors accounting for teams, splitting the shooting factor into 2pt/3pt.
- Dallas' 10/22 on 2s was against Wemby
- Biggest range is for 3s - yes, they're important
- Having a negative at the foul line is rare
- Dallas' 10/22 on 2s was against Wemby
- Biggest range is for 3s - yes, they're important
- Having a negative at the foul line is rare
Early season, statistically significant performance changes from prior yrs are rare. A few of interest:
- CP3 is down on O
- Julius Randle, Mathurin is up on O
- Domantas Sabonis, JJJ, Bane down overall
- Jerami Grant, Mathurin up overall
- Castle up on D
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
- CP3 is down on O
- Julius Randle, Mathurin is up on O
- Domantas Sabonis, JJJ, Bane down overall
- Jerami Grant, Mathurin up overall
- Castle up on D
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
November 7, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Early season, statistically significant performance changes from prior yrs are rare. A few of interest:
- CP3 is down on O
- Julius Randle, Mathurin is up on O
- Domantas Sabonis, JJJ, Bane down overall
- Jerami Grant, Mathurin up overall
- Castle up on D
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
- CP3 is down on O
- Julius Randle, Mathurin is up on O
- Domantas Sabonis, JJJ, Bane down overall
- Jerami Grant, Mathurin up overall
- Castle up on D
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
Recently, Denver has had the biggest drop between their starters and the bench, mainly because of Jokic.
But this year...well, it's almost the same. They're behind Cleveland, Knicks, Jazz.
- Memphis has bench better than starters to biggest margin
- Heat bench is 🔥
But this year...well, it's almost the same. They're behind Cleveland, Knicks, Jazz.
- Memphis has bench better than starters to biggest margin
- Heat bench is 🔥
November 6, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Recently, Denver has had the biggest drop between their starters and the bench, mainly because of Jokic.
But this year...well, it's almost the same. They're behind Cleveland, Knicks, Jazz.
- Memphis has bench better than starters to biggest margin
- Heat bench is 🔥
But this year...well, it's almost the same. They're behind Cleveland, Knicks, Jazz.
- Memphis has bench better than starters to biggest margin
- Heat bench is 🔥
Spida Net Points of +15.7 yesterday ranks as the 4th best game of this young season behind
- Aaron Gordon's 50 pt night on 10/23, +17.0 net pts
- Wemby on 10/22, +16.7
- Reaves' 51 pt night on 10/26, +16.5
Just ahead of Jokic's +14.9 last night.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Aaron Gordon's 50 pt night on 10/23, +17.0 net pts
- Wemby on 10/22, +16.7
- Reaves' 51 pt night on 10/26, +16.5
Just ahead of Jokic's +14.9 last night.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
November 6, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Spida Net Points of +15.7 yesterday ranks as the 4th best game of this young season behind
- Aaron Gordon's 50 pt night on 10/23, +17.0 net pts
- Wemby on 10/22, +16.7
- Reaves' 51 pt night on 10/26, +16.5
Just ahead of Jokic's +14.9 last night.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Aaron Gordon's 50 pt night on 10/23, +17.0 net pts
- Wemby on 10/22, +16.7
- Reaves' 51 pt night on 10/26, +16.5
Just ahead of Jokic's +14.9 last night.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Update on NBA Sophomores by Net Pts per game
- Mitchell was negative last night and Castle was positive
- Risacher moving up
- Ron Holland II helping the Pistons
You can see these numbers by changing the Draft Year at
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
- Mitchell was negative last night and Castle was positive
- Risacher moving up
- Ron Holland II helping the Pistons
You can see these numbers by changing the Draft Year at
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
November 6, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Update on NBA Sophomores by Net Pts per game
- Mitchell was negative last night and Castle was positive
- Risacher moving up
- Ron Holland II helping the Pistons
You can see these numbers by changing the Draft Year at
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
- Mitchell was negative last night and Castle was positive
- Risacher moving up
- Ron Holland II helping the Pistons
You can see these numbers by changing the Draft Year at
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
Reposted by Dean Oliver
@deanolytics.bsky.social was on the latest Wharton Moneyball podcast with topics including Victor Wembanyama’s game-changing impact on defense, the development curve of elite rookies, and how analytics are influencing strategy across the NBA.
Early NBA Trends with Dean Oliver
Podcast Episode · Wharton Moneyball · 11/05/2025 · 1h 3m
podcasts.apple.com
November 5, 2025 at 3:45 PM
@deanolytics.bsky.social was on the latest Wharton Moneyball podcast with topics including Victor Wembanyama’s game-changing impact on defense, the development curve of elite rookies, and how analytics are influencing strategy across the NBA.
Here are the NBA's best players by quarter (removing garbage time).
- Q1 usually has stars, then Q2 can be a mix because stars often sit part of Q2. This mostly fits that.
- Two Lakers in Q4 (and a former Laker)
- Sam Merrill? He's shooting an effective 98% in Q1/Q3, which won't last.
- Q1 usually has stars, then Q2 can be a mix because stars often sit part of Q2. This mostly fits that.
- Two Lakers in Q4 (and a former Laker)
- Sam Merrill? He's shooting an effective 98% in Q1/Q3, which won't last.
November 5, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Here are the NBA's best players by quarter (removing garbage time).
- Q1 usually has stars, then Q2 can be a mix because stars often sit part of Q2. This mostly fits that.
- Two Lakers in Q4 (and a former Laker)
- Sam Merrill? He's shooting an effective 98% in Q1/Q3, which won't last.
- Q1 usually has stars, then Q2 can be a mix because stars often sit part of Q2. This mostly fits that.
- Two Lakers in Q4 (and a former Laker)
- Sam Merrill? He's shooting an effective 98% in Q1/Q3, which won't last.
The average Net Pts value of an NBA double-double by type, over the last 2+ seasons.
- Pts+Ast most valuable by a little, +2.8
- Pts+Reb most common, +2.3
- Ast+Reb is negative about half the time, -0.7
There were 8 double-doubles yesterday, 2 negative:
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Pts+Ast most valuable by a little, +2.8
- Pts+Reb most common, +2.3
- Ast+Reb is negative about half the time, -0.7
There were 8 double-doubles yesterday, 2 negative:
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
November 5, 2025 at 1:36 PM
The average Net Pts value of an NBA double-double by type, over the last 2+ seasons.
- Pts+Ast most valuable by a little, +2.8
- Pts+Reb most common, +2.3
- Ast+Reb is negative about half the time, -0.7
There were 8 double-doubles yesterday, 2 negative:
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Pts+Ast most valuable by a little, +2.8
- Pts+Reb most common, +2.3
- Ast+Reb is negative about half the time, -0.7
There were 8 double-doubles yesterday, 2 negative:
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
We've had 8 triple-doubles in the NBA thus far, four by Nikola Jokic.
Triple-doubles are a shorthand for "good game," but not all triple-doubles are good games.
On average, they are. This year's averaged +5.4 total net points per player.
But here are two very different ones from Jokic.
Triple-doubles are a shorthand for "good game," but not all triple-doubles are good games.
On average, they are. This year's averaged +5.4 total net points per player.
But here are two very different ones from Jokic.
November 4, 2025 at 6:58 PM
We've had 8 triple-doubles in the NBA thus far, four by Nikola Jokic.
Triple-doubles are a shorthand for "good game," but not all triple-doubles are good games.
On average, they are. This year's averaged +5.4 total net points per player.
But here are two very different ones from Jokic.
Triple-doubles are a shorthand for "good game," but not all triple-doubles are good games.
On average, they are. This year's averaged +5.4 total net points per player.
But here are two very different ones from Jokic.
Houston leads the NBA in both FTM and opponents' FTM, making 26.3 per game, allowing 13.5.
The advantage isn't 26.3 minus 13.5 (12.8), though, because they're taking 15 more FTA per G. Accounting for that, Houston's actual Net Points on free throws is +4.5 per game.
espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4FA
The advantage isn't 26.3 minus 13.5 (12.8), though, because they're taking 15 more FTA per G. Accounting for that, Houston's actual Net Points on free throws is +4.5 per game.
espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4FA
November 4, 2025 at 6:26 PM
Houston leads the NBA in both FTM and opponents' FTM, making 26.3 per game, allowing 13.5.
The advantage isn't 26.3 minus 13.5 (12.8), though, because they're taking 15 more FTA per G. Accounting for that, Houston's actual Net Points on free throws is +4.5 per game.
espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4FA
The advantage isn't 26.3 minus 13.5 (12.8), though, because they're taking 15 more FTA per G. Accounting for that, Houston's actual Net Points on free throws is +4.5 per game.
espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4FA
Cooper Flagg's offensive Net Pts per 48 minutes
With point guards D-Lo or B Williams on court: +2.5
Without both: -8.6
The difference is statistically significant. Other Mavs play worse without one of those two, but Flagg's drop is most significant.
With point guards D-Lo or B Williams on court: +2.5
Without both: -8.6
The difference is statistically significant. Other Mavs play worse without one of those two, but Flagg's drop is most significant.
November 3, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Cooper Flagg's offensive Net Pts per 48 minutes
With point guards D-Lo or B Williams on court: +2.5
Without both: -8.6
The difference is statistically significant. Other Mavs play worse without one of those two, but Flagg's drop is most significant.
With point guards D-Lo or B Williams on court: +2.5
Without both: -8.6
The difference is statistically significant. Other Mavs play worse without one of those two, but Flagg's drop is most significant.
Update on the rookies, looking at their season timelines of total Net Pts
- Coward started great, but James has caught him
- Knueppel had his best game yesterday
- Edgecombe and Harper both positive and using 20+% of possessions
Obviously plenty of noise in their development.
- Coward started great, but James has caught him
- Knueppel had his best game yesterday
- Edgecombe and Harper both positive and using 20+% of possessions
Obviously plenty of noise in their development.
November 3, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Update on the rookies, looking at their season timelines of total Net Pts
- Coward started great, but James has caught him
- Knueppel had his best game yesterday
- Edgecombe and Harper both positive and using 20+% of possessions
Obviously plenty of noise in their development.
- Coward started great, but James has caught him
- Knueppel had his best game yesterday
- Edgecombe and Harper both positive and using 20+% of possessions
Obviously plenty of noise in their development.
No one is used to seeing Victor Wembanyama on the far right end of the Analytics Daily Awards.
- Worst in turnovers
- Worst in overall offense
- Worst in net points on field goal attempts
- And, yes, worst overall yesterday
(Just one bad game.)
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Worst in turnovers
- Worst in overall offense
- Worst in net points on field goal attempts
- And, yes, worst overall yesterday
(Just one bad game.)
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
November 3, 2025 at 1:45 PM
No one is used to seeing Victor Wembanyama on the far right end of the Analytics Daily Awards.
- Worst in turnovers
- Worst in overall offense
- Worst in net points on field goal attempts
- And, yes, worst overall yesterday
(Just one bad game.)
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Worst in turnovers
- Worst in overall offense
- Worst in net points on field goal attempts
- And, yes, worst overall yesterday
(Just one bad game.)
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
It still strikes me that a big part of what analytics said about sports is that the top athletes and coaches in the world were too cautious, not aggressive enough: Shooting 3s over mid range, going for it in 4th down, no bunts, for example.
November 2, 2025 at 10:34 PM
It still strikes me that a big part of what analytics said about sports is that the top athletes and coaches in the world were too cautious, not aggressive enough: Shooting 3s over mid range, going for it in 4th down, no bunts, for example.
Last night's NBA Daily Awards
- Duren and Cunningham carried Detroit
- Scheierman did most of his damage in garbage time (just +3.4 in normal time)
- Wembanyama has 3 dates with Stopper award, Draymond with 2. Suggs gets his first, but likely not last.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Duren and Cunningham carried Detroit
- Scheierman did most of his damage in garbage time (just +3.4 in normal time)
- Wembanyama has 3 dates with Stopper award, Draymond with 2. Suggs gets his first, but likely not last.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
November 2, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Last night's NBA Daily Awards
- Duren and Cunningham carried Detroit
- Scheierman did most of his damage in garbage time (just +3.4 in normal time)
- Wembanyama has 3 dates with Stopper award, Draymond with 2. Suggs gets his first, but likely not last.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
- Duren and Cunningham carried Detroit
- Scheierman did most of his damage in garbage time (just +3.4 in normal time)
- Wembanyama has 3 dates with Stopper award, Draymond with 2. Suggs gets his first, but likely not last.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Cooper Flagg hasn't been good thus far with -1.7 Net Pts per G.
Last night's G was interesting, though. He shot a bad 3/14, but his offensive net pts was -1.0, top 30% or so of guys who shoot that badly. Thx to secondary aspects: 8/8 on FTs, 4 ast, 1 tov, 8 reb.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
Last night's G was interesting, though. He shot a bad 3/14, but his offensive net pts was -1.0, top 30% or so of guys who shoot that badly. Thx to secondary aspects: 8/8 on FTs, 4 ast, 1 tov, 8 reb.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
November 2, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Cooper Flagg hasn't been good thus far with -1.7 Net Pts per G.
Last night's G was interesting, though. He shot a bad 3/14, but his offensive net pts was -1.0, top 30% or so of guys who shoot that badly. Thx to secondary aspects: 8/8 on FTs, 4 ast, 1 tov, 8 reb.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
Last night's G was interesting, though. He shot a bad 3/14, but his offensive net pts was -1.0, top 30% or so of guys who shoot that badly. Thx to secondary aspects: 8/8 on FTs, 4 ast, 1 tov, 8 reb.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...