Dean Oliver
@deanolytics.bsky.social
Sports analytics pioneer, focusing most on basketball. ESPN, NBA.
Pinned
Dean Oliver
@deanolytics.bsky.social
· Jan 22
Piece of Harmony
Aligning team and player incentives in credit and blame
open.substack.com
How should a husband and wife divide credit when she says, "Remind me to go to the drugstore," and then he does it? How to divide credit if she remembers? How to divide the blame if neither remembers? ... with basketball sprinkled in.
open.substack.com/pub/ldeano/p...
open.substack.com/pub/ldeano/p...
Best players by quarter on a per-100 poss basis, no garbage time
- A lot of usual names
- Keldon Johnson is reasonable Most Improved candidate
- Goga not scoring a lot in Q3, but D is great and shooting 86%
- OT: DeRozan, SGA, Jokic, Keyonte George, Ant
- A lot of usual names
- Keldon Johnson is reasonable Most Improved candidate
- Goga not scoring a lot in Q3, but D is great and shooting 86%
- OT: DeRozan, SGA, Jokic, Keyonte George, Ant
January 2, 2026 at 3:45 PM
Best players by quarter on a per-100 poss basis, no garbage time
- A lot of usual names
- Keldon Johnson is reasonable Most Improved candidate
- Goga not scoring a lot in Q3, but D is great and shooting 86%
- OT: DeRozan, SGA, Jokic, Keyonte George, Ant
- A lot of usual names
- Keldon Johnson is reasonable Most Improved candidate
- Goga not scoring a lot in Q3, but D is great and shooting 86%
- OT: DeRozan, SGA, Jokic, Keyonte George, Ant
Best bench players (fixed)
- Ajay Mitchell good on both sides of the ball. Garza, Spencer, Sheppard good on O
- Jaquez at +0.8, 14th
- (Wemby came off the bench 6 times, posting +4.6 net pts/G)
- Only games they came off the bench
- Ajay Mitchell good on both sides of the ball. Garza, Spencer, Sheppard good on O
- Jaquez at +0.8, 14th
- (Wemby came off the bench 6 times, posting +4.6 net pts/G)
- Only games they came off the bench
January 2, 2026 at 2:53 PM
Best bench players (fixed)
- Ajay Mitchell good on both sides of the ball. Garza, Spencer, Sheppard good on O
- Jaquez at +0.8, 14th
- (Wemby came off the bench 6 times, posting +4.6 net pts/G)
- Only games they came off the bench
- Ajay Mitchell good on both sides of the ball. Garza, Spencer, Sheppard good on O
- Jaquez at +0.8, 14th
- (Wemby came off the bench 6 times, posting +4.6 net pts/G)
- Only games they came off the bench
Bottom 10 players in clutch performance (offensive net points)
- Two rookies: Coward, Queen
- Embiid can't get to the line, turns it over a lot
- None of these guys ranks higher than 91st in overall O performance (non-clutch)
- Two rookies: Coward, Queen
- Embiid can't get to the line, turns it over a lot
- None of these guys ranks higher than 91st in overall O performance (non-clutch)
January 2, 2026 at 1:33 PM
Bottom 10 players in clutch performance (offensive net points)
- Two rookies: Coward, Queen
- Embiid can't get to the line, turns it over a lot
- None of these guys ranks higher than 91st in overall O performance (non-clutch)
- Two rookies: Coward, Queen
- Embiid can't get to the line, turns it over a lot
- None of these guys ranks higher than 91st in overall O performance (non-clutch)
If Jokic doesn't play another minute this year, he has posted 214 Total net points.
That is more than all but four players posted during the entire previous season, one of those four being himself.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts
That is more than all but four players posted during the entire previous season, one of those four being himself.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts
December 31, 2025 at 7:56 PM
If Jokic doesn't play another minute this year, he has posted 214 Total net points.
That is more than all but four players posted during the entire previous season, one of those four being himself.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts
That is more than all but four players posted during the entire previous season, one of those four being himself.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts
VJ Edgecombe has been good in the clutch this year, +4.5 offensive net pts/100 tm poss, shooting an effective 78%.
But Cooper Flagg has been essentially equally good at +4.4, getting to the line a ton.
Both are top 15 in the league in total offensive net pts added in the clutch
But Cooper Flagg has been essentially equally good at +4.4, getting to the line a ton.
Both are top 15 in the league in total offensive net pts added in the clutch
December 31, 2025 at 6:08 PM
VJ Edgecombe has been good in the clutch this year, +4.5 offensive net pts/100 tm poss, shooting an effective 78%.
But Cooper Flagg has been essentially equally good at +4.4, getting to the line a ton.
Both are top 15 in the league in total offensive net pts added in the clutch
But Cooper Flagg has been essentially equally good at +4.4, getting to the line a ton.
Both are top 15 in the league in total offensive net pts added in the clutch
Players who have shown in-season changes in productivity
- Green = Improvers, Red = Decliners
- Randle, Mathurin, Maxey hot O starts now cooling
- MPJ getting better
- 3 OKC players decline
- Brunson, Reaves, Murray showing D declines
- Green = Improvers, Red = Decliners
- Randle, Mathurin, Maxey hot O starts now cooling
- MPJ getting better
- 3 OKC players decline
- Brunson, Reaves, Murray showing D declines
December 30, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Players who have shown in-season changes in productivity
- Green = Improvers, Red = Decliners
- Randle, Mathurin, Maxey hot O starts now cooling
- MPJ getting better
- 3 OKC players decline
- Brunson, Reaves, Murray showing D declines
- Green = Improvers, Red = Decliners
- Randle, Mathurin, Maxey hot O starts now cooling
- MPJ getting better
- 3 OKC players decline
- Brunson, Reaves, Murray showing D declines
Below is Chris Paul's aggregate net points by date this year. There is a pause on Nov 6 and, when he returns, it's all downhill. It's a statistically significant decline in performance and fits with the story here:
www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
December 30, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Below is Chris Paul's aggregate net points by date this year. There is a pause on Nov 6 and, when he returns, it's all downhill. It's a statistically significant decline in performance and fits with the story here:
www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
Offensive productivity is a function of how efficient players are and how much they use possessions.
- More of each is better as long as their efficiency is above a certain level
- Low usage Butler can still be productive with his high efficiency
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
- More of each is better as long as their efficiency is above a certain level
- Low usage Butler can still be productive with his high efficiency
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
December 30, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Offensive productivity is a function of how efficient players are and how much they use possessions.
- More of each is better as long as their efficiency is above a certain level
- Low usage Butler can still be productive with his high efficiency
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
- More of each is better as long as their efficiency is above a certain level
- Low usage Butler can still be productive with his high efficiency
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
Triple-doubles this year
- Jokic has the most, worth an average of +6.2 net points per game. He has one game with net pts below zero
- Banchero had one yesterday. He's averaged just +1.6 in his and his +/- was negative in each
- On average, triple-doubles worth +4.7 net pts/G
- Jokic has the most, worth an average of +6.2 net points per game. He has one game with net pts below zero
- Banchero had one yesterday. He's averaged just +1.6 in his and his +/- was negative in each
- On average, triple-doubles worth +4.7 net pts/G
December 30, 2025 at 1:22 PM
Triple-doubles this year
- Jokic has the most, worth an average of +6.2 net points per game. He has one game with net pts below zero
- Banchero had one yesterday. He's averaged just +1.6 in his and his +/- was negative in each
- On average, triple-doubles worth +4.7 net pts/G
- Jokic has the most, worth an average of +6.2 net points per game. He has one game with net pts below zero
- Banchero had one yesterday. He's averaged just +1.6 in his and his +/- was negative in each
- On average, triple-doubles worth +4.7 net pts/G
These are the most inconsistent players this year, using +3 and -3 net points as cutoffs for good/bad games.
(To anticipate questions: "Consistent" players are either consistent good, bad, or average, so that's 3 different lists.)
(To anticipate questions: "Consistent" players are either consistent good, bad, or average, so that's 3 different lists.)
December 29, 2025 at 7:02 PM
These are the most inconsistent players this year, using +3 and -3 net points as cutoffs for good/bad games.
(To anticipate questions: "Consistent" players are either consistent good, bad, or average, so that's 3 different lists.)
(To anticipate questions: "Consistent" players are either consistent good, bad, or average, so that's 3 different lists.)
Kawhi's 55-pt night last night was the 2nd best game of the year, posting +19.0 net pts in a game they won by 13 (a threshold win - where they "would have lost" without him). The 42% usage was his highest since his first year in LA, his best year in LA.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
December 29, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Kawhi's 55-pt night last night was the 2nd best game of the year, posting +19.0 net pts in a game they won by 13 (a threshold win - where they "would have lost" without him). The 42% usage was his highest since his first year in LA, his best year in LA.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
Reposted by Dean Oliver
Joining @dlocke09.bsky.social and special guests including @deanolytics.bsky.social on tonight's JazzCast Nerd Edition against the Magic for Jazz+ subscribers. Our alternate broadcast is also available as a one-off purchase in qualifying markets here: www.segplus.com/utahjazzplus...
segplus.com
www.segplus.com
December 20, 2025 at 10:54 PM
Joining @dlocke09.bsky.social and special guests including @deanolytics.bsky.social on tonight's JazzCast Nerd Edition against the Magic for Jazz+ subscribers. Our alternate broadcast is also available as a one-off purchase in qualifying markets here: www.segplus.com/utahjazzplus...
And the third-year NBA players
- Jordan Walsh has snuck onto this list
- Jaquez has cooled off after a great start
- Thompsons are solid, 3pt shooting hurting
- Despite good highlights yesterday, #2 pick Brandon Miller has struggled, espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
- Jordan Walsh has snuck onto this list
- Jaquez has cooled off after a great start
- Thompsons are solid, 3pt shooting hurting
- Despite good highlights yesterday, #2 pick Brandon Miller has struggled, espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
December 19, 2025 at 4:57 PM
And the third-year NBA players
- Jordan Walsh has snuck onto this list
- Jaquez has cooled off after a great start
- Thompsons are solid, 3pt shooting hurting
- Despite good highlights yesterday, #2 pick Brandon Miller has struggled, espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
- Jordan Walsh has snuck onto this list
- Jaquez has cooled off after a great start
- Thompsons are solid, 3pt shooting hurting
- Despite good highlights yesterday, #2 pick Brandon Miller has struggled, espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
Sophomore update
- Picks 1 and 2, Risacher and Sarr, down toward the bottom
- Picks 3 and 4, Sheppard and Castle, near the top.
- Picks 5 and 7, Holland and Clingan, solid. Pick 6 is Salaun who hasn't played a lot, but has been better than before.
- Picks 1 and 2, Risacher and Sarr, down toward the bottom
- Picks 3 and 4, Sheppard and Castle, near the top.
- Picks 5 and 7, Holland and Clingan, solid. Pick 6 is Salaun who hasn't played a lot, but has been better than before.
December 19, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Sophomore update
- Picks 1 and 2, Risacher and Sarr, down toward the bottom
- Picks 3 and 4, Sheppard and Castle, near the top.
- Picks 5 and 7, Holland and Clingan, solid. Pick 6 is Salaun who hasn't played a lot, but has been better than before.
- Picks 1 and 2, Risacher and Sarr, down toward the bottom
- Picks 3 and 4, Sheppard and Castle, near the top.
- Picks 5 and 7, Holland and Clingan, solid. Pick 6 is Salaun who hasn't played a lot, but has been better than before.
This, for the record, is yesterday's best/worst in the NBA. ESPNAnalytics.com also has breakdowns for why players are good or bad, as well as player gamelogs (click player names), and enhanced box scores.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
December 19, 2025 at 3:03 PM
This, for the record, is yesterday's best/worst in the NBA. ESPNAnalytics.com also has breakdowns for why players are good or bad, as well as player gamelogs (click player names), and enhanced box scores.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...
"I want to thank the Lord for Tyler Kolek," said Jalen Brunson last night.
Kolek has had four straight good games. He just had back-to-back career bests in net points. Three straight nights of career best at the rim.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
Kolek has had four straight good games. He just had back-to-back career bests in net points. Three straight nights of career best at the rim.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
December 19, 2025 at 1:37 PM
"I want to thank the Lord for Tyler Kolek," said Jalen Brunson last night.
Kolek has had four straight good games. He just had back-to-back career bests in net points. Three straight nights of career best at the rim.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
Kolek has had four straight good games. He just had back-to-back career bests in net points. Three straight nights of career best at the rim.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
A few other players who seem to play better at one position over the other (this year alone):
- KD, at the 3: +5.2 total/48 min | at the 4: -3.8
- Markkanen, 3/4: +3.7 | 5: -8.6
- JJJ, 4: +1.5 | 5: -2.0
- Filipowski, 5: +0.6 | 4: -1.8
- Ben Saraf, 1: +0.5 | 2: -11.0
- KD, at the 3: +5.2 total/48 min | at the 4: -3.8
- Markkanen, 3/4: +3.7 | 5: -8.6
- JJJ, 4: +1.5 | 5: -2.0
- Filipowski, 5: +0.6 | 4: -1.8
- Ben Saraf, 1: +0.5 | 2: -11.0
December 18, 2025 at 5:18 PM
A few other players who seem to play better at one position over the other (this year alone):
- KD, at the 3: +5.2 total/48 min | at the 4: -3.8
- Markkanen, 3/4: +3.7 | 5: -8.6
- JJJ, 4: +1.5 | 5: -2.0
- Filipowski, 5: +0.6 | 4: -1.8
- Ben Saraf, 1: +0.5 | 2: -11.0
- KD, at the 3: +5.2 total/48 min | at the 4: -3.8
- Markkanen, 3/4: +3.7 | 5: -8.6
- JJJ, 4: +1.5 | 5: -2.0
- Filipowski, 5: +0.6 | 4: -1.8
- Ben Saraf, 1: +0.5 | 2: -11.0
Anthony Davis when he plays the 4 or the 5
- Generally better as a 5 on both sides of the ball, but there are some years better at the 4
- Played more at the 4 in 2020 and 2021
- Generally better as a 5 on both sides of the ball, but there are some years better at the 4
- Played more at the 4 in 2020 and 2021
December 18, 2025 at 5:17 PM
Anthony Davis when he plays the 4 or the 5
- Generally better as a 5 on both sides of the ball, but there are some years better at the 4
- Played more at the 4 in 2020 and 2021
- Generally better as a 5 on both sides of the ball, but there are some years better at the 4
- Played more at the 4 in 2020 and 2021
The Spurs' defensive rating with Wemby on the court last night was the worst of any game this year.
When Wemby was defending Robinson especially, he either had to stick on Robinson to limit second shots or leave him and allow that potential.
When Wemby was defending Robinson especially, he either had to stick on Robinson to limit second shots or leave him and allow that potential.
December 17, 2025 at 2:29 PM
The Spurs' defensive rating with Wemby on the court last night was the worst of any game this year.
When Wemby was defending Robinson especially, he either had to stick on Robinson to limit second shots or leave him and allow that potential.
When Wemby was defending Robinson especially, he either had to stick on Robinson to limit second shots or leave him and allow that potential.
Last night, Tyler Kolek had the best game of his NBA career.
It was in a game that was widely watched, which likely means that the public thinks he's better than he is.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
It was in a game that was widely watched, which likely means that the public thinks he's better than he is.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
December 17, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Last night, Tyler Kolek had the best game of his NBA career.
It was in a game that was widely watched, which likely means that the public thinks he's better than he is.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
It was in a game that was widely watched, which likely means that the public thinks he's better than he is.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
Tonight's Louisville-Tennessee men's game features six prospects.
This listing of prospects is just a small part of our NBA Draft Simulator
espnanalytics.com/nba-draft-si...
This listing of prospects is just a small part of our NBA Draft Simulator
espnanalytics.com/nba-draft-si...
December 16, 2025 at 6:26 PM
Tonight's Louisville-Tennessee men's game features six prospects.
This listing of prospects is just a small part of our NBA Draft Simulator
espnanalytics.com/nba-draft-si...
This listing of prospects is just a small part of our NBA Draft Simulator
espnanalytics.com/nba-draft-si...
After last night's performance, Cooper Flagg has had 6 good games in his last 7 (vs good competition). It was 7 of 19 prior to then.
This is now suggestive of in-season growth. The change in trend is barely significant at the 5% level, so it could still be noise.
This is now suggestive of in-season growth. The change in trend is barely significant at the 5% level, so it could still be noise.
December 16, 2025 at 3:52 PM
After last night's performance, Cooper Flagg has had 6 good games in his last 7 (vs good competition). It was 7 of 19 prior to then.
This is now suggestive of in-season growth. The change in trend is barely significant at the 5% level, so it could still be noise.
This is now suggestive of in-season growth. The change in trend is barely significant at the 5% level, so it could still be noise.
Since the Clippers sent Chris Paul home, they won their first game and lost the subsequent four. The defense was good in the first two games.
Worst in NBA vs isos - that's the most glaring issue across play types and it's all the guys. Post-ups, pindowns also bad. (GeniusIQ)
Worst in NBA vs isos - that's the most glaring issue across play types and it's all the guys. Post-ups, pindowns also bad. (GeniusIQ)
December 16, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Since the Clippers sent Chris Paul home, they won their first game and lost the subsequent four. The defense was good in the first two games.
Worst in NBA vs isos - that's the most glaring issue across play types and it's all the guys. Post-ups, pindowns also bad. (GeniusIQ)
Worst in NBA vs isos - that's the most glaring issue across play types and it's all the guys. Post-ups, pindowns also bad. (GeniusIQ)
Reposted by Dean Oliver
Warriors vs Blazers
NET POINTS
Data via espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
For those interested in Net Points bookmark espnanalytics.com you can click on NBA daily summary to get awards, stats, & charts for each game.
And follow the creator @deanolytics.bsky.social who posts Net Points data here
NET POINTS
Data via espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
For those interested in Net Points bookmark espnanalytics.com you can click on NBA daily summary to get awards, stats, & charts for each game.
And follow the creator @deanolytics.bsky.social who posts Net Points data here
December 15, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Warriors vs Blazers
NET POINTS
Data via espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
For those interested in Net Points bookmark espnanalytics.com you can click on NBA daily summary to get awards, stats, & charts for each game.
And follow the creator @deanolytics.bsky.social who posts Net Points data here
NET POINTS
Data via espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
For those interested in Net Points bookmark espnanalytics.com you can click on NBA daily summary to get awards, stats, & charts for each game.
And follow the creator @deanolytics.bsky.social who posts Net Points data here
Kings notes:
- 2nd worst point differential
- Their bench is +4.4 net pts better per G than their starters, biggest diff in the league. Schroder, Russ, Achiuwa, Eubanks all play better off bench than as starters
- Many players having near-worst years.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
- 2nd worst point differential
- Their bench is +4.4 net pts better per G than their starters, biggest diff in the league. Schroder, Russ, Achiuwa, Eubanks all play better off bench than as starters
- Many players having near-worst years.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
December 15, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Kings notes:
- 2nd worst point differential
- Their bench is +4.4 net pts better per G than their starters, biggest diff in the league. Schroder, Russ, Achiuwa, Eubanks all play better off bench than as starters
- Many players having near-worst years.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100
- 2nd worst point differential
- Their bench is +4.4 net pts better per G than their starters, biggest diff in the league. Schroder, Russ, Achiuwa, Eubanks all play better off bench than as starters
- Many players having near-worst years.
espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100