David Brauer
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dbrauer.net
David Brauer
@dbrauer.net
9.3K followers 1.2K following 18K posts
Former journalist, long-time Minneapolitan, curator of Uptown’s borders and chief rememberer, Halloween Blizzard of 1991. Posts too much about Minneapolis politics and knows it, but old professional habits die hard.
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dbrauer.net
2/ 53 precincts weren’t redistricted 2021 to 2025; in 47, there was no change in the winner. (This assumes a precinct won by Kate Knuth in 2021 and Fateh in 2025 isn’t a flip). Only 1 flipped to Frey: South Kingfield 8-4 went from 51% Knuth to 53% Frey. 5 flipped to Fateh: 6-3, 6-6, 6-9, 8-1 & 9-3.
Minneapolis Ward map
November 10, 2025 at 8:16 PM
dbrauer.net
Final-round Mpls mayor ballots in. Short 🧵:
- Frey won 7 wards, Fateh 6
- Frey won the 5 votingest wards (excluding exhausted ballots) … over *60%* in each. Fateh won next 5 but basically didn’t matter at that point.
- All wards redistricted since ‘21. Still, Ward 6 went from 64% Frey to 72% Fateh!
Ward Frey Fateh Frey % Winner Vote total 13 12,400 3,636 77% Frey 16,036 12 8,658 7,228 55% Frey 15,886 11 8,752 4,470 66% Frey 13,222 3 7,869 5,312 60% Frey 13,181 7 8,097 4,603 64% Frey 12,700 1 5,872 6,378 48% Fateh 12,250 8 5,128 6,384 45% Fateh 11,512 10 3,580 7,297 33% Fateh 10,877 9 2,623 5,231 33% Fateh 7,854 6 2,082 5,397 28% Fateh 7,479 2 2,312 4,321 35% Fateh 6,633 4 3,676 2,674 58% Frey 6,350 5 2,674 2,446 52% Frey 5,120 73,723 65,377 653% 0 139,100 Actual by Vote total Minneapolis Ward map
November 10, 2025 at 8:10 PM
dbrauer.net
Built a formula off 1st choices to predict how Mpls wards will ultimately vote for mayor. Too many unknowns, so wonk amusement only:
Frey: 3, 4, 5, 7, 11, 12, 13
Fateh: 1, 2, 6, 8, 9, 10
Closest: north side W5 (52% Frey)
Progressive ward bummer: W12 (55% Frey)
North Korea number: W13 (74% Frey)
Minneapolis Ward map
November 10, 2025 at 5:36 AM
dbrauer.net
I realize I brought this up, but for those just tuning in: we have a list of folks permitted in the voting area. Campaign managers are not on it (see below). Scott came on pretty strong & I had to react to that because he was right in the doorway where voters exited.
From the Minneapolis elections manual: Visitors, challengers, buffer zone, and campaign materials Authorized visitors There is a small list of authorized visitors apart from voters who can be in the polling place. • Someone assisting a voter Children accompanying their parents Someone vouching for a voter Observers with written authorization from the state, county, or municipal UPDATED! election office. Common visitors in this category may include trained volunteers checking the accessibility of polling places, U.S. Department of Justice observers, and international election officials here to learn how we run elections. Challengers Must be appointed in writing by a party or nonpartisan candidate. See below for more. • Media Can observe the voting process. See following section. • Exit pollsters Exit pollsters can be in the buffer zone or the building, but not in the voting room. See below for rules. Someone making a written complaint See page 121. Police officers (if requested by election judges to keep order)
November 9, 2025 at 3:30 PM
dbrauer.net
Zohran sign generator that says “LEFTIES for Minneapolis, despite it all”
November 9, 2025 at 4:00 AM
dbrauer.net
an album cover with a motor vehicle on it
Neko Case Middle Cyclone
November 9, 2025 at 1:18 AM
dbrauer.net
6/ Another falling Ward was 13, where CM Palmisano had no real rival. Precinct 13-5 fell a tentative 7%. (Again: we only have a sampling of 1/3 of precincts that weren’t redistricted.) 11-5 was off 8%; 6-4 was off 12.5%. Always important to think about how Council races can affect mayoral turnout!
November 7, 2025 at 2:51 PM
dbrauer.net
5/ So which areas fell? High turnout wards with no council contest (or a walkover) and low turnout wards with same. LaTrisha Vetaw’s ward 4 had the biggest drops (5-10% preliminarily, though it will probably be less when actual turnout is released). Precincts 1, 2, 5, 7, 8 all on this basket.
2025 Minneapolis Ward map
November 7, 2025 at 2:49 PM
dbrauer.net
4/ In hot-race Ward 7, Bryn Mawr (7-1) was up at least 12% as was 10-4 (northern South Uptown). W7 losing incumbent @katiecashman.bsky.social grew her 2023 7-1 margin, while winning incumbent @aishaforward10.com saw her 10-4 margin drop. Precincts 1-2 (Payne) & 12-9 (Chowdhury) also saw 10%+ gains.
2025 Minneapolis Ward map
November 7, 2025 at 2:46 PM
dbrauer.net
3/ Other big jumps were in @sorenwithward8.bsky.social’s Ward 8 … 8-1 was up at least 14% (Horn Towers, a lot of Somali-Minnesotans live there, Omar Fateh’s campaign likely helped, although 6-3, Cedar-Riverside, was only up at least 1.5%.) Soren won the precinct by 50 after losing it by 90 in 2023.
November 7, 2025 at 2:39 PM
dbrauer.net
2/ The tl;dr is, it’s good to have a hot Council race AND a good organizer Council Member. The 3 biggest surges were in @robin4mpls.bsky.social’s 2nd Ward: precincts 1/2/4 (Marcy/East Bank/Dinkytown) up 25%+. 2021 was a COVID year … but 300+ added votes went strongly to Robin. (Map below for ref.)
Minneapolis 2025 precinct map
November 7, 2025 at 2:34 PM
dbrauer.net
I don’t want to memory-hole Betsy Hodges’ 2013 win. It definitely wasn’t DSA but it was last successful center-left alliance. Folks should re-read this September Racket piece, where she describes the alliance but — I know this will chafe — the need to appeal to SW. racketmn.com/minneapolis-...
Hodges: The activist left didn't like R.T. They had not liked R.T., but they had not been able to beat him in three election cycles. There was a whole bunch of stuff that they wanted but they weren't getting. And they couldn't win citywide. And then here I come with a very progressive message, talking very openly about the issues they cared about, particularly racial equity, and they threw their lot in with mine. That was one of the key things that happened in 2013, and I would not have won without them. All credit goes to the organizing done by these activist left organizations that were willing to band together with each other, but also to support me. Hodges: The average call on the Hodges campaign in 2013 was nine minutes long. That is outrageously long. And we had tens of thousands of those conversations. That's what my campaign was, all based on this message [of belonging and racial equity]. And the activist left was a huge part of that. They brought volunteers, they brought resources, people doorknocked, they did all the stuff. And then we won. Hodges: I think the lesson that the old guard learned from 2013 was they needed to be more organized, they needed to have a stronger message-they generally choose the message of fear-and that they needed to pour a lot of money into the mayor's race in order to win. Those were the lessons they learned, and that has been their gameplan ever since, in 2017, in 2021, and, I assume, in 2025. I think the conclusion [the activist left] drew was, "We have cracked the code. We know how to win citywide. If we come together and we organize in this way, we're the ones who did it. Betsy Hodges won because of us." And it is true that they were necessary, but they were not sufficient. Because what I brought to the table was years and years and years of loving and building relationships with and leading white people in southwest Minneapolis in a way that meant they would follow me. In Minneapolis, if you do not have a message and if you do not have a relationship with the white voters of southwest Minneapolis, you just don't win citywide.
November 6, 2025 at 4:31 PM
dbrauer.net
I am never not gonna be mad about the Minneapolis public not connecting Frey to complete control of MPD operations for the past 8 years. www.startribune.com/election-day...
Quote from story: “A lot of voters who ranked Frey as their first choice mentioned that he was the most moderate candidate and their top priority was public safety. Some have been shaken by bubbling neighborhood crime, including car windows being smashed. They were choosing experience and stability.“
November 6, 2025 at 4:00 PM
dbrauer.net
2/ @alexschief.bsky.social works for Mpls Public Works on biking; he’s a great presence here. WITHIN A WEEK Alex had gotten workers to take rocks out of the curb-protected bumpout, fill it with asphalt and create a ramp from curb to street whole painting lines making it clearer where cars go.
Bumpout on south side of 29th Street (Cecil Newman Parkway) which once had rocks and curbs which dead-ended a bike lane & forced bikers into oncoming traffic (left of frame), now filled with asphalt and an asphalt ramp from curb to street level. New yellow paint more clearly shows bike lane and car traffic lane with painted zone between them.
November 6, 2025 at 3:35 PM
dbrauer.net
NEAT BIKE STORY. Great new bike lane on 1st between Franklin/Lake had big prob: 2-way 29th St connection to parallel protected Blaisdell lane blocked by a bumpout — forcing eastbound bikers turning north to 1st into oncoming traffic using 29th to get to Nicollet. So I DMd @alexschief.bsky.social …
Bikers (green arrow going east) forced by bumpout (red X) at 1st Avenue & 29th) into oncoming traffic (yellow arrow) turning onto 29th off 1st to get to Nicollet
November 6, 2025 at 3:28 PM
dbrauer.net
One difference between 2021 & 2025 was the collapse of the Minneapolis mayoral undercard - no-hopers who still put Frey over the top. For example, Republican Laverne Turner got 4,600 votes in 2021; as an independent in 2025, 795 votes. Largely a function of 4 major candidates in 2025 vs 3 in 2021
Chart showing 7 no-hoper candidates with over 1,000 votes. Chart showing zero no-hoper candidates with over 1,000 votes.
November 5, 2025 at 3:07 PM
dbrauer.net
”How many progressive Minneapolis Council Members won? 6, 7?”
Sam Cassell doing his big balls
November 5, 2025 at 2:00 PM
dbrauer.net
From the Chicago Tribune story: Skokie resident Morgan Krupinkski said two workers from an American company, The Scottish Plumber, were doing flood control work on his property in the 8300 block of Harding Avenue when federal agents' vehicles came down the residential street. The agents stopped and demanded documents from both workers, who were able to produce evidence they were U.S. citizens. "I'm angry," said Krupinski, who identified himself as a Republican and a conservative. "As someone who believes in the Constitution, for someone to be stopped by federal agents because of the color of their skin and their appearance, and to be asked for papers is completely unimaginable and completely unconstitutional, because where is probable cause? Where is reasonable search and seizure? They're working in a residential neighborhood. "And as someone who voted for this president, I didn't vote for this. I didn't vote for people to be harassed, I didn't vote for people to be brought out at gunpoint with machine guns, and to harass Americans."
November 1, 2025 at 2:14 PM
dbrauer.net
Will never not see
Kristin Wiig as the singing system with a huge forehead and doll hands
October 31, 2025 at 3:42 PM
dbrauer.net
🎶 It’s the most wonderfullllll time … of the year …. 🎶
Me in a t-shirt that says “October 31, 1991,” with the date inside a circle with a snowman in a ghost costume
October 31, 2025 at 2:10 PM
dbrauer.net
Kudos to Strib Opinion for publishing a letter from one of their biggest critics. I really do appreciate it., and the copy edit. www.startribune.com/readers-writ...
Former City Council Member Steve Cramer identifies himself in a recent letter as "a longtime participant in political and civic affairs," and I probably also qualify. Cramer characterizes Minneapolis mayoral candidates Jazz Hampton, DeWayne Davis and Omar Fateh as "misleading us and cheapening their own campaigns" by campaigning together, because the men have policy differences. But what Cramer sees darkly I see as collaborative; the three have acknowledged differences yet found common interests. Isn't that what we want in public officials, rather than a zero-sum candidate like Frey, who has no legislative or Hennepin County commissioner endorsements? Hampton, Davis or Fateh would make a better mayor than the incumbent, and their campaigns reflect that truth. Unlike Cramer, I’Il be ranking all three. David Brauer, Minneapolis
October 31, 2025 at 1:31 AM
dbrauer.net
Minnesota looks good on this map of Obamacare price hikes post-subsidy expiration … until you realize “good” means a $12,000-$17,999 annual increase, not a $28,000-$49,000. www.cbpp.org/research/hea...
U.S. Map showing Minnesota among a handful of states in the $12,000-$17,999 tier with 40+ states showing bigger increases up to $49,000.
October 30, 2025 at 4:43 PM
dbrauer.net
Meanwhile, the god-knower thinks RCV is the mark of the beast. Atheists are people too, Susan!
These are the qualities I'm looking for in a mayor, ranked. That he loves, obeys and is humble before God (whether he's Jewish, Christian or Muslim). That he loves people, and has courtesy and kindness, is truthful, trustworthy and honest, and has integrity. That he listens to people who disagree with him and adopts their good ideas for the city. That he finds joy in selflessly serving others. Being brilliant and having experience would only be icing on the cake. I worry that three candidates forming a voting bloc for ranked- choice voting will circumvent the will of the people, will be a form of cheating and will elect us a mayor the majority of us do not want. Just forming a voting bloc to give yourself an unfair advantage feels like dishonesty and a lack of integrity to me. In the past 10 years I've seen means to cheat an election put into practice in ways I could not possibly have imagined, so I value integrity and fair play a great deal. Let the will of the majority of the people prevail. Susan Frenzel, Minneapolis
October 30, 2025 at 12:37 PM
dbrauer.net
Haven't really seen flopsweat from Frey’s campaign, but deploying top surrogate Steve Cramer to attack @jazzformayor.bsky.social & @dewayneforminneapolis.com when Frey‘s worked to keep it a Fateh-only race indicates RCV strategy has rattled them. Cramer’s letter; my response (sent to Strib).
Davis and Hampton may present themselves as a breath of fresh air, but their hard-bitten political tactic running aligned with Omar Fateh says otherwise. They both disagree with Fateh on key issues like rent control, which only he supports, and the importance of rebuilding the sworn strength of our police department, which they espouse but Fateh, as a past police- defunder does not. Despite these crucial differences they campaign and fundraise together, and urge Minneapolis voters to rank him along with themselves. As a longtime participant in political and civic affairs, in my view those are the actions of candidates who will say and do anything to be elected. They are misleading us and cheapening their own campaigns. Most importantly, Davis and Hampton demonstrate a naiveté about what voters will swallow, a leadership quality most definitely not needed in the mayor's office. I will be ranking neither. Jacob Frey has my vote. Steve Cramer, Minneapolis The writer is a former Ward 11 Minneapolis City Council member. David Brauer’s submitted letter to the Strib: Strib letter Steve Cramer identifies himself as "a longtime participant in political and civic affairs," and I probably also qualify. Cramer characterizes Minneapolis mayoral candidates Jazz Hampton, Dewayne Davis, and Omar Fateh as "misleading us and cheapening their own campaigns" by campaigning together, because the men have policy differences. But what Cramer sees darkly I see as collaborative; the three have acknowledging differences yet found common interests. Isn't that what we want in public officials, rather than a zero-sum candidate like Jacob Frey, who has no legislative or Hennepin County Commissioner endorsements? Hampton, Davis or Fateh would make a better mayor than the incumbent, and their campaigns reflect that truth. Unlike Cramer, I'll be ranking all three.
October 30, 2025 at 12:18 PM
dbrauer.net
Having hosted the 3 mayoral challengers I don’t find their alliance awkward & have yet to talk to a non-Frey voter who can’t tell them apart. Even Facebook normies can, judging from their posts. It’s a shame the conventional media buys into Frey‘s RCV ooga-booga. www.startribune.com/omar-fateh-d...
From Eric Roper’s column: The campaign literature is emblematic of an awkward alliance forged among this trio, which has been drawing more attention in the countdown to Election Day, particularly from Frey and his allies. Linking with Fateh has helped Davis and Hampton spread the word about their campaigns. But in the process, they have avoided explicitly highlighting their disagreements with Fateh's leftist agenda. Whether the slate has an impact this November will depend heavily on how voters feel about Frey. I don't think the alliance is great for voters, who already have the tough task of differentiating the nuanced flavors of liberalism. But if it works, expect it to be replicated in the future.
October 29, 2025 at 12:26 PM