2/2 ...This suggests investor confidence was unsustainably high in October and remains elevated today, even with the recent selloff. Further choppiness seems likely for the balance of November as we wrote in last night's report and today demonstrates.

2/2 ...Opinions can and do vary about its investment merits, but #Bitcoin certainly adds productive diversification benefits to a portfolio of financial assets.

$BTC

2/2 ...That lack of relative momentum suggests we need a catalyst to peak in December. The last FOMC meeting of the year is such an event, and we expect a rate cut that will help US large caps end the year on a high note.

2/2 ...The VIX is not yet at our first “consider adding risk” level of 27.3, closing yesterday at 24.7, but any further selloff could push it there in a hurry.

2/2 ...In fact, over the last 16 years, Tech has had several +2 standard deviation rallies and always managed to show further absolute/relative gains over the following 100 days.

2/2 ...Ten-year Treasury yields started Q4 at 4.15% and are the same now. A month ago, Fed Funds Futures were putting 88% odds on a 25 basis point rate reduction at the Fed’s December 10th meeting. Now, the market-imputed probability is just 40%.

2/2 ...History shows corporate fundamentals do not create valuation turning points; expected changes in macro conditions do. This is an important observation just now, with the S&P sporting very high multiples and concerns growing about that fact.

2/2 ...The rest of Big Tech has only seen marginal (0.8 – 1.5 points) increases in S&P weightings. The AI trade is not the only factor creating an increasing Big Tech focused S&P 500.