DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe
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1/2 S&P 500 sector price return correlations to the index remain lower than their long run average and were extremely (+2 standard deviations) below the mean last month...
November 20, 2025 at 8:10 PM
1/2 S&P 500 sector price return correlations to the index remain lower than their long run average and were extremely (+2 standard deviations) below the mean last month...
1/2 #Bitcoin continues to exhibit generally low trailing 30-day price return correlations to the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 & gold. These can occasionally rise to 0.6 – 0.7 for the 2 stock market indices, but even those are r-squares of just 36 – 49%...
November 20, 2025 at 5:58 PM
1/2 #Bitcoin continues to exhibit generally low trailing 30-day price return correlations to the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 & gold. These can occasionally rise to 0.6 – 0.7 for the 2 stock market indices, but even those are r-squares of just 36 – 49%...
1/2 Historic seasonal trends show the odds of the S&P 500 topping out in Dec rather than Oct/Nov are 75% vs 25%. While that’s bullish, the S&P is lagging years when it peaks in Q4 (+12.1% YTD, historically +19 - 22%)...
November 20, 2025 at 5:20 PM
1/2 Historic seasonal trends show the odds of the S&P 500 topping out in Dec rather than Oct/Nov are 75% vs 25%. While that’s bullish, the S&P is lagging years when it peaks in Q4 (+12.1% YTD, historically +19 - 22%)...
Buying the S&P 500 when the VIX closes between 27.3 & 50.8 (the range from +1 to 4 standard deviations above the mean) has a good track record of delivering solid gains over the following month, 3 months, 6 months, and year. And win rates for these timeframes are all over 70%.
November 19, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Buying the S&P 500 when the VIX closes between 27.3 & 50.8 (the range from +1 to 4 standard deviations above the mean) has a good track record of delivering solid gains over the following month, 3 months, 6 months, and year. And win rates for these timeframes are all over 70%.
1/2 US equities are getting choppy, which means it is time to review our VIX Playbook. Wall Street’s famous “Fear Gauge” is a reliable signal of productive entry points whenever markets become exceptionally volatile...
November 19, 2025 at 6:01 PM
1/2 US equities are getting choppy, which means it is time to review our VIX Playbook. Wall Street’s famous “Fear Gauge” is a reliable signal of productive entry points whenever markets become exceptionally volatile...
1/2 US large cap Tech recently experienced a +2 standard deviation rally over the prior 100 days on both an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500. While it is now seeing some weakness, price history back to 2010 clearly shows the group can continue to work from here...
November 19, 2025 at 5:13 PM
1/2 US large cap Tech recently experienced a +2 standard deviation rally over the prior 100 days on both an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500. While it is now seeing some weakness, price history back to 2010 clearly shows the group can continue to work from here...
The Nasdaq Comp continues to eerily track its mid-1990s bull run, with the index now rolling over just like the comparable period in late 1997.
November 18, 2025 at 8:18 PM
The Nasdaq Comp continues to eerily track its mid-1990s bull run, with the index now rolling over just like the comparable period in late 1997.
Despite the next Fed meeting being just 23 days away, Futures continue to put coin-flip odds on a 25 basis point rate cut. They discount only 3-4 cuts over the next 13 months, a bullish setup for stocks.
November 18, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Despite the next Fed meeting being just 23 days away, Futures continue to put coin-flip odds on a 25 basis point rate cut. They discount only 3-4 cuts over the next 13 months, a bullish setup for stocks.
Q3 2025 financial reporting season for the S&P 500 was exceptionally good on both the top and bottom line, even with this year’s manifold uncertainties.
November 18, 2025 at 6:49 PM
Q3 2025 financial reporting season for the S&P 500 was exceptionally good on both the top and bottom line, even with this year’s manifold uncertainties.
Q3 2025 saw the S&P 500 hit record net profit margins, and not just because of Tech. This implies that structural returns on capital are also high, and that supports current lofty US large cap valuations.
November 18, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Q3 2025 saw the S&P 500 hit record net profit margins, and not just because of Tech. This implies that structural returns on capital are also high, and that supports current lofty US large cap valuations.
The S&P 500 went from narrowly beating rest of world (ROW) stocks in October (+2.3 vs +2.1%) to noticeably underperforming in the first 2 weeks of November (-1.6 vs +0.3%). Currency was not a driver in this shift and, for Q4 to date, the S&P is now lagging ROW (+0.7 vs +2.4%).
November 17, 2025 at 10:13 PM
The S&P 500 went from narrowly beating rest of world (ROW) stocks in October (+2.3 vs +2.1%) to noticeably underperforming in the first 2 weeks of November (-1.6 vs +0.3%). Currency was not a driver in this shift and, for Q4 to date, the S&P is now lagging ROW (+0.7 vs +2.4%).
While TSLA is flat on the year (+0.1 pct), the rest of Big Tech has added a total of 7.5 points to the S&P 500, or 51% of its YTD gain (through Friday).
November 17, 2025 at 8:31 PM
While TSLA is flat on the year (+0.1 pct), the rest of Big Tech has added a total of 7.5 points to the S&P 500, or 51% of its YTD gain (through Friday).
Only 3 US Big Tech names have outperformed the S&P 500 YTD (GOOG: +45.4%, NVDA: +41.6%, MSFT: +21.0%). The have collectively added +6.4 points of S&P performance, or 44% of the total.
November 17, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Only 3 US Big Tech names have outperformed the S&P 500 YTD (GOOG: +45.4%, NVDA: +41.6%, MSFT: +21.0%). The have collectively added +6.4 points of S&P performance, or 44% of the total.
Large cap Tech has gone from being the biggest winner in October (+6.7%) to the biggest loser November to date (-4.2%), with NVDA leading the way both higher (+8.5% in October) and lower (-6.1% November TD).
November 17, 2025 at 6:14 PM
Large cap Tech has gone from being the biggest winner in October (+6.7%) to the biggest loser November to date (-4.2%), with NVDA leading the way both higher (+8.5% in October) and lower (-6.1% November TD).
1/2 While Treasury yields are virtually unchanged so far in Q4, the odds of an FOMC rate cut in December have tightened up considerably. Two-year Treasury yields started the quarter at 3.60% and are 3.61% now, just 1 basis point higher than on September 30th...
November 17, 2025 at 5:25 PM
1/2 While Treasury yields are virtually unchanged so far in Q4, the odds of an FOMC rate cut in December have tightened up considerably. Two-year Treasury yields started the quarter at 3.60% and are 3.61% now, just 1 basis point higher than on September 30th...
DataTrek's Nick Colas: “Dividend-focused investing’s... underweight to tech and overweight to fundamentally challenged industries like consumer staples threatens to make it a structural underperformer...”
@barrons.com www.barrons.com/articles/bes...
@barrons.com www.barrons.com/articles/bes...
Here’s Where to Find the Best Dividend Stocks Now
Dividends are on the ropes—but investors might not want to give up just yet.
www.barrons.com
November 16, 2025 at 8:13 PM
DataTrek's Nick Colas: “Dividend-focused investing’s... underweight to tech and overweight to fundamentally challenged industries like consumer staples threatens to make it a structural underperformer...”
@barrons.com www.barrons.com/articles/bes...
@barrons.com www.barrons.com/articles/bes...
1/2 Over the last 25 years, the S&P 500 has traded in a band of 10x – 23x forward earnings. Valuations have ebbed and flowed with investor confidence in the global financial system, economic/earnings growth, and human ingenuity...
November 5, 2025 at 8:20 PM
1/2 Over the last 25 years, the S&P 500 has traded in a band of 10x – 23x forward earnings. Valuations have ebbed and flowed with investor confidence in the global financial system, economic/earnings growth, and human ingenuity...
1/2 US Big Tech stocks have gone from being 20.0% of the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 to 35.9% today. Almost half of that increase (47%) is due to NVDA, and about a quarter (24%) comes from GOOG & AMZN...
November 5, 2025 at 8:12 PM
1/2 US Big Tech stocks have gone from being 20.0% of the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 to 35.9% today. Almost half of that increase (47%) is due to NVDA, and about a quarter (24%) comes from GOOG & AMZN...
As much as corporate headcount reductions are in the news of late, it is important to remember that the US labor market has seen an average of 1.6 million layoffs every month since 2022. Yes, every single month.
November 5, 2025 at 7:03 PM
As much as corporate headcount reductions are in the news of late, it is important to remember that the US labor market has seen an average of 1.6 million layoffs every month since 2022. Yes, every single month.
Wall Street analysts are increasing their 2026 earnings growth expectations for the S&P 500. These positive revisions are not just related to Tech, with 5 other groups also seeing stronger expected growth rates. This is unusual (analysts usually cut forward estimates over time) and bullish.
November 5, 2025 at 5:25 PM
Wall Street analysts are increasing their 2026 earnings growth expectations for the S&P 500. These positive revisions are not just related to Tech, with 5 other groups also seeing stronger expected growth rates. This is unusual (analysts usually cut forward estimates over time) and bullish.
Q3 financial reporting season continues to impress, even with the occasional company-specific stumble. S&P 500 earnings growth is running +10%, with further upside revisions likely.
November 4, 2025 at 10:55 PM
Q3 financial reporting season continues to impress, even with the occasional company-specific stumble. S&P 500 earnings growth is running +10%, with further upside revisions likely.
The Min Vol strategy is badly lagging its goal of capturing 70 – 80 pct of any upside gains in US stocks, thus far only generating 6 – 30 pct of the S&P’s 16.3 pct YTD price return.
November 3, 2025 at 9:18 PM
The Min Vol strategy is badly lagging its goal of capturing 70 – 80 pct of any upside gains in US stocks, thus far only generating 6 – 30 pct of the S&P’s 16.3 pct YTD price return.
Momentum has gone from dramatically outperforming the S&P 500 in Q1 (-2.3% vs. -4.6%) and Q2 (+18.9% vs. +8.1%) to underperforming in Q3 (+6.7% vs. +7.8%) and October (-0.8% vs. +2.3%).
November 3, 2025 at 9:15 PM
Momentum has gone from dramatically outperforming the S&P 500 in Q1 (-2.3% vs. -4.6%) and Q2 (+18.9% vs. +8.1%) to underperforming in Q3 (+6.7% vs. +7.8%) and October (-0.8% vs. +2.3%).
Growth stocks have been the place to be YTD in both large caps (+22.9% vs. +9.4%) and small caps (+14.9% vs. +7.9%).
November 3, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Growth stocks have been the place to be YTD in both large caps (+22.9% vs. +9.4%) and small caps (+14.9% vs. +7.9%).
After notable rallies in Q1 (+2 – +3%) and Q2 (+6 – 7%), both developed and emerging market currencies lost value versus the dollar in Q3 (-1%) and in October (-1 – -2%).
November 3, 2025 at 7:50 PM
After notable rallies in Q1 (+2 – +3%) and Q2 (+6 – 7%), both developed and emerging market currencies lost value versus the dollar in Q3 (-1%) and in October (-1 – -2%).