DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe
@datatrekresearch.bsky.social
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The Nasdaq Comp continues to eerily track its mid-1990s bull run, with the index now rolling over just like the comparable period in late 1997.
November 18, 2025 at 8:18 PM
The Nasdaq Comp continues to eerily track its mid-1990s bull run, with the index now rolling over just like the comparable period in late 1997.
US high yield corporate bond spreads reflect continued confidence in the US economy.
October 20, 2025 at 3:01 PM
US high yield corporate bond spreads reflect continued confidence in the US economy.
Thankfully, the US Energy Information Administration is still hard at work. The bad news is that their weekly US gas demand data shows declines of -1.9/-3.2 pct over the last 1/4 weeks versus a year ago. The US consumer is still quite cautious, deferring discretionary spending.
October 17, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Thankfully, the US Energy Information Administration is still hard at work. The bad news is that their weekly US gas demand data shows declines of -1.9/-3.2 pct over the last 1/4 weeks versus a year ago. The US consumer is still quite cautious, deferring discretionary spending.
2/2 ...This data shows why Chair Powell is so concerned about the current “low hire, low fire” labor market environment. Americans are searching for jobs at recessionary levels, so a pickup in layoffs would surely increase unemployment.
October 17, 2025 at 4:46 PM
2/2 ...This data shows why Chair Powell is so concerned about the current “low hire, low fire” labor market environment. Americans are searching for jobs at recessionary levels, so a pickup in layoffs would surely increase unemployment.
1/2 US Google search volumes for “find job” and “new job” are at new 20-year highs. Queries for “full/part time job” are also significantly higher than at any point over the last 2 decades...
October 17, 2025 at 4:46 PM
1/2 US Google search volumes for “find job” and “new job” are at new 20-year highs. Queries for “full/part time job” are also significantly higher than at any point over the last 2 decades...
While it may feel more conservative to cast the broader net of the S&P 1500, the difference to the S&P 500 is negligible in most ways that matter. This is largely a function of a highly concentrated US equity market, something we don’t see changing in the coming years.
October 15, 2025 at 7:30 PM
While it may feel more conservative to cast the broader net of the S&P 1500, the difference to the S&P 500 is negligible in most ways that matter. This is largely a function of a highly concentrated US equity market, something we don’t see changing in the coming years.
Small cap Tech has been leadership over the last 100 days, beating the S&P 600 by 15.8 points (an almost 3 standard deviation move). While that’s uncommon, it comes after a long period of underperformance.
September 16, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Small cap Tech has been leadership over the last 100 days, beating the S&P 600 by 15.8 points (an almost 3 standard deviation move). While that’s uncommon, it comes after a long period of underperformance.
US large cap Health Care has just lagged the S&P 500 by more than 4 standard deviations over 100 days, a level of underperformance we’ve never seen in a major sector. It’s not just UNH; several other big names are also down on the year.
August 20, 2025 at 2:25 PM
US large cap Health Care has just lagged the S&P 500 by more than 4 standard deviations over 100 days, a level of underperformance we’ve never seen in a major sector. It’s not just UNH; several other big names are also down on the year.
Last weekend DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe attended Skydive the Falls' annual Falls Fest boogie, where she got to do some helicopter jumps over Niagara Falls. Here are some pictures!
July 31, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Last weekend DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe attended Skydive the Falls' annual Falls Fest boogie, where she got to do some helicopter jumps over Niagara Falls. Here are some pictures!
Powell said the US unemployment rate is the single most important datapoint to watch just now. At 4.1%, it is extremely low relative to post-World War II history.
July 31, 2025 at 6:52 PM
Powell said the US unemployment rate is the single most important datapoint to watch just now. At 4.1%, it is extremely low relative to post-World War II history.
US large cap Tech now sports a 30x multiple on forward earnings, 37% higher than its 10-year average. It is not alone, however; every other S&P sector (ex-Health Care) has also seen multiple expansion.
July 23, 2025 at 5:57 PM
US large cap Tech now sports a 30x multiple on forward earnings, 37% higher than its 10-year average. It is not alone, however; every other S&P sector (ex-Health Care) has also seen multiple expansion.
The Nasdaq 100 has its own version of the VIX index, commonly known as the VXN. It closed yesterday at 18.7, well below its long run average of 24.7. Far from being a sign of investor “complacency”, history shows a low VXN is consistent with a durable Tech stock bull market.
July 22, 2025 at 4:54 PM
The Nasdaq 100 has its own version of the VIX index, commonly known as the VXN. It closed yesterday at 18.7, well below its long run average of 24.7. Far from being a sign of investor “complacency”, history shows a low VXN is consistent with a durable Tech stock bull market.
1/2 The valuation halo around Gen AI is about to become much more important to US Big Tech valuations now that their aggregate earnings growth is so much slower than the recent past...
July 21, 2025 at 6:03 PM
1/2 The valuation halo around Gen AI is about to become much more important to US Big Tech valuations now that their aggregate earnings growth is so much slower than the recent past...
Since 2000, the average gold/silver price ratio has been 69x. Panics (2020 Pandemic, 2025 trade shock) took the ratio to +100x. It is 88x now. There is a relative value trade in favor of silver here if geopolitical tensions abate and economic confidence increases.
July 17, 2025 at 7:21 PM
Since 2000, the average gold/silver price ratio has been 69x. Panics (2020 Pandemic, 2025 trade shock) took the ratio to +100x. It is 88x now. There is a relative value trade in favor of silver here if geopolitical tensions abate and economic confidence increases.
The world’s largest virtual currency has slowly become less volatile over the last decade and its recent volatility is extremely low. This favors incremental adoption but also suggests future returns will be lower than historical norms.
July 17, 2025 at 5:17 PM
The world’s largest virtual currency has slowly become less volatile over the last decade and its recent volatility is extremely low. This favors incremental adoption but also suggests future returns will be lower than historical norms.
Two weeks ago, DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe and some other skydivers received special permission to jump over Mont Saint-Michel in Normandy, France. Dream come true!
July 15, 2025 at 10:27 PM
Two weeks ago, DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe and some other skydivers received special permission to jump over Mont Saint-Michel in Normandy, France. Dream come true!
Short-term (30-day) S&P 500 sector correlations to the index are solidly back in bull market territory but not yet indicative of a near-term top for US large caps.
July 15, 2025 at 10:19 PM
Short-term (30-day) S&P 500 sector correlations to the index are solidly back in bull market territory but not yet indicative of a near-term top for US large caps.
Most market cap weighted S&P 500 sectors have beaten their equal weight counterparts YTD, so it’s not just Tech that’s enabled the cap weighted S&P to outperform this year (+6.6 vs +5.4% YTD through yesterday's close).
July 15, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Most market cap weighted S&P 500 sectors have beaten their equal weight counterparts YTD, so it’s not just Tech that’s enabled the cap weighted S&P to outperform this year (+6.6 vs +5.4% YTD through yesterday's close).
@statestreet.bsky.social's Institutional Investor Risk Appetite Index closed June at near-record levels & saw +5-yr highs during the month. “Big Money” is very bullish on risk assets, which one can read as good/bad for stocks. Over the short term, we think their confidence is a positive.
July 14, 2025 at 8:39 PM
@statestreet.bsky.social's Institutional Investor Risk Appetite Index closed June at near-record levels & saw +5-yr highs during the month. “Big Money” is very bullish on risk assets, which one can read as good/bad for stocks. Over the short term, we think their confidence is a positive.
The Nasdaq Comp continues to eerily track its mid-1990s bull run. The Comp has doubled since its low in Dec 2022, close to the index’s 91% gain over the same period from the start of 1995.
July 10, 2025 at 10:11 PM
The Nasdaq Comp continues to eerily track its mid-1990s bull run. The Comp has doubled since its low in Dec 2022, close to the index’s 91% gain over the same period from the start of 1995.
The Street’s most/least favored stocks have, on average, both outperformed this year.
June 30, 2025 at 7:31 PM
The Street’s most/least favored stocks have, on average, both outperformed this year.
Yesterday’s Retail Sales report shows that Americans are shifting discretionary spending to smaller-ticket experiences like dining out and going to bars.
June 18, 2025 at 6:59 PM
Yesterday’s Retail Sales report shows that Americans are shifting discretionary spending to smaller-ticket experiences like dining out and going to bars.
Market-based measures of 10-year forward inflation expectations stand at 2.3 percent and express confidence in the Fed’s “go slow” approach to rate cuts.
June 18, 2025 at 5:54 PM
Market-based measures of 10-year forward inflation expectations stand at 2.3 percent and express confidence in the Fed’s “go slow” approach to rate cuts.
US credit card delinquencies have started to decline from their recent highs (3.1 vs. 3.2 pct) and are at similar levels to past troughs (3.3 pct in the 1990s, 3.5 pct in early 2000s).
June 11, 2025 at 5:57 PM
US credit card delinquencies have started to decline from their recent highs (3.1 vs. 3.2 pct) and are at similar levels to past troughs (3.3 pct in the 1990s, 3.5 pct in early 2000s).
State Street’s Institutional Investor Risk Appetite index shows that the “Big Money” is only now embracing the recent rally, which suggests a further “melt up” move higher into quarter end.
June 9, 2025 at 5:35 PM
State Street’s Institutional Investor Risk Appetite index shows that the “Big Money” is only now embracing the recent rally, which suggests a further “melt up” move higher into quarter end.