Indeed, there was already Labour => Plaid switching, there was not as you say much more Labour lemon to squeeze from the point the poll was in the field. I do buy your argument that a poll showing a Reform victory was highly plausible dragged (otherwise) non voters out to the polls to stop that…

I don’t this poll is evidence to that regard, more like - when you’ve got this type of churn going on 2 weeks out, and *then* the constituency gets told LAB/CON are out and only a Plaid vote stops Reform, there will be movement…

Hi Will, are you saying you are sure there was no movement in the last 3 weeks of the campaign? No further tactical switching, no effect of GOTV from the parties?

Refs: Our MP Left Right Project with @royalholloway.bsky.social @vlazarov.bsky.social and UK in a Changing Europe

mpsleftright.co.uk

Full data tables from this week’s Survation & @labourlist.bsky.social Labour Members polling on the Deputy Leadership: survation.com/archive/2025...

Bridget Phillipson had the strongest net positive rating among members of any MP we tested: +35% (good candidate – bad candidate). By contrast, Powell was more divisive at just +1%. Running as the “anti-Starmer” candidate now could be a tough sell given the nature of the role.

However, if Phillipson becomes Labour’s Deputy Leader, most members will be reasonably happy. Survation found:

>80% of member say it’s important the DL is from outside London
>73% say it’s important the candidate is female
>A majority say being outside government is unimportant

Emily Thornberry might have been a unifying candidate across the "Labour family". For example, 46% of Labour members who backed Rebecca Long-Bailey in 2020 told Survation she’d be a good Deputy Leader candidate - compared to just 28% for Phillipson and 25% for Powell.

Both candidates are perceived as being to the right of the median Labour MP. Here’s Bridget Phillipson:

I think if a concerned member of the public spotted these on a person, and called it in, the police would have a lot of explaining to do to not be taking it seriously. A jury would not have convicted here, given the law (there was a good reason to possess), but the police operated within guidance.

In this context “fastest growth in the G7” claims look particularly silly - when you have 7 country’s statistics agencies with different methods being compared to each other on a *quarterly* basis.

Of course, who doesn’t? Gauche to mention it no?

Completed it in 2014 maate!

A successful pivot toward a populist 'pro-worker' narrative -particularly by siding with striking workers in key industrial disputes - could pose a real threat to Labour. Such a move would serve as a classic wedge strategy, highlighting Labour's cautious stance on union action.