I don’t this poll is evidence to that regard, more like - when you’ve got this type of churn going on 2 weeks out, and *then* the constituency gets told LAB/CON are out and only a Plaid vote stops Reform, there will be movement…

Note of caution on More in Common’s MRP showing a chunky Reform overall majority. It is based on a *10pt* REF lead over LAB. The pollster’s regular VI is just a 3 pt lead. MRP is not very good at getting national shares correct and needs assistance - which does not appear to have happened here.

Bridget Phillipson had the strongest net positive rating among members of any MP we tested: +35% (good candidate – bad candidate). By contrast, Powell was more divisive at just +1%. Running as the “anti-Starmer” candidate now could be a tough sell given the nature of the role.

Emily Thornberry might have been a unifying candidate across the "Labour family". For example, 46% of Labour members who backed Rebecca Long-Bailey in 2020 told Survation she’d be a good Deputy Leader candidate - compared to just 28% for Phillipson and 25% for Powell.

Both candidates are perceived as being to the right of the median Labour MP. Here’s Bridget Phillipson:

Labour's Next Deputy Leader?
In terms of an ideological battle, there’s likely little perceived difference between Lucy Powell and Bridget Phillipson. In our councillor perceptions study of MPs on economic issues (mpsleftright.co.uk), both scored near-identical results.

I think if a concerned member of the public spotted these on a person, and called it in, the police would have a lot of explaining to do to not be taking it seriously. A jury would not have convicted here, given the law (there was a good reason to possess), but the police operated within guidance.

Signs you are getting old #342. The homemade Father’s Day cards reach political satire level:

Completed it in 2014 maate!

Where are Reform’s new voters coming from in Scotland?

More than 1 in 5 Labour voters from the 2024 general election are now intending on switching to Reform, with 1 in 4 Tory voters intending on making the switch also. New analysis from Survation's Fred Power: www.survation.com/new-survatio...

In by-elections, losing parties often find some solace in blaming low turnout - not so in Runcorn & Helsby.

While turnout yesterday was lower than at the 2024 general election in that seat - it was still higher than in 19 other constituencies at GE 2024:

Consensus seat forecast for net LE seat gains (Baxter, Hayward, Freedman, Fisher, Walker, Booth).

I don't know yet if we will be told this would be a "very bad night for Labour" 😉

@lordashcroft.bsky.social's polling in Runcorn & Helsby shows Labour have a turnout problem they will need to fix if there's any chance of squeaking a victory. Just 55% of LAB 2024 GE voters say they will definitely vote, vs 78% of REF voters and 70% of CON:
lordashcroftpolls.com/2025/03/runc...

Trump slapping tariffs on Canada like they’re a global supervillain while giving Russia a free pass. Exactly what did Trudeau do to deserve this?

Another day of US markets getting roiled again by Trump's tariff talk - US equities are now lower than inauguration day for the first time. Europe & Chi-na doing very well:

Global market performance since Trump's Second Inauguration (Jan 20, 2025 - Feb 27, 2025)

Initial market reaction to the German exit polls of either a CDU/CSU + SPD coalition or involvement of the FDP (if they make the 5% cut) is relief.
The DAX index is trading +0.53% the Euro +0.33%

Roses are red
Violets are blue
This may look exciting
But most likely just skew

Yields on 10-year US Treasuries & UK gilts reflect borrowing costs for those governments. Here's how UK and US government 10 yr borrowing costs have trended over the past 3 months. Without checking - which one is the world's strongest economy and which is the country apparently in a crisis?