Damian Lyons Lowe
@damiansurvation.bsky.social
Founder & Chief Exec at Survation. Father of 4. Northerner, Londoner. I lead our research offering. http://survation.com/our-services/ damian.lyonslowe@survation.com
Reposted by Damian Lyons Lowe
Survation October Newsletter: Long Nights, Illuminating Insights
This month, we've covered Welsh politics, the Labour deputy leadership election, and much more.
Read in full: shorturl.at/D7Bav
Subscribe to our mailing list here: eepurl.com/mOK8P
🧵 1/6
This month, we've covered Welsh politics, the Labour deputy leadership election, and much more.
Read in full: shorturl.at/D7Bav
Subscribe to our mailing list here: eepurl.com/mOK8P
🧵 1/6
October 31, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Survation October Newsletter: Long Nights, Illuminating Insights
This month, we've covered Welsh politics, the Labour deputy leadership election, and much more.
Read in full: shorturl.at/D7Bav
Subscribe to our mailing list here: eepurl.com/mOK8P
🧵 1/6
This month, we've covered Welsh politics, the Labour deputy leadership election, and much more.
Read in full: shorturl.at/D7Bav
Subscribe to our mailing list here: eepurl.com/mOK8P
🧵 1/6
Note of caution on More in Common’s MRP showing a chunky Reform overall majority. It is based on a *10pt* REF lead over LAB. The pollster’s regular VI is just a 3 pt lead. MRP is not very good at getting national shares correct and needs assistance - which does not appear to have happened here.
September 27, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Note of caution on More in Common’s MRP showing a chunky Reform overall majority. It is based on a *10pt* REF lead over LAB. The pollster’s regular VI is just a 3 pt lead. MRP is not very good at getting national shares correct and needs assistance - which does not appear to have happened here.
Ballotbox.scot with their usual excellent coverage of our Scotland polling this week:
ballotbox.scot/survation-se...
ballotbox.scot/survation-se...
Ballot Box Scotland
Democracy in Detail
Ballotbox.scot
September 27, 2025 at 9:43 AM
Ballotbox.scot with their usual excellent coverage of our Scotland polling this week:
ballotbox.scot/survation-se...
ballotbox.scot/survation-se...
Some thoughts on our new poll of Labour members on behalf of @labourlist.bsky.social:
Disappointed By Labour's Direction, Labour Members Turn To Lucy Powell in the Deputy Leader Race:
mailchi.mp/survation/ne...
Disappointed By Labour's Direction, Labour Members Turn To Lucy Powell in the Deputy Leader Race:
mailchi.mp/survation/ne...
NEW: Disappointed By Labour's Direction, Labour Members Turn To Lucy Powell in the Deputy Leader Race:
mailchi.mp
September 15, 2025 at 9:06 PM
Some thoughts on our new poll of Labour members on behalf of @labourlist.bsky.social:
Disappointed By Labour's Direction, Labour Members Turn To Lucy Powell in the Deputy Leader Race:
mailchi.mp/survation/ne...
Disappointed By Labour's Direction, Labour Members Turn To Lucy Powell in the Deputy Leader Race:
mailchi.mp/survation/ne...
Labour's Next Deputy Leader?
In terms of an ideological battle, there’s likely little perceived difference between Lucy Powell and Bridget Phillipson. In our councillor perceptions study of MPs on economic issues (mpsleftright.co.uk), both scored near-identical results.
In terms of an ideological battle, there’s likely little perceived difference between Lucy Powell and Bridget Phillipson. In our councillor perceptions study of MPs on economic issues (mpsleftright.co.uk), both scored near-identical results.
September 11, 2025 at 12:47 PM
Labour's Next Deputy Leader?
In terms of an ideological battle, there’s likely little perceived difference between Lucy Powell and Bridget Phillipson. In our councillor perceptions study of MPs on economic issues (mpsleftright.co.uk), both scored near-identical results.
In terms of an ideological battle, there’s likely little perceived difference between Lucy Powell and Bridget Phillipson. In our councillor perceptions study of MPs on economic issues (mpsleftright.co.uk), both scored near-identical results.
Reposted by Damian Lyons Lowe
NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
RFM 30 (+3)
LAB 24 (-)
CON 19 (-1)
LD 11 (-2)
GRN 8 (-)
OTH 6 (-2)
F/w 28th August- 2nd September 2025. Changes vs 2nd June.
🧵1/5
RFM 30 (+3)
LAB 24 (-)
CON 19 (-1)
LD 11 (-2)
GRN 8 (-)
OTH 6 (-2)
F/w 28th August- 2nd September 2025. Changes vs 2nd June.
🧵1/5
September 5, 2025 at 3:34 PM
NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
RFM 30 (+3)
LAB 24 (-)
CON 19 (-1)
LD 11 (-2)
GRN 8 (-)
OTH 6 (-2)
F/w 28th August- 2nd September 2025. Changes vs 2nd June.
🧵1/5
RFM 30 (+3)
LAB 24 (-)
CON 19 (-1)
LD 11 (-2)
GRN 8 (-)
OTH 6 (-2)
F/w 28th August- 2nd September 2025. Changes vs 2nd June.
🧵1/5
Reposted by Damian Lyons Lowe
Could Labour’s hope for the future be gaining tactical votes from Green & LibDem supporters? 👀
Polling guru @damiansurvation.bsky.social breaks down this strategic dilemma in the latest episode of The Political Marketing Podcast.
politicaladvertising.co.uk/2025/07/19/p...
Polling guru @damiansurvation.bsky.social breaks down this strategic dilemma in the latest episode of The Political Marketing Podcast.
politicaladvertising.co.uk/2025/07/19/p...
Polling & Political Strategy: An Inside Look At What Parties Really Know About Voters
In the most recent episode of The Political Marketing Podcast I had the privilege of sitting down with Damian Lyons Lowe, CEO of Survation, one of the UK’s most influential market research firms.&n…
politicaladvertising.co.uk
July 19, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Could Labour’s hope for the future be gaining tactical votes from Green & LibDem supporters? 👀
Polling guru @damiansurvation.bsky.social breaks down this strategic dilemma in the latest episode of The Political Marketing Podcast.
politicaladvertising.co.uk/2025/07/19/p...
Polling guru @damiansurvation.bsky.social breaks down this strategic dilemma in the latest episode of The Political Marketing Podcast.
politicaladvertising.co.uk/2025/07/19/p...
Great post about the limitations of ONS data and why being governed by statistical noise is the current state of affairs!
My latest, on how the government is in a brilliant position to make big decisions, if only it can stop thinking small.
Welfare and the unexpected tyranny of government statistics
How the government’s obsession with tiny numbers has crippled decision making (and undermined the ONS).
martinrobbins.substack.com
July 11, 2025 at 6:54 AM
Great post about the limitations of ONS data and why being governed by statistical noise is the current state of affairs!
Signs you are getting old #342. The homemade Father’s Day cards reach political satire level:
June 15, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Signs you are getting old #342. The homemade Father’s Day cards reach political satire level:
Where are Reform’s new voters coming from in Scotland?
More than 1 in 5 Labour voters from the 2024 general election are now intending on switching to Reform, with 1 in 4 Tory voters intending on making the switch also. New analysis from Survation's Fred Power: www.survation.com/new-survatio...
More than 1 in 5 Labour voters from the 2024 general election are now intending on switching to Reform, with 1 in 4 Tory voters intending on making the switch also. New analysis from Survation's Fred Power: www.survation.com/new-survatio...
May 9, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Where are Reform’s new voters coming from in Scotland?
More than 1 in 5 Labour voters from the 2024 general election are now intending on switching to Reform, with 1 in 4 Tory voters intending on making the switch also. New analysis from Survation's Fred Power: www.survation.com/new-survatio...
More than 1 in 5 Labour voters from the 2024 general election are now intending on switching to Reform, with 1 in 4 Tory voters intending on making the switch also. New analysis from Survation's Fred Power: www.survation.com/new-survatio...
Ahead of the locals, I shared some thoughts with @alexrogerssky in that Reform could pose a real threat to Labour in "post-industrial" areas potentially receptive to a message of "protectionism, industrial revival, and national self-sufficiency".
news.sky.com/story/how-ni...
news.sky.com/story/how-ni...
How Nigel Farage is flirting with Labour's most loyal voters - and the battle to stop him
Nigel Farage's courting of union members has alarmed the movement's leaders - and now they are plotting how to stop the Reform UK leader in his tracks.
news.sky.com
May 6, 2025 at 8:49 AM
Ahead of the locals, I shared some thoughts with @alexrogerssky in that Reform could pose a real threat to Labour in "post-industrial" areas potentially receptive to a message of "protectionism, industrial revival, and national self-sufficiency".
news.sky.com/story/how-ni...
news.sky.com/story/how-ni...
In by-elections, losing parties often find some solace in blaming low turnout - not so in Runcorn & Helsby.
While turnout yesterday was lower than at the 2024 general election in that seat - it was still higher than in 19 other constituencies at GE 2024:
While turnout yesterday was lower than at the 2024 general election in that seat - it was still higher than in 19 other constituencies at GE 2024:
May 2, 2025 at 11:14 AM
In by-elections, losing parties often find some solace in blaming low turnout - not so in Runcorn & Helsby.
While turnout yesterday was lower than at the 2024 general election in that seat - it was still higher than in 19 other constituencies at GE 2024:
While turnout yesterday was lower than at the 2024 general election in that seat - it was still higher than in 19 other constituencies at GE 2024:
Consensus seat forecast for net LE seat gains (Baxter, Hayward, Freedman, Fisher, Walker, Booth).
I don't know yet if we will be told this would be a "very bad night for Labour" 😉
I don't know yet if we will be told this would be a "very bad night for Labour" 😉
May 1, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Consensus seat forecast for net LE seat gains (Baxter, Hayward, Freedman, Fisher, Walker, Booth).
I don't know yet if we will be told this would be a "very bad night for Labour" 😉
I don't know yet if we will be told this would be a "very bad night for Labour" 😉
Reposted by Damian Lyons Lowe
NEW: How did Labour members react to the Spring Statement?
Our latest poll with @labourlist.bsky.social shows:
- Sharp drops in cabinet favourability
- Disapproval of welfare reforms
- Pessimism ahead of May’s elections
@vlazarov.bsky.social breaks down the findings 🧵
Read more: wp.me/p1cU9i-7f0
Our latest poll with @labourlist.bsky.social shows:
- Sharp drops in cabinet favourability
- Disapproval of welfare reforms
- Pessimism ahead of May’s elections
@vlazarov.bsky.social breaks down the findings 🧵
Read more: wp.me/p1cU9i-7f0
Labour Members React to Spring Statement with Pessimism on Policies and Electoral Prospects | Survation
Survation’s second Labour members’ poll in partnership with LabourList conducted immediately following Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement shows sharp declines in leadership favourability, stro...
www.survation.com
April 3, 2025 at 7:47 AM
NEW: How did Labour members react to the Spring Statement?
Our latest poll with @labourlist.bsky.social shows:
- Sharp drops in cabinet favourability
- Disapproval of welfare reforms
- Pessimism ahead of May’s elections
@vlazarov.bsky.social breaks down the findings 🧵
Read more: wp.me/p1cU9i-7f0
Our latest poll with @labourlist.bsky.social shows:
- Sharp drops in cabinet favourability
- Disapproval of welfare reforms
- Pessimism ahead of May’s elections
@vlazarov.bsky.social breaks down the findings 🧵
Read more: wp.me/p1cU9i-7f0
Reposted by Damian Lyons Lowe
NEW: We’re excited to unveil a new partnership with @survation.bsky.social – polling Labour members among our readership.
We think it’s important to highlight the full range and nuances of members’ views. Send us ideas for Qs at mail@labourlist.org.
Some findings…🧵
labourlist.org/2025/03/cabi...
We think it’s important to highlight the full range and nuances of members’ views. Send us ideas for Qs at mail@labourlist.org.
Some findings…🧵
labourlist.org/2025/03/cabi...
Cabinet league tables: LabourList-Survation poll on members’ favourites - LabourList
Ed Miliband is the most liked member of the Labour Cabinet among LabourList readers, a new poll can reveal.
labourlist.org
March 21, 2025 at 7:04 AM
NEW: We’re excited to unveil a new partnership with @survation.bsky.social – polling Labour members among our readership.
We think it’s important to highlight the full range and nuances of members’ views. Send us ideas for Qs at mail@labourlist.org.
Some findings…🧵
labourlist.org/2025/03/cabi...
We think it’s important to highlight the full range and nuances of members’ views. Send us ideas for Qs at mail@labourlist.org.
Some findings…🧵
labourlist.org/2025/03/cabi...
@lordashcroft.bsky.social's polling in Runcorn & Helsby shows Labour have a turnout problem they will need to fix if there's any chance of squeaking a victory. Just 55% of LAB 2024 GE voters say they will definitely vote, vs 78% of REF voters and 70% of CON:
lordashcroftpolls.com/2025/03/runc...
lordashcroftpolls.com/2025/03/runc...
March 14, 2025 at 9:50 AM
@lordashcroft.bsky.social's polling in Runcorn & Helsby shows Labour have a turnout problem they will need to fix if there's any chance of squeaking a victory. Just 55% of LAB 2024 GE voters say they will definitely vote, vs 78% of REF voters and 70% of CON:
lordashcroftpolls.com/2025/03/runc...
lordashcroftpolls.com/2025/03/runc...
Maybe there is such a thing as bad publicity?
Tesla’s crash back towards reality, in several charts:
www.ft.com/content/ca1c...
Tesla’s crash back towards reality, in several charts:
www.ft.com/content/ca1c...
Tesla’s crash back towards reality, in several charts
Rapid unscheduled share-price disassembly
www.ft.com
March 10, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Maybe there is such a thing as bad publicity?
Tesla’s crash back towards reality, in several charts:
www.ft.com/content/ca1c...
Tesla’s crash back towards reality, in several charts:
www.ft.com/content/ca1c...
Pleased to see @politico.com’s article today “Top Trump allies hold secret talks with Zelenskyy’s Ukrainian opponents” featured our new Ukraine polling - which serves as a useful reality check on Zelenskyy’s true popularity: www.politico.eu/article/dona...
Top Trump allies hold secret talks with Zelenskyy’s Ukrainian opponents
As Washington ramps up its pressure on Zelenskyy to step aside, his rivals are talking to Trump’s team.
www.politico.eu
March 6, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Pleased to see @politico.com’s article today “Top Trump allies hold secret talks with Zelenskyy’s Ukrainian opponents” featured our new Ukraine polling - which serves as a useful reality check on Zelenskyy’s true popularity: www.politico.eu/article/dona...
Trump slapping tariffs on Canada like they’re a global supervillain while giving Russia a free pass. Exactly what did Trudeau do to deserve this?
March 4, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Trump slapping tariffs on Canada like they’re a global supervillain while giving Russia a free pass. Exactly what did Trudeau do to deserve this?
Is Zelenskyy losing public support at home?
With strained US-Ukr relations, & Trump calling Zelenskyy a "dictator without elections" with a "4% approval" rating - where does public opinion in Ukraine actually stand?
Approval, trust, and attitudes on war & peace:
www.survation.com/is-zelenskyy...
With strained US-Ukr relations, & Trump calling Zelenskyy a "dictator without elections" with a "4% approval" rating - where does public opinion in Ukraine actually stand?
Approval, trust, and attitudes on war & peace:
www.survation.com/is-zelenskyy...
Is Zelenskyy Losing Public Support? Examining Approval, Trust, and Attitudes Toward War and Peace in Ukraine | Survation
Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives in the US today to sign at least a draft of a resources trade deal, discuss ongoing peace negotiations, and address the...
www.survation.com
February 28, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Is Zelenskyy losing public support at home?
With strained US-Ukr relations, & Trump calling Zelenskyy a "dictator without elections" with a "4% approval" rating - where does public opinion in Ukraine actually stand?
Approval, trust, and attitudes on war & peace:
www.survation.com/is-zelenskyy...
With strained US-Ukr relations, & Trump calling Zelenskyy a "dictator without elections" with a "4% approval" rating - where does public opinion in Ukraine actually stand?
Approval, trust, and attitudes on war & peace:
www.survation.com/is-zelenskyy...
Another day of US markets getting roiled again by Trump's tariff talk - US equities are now lower than inauguration day for the first time. Europe & Chi-na doing very well:
Global market performance since Trump's Second Inauguration (Jan 20, 2025 - Feb 27, 2025)
Global market performance since Trump's Second Inauguration (Jan 20, 2025 - Feb 27, 2025)
February 27, 2025 at 9:18 PM
Another day of US markets getting roiled again by Trump's tariff talk - US equities are now lower than inauguration day for the first time. Europe & Chi-na doing very well:
Global market performance since Trump's Second Inauguration (Jan 20, 2025 - Feb 27, 2025)
Global market performance since Trump's Second Inauguration (Jan 20, 2025 - Feb 27, 2025)
Initial market reaction to the German exit polls of either a CDU/CSU + SPD coalition or involvement of the FDP (if they make the 5% cut) is relief.
The DAX index is trading +0.53% the Euro +0.33%
The DAX index is trading +0.53% the Euro +0.33%
February 23, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Initial market reaction to the German exit polls of either a CDU/CSU + SPD coalition or involvement of the FDP (if they make the 5% cut) is relief.
The DAX index is trading +0.53% the Euro +0.33%
The DAX index is trading +0.53% the Euro +0.33%
Reposted by Damian Lyons Lowe
Was TikTok’s algorithm manipulated at the Romanian election? Our new poll suggests that young people in Romania lack trust in the platform.
47% of young Romanians saw far-right candidate Călin Georgescu “very often” on TikTok before the annulled election—far exceeding other candidates.
47% of young Romanians saw far-right candidate Călin Georgescu “very often” on TikTok before the annulled election—far exceeding other candidates.
February 17, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Was TikTok’s algorithm manipulated at the Romanian election? Our new poll suggests that young people in Romania lack trust in the platform.
47% of young Romanians saw far-right candidate Călin Georgescu “very often” on TikTok before the annulled election—far exceeding other candidates.
47% of young Romanians saw far-right candidate Călin Georgescu “very often” on TikTok before the annulled election—far exceeding other candidates.
Roses are red
Violets are blue
This may look exciting
But most likely just skew
Violets are blue
This may look exciting
But most likely just skew
February 14, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Roses are red
Violets are blue
This may look exciting
But most likely just skew
Violets are blue
This may look exciting
But most likely just skew
Reposted by Damian Lyons Lowe
Headmaster Starmer faces questions from the Debating Society: my PMQs SKETCH:
thecritic.co.uk/the-...
thecritic.co.uk/the-...
The supercilious headmaster | Robert Hutton | The Critic Magazine
Keir Starmer walked into the House of Commons like a head walking into a rowdy assembly hall. In one corner Nigel Farage, a schoolboy always on the edge of being in trouble even as teachers struggle…
thecritic.co.uk
January 22, 2025 at 6:28 PM
Headmaster Starmer faces questions from the Debating Society: my PMQs SKETCH:
thecritic.co.uk/the-...
thecritic.co.uk/the-...