Dr Theodosios Chatzistergos
@damagedonegr.bsky.social
Researcher at Max Planck institute for solar system research.
Studying solar activity and variability.
I am not on x (twitter), my account there is deleted.
https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=8gnK6BsAAAAJ&hl=en
Studying solar activity and variability.
I am not on x (twitter), my account there is deleted.
https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=8gnK6BsAAAAJ&hl=en
Εχουμε νικητη.
Για το Σαχινη φυσικά και δεν έκανε κανένα λάθος ο Φαρσαλινος, ο Σόρος φταίει και πάλι...
Για το Σαχινη φυσικά και δεν έκανε κανένα λάθος ο Φαρσαλινος, ο Σόρος φταίει και πάλι...
November 14, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Εχουμε νικητη.
Για το Σαχινη φυσικά και δεν έκανε κανένα λάθος ο Φαρσαλινος, ο Σόρος φταίει και πάλι...
Για το Σαχινη φυσικά και δεν έκανε κανένα λάθος ο Φαρσαλινος, ο Σόρος φταίει και πάλι...
A quick reminder that the claim that "TSI
variability can explain more than 70% of the temperature variability since preindustrial times" is based on outdated and implausible TSI models. Thus, it is a misleading statement.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
variability can explain more than 70% of the temperature variability since preindustrial times" is based on outdated and implausible TSI models. Thus, it is a misleading statement.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
July 30, 2025 at 7:38 AM
A quick reminder that the claim that "TSI
variability can explain more than 70% of the temperature variability since preindustrial times" is based on outdated and implausible TSI models. Thus, it is a misleading statement.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
variability can explain more than 70% of the temperature variability since preindustrial times" is based on outdated and implausible TSI models. Thus, it is a misleading statement.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
The method by Velasco Herrera, Willie Soon, et al., 2024 stood out as particularly problematic due to serious methodological flaws.
In particular, for implicitly assuming a constant standard deviation in sunspot number, which in reality varies significantly over time.
In particular, for implicitly assuming a constant standard deviation in sunspot number, which in reality varies significantly over time.
July 7, 2025 at 6:14 AM
The method by Velasco Herrera, Willie Soon, et al., 2024 stood out as particularly problematic due to serious methodological flaws.
In particular, for implicitly assuming a constant standard deviation in sunspot number, which in reality varies significantly over time.
In particular, for implicitly assuming a constant standard deviation in sunspot number, which in reality varies significantly over time.
The non-linear, non-parametric methods gave more accurate results across the different tests we did.
However, methods that rely on statistical assumptions rather than direct overlap generally performed worse.
However, methods that rely on statistical assumptions rather than direct overlap generally performed worse.
July 7, 2025 at 6:14 AM
The non-linear, non-parametric methods gave more accurate results across the different tests we did.
However, methods that rely on statistical assumptions rather than direct overlap generally performed worse.
However, methods that rely on statistical assumptions rather than direct overlap generally performed worse.
We found that linear scaling (Hoyt & Schatten 1998, Svalgaard & Schatten 2016) tends to overestimate the peaks of strong cycles and underestimate those of weak ones.
This skews the overall results, and can significantly affect the long-term trends in solar activity.
This skews the overall results, and can significantly affect the long-term trends in solar activity.
July 7, 2025 at 6:14 AM
We found that linear scaling (Hoyt & Schatten 1998, Svalgaard & Schatten 2016) tends to overestimate the peaks of strong cycles and underestimate those of weak ones.
This skews the overall results, and can significantly affect the long-term trends in solar activity.
This skews the overall results, and can significantly affect the long-term trends in solar activity.
In total, five major cross-calibration methods have been proposed. Each gives a slightly different picture of long-term solar activity.
July 7, 2025 at 6:14 AM
In total, five major cross-calibration methods have been proposed. Each gives a slightly different picture of long-term solar activity.
But that isn't easy & as a result there are different methods for doing this, which don't always agree.
Historically, this was done with linear scaling, a method first applied by Rudolf Wolf in the 1840s.
However, newer research shows that this scaling can introduce errors and distort the data.
Historically, this was done with linear scaling, a method first applied by Rudolf Wolf in the 1840s.
However, newer research shows that this scaling can introduce errors and distort the data.
July 7, 2025 at 6:14 AM
But that isn't easy & as a result there are different methods for doing this, which don't always agree.
Historically, this was done with linear scaling, a method first applied by Rudolf Wolf in the 1840s.
However, newer research shows that this scaling can introduce errors and distort the data.
Historically, this was done with linear scaling, a method first applied by Rudolf Wolf in the 1840s.
However, newer research shows that this scaling can introduce errors and distort the data.
Early telescopes were not nearly as good as the ones we use today. They missed smaller sunspots that we can now see.
This means that older records may underestimate how active the Sun really was.
To get an accurate long-term view, we need to cross-calibrate all records to a common standard.
This means that older records may underestimate how active the Sun really was.
To get an accurate long-term view, we need to cross-calibrate all records to a common standard.
July 7, 2025 at 6:14 AM
Early telescopes were not nearly as good as the ones we use today. They missed smaller sunspots that we can now see.
This means that older records may underestimate how active the Sun really was.
To get an accurate long-term view, we need to cross-calibrate all records to a common standard.
This means that older records may underestimate how active the Sun really was.
To get an accurate long-term view, we need to cross-calibrate all records to a common standard.
New paper alert 🧪☀️☄️
In this study, we assessed different methods of combining sunspot number records from various observers, which will strengthen our ability to construct a consistent solar activity history.
doi.org/10.1051/0004...
In this study, we assessed different methods of combining sunspot number records from various observers, which will strengthen our ability to construct a consistent solar activity history.
doi.org/10.1051/0004...
July 7, 2025 at 6:14 AM
New paper alert 🧪☀️☄️
In this study, we assessed different methods of combining sunspot number records from various observers, which will strengthen our ability to construct a consistent solar activity history.
doi.org/10.1051/0004...
In this study, we assessed different methods of combining sunspot number records from various observers, which will strengthen our ability to construct a consistent solar activity history.
doi.org/10.1051/0004...
Willie Soon is indeed aware of these artefacts. Yet in the 1.5 year since I published this he has exploited and misled with the Hoyt and Schatten 1993 model numerous times, always hiding the objective methodological flaws of this model. Well, in his last video he even hides that it is a model!
June 26, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Willie Soon is indeed aware of these artefacts. Yet in the 1.5 year since I published this he has exploited and misled with the Hoyt and Schatten 1993 model numerous times, always hiding the objective methodological flaws of this model. Well, in his last video he even hides that it is a model!
Effectively in this clip, Willie Soon claims to "debunk" NASA's graph which shows global temperature going in opposite direction to the SATIRE-T2 total solar irradiance reconstruction over the recent decades.
June 26, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Effectively in this clip, Willie Soon claims to "debunk" NASA's graph which shows global temperature going in opposite direction to the SATIRE-T2 total solar irradiance reconstruction over the recent decades.
Willie Soon's latest video is a textbook case of climate-change propaganda.
This short clip shows him making outrageously misleading claims about the Sun.
🧵🧪 #climatechange
This short clip shows him making outrageously misleading claims about the Sun.
🧵🧪 #climatechange
June 26, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Willie Soon's latest video is a textbook case of climate-change propaganda.
This short clip shows him making outrageously misleading claims about the Sun.
🧵🧪 #climatechange
This short clip shows him making outrageously misleading claims about the Sun.
🧵🧪 #climatechange
False dichotomy.
Ανακαιφαλαιωση πριν το αλλαξεις παλι:
-Το καθεστως του Ιραν δεχεται μονο τη καταστροφη του Ισραηλ ως "λυση"
-Ιρανοι μη υποστηρικτες του καθεστωτος δεχονται αλλες λυσεις
-Ιρανοι μπορουν να ειναι ταυτοχρονα αισιοδοξοι οτι θα πεσει το καθεστως και φοβο/θλιψη για τους θανατους πολιτων.
Ανακαιφαλαιωση πριν το αλλαξεις παλι:
-Το καθεστως του Ιραν δεχεται μονο τη καταστροφη του Ισραηλ ως "λυση"
-Ιρανοι μη υποστηρικτες του καθεστωτος δεχονται αλλες λυσεις
-Ιρανοι μπορουν να ειναι ταυτοχρονα αισιοδοξοι οτι θα πεσει το καθεστως και φοβο/θλιψη για τους θανατους πολιτων.
June 22, 2025 at 1:55 PM
False dichotomy.
Ανακαιφαλαιωση πριν το αλλαξεις παλι:
-Το καθεστως του Ιραν δεχεται μονο τη καταστροφη του Ισραηλ ως "λυση"
-Ιρανοι μη υποστηρικτες του καθεστωτος δεχονται αλλες λυσεις
-Ιρανοι μπορουν να ειναι ταυτοχρονα αισιοδοξοι οτι θα πεσει το καθεστως και φοβο/θλιψη για τους θανατους πολιτων.
Ανακαιφαλαιωση πριν το αλλαξεις παλι:
-Το καθεστως του Ιραν δεχεται μονο τη καταστροφη του Ισραηλ ως "λυση"
-Ιρανοι μη υποστηρικτες του καθεστωτος δεχονται αλλες λυσεις
-Ιρανοι μπορουν να ειναι ταυτοχρονα αισιοδοξοι οτι θα πεσει το καθεστως και φοβο/θλιψη για τους θανατους πολιτων.
Κατανοώ ότι δεν μπήκατε καν στον κόπο να μιλήσετε με Ιρανούς προτού διατυπώσετε τη, στα όρια του γελοίου, άποψη ότι ο ιρανικός λαός συσπειρώνεται γύρω από τον Χαμενεΐ αυτη τη στιγμη.
Ενα κομματι απο το πώς περιγράφουν την κατάσταση οι ίδιοι οι Ιρανοί:
Ενα κομματι απο το πώς περιγράφουν την κατάσταση οι ίδιοι οι Ιρανοί:
June 19, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Κατανοώ ότι δεν μπήκατε καν στον κόπο να μιλήσετε με Ιρανούς προτού διατυπώσετε τη, στα όρια του γελοίου, άποψη ότι ο ιρανικός λαός συσπειρώνεται γύρω από τον Χαμενεΐ αυτη τη στιγμη.
Ενα κομματι απο το πώς περιγράφουν την κατάσταση οι ίδιοι οι Ιρανοί:
Ενα κομματι απο το πώς περιγράφουν την κατάσταση οι ίδιοι οι Ιρανοί:
And some of the supposed progressives are not just supporting the IR at this moment, they are also gaslighting Iranians about it.
I honestly witnessed cases of people complaining to Iranian women for not supporting the IR.
I will leave the words of an iranian about this.
I honestly witnessed cases of people complaining to Iranian women for not supporting the IR.
I will leave the words of an iranian about this.
June 19, 2025 at 12:59 PM
And some of the supposed progressives are not just supporting the IR at this moment, they are also gaslighting Iranians about it.
I honestly witnessed cases of people complaining to Iranian women for not supporting the IR.
I will leave the words of an iranian about this.
I honestly witnessed cases of people complaining to Iranian women for not supporting the IR.
I will leave the words of an iranian about this.
Interestingly, Green & Soon claim that Bard et al. (2000) and HS93 are independent, yet fail to mention how both exaggerated their long-term trend, treated as a free parameter, based on the same study: Lean et al. (1992).
May 20, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Interestingly, Green & Soon claim that Bard et al. (2000) and HS93 are independent, yet fail to mention how both exaggerated their long-term trend, treated as a free parameter, based on the same study: Lean et al. (1992).
Yet another paper by Willie Soon built entirely on the assumption that two outdated and scientifically unsupported total solar irradiance (TSI) reconstructions, Hoyt & Schatten (1993) and Bard et al. (2000), are still plausible.
May 20, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Yet another paper by Willie Soon built entirely on the assumption that two outdated and scientifically unsupported total solar irradiance (TSI) reconstructions, Hoyt & Schatten (1993) and Bard et al. (2000), are still plausible.
New paper alert 🧪☀️🔭⚛️☄️
In this study, led by Prof. Ilya Usoskin, we reconstructed solar activity, expressed in terms of sunspot numbers, throughout the first millennium BCE using annually resolved ¹⁴C concentrations in tree rings, resolving individual solar cycles.
doi.org/10.1051/0004...
In this study, led by Prof. Ilya Usoskin, we reconstructed solar activity, expressed in terms of sunspot numbers, throughout the first millennium BCE using annually resolved ¹⁴C concentrations in tree rings, resolving individual solar cycles.
doi.org/10.1051/0004...
May 16, 2025 at 8:56 AM
New paper alert 🧪☀️🔭⚛️☄️
In this study, led by Prof. Ilya Usoskin, we reconstructed solar activity, expressed in terms of sunspot numbers, throughout the first millennium BCE using annually resolved ¹⁴C concentrations in tree rings, resolving individual solar cycles.
doi.org/10.1051/0004...
In this study, led by Prof. Ilya Usoskin, we reconstructed solar activity, expressed in terms of sunspot numbers, throughout the first millennium BCE using annually resolved ¹⁴C concentrations in tree rings, resolving individual solar cycles.
doi.org/10.1051/0004...
This misleading trick has been used by deniers countless times, from the "great global warming swindle" and "climate the movie" to the nonsense "paper" by Grok and Soon among many.
May 6, 2025 at 10:12 PM
This misleading trick has been used by deniers countless times, from the "great global warming swindle" and "climate the movie" to the nonsense "paper" by Grok and Soon among many.
In our email exchanges, Hoyt avoided answering how he extended the smoothed sunspot number over the 10 years after the publication date of their paper (since they shifted it back by 10 years). What still seems curious to me is how closely their extension resembles another index they had used.
May 5, 2025 at 2:24 PM
In our email exchanges, Hoyt avoided answering how he extended the smoothed sunspot number over the 10 years after the publication date of their paper (since they shifted it back by 10 years). What still seems curious to me is how closely their extension resembles another index they had used.
Climate skeptics asked Grok to write a ‘scientific review’ on climate science, only to find it does not endorse climate denial. Their solution? Forcing it to include their denialist talking points, which Grok acknowledges. Priceless.
April 3, 2025 at 6:43 AM
Climate skeptics asked Grok to write a ‘scientific review’ on climate science, only to find it does not endorse climate denial. Their solution? Forcing it to include their denialist talking points, which Grok acknowledges. Priceless.
That is great! It is cloudy here too. I had to wait for a small gap
March 29, 2025 at 12:00 PM
That is great! It is cloudy here too. I had to wait for a small gap
Partial solar eclipse now
(with a nice sunspot at the upper left part)
(with a nice sunspot at the upper left part)
March 29, 2025 at 11:18 AM
Partial solar eclipse now
(with a nice sunspot at the upper left part)
(with a nice sunspot at the upper left part)
Our findings rule out the ACRIM-gap TSI increase (1989-1991), attributing it to Nimbus7-ERB data issues.
This result is robust, based on 2 independent magnetogram sources with consistent data throughout the ACRIM-gap period, while the trend in our reconstruction is independent of TSI measurements.
This result is robust, based on 2 independent magnetogram sources with consistent data throughout the ACRIM-gap period, while the trend in our reconstruction is independent of TSI measurements.
March 26, 2025 at 10:10 AM
Our findings rule out the ACRIM-gap TSI increase (1989-1991), attributing it to Nimbus7-ERB data issues.
This result is robust, based on 2 independent magnetogram sources with consistent data throughout the ACRIM-gap period, while the trend in our reconstruction is independent of TSI measurements.
This result is robust, based on 2 independent magnetogram sources with consistent data throughout the ACRIM-gap period, while the trend in our reconstruction is independent of TSI measurements.
Our TSI reconstruction suggests a smaller long-term decrease (-0.22±0.17 W/m² from 1976-2019), which is roughly half the one from the previous SATIRE-S version.
Between 1986 and 2019 it suggests a decreasing trend (-0.24±0.17 W/m²), which is smaller than Montillet et al. (2022), but closer to C3S.
Between 1986 and 2019 it suggests a decreasing trend (-0.24±0.17 W/m²), which is smaller than Montillet et al. (2022), but closer to C3S.
March 26, 2025 at 10:10 AM
Our TSI reconstruction suggests a smaller long-term decrease (-0.22±0.17 W/m² from 1976-2019), which is roughly half the one from the previous SATIRE-S version.
Between 1986 and 2019 it suggests a decreasing trend (-0.24±0.17 W/m²), which is smaller than Montillet et al. (2022), but closer to C3S.
Between 1986 and 2019 it suggests a decreasing trend (-0.24±0.17 W/m²), which is smaller than Montillet et al. (2022), but closer to C3S.