Cole Curtiss-Fuentes - The #OscarsModel
@curtissonfilm.bsky.social
(he/him) Oscars writer & co-creator of the reigning best mathematical model in predicting the Oscars, with Mitchell Curtiss. Letterboxd: @ccurtiss98
yep, I’ve got it in MUAHS for now!
December 3, 2024 at 4:46 PM
yep, I’ve got it in MUAHS for now!
Adam Klay has you covered via Twitter! The Rider is the only one to not receive any Oscar nominations following a Best Feature win at Gothams.
December 3, 2024 at 2:22 PM
Adam Klay has you covered via Twitter! The Rider is the only one to not receive any Oscar nominations following a Best Feature win at Gothams.
Best Screenplay:
8/10 of the total winners have been nominated at the Oscars, 4 of them won an Oscar in the respective category. (8/9 years; both 2020 winners weren’t nominated at Oscars.)
An adapted script has won here only twice- both times it was nominated at Oscars (1 won).
8/10 of the total winners have been nominated at the Oscars, 4 of them won an Oscar in the respective category. (8/9 years; both 2020 winners weren’t nominated at Oscars.)
An adapted script has won here only twice- both times it was nominated at Oscars (1 won).
December 3, 2024 at 11:16 AM
Best Screenplay:
8/10 of the total winners have been nominated at the Oscars, 4 of them won an Oscar in the respective category. (8/9 years; both 2020 winners weren’t nominated at Oscars.)
An adapted script has won here only twice- both times it was nominated at Oscars (1 won).
8/10 of the total winners have been nominated at the Oscars, 4 of them won an Oscar in the respective category. (8/9 years; both 2020 winners weren’t nominated at Oscars.)
An adapted script has won here only twice- both times it was nominated at Oscars (1 won).
Non-gendered performing categories began in 2021. Since,
1/4 Lead winners have been Oscar nominated. 2 eventual Oscar winners were nominated here but did not win.
2/3 Supporting winners have been Oscar nominated, both won. 1 eventual Oscar winner was nominated here but didn’t win.
1/4 Lead winners have been Oscar nominated. 2 eventual Oscar winners were nominated here but did not win.
2/3 Supporting winners have been Oscar nominated, both won. 1 eventual Oscar winner was nominated here but didn’t win.
December 3, 2024 at 11:16 AM
Non-gendered performing categories began in 2021. Since,
1/4 Lead winners have been Oscar nominated. 2 eventual Oscar winners were nominated here but did not win.
2/3 Supporting winners have been Oscar nominated, both won. 1 eventual Oscar winner was nominated here but didn’t win.
1/4 Lead winners have been Oscar nominated. 2 eventual Oscar winners were nominated here but did not win.
2/3 Supporting winners have been Oscar nominated, both won. 1 eventual Oscar winner was nominated here but didn’t win.
International Feature:
Started in 2020, only Drive My Car has won here and been nominated at the Oscars- it won. Only The Worst Person in the World and The Zone of Interest have overlapped with Oscar noms otherwise; Zone of Interest won at Oscars.
AWIAL is ineligible at Oscars.
Started in 2020, only Drive My Car has won here and been nominated at the Oscars- it won. Only The Worst Person in the World and The Zone of Interest have overlapped with Oscar noms otherwise; Zone of Interest won at Oscars.
AWIAL is ineligible at Oscars.
December 3, 2024 at 11:16 AM
International Feature:
Started in 2020, only Drive My Car has won here and been nominated at the Oscars- it won. Only The Worst Person in the World and The Zone of Interest have overlapped with Oscar noms otherwise; Zone of Interest won at Oscars.
AWIAL is ineligible at Oscars.
Started in 2020, only Drive My Car has won here and been nominated at the Oscars- it won. Only The Worst Person in the World and The Zone of Interest have overlapped with Oscar noms otherwise; Zone of Interest won at Oscars.
AWIAL is ineligible at Oscars.
Best Documentary:
*EVERY single* winner since 2012 has gone on to be nominated at the Oscars for Best Documentary Feature. 3 of these have won the Oscar.
No Other Land keeps defying the odds!
*EVERY single* winner since 2012 has gone on to be nominated at the Oscars for Best Documentary Feature. 3 of these have won the Oscar.
No Other Land keeps defying the odds!
December 3, 2024 at 11:16 AM
Best Documentary:
*EVERY single* winner since 2012 has gone on to be nominated at the Oscars for Best Documentary Feature. 3 of these have won the Oscar.
No Other Land keeps defying the odds!
*EVERY single* winner since 2012 has gone on to be nominated at the Oscars for Best Documentary Feature. 3 of these have won the Oscar.
No Other Land keeps defying the odds!
Best Feature:
In the last decade, 80% of Best Feature winners went onto Best Picture nominations, 5 to wins.
The eventual Best Picture winner at the Oscars has never *been nominated but not won* here.
Strange sign for Anora, Nickel Boys?
In the last decade, 80% of Best Feature winners went onto Best Picture nominations, 5 to wins.
The eventual Best Picture winner at the Oscars has never *been nominated but not won* here.
Strange sign for Anora, Nickel Boys?
December 3, 2024 at 11:16 AM
Best Feature:
In the last decade, 80% of Best Feature winners went onto Best Picture nominations, 5 to wins.
The eventual Best Picture winner at the Oscars has never *been nominated but not won* here.
Strange sign for Anora, Nickel Boys?
In the last decade, 80% of Best Feature winners went onto Best Picture nominations, 5 to wins.
The eventual Best Picture winner at the Oscars has never *been nominated but not won* here.
Strange sign for Anora, Nickel Boys?
Thinking of the different packages and internally consistent predictions are the hardest part of things- sometimes I concerned myself with it, and others I just worried about *most to least likely to be nominated.” Good example!
November 27, 2024 at 4:19 PM
Thinking of the different packages and internally consistent predictions are the hardest part of things- sometimes I concerned myself with it, and others I just worried about *most to least likely to be nominated.” Good example!
There were moments Deadwyler was really going where I had the same thought, that she was a Lead. But maybe just a couple more moments where she was out of the room and I really wondered where the heck she was; I think she’s absent just enough to be Supporting in the end. I didn’t mind the end!
November 25, 2024 at 7:24 PM
There were moments Deadwyler was really going where I had the same thought, that she was a Lead. But maybe just a couple more moments where she was out of the room and I really wondered where the heck she was; I think she’s absent just enough to be Supporting in the end. I didn’t mind the end!