tomorrow 👀

new niche @letterboxd.social list dropped, lmk if i missed any

Adam Klay has you covered via Twitter! The Rider is the only one to not receive any Oscar nominations following a Best Feature win at Gothams.

Feels like a good moment before precursors really start rolling in to plant my flag here-

I’ve never *not* had The Seed of the Sacred Fig in my Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay predictions, and I have it also in Director and International Feature.

Let it be known!

Best first watches of November 2024:

-Anora (2024)
-A Real Pain (2024)
-Casablanca (1942)
-The Piano Lesson (2024)

Lots of current-season catching up this month, and some excellent rewatches. Onto December already!

#nw glad-two-ator

Who wants some updated #OscarsModel results after the HCA nominations?

We are finally up to 4 categories that have had two or more batches of multi-awardees, so these give us some insight- Cinematography, Score, Song, and Documentary Feature.

dragged my feet too long on going to see Conclave and now it's not playing anywhere near me because of Glicked

With the announcement of Oscar-eligible Documentary Features, the #OscarsModel undergoes a slight shift.

None of the leading ones lose their spot; all of the odds increase slightly in a smaller field.

An updated look at Best Documentary Feature according to the #OscarsModel, following IDA mostly. Model still favoring non-English docs; Dahomey and No Other Land tied at the top!

Diane Warren's song from The Six Triple Eight makes a large jump in the #OscarsModel for Best Original Song after winning the main category at HMMAs last night. Emilia Perez's two songs stay strong, followed by other HMMA winners The Wild Robot and The Goat Life cracking top 5.

Updated #OscarsModel results in Best Original Score, after HMMA awards last night! With the win, Emilia Perez moves into top position, with other winner The Wild Robot joining the top 5. The Room Next Door and Dune: Part Two each make a small jump.

#nw

dammit, ruined my accidental streak of movies named after female titular characters

how it feels today

First #OscarsModel results of the new season!

These are *extremely preliminary,* and shared out of resounding interest and desire for transparency/accountability throughout the process.

Here’s early looks at Score, Song, and Documentary. (1/3)

More of what you can expect:

We use precursor awards and lots of math to put together probabilities going into Oscar nominations and wins. You’ll see more as we get more data for the season, but here are some example graphs from last year to give you the idea 👇🏼