Cole Curtiss-Fuentes - The #OscarsModel
@curtissonfilm.bsky.social
(he/him) Oscars writer & co-creator of the reigning best mathematical model in predicting the Oscars, with Mitchell Curtiss. Letterboxd: @ccurtiss98
Pinned
https://curtissonfilm.wordpress.com/2025-oscars-nomination-model/
t.co
We are SO proud to present our
🏆*LIVE 2025 Oscar Nominations Model!*🏆
In our second year of the #OscarsModel, we have you covered this season for all the math leading up to Oscar Nominations. Updated as data comes in, bookmark, share, visit often!🧡
t.co/rozpdQHxp6
🏆*LIVE 2025 Oscar Nominations Model!*🏆
In our second year of the #OscarsModel, we have you covered this season for all the math leading up to Oscar Nominations. Updated as data comes in, bookmark, share, visit often!🧡
t.co/rozpdQHxp6
Reposted by Cole Curtiss-Fuentes - The #OscarsModel
it’s the perfect time to assess the state of the awards race with critics groups rolling in, Golden Globes, and CCA noms
we review the trends we are seeing so far, and assess early data in the Oscars Model with @curtissonfilm.bsky.social
listen👇🏼👇🏼
therollingtape.com/the-awards-tap…
we review the trends we are seeing so far, and assess early data in the Oscars Model with @curtissonfilm.bsky.social
listen👇🏼👇🏼
therollingtape.com/the-awards-tap…
December 18, 2024 at 10:54 PM
it’s the perfect time to assess the state of the awards race with critics groups rolling in, Golden Globes, and CCA noms
we review the trends we are seeing so far, and assess early data in the Oscars Model with @curtissonfilm.bsky.social
listen👇🏼👇🏼
therollingtape.com/the-awards-tap…
we review the trends we are seeing so far, and assess early data in the Oscars Model with @curtissonfilm.bsky.social
listen👇🏼👇🏼
therollingtape.com/the-awards-tap…
This was such a blast! Thank you @dannyjarabek.bsky.social & @therollingtape.bsky.social for having me on the podcast for the first time!
We had a great conversation- a perfect dissection of the Oscars race across the board (with plenty of insight from the #OscarsModel). Give it a listen!
We had a great conversation- a perfect dissection of the Oscars race across the board (with plenty of insight from the #OscarsModel). Give it a listen!
Pausing from our category-by-category analysis, today we look at the impact of major precursors such as #GoldenGlobes nominations and how they’ve affected the awards race 🏆
open.spotify.com/episode/4C5S...
#Oscars #Oscars2025 #GoldenGlobes2025 #TheRollingTape
open.spotify.com/episode/4C5S...
#Oscars #Oscars2025 #GoldenGlobes2025 #TheRollingTape
The Awards Tape: State of the Awards Race & Precursor Recaps ft. Cole Curtiss-Fuentes
The Rolling Tape · Episode
open.spotify.com
December 18, 2024 at 9:22 PM
This was such a blast! Thank you @dannyjarabek.bsky.social & @therollingtape.bsky.social for having me on the podcast for the first time!
We had a great conversation- a perfect dissection of the Oscars race across the board (with plenty of insight from the #OscarsModel). Give it a listen!
We had a great conversation- a perfect dissection of the Oscars race across the board (with plenty of insight from the #OscarsModel). Give it a listen!
*FULLY UPDATED* #OscarsModel following results from LAFCA, HCA, and Golden Globe nominations- there's LOTS to catch up on!
As every Monday, we also have fully updated graphs over time, showing you how the races have been changing. Check it out!
t.co/rozpdQHxp6
As every Monday, we also have fully updated graphs over time, showing you how the races have been changing. Check it out!
t.co/rozpdQHxp6
https://curtissonfilm.wordpress.com/2025-oscars-nomination-model/
t.co
December 9, 2024 at 5:18 PM
*FULLY UPDATED* #OscarsModel following results from LAFCA, HCA, and Golden Globe nominations- there's LOTS to catch up on!
As every Monday, we also have fully updated graphs over time, showing you how the races have been changing. Check it out!
t.co/rozpdQHxp6
As every Monday, we also have fully updated graphs over time, showing you how the races have been changing. Check it out!
t.co/rozpdQHxp6
Big next 26 hours!
We’ve got LAFCA announcing throughout the day, The Astra awards tonight, and Golden Globe nominations announced tomorrow morning- all going into the #OscarsModel. Considering that, I’m going to wait to update the Model until tomorrow morning! See you then 👀
We’ve got LAFCA announcing throughout the day, The Astra awards tonight, and Golden Globe nominations announced tomorrow morning- all going into the #OscarsModel. Considering that, I’m going to wait to update the Model until tomorrow morning! See you then 👀
December 8, 2024 at 11:07 AM
Big next 26 hours!
We’ve got LAFCA announcing throughout the day, The Astra awards tonight, and Golden Globe nominations announced tomorrow morning- all going into the #OscarsModel. Considering that, I’m going to wait to update the Model until tomorrow morning! See you then 👀
We’ve got LAFCA announcing throughout the day, The Astra awards tonight, and Golden Globe nominations announced tomorrow morning- all going into the #OscarsModel. Considering that, I’m going to wait to update the Model until tomorrow morning! See you then 👀
We are SO proud to present our
🏆*LIVE 2025 Oscar Nominations Model!*🏆
In our second year of the #OscarsModel, we have you covered this season for all the math leading up to Oscar Nominations. Updated as data comes in, bookmark, share, visit often!🧡
t.co/rozpdQHxp6
🏆*LIVE 2025 Oscar Nominations Model!*🏆
In our second year of the #OscarsModel, we have you covered this season for all the math leading up to Oscar Nominations. Updated as data comes in, bookmark, share, visit often!🧡
t.co/rozpdQHxp6
https://curtissonfilm.wordpress.com/2025-oscars-nomination-model/
t.co
December 6, 2024 at 3:00 PM
We are SO proud to present our
🏆*LIVE 2025 Oscar Nominations Model!*🏆
In our second year of the #OscarsModel, we have you covered this season for all the math leading up to Oscar Nominations. Updated as data comes in, bookmark, share, visit often!🧡
t.co/rozpdQHxp6
🏆*LIVE 2025 Oscar Nominations Model!*🏆
In our second year of the #OscarsModel, we have you covered this season for all the math leading up to Oscar Nominations. Updated as data comes in, bookmark, share, visit often!🧡
t.co/rozpdQHxp6
tomorrow 👀
December 5, 2024 at 7:08 PM
tomorrow 👀
I feel like a lot of folks here could benefit from thinking the way our #OscarsModel does about precursors:
In a season there are x total number of "points on the board," and any given precursor is worth more/less than others. It's a race that only goes up; not appearing/winning ≠ doom
In a season there are x total number of "points on the board," and any given precursor is worth more/less than others. It's a race that only goes up; not appearing/winning ≠ doom
December 5, 2024 at 2:14 PM
I feel like a lot of folks here could benefit from thinking the way our #OscarsModel does about precursors:
In a season there are x total number of "points on the board," and any given precursor is worth more/less than others. It's a race that only goes up; not appearing/winning ≠ doom
In a season there are x total number of "points on the board," and any given precursor is worth more/less than others. It's a race that only goes up; not appearing/winning ≠ doom
new niche @letterboxd.social list dropped, lmk if i missed any
December 4, 2024 at 6:30 PM
new niche @letterboxd.social list dropped, lmk if i missed any
Huge batch of data as the #OscarsModel prepares for its LIVE launch this week- many of these winners today find themselves atop the odds in their categories thanks to it!
NYFCC is always a fun day, with very worthy and interesting winners. A truly great slate!
NYFCC is always a fun day, with very worthy and interesting winners. A truly great slate!
The 2024 New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) Winners
#NYFCC #TheBrutalist #NickelBoys #HardTruths #Anora #Movies #Oscars #FYC #Awards #AwardsSeason #AcademyAwards #Film #Cinema #FilmSky
nextbestpicture.com/the-2024-new...
#NYFCC #TheBrutalist #NickelBoys #HardTruths #Anora #Movies #Oscars #FYC #Awards #AwardsSeason #AcademyAwards #Film #Cinema #FilmSky
nextbestpicture.com/the-2024-new...
The 2024 New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) Winners
The New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) have announced their winners representing the best in film for 2024. The awards will be handed out during their annual ceremony on Wednesday, January 8th, 2024...
nextbestpicture.com
December 3, 2024 at 11:11 PM
Huge batch of data as the #OscarsModel prepares for its LIVE launch this week- many of these winners today find themselves atop the odds in their categories thanks to it!
NYFCC is always a fun day, with very worthy and interesting winners. A truly great slate!
NYFCC is always a fun day, with very worthy and interesting winners. A truly great slate!
While not currently included in the #OscarsModel, there’s still lots to learn from the Gotham winners! A great kick off to the season with an excellent slate of winners.
Here’s a quick thread of all the top-line stats category-by-category: 🧵
Here’s a quick thread of all the top-line stats category-by-category: 🧵
The 2024 Gotham Award (GOTHAM) Winners
#GothamAwards #ADifferentMan #AwardsSeason #Oscars #FYC #AcademyAwards #Movies #Film #Cinema #FilmSky nextbestpicture.com/the-2024-got...
#GothamAwards #ADifferentMan #AwardsSeason #Oscars #FYC #AcademyAwards #Movies #Film #Cinema #FilmSky nextbestpicture.com/the-2024-got...
The 2024 Gotham Award (GOTHAM) Winners
The Gotham Film & Media Institute announced this evening their winners for the 34th edition of The Gothams. The 2024 ceremony took place at Cipriani Wall Street in New York City. The Gothams provides ...
nextbestpicture.com
December 3, 2024 at 11:16 AM
While not currently included in the #OscarsModel, there’s still lots to learn from the Gotham winners! A great kick off to the season with an excellent slate of winners.
Here’s a quick thread of all the top-line stats category-by-category: 🧵
Here’s a quick thread of all the top-line stats category-by-category: 🧵
Feels like a good moment before precursors really start rolling in to plant my flag here-
I’ve never *not* had The Seed of the Sacred Fig in my Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay predictions, and I have it also in Director and International Feature.
Let it be known!
I’ve never *not* had The Seed of the Sacred Fig in my Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay predictions, and I have it also in Director and International Feature.
Let it be known!
December 1, 2024 at 1:13 PM
Feels like a good moment before precursors really start rolling in to plant my flag here-
I’ve never *not* had The Seed of the Sacred Fig in my Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay predictions, and I have it also in Director and International Feature.
Let it be known!
I’ve never *not* had The Seed of the Sacred Fig in my Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay predictions, and I have it also in Director and International Feature.
Let it be known!
Best first watches of November 2024:
-Anora (2024)
-A Real Pain (2024)
-Casablanca (1942)
-The Piano Lesson (2024)
Lots of current-season catching up this month, and some excellent rewatches. Onto December already!
-Anora (2024)
-A Real Pain (2024)
-Casablanca (1942)
-The Piano Lesson (2024)
Lots of current-season catching up this month, and some excellent rewatches. Onto December already!
December 1, 2024 at 12:50 PM
Best first watches of November 2024:
-Anora (2024)
-A Real Pain (2024)
-Casablanca (1942)
-The Piano Lesson (2024)
Lots of current-season catching up this month, and some excellent rewatches. Onto December already!
-Anora (2024)
-A Real Pain (2024)
-Casablanca (1942)
-The Piano Lesson (2024)
Lots of current-season catching up this month, and some excellent rewatches. Onto December already!
Gladiator II was just fine, though its screenplay makes stubbornly poor decisions. Mescal's Lucius is stiff and not as charismatic as it requires. Pretty good to look at & immersion in Rome is still fun, but Denzel and production design can't make this float.
t.co/MiiRPnZjRV
t.co/MiiRPnZjRV
https://boxd.it/7UIkD1
t.co
November 27, 2024 at 4:29 PM
Gladiator II was just fine, though its screenplay makes stubbornly poor decisions. Mescal's Lucius is stiff and not as charismatic as it requires. Pretty good to look at & immersion in Rome is still fun, but Denzel and production design can't make this float.
t.co/MiiRPnZjRV
t.co/MiiRPnZjRV
With the holiday weekend coming, I've finalized my new personal Oscar nomination predictions going into November.
*Everything* has now been seen (obviously not by me)! Wicked skyrockets, I take a swing on Conclave, and many races are full of uncertainty.
t.co/9i6BJEJKXo
*Everything* has now been seen (obviously not by me)! Wicked skyrockets, I take a swing on Conclave, and many races are full of uncertainty.
t.co/9i6BJEJKXo
https://curtissonfilm.wordpress.com/2025-oscar-nomination-predictions/
t.co
November 27, 2024 at 4:03 PM
With the holiday weekend coming, I've finalized my new personal Oscar nomination predictions going into November.
*Everything* has now been seen (obviously not by me)! Wicked skyrockets, I take a swing on Conclave, and many races are full of uncertainty.
t.co/9i6BJEJKXo
*Everything* has now been seen (obviously not by me)! Wicked skyrockets, I take a swing on Conclave, and many races are full of uncertainty.
t.co/9i6BJEJKXo
Who wants some updated #OscarsModel results after the HCA nominations?
We are finally up to 4 categories that have had two or more batches of multi-awardees, so these give us some insight- Cinematography, Score, Song, and Documentary Feature.
We are finally up to 4 categories that have had two or more batches of multi-awardees, so these give us some insight- Cinematography, Score, Song, and Documentary Feature.
November 25, 2024 at 8:03 PM
Who wants some updated #OscarsModel results after the HCA nominations?
We are finally up to 4 categories that have had two or more batches of multi-awardees, so these give us some insight- Cinematography, Score, Song, and Documentary Feature.
We are finally up to 4 categories that have had two or more batches of multi-awardees, so these give us some insight- Cinematography, Score, Song, and Documentary Feature.
HCAs give us our season’s full slate of above-the-line nominees! The categories most predictive of Oscar nominations in the #OscarsModel are Animated Feature (almost 80%!), Lead Actor, and both Screenplay categories (~70%). Important gets for Challengers, The Substance, & more that needed it!
The 2024 Hollywood Creative Alliance’s (#HCA) Astra Film And Creative Arts Award Nominations
#AstraAwards #TheAstras #Wicked #WickedMovie #DunePartTwo #EmiliaPerez #Oscars #FYC #AwardsSeason #AcademyAwards #Awards #Movies #Film #Cinema #FilmSky nextbestpicture.com/the-2024-hol...
#AstraAwards #TheAstras #Wicked #WickedMovie #DunePartTwo #EmiliaPerez #Oscars #FYC #AwardsSeason #AcademyAwards #Awards #Movies #Film #Cinema #FilmSky nextbestpicture.com/the-2024-hol...
The 2024 Hollywood Creative Alliance’s (HCA) Astra Film And Creative Arts Award Nominations
The Hollywood Creative Alliance (HCA) have announced their nominations representing the best in film for 2024. The organization will host two ceremonies – a luncheon and dinner – on Sunday, December 8...
nextbestpicture.com
November 25, 2024 at 6:32 PM
HCAs give us our season’s full slate of above-the-line nominees! The categories most predictive of Oscar nominations in the #OscarsModel are Animated Feature (almost 80%!), Lead Actor, and both Screenplay categories (~70%). Important gets for Challengers, The Substance, & more that needed it!
Sad to see this one already losing steam this awards season- it's quite good! I found it to be a fascinating rumination on legacy and trauma, and was impressed by Washington's debut direction and adaptation. Both Deadwyler and JDW impressed me! Solid.
boxd.it/7TND7p
boxd.it/7TND7p
A ★★★★ review of The Piano Lesson (2024)
Sad to see this one already losing steam this awards season (in large part by Netflix's own ambivalence towards it), because this is really quite good! I knew nothing of the story behind it and Wilson...
boxd.it
November 25, 2024 at 5:45 PM
Sad to see this one already losing steam this awards season- it's quite good! I found it to be a fascinating rumination on legacy and trauma, and was impressed by Washington's debut direction and adaptation. Both Deadwyler and JDW impressed me! Solid.
boxd.it/7TND7p
boxd.it/7TND7p
While only overlapping with the Oscars 18% of the time for nominees in total, Camerimage can be an early sign of strength for a dark horse contender, and “The Girl with the Needle” fits the bill! It goes into the #OscarsModel, and it’s one to keep your eye on.
2024 Camerimage Film Festival: Danish Oscar Entry ‘The Girl With the Needle’ Wins Golden Frog
The acclaimed Danish period horror drama The Girl with the Needle, shot by cinematographer Michal Dymek, took home the Camerimage Film Festival’s Golden Frog Saturday night in Toruń, Poland. The winner…
The acclaimed Danish period horror drama The Girl with the Needle, shot by cinematographer Michal Dymek, took home the Camerimage Film Festival’s Golden Frog Saturday night in Toruń, Poland. The winner…
2024 Camerimage Film Festival: Danish Oscar Entry ‘The Girl With the Needle’ Wins Golden Frog
The acclaimed Danish period horror drama The Girl with the Needle, shot by cinematographer Michal Dymek, took home the Camerimage Film Festival’s Golden Frog Saturday night in Toruń, Poland. The winner was selected by a jury led by two-time Oscar winner Cate Blanchett. This year’s jury made a point of adding a "special mention" for The Girl with the Needle…
awardswatch.com
November 24, 2024 at 4:09 AM
While only overlapping with the Oscars 18% of the time for nominees in total, Camerimage can be an early sign of strength for a dark horse contender, and “The Girl with the Needle” fits the bill! It goes into the #OscarsModel, and it’s one to keep your eye on.
The #OscarsModel remembers LA LLORONA...
Believe it or not, La Llorona was actually *the most likely film to be nominated for International Feature in 2021,* according to the math- ahead of Another Round! It's the biggest statistical snub in the category as far back as the Model's database goes.
Believe it or not, La Llorona was actually *the most likely film to be nominated for International Feature in 2021,* according to the math- ahead of Another Round! It's the biggest statistical snub in the category as far back as the Model's database goes.
Remember LA LLORONA? Well, Guatemalan director Jayro Bustamante has a new genre movie out. The darkly fantastical RITA, based on a 2017 tragedy in a shelter for young girls, is now streaming on Shudder. It’s Guatemala’s Oscar entry. Here’s my Variety review 🇬🇹: variety.com/2024/film/re...
November 22, 2024 at 8:25 PM
The #OscarsModel remembers LA LLORONA...
Believe it or not, La Llorona was actually *the most likely film to be nominated for International Feature in 2021,* according to the math- ahead of Another Round! It's the biggest statistical snub in the category as far back as the Model's database goes.
Believe it or not, La Llorona was actually *the most likely film to be nominated for International Feature in 2021,* according to the math- ahead of Another Round! It's the biggest statistical snub in the category as far back as the Model's database goes.
dragged my feet too long on going to see Conclave and now it's not playing anywhere near me because of Glicked
November 22, 2024 at 2:56 PM
dragged my feet too long on going to see Conclave and now it's not playing anywhere near me because of Glicked
With the announcement of Oscar-eligible Documentary Features, the #OscarsModel undergoes a slight shift.
None of the leading ones lose their spot; all of the odds increase slightly in a smaller field.
None of the leading ones lose their spot; all of the odds increase slightly in a smaller field.
November 21, 2024 at 7:39 PM
With the announcement of Oscar-eligible Documentary Features, the #OscarsModel undergoes a slight shift.
None of the leading ones lose their spot; all of the odds increase slightly in a smaller field.
None of the leading ones lose their spot; all of the odds increase slightly in a smaller field.
Reposted by Cole Curtiss-Fuentes - The #OscarsModel
2025 Oscars: Eligibility Lists for Animated Feature, Documentary Feature and International Feature Film for the 97th Academy Awards
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences today announced feature films eligible for consideration in the Animated Feature Film, Documentary Feature Film and…
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences today announced feature films eligible for consideration in the Animated Feature Film, Documentary Feature Film and…
2025 Oscars: Eligibility Lists for Animated Feature, Documentary Feature and International Feature Film for the 97th Academy Awards
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences today announced feature films eligible for consideration in the Animated Feature Film, Documentary Feature Film and International Feature Film categories for the 97th Academy Awards. 31 Animated Features will compete this year, down from 33 last year. 169 Documentary Features, up from 167 last year, will compete and 85 International Feature Films made the cut this year, down from 88 last year.
awardswatch.com
November 21, 2024 at 7:20 PM
2025 Oscars: Eligibility Lists for Animated Feature, Documentary Feature and International Feature Film for the 97th Academy Awards
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences today announced feature films eligible for consideration in the Animated Feature Film, Documentary Feature Film and…
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences today announced feature films eligible for consideration in the Animated Feature Film, Documentary Feature Film and…
An updated look at Best Documentary Feature according to the #OscarsModel, following IDA mostly. Model still favoring non-English docs; Dahomey and No Other Land tied at the top!
November 21, 2024 at 1:29 PM
An updated look at Best Documentary Feature according to the #OscarsModel, following IDA mostly. Model still favoring non-English docs; Dahomey and No Other Land tied at the top!
Diane Warren's song from The Six Triple Eight makes a large jump in the #OscarsModel for Best Original Song after winning the main category at HMMAs last night. Emilia Perez's two songs stay strong, followed by other HMMA winners The Wild Robot and The Goat Life cracking top 5.
November 21, 2024 at 1:28 PM
Diane Warren's song from The Six Triple Eight makes a large jump in the #OscarsModel for Best Original Song after winning the main category at HMMAs last night. Emilia Perez's two songs stay strong, followed by other HMMA winners The Wild Robot and The Goat Life cracking top 5.