Cullen Hendrix
@cullenhendrix.bsky.social
Senior Fellow at Peterson Institute. Sustainability, security, and political economy. Heart masquerading as head since 1977.
You may not believe in climate change, but your insurance company does.
You may not believe in climate change, but your insurance company does.
Wonder if the author is the one in Trump's ear about South African refugees.
November 6, 2025 at 11:35 PM
Wonder if the author is the one in Trump's ear about South African refugees.
Chef's kiss, no notes, America. This is where we are.
I'm so ashamed.
I'm so ashamed.
October 30, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Chef's kiss, no notes, America. This is where we are.
I'm so ashamed.
I'm so ashamed.
When political risk types say we're in unprecedented times, they're right. 2025 combines high geopolitical risk (90th percentile) and off-the-charts trade policy uncertainty. We haven't seen anything like this in my lifetime.
Look at how 2025 blows up the x-axis.
Look at how 2025 blows up the x-axis.
October 23, 2025 at 11:05 PM
When political risk types say we're in unprecedented times, they're right. 2025 combines high geopolitical risk (90th percentile) and off-the-charts trade policy uncertainty. We haven't seen anything like this in my lifetime.
Look at how 2025 blows up the x-axis.
Look at how 2025 blows up the x-axis.
I am sorry but Milei looks like the aging frontman of an indie sleaze band back for one last cash grab ... which isn't a bad metaphor, to be honest.
October 22, 2025 at 5:10 PM
I am sorry but Milei looks like the aging frontman of an indie sleaze band back for one last cash grab ... which isn't a bad metaphor, to be honest.
Love to see a packed house for @piie.com's discussion of the role of the dollar. If you can't be here now, be here online!
www.youtube.com/live/jvh8P-8...
www.youtube.com/live/jvh8P-8...
October 16, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Love to see a packed house for @piie.com's discussion of the role of the dollar. If you can't be here now, be here online!
www.youtube.com/live/jvh8P-8...
www.youtube.com/live/jvh8P-8...
Putting numbers to vibes. The confluence of these levels of global geopolitical risk and global trade policy uncertainty hasn't been seen in at least 40 years (as far back as both series go).
September 22, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Putting numbers to vibes. The confluence of these levels of global geopolitical risk and global trade policy uncertainty hasn't been seen in at least 40 years (as far back as both series go).
Yes. Disney probably thinks they are Ariel or Mulan.
They're acting a lot more like Ursula and Shan Yu.
They're acting a lot more like Ursula and Shan Yu.
September 19, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Yes. Disney probably thinks they are Ariel or Mulan.
They're acting a lot more like Ursula and Shan Yu.
They're acting a lot more like Ursula and Shan Yu.
The @vdeminstitute.bsky.social scored the United States a 0.75 on the Liberal Democracy Index in 2024. Higher = more democratic.
I'm putting the over/under at 0.6 for 2025 - what you got?
For reference, the last year the USA scored a 0.6 was 1968.
I'm putting the over/under at 0.6 for 2025 - what you got?
For reference, the last year the USA scored a 0.6 was 1968.
September 16, 2025 at 4:13 PM
The @vdeminstitute.bsky.social scored the United States a 0.75 on the Liberal Democracy Index in 2024. Higher = more democratic.
I'm putting the over/under at 0.6 for 2025 - what you got?
For reference, the last year the USA scored a 0.6 was 1968.
I'm putting the over/under at 0.6 for 2025 - what you got?
For reference, the last year the USA scored a 0.6 was 1968.
Back in March I warned that tariffs could shrink U.S. drummers’ product choices, especially Canada’s #SABIAN cymbals—one of the Big 4.
After a January rush to beat expected tariffs, U.S. imports of Canadian perc instruments are now down 17% vs. 2024. Look at April!
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
After a January rush to beat expected tariffs, U.S. imports of Canadian perc instruments are now down 17% vs. 2024. Look at April!
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
September 12, 2025 at 8:48 PM
Back in March I warned that tariffs could shrink U.S. drummers’ product choices, especially Canada’s #SABIAN cymbals—one of the Big 4.
After a January rush to beat expected tariffs, U.S. imports of Canadian perc instruments are now down 17% vs. 2024. Look at April!
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
After a January rush to beat expected tariffs, U.S. imports of Canadian perc instruments are now down 17% vs. 2024. Look at April!
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Evidently the 'team of Ph.D. level experts in your pocket' does not know the definition of "exogenous", which seems like it might be relevant for PhD-level research.
August 26, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Evidently the 'team of Ph.D. level experts in your pocket' does not know the definition of "exogenous", which seems like it might be relevant for PhD-level research.
Apropos of nothing, the taller candidate has won 2/3rds of US presidential elections since 1960.
August 22, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Apropos of nothing, the taller candidate has won 2/3rds of US presidential elections since 1960.
More of this, please.
August 8, 2025 at 10:59 PM
More of this, please.
And now my boss and @piie.com president @adamposen.bsky.social has a statement as well. Here's where this kind of self-deception puts us.
August 6, 2025 at 4:53 PM
And now my boss and @piie.com president @adamposen.bsky.social has a statement as well. Here's where this kind of self-deception puts us.
China wasn't a major destination for US musical instrument exports - but it's gotten a lot smaller since Liberation Day. In May, US instrument exports to China were down 80%! Down 30% year to date from 2024.
July 17, 2025 at 5:22 PM
China wasn't a major destination for US musical instrument exports - but it's gotten a lot smaller since Liberation Day. In May, US instrument exports to China were down 80%! Down 30% year to date from 2024.
Don't you know it ... and here I was killing time looking at changes in import shares from 2020 to 2025 - two of the countries taking market share from Chinese imports (Indonesia and Japan) could be facing much higher tariffs come August:
July 8, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Don't you know it ... and here I was killing time looking at changes in import shares from 2020 to 2025 - two of the countries taking market share from Chinese imports (Indonesia and Japan) could be facing much higher tariffs come August:
Great! Now do oil and gas and military & defense industrial complex!
Self-selection encourages these dynamics, as do the policy mixes the different parties offer. Maybe Vance should ask himself why the GOP has lost so much ground with the highly educated.
Self-selection encourages these dynamics, as do the policy mixes the different parties offer. Maybe Vance should ask himself why the GOP has lost so much ground with the highly educated.
July 2, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Great! Now do oil and gas and military & defense industrial complex!
Self-selection encourages these dynamics, as do the policy mixes the different parties offer. Maybe Vance should ask himself why the GOP has lost so much ground with the highly educated.
Self-selection encourages these dynamics, as do the policy mixes the different parties offer. Maybe Vance should ask himself why the GOP has lost so much ground with the highly educated.
Was wondering when this would be updated to reflect Liberation Day and the resulting fallout. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is starting to look a lot like the hockey stick graph on global temperature.
May 29, 2025 at 6:17 PM
Was wondering when this would be updated to reflect Liberation Day and the resulting fallout. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is starting to look a lot like the hockey stick graph on global temperature.
In March, these cymbals retailed for $319.95 (Zildjian A) and $329.99 (SABIAN AA).
Post Liberation Day, they now retail for $339.95 and $344.99.
This was imminently predictable: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Post Liberation Day, they now retail for $339.95 and $344.99.
This was imminently predictable: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
May 20, 2025 at 4:52 PM
In March, these cymbals retailed for $319.95 (Zildjian A) and $329.99 (SABIAN AA).
Post Liberation Day, they now retail for $339.95 and $344.99.
This was imminently predictable: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Post Liberation Day, they now retail for $339.95 and $344.99.
This was imminently predictable: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
I'm an 80s kid. I've seen this movie before. Except the aiding and abetting is happening in reverse.
April 15, 2025 at 3:46 AM
I'm an 80s kid. I've seen this movie before. Except the aiding and abetting is happening in reverse.
It won't be easy for US universities to heed this advice. But they should. And most importantly: they should recognize the shared existential threat to their role in a free society and their number one mission: driving out darkness with light. And that it's coming for all of them - sooner or later.
April 14, 2025 at 3:52 PM
It won't be easy for US universities to heed this advice. But they should. And most importantly: they should recognize the shared existential threat to their role in a free society and their number one mission: driving out darkness with light. And that it's coming for all of them - sooner or later.
Yes, yes we were.
April 8, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Yes, yes we were.
It's 4/4 Day! That's something to be happy about. Some links to my work below. I guess if I had to get a day job @piie.com was a pretty nice landing ;-)
Instruments are the tools we use to express joy, sorrow, pain, and elation. They’re conduits for the sonic expression of the human spirit.
Instruments are the tools we use to express joy, sorrow, pain, and elation. They’re conduits for the sonic expression of the human spirit.
April 4, 2025 at 9:17 PM
It's 4/4 Day! That's something to be happy about. Some links to my work below. I guess if I had to get a day job @piie.com was a pretty nice landing ;-)
Instruments are the tools we use to express joy, sorrow, pain, and elation. They’re conduits for the sonic expression of the human spirit.
Instruments are the tools we use to express joy, sorrow, pain, and elation. They’re conduits for the sonic expression of the human spirit.
I was skeptical of Trump's promise to get gas down around $1.87 a gallon. Here's what I had to say to @factcheck.org about it back in October; I guess he really wanted that $1.87 gas.
April 4, 2025 at 9:00 PM
I was skeptical of Trump's promise to get gas down around $1.87 a gallon. Here's what I had to say to @factcheck.org about it back in October; I guess he really wanted that $1.87 gas.