Critical Threats Project
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An AEI project focused on understanding threats and tracking global challenges | Contact us: criticalthreats@aei.org | Media requests: mediaservices@aei.org
Iranian officials are likely calculating that rapidly increasing their ballistic missile stockpile will deter the Israelis from resuming the war despite the missiles’ failures in June 2025. 9/9
December 10, 2025 at 1:31 AM
Iranian officials are likely calculating that rapidly increasing their ballistic missile stockpile will deter the Israelis from resuming the war despite the missiles’ failures in June 2025. 9/9
The Iranian assumption that Israel will resume the Israel-Iran War in the short term is likely animating the decision to prioritize the Iranian missile program over other defense priorities. 8/9
December 10, 2025 at 1:31 AM
The Iranian assumption that Israel will resume the Israel-Iran War in the short term is likely animating the decision to prioritize the Iranian missile program over other defense priorities. 8/9
Iran has begun rebuilding the Parchin and Shahroud missile production facilities, which Israel destroyed during the Israel-Iran War, since August 28 and September 5, respectively, according to satellite imagery analyzed by the Associated Press. 7/9
December 10, 2025 at 1:31 AM
Iran has begun rebuilding the Parchin and Shahroud missile production facilities, which Israel destroyed during the Israel-Iran War, since August 28 and September 5, respectively, according to satellite imagery analyzed by the Associated Press. 7/9
Older manufacturing methods could refer to “trough-type mixers,” which are less efficient than the planetary mixers that Israel destroyed in October 2024, although CTP-ISW is unable to verify the type of mixers that Iran is currently using at the time of this writing. 6/9
December 10, 2025 at 1:31 AM
Older manufacturing methods could refer to “trough-type mixers,” which are less efficient than the planetary mixers that Israel destroyed in October 2024, although CTP-ISW is unable to verify the type of mixers that Iran is currently using at the time of this writing. 6/9
The diplomats also told Israeli media on December 8 that Iran is using older manufacturing methods to continue producing ballistic missiles. 5/9
December 10, 2025 at 1:31 AM
The diplomats also told Israeli media on December 8 that Iran is using older manufacturing methods to continue producing ballistic missiles. 5/9
Western diplomats also told Israeli media that Iran’s “top priority” is to restore the ballistic missile project, even if Iran does not appear to be advancing its nuclear program. 4/9
December 10, 2025 at 1:31 AM
Western diplomats also told Israeli media that Iran’s “top priority” is to restore the ballistic missile project, even if Iran does not appear to be advancing its nuclear program. 4/9
A senior Israel Defense Forces (IDF) official told the Israeli Knesset on December 8 that Iran has resumed large-scale production of ballistic missiles. 3/9
December 10, 2025 at 1:31 AM
A senior Israel Defense Forces (IDF) official told the Israeli Knesset on December 8 that Iran has resumed large-scale production of ballistic missiles. 3/9
This prioritization signals that Iran views the restoration of its missile capabilities as an immediate strategic priority, likely because it is more readily achievable in the short term. 2/9
December 10, 2025 at 1:31 AM
This prioritization signals that Iran views the restoration of its missile capabilities as an immediate strategic priority, likely because it is more readily achievable in the short term. 2/9
Fidan’s statements and Turkey’s potential military preparations come amid discussions about enhancing military cooperation between the two countries.
December 9, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Fidan’s statements and Turkey’s potential military preparations come amid discussions about enhancing military cooperation between the two countries.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan expressed strong support for integrating the SDF into the Syrian MoD, and condemned their failure to do so.
December 9, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan expressed strong support for integrating the SDF into the Syrian MoD, and condemned their failure to do so.
The Turkish government has continued to outline political justifications for a military operation against the SDF if the SDF does not fully integrate into the Syrian MoD by December 31, 2025.
December 9, 2025 at 2:29 PM
The Turkish government has continued to outline political justifications for a military operation against the SDF if the SDF does not fully integrate into the Syrian MoD by December 31, 2025.
The STC offensive may increase tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while increasing Emirati influence in Yemen.
December 9, 2025 at 3:11 AM
The STC offensive may increase tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while increasing Emirati influence in Yemen.
Yemeni actors close to or openly allied with the STC and the UAE have supported or not explicitly condemned the STC’s operation to seize control of these governorates. Some actors have reiterated the STC’s secessionist aims.
December 9, 2025 at 3:11 AM
Yemeni actors close to or openly allied with the STC and the UAE have supported or not explicitly condemned the STC’s operation to seize control of these governorates. Some actors have reiterated the STC’s secessionist aims.
The STC is a UAE-backed political organization that controls some military forces in southern Yemen and seeks to establish an independent state in southern Yemen.
December 9, 2025 at 3:11 AM
The STC is a UAE-backed political organization that controls some military forces in southern Yemen and seeks to establish an independent state in southern Yemen.
Russia is reportedly planning to foment protests in Ukraine, likely to support the longstanding Kremlin narrative that the Ukrainian government is illegitimate.
December 9, 2025 at 12:50 AM
Russia is reportedly planning to foment protests in Ukraine, likely to support the longstanding Kremlin narrative that the Ukrainian government is illegitimate.
Kremlin officials continue to demonstrate Russia's unwillingness to compromise to end Russia's war against Ukraine.
December 9, 2025 at 12:50 AM
Kremlin officials continue to demonstrate Russia's unwillingness to compromise to end Russia's war against Ukraine.
The Kremlin’s recent economic policies indicate that the Russian economy is doing markedly worse than Putin’s statements seek to suggest.
December 9, 2025 at 12:50 AM
The Kremlin’s recent economic policies indicate that the Russian economy is doing markedly worse than Putin’s statements seek to suggest.
Balloons from Belarusian airspace continue incursions into NATO airspace in Lithuania.
December 8, 2025 at 1:41 AM
Balloons from Belarusian airspace continue incursions into NATO airspace in Lithuania.
Russian forces are conducting a battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign against Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs) in northern Kharkiv Oblast, likely to disrupt Ukrainian logistics to eventually facilitate battlefield gains.
December 8, 2025 at 1:41 AM
Russian forces are conducting a battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign against Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs) in northern Kharkiv Oblast, likely to disrupt Ukrainian logistics to eventually facilitate battlefield gains.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on December 7 that the new US NSS is "largely consistent with [Russia's] vision" and could be a "modest guarantee" that Russia and the United States will be able to continue work toward securing a peace settlement in Ukraine.
December 8, 2025 at 1:41 AM
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on December 7 that the new US NSS is "largely consistent with [Russia's] vision" and could be a "modest guarantee" that Russia and the United States will be able to continue work toward securing a peace settlement in Ukraine.