Critical Threats Project
@criticalthreats.bsky.social
An AEI project focused on understanding threats and tracking global challenges | Contact us: criticalthreats@aei.org | Media requests: mediaservices@aei.org
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Iran Update, December 1, 2025
www.criticalthreats.org
NEW | Iranian Plans for a Potential Israel-Hezbollah Conflict: Israeli and Arab media have reported that Iran is prepared to expand an Israel-Hezbollah conflict regionally if Israel launches operations against Hezbollah.
Read today's update from CTP-ISW: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read today's update from CTP-ISW: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is part of the Yemeni government, has seized key areas of Hadramawt and Mahrah governorates in eastern Yemen since December 3. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
December 9, 2025 at 3:11 AM
The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is part of the Yemeni government, has seized key areas of Hadramawt and Mahrah governorates in eastern Yemen since December 3. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to portray the Russian economy as able to support a protracted war in Ukraine — likely to buttress the ongoing Russian cognitive warfare effort falsely claiming that a Russian victory is inevitable.
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 8, 2025
www.criticalthreats.org
December 9, 2025 at 12:50 AM
Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to portray the Russian economy as able to support a protracted war in Ukraine — likely to buttress the ongoing Russian cognitive warfare effort falsely claiming that a Russian victory is inevitable.
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
NEW | The Kremlin positively reacted to the recently released US National Security Strategy (NSS). www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
December 8, 2025 at 1:41 AM
NEW | The Kremlin positively reacted to the recently released US National Security Strategy (NSS). www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
US and Ukrainian officials continued peace talks to end the war in Ukraine in Miami, Florida on December 4 and 5. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
December 6, 2025 at 12:24 AM
US and Ukrainian officials continued peace talks to end the war in Ukraine in Miami, Florida on December 4 and 5. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
NEW | Former senior Assad regime officials are likely funding and equipping clandestine networks in Syria to conduct insurgent activity against the Syrian transitional government. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
December 6, 2025 at 12:14 AM
NEW | Former senior Assad regime officials are likely funding and equipping clandestine networks in Syria to conduct insurgent activity against the Syrian transitional government. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Russian President Putin reiterated his commitment to his original war aims from 2021 and 2022 and unwillingness to compromise – likely as part of the Kremlin’s efforts to shape the international information space during the ongoing negotiations. More here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
December 5, 2025 at 2:14 AM
Russian President Putin reiterated his commitment to his original war aims from 2021 and 2022 and unwillingness to compromise – likely as part of the Kremlin’s efforts to shape the international information space during the ongoing negotiations. More here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
NEW | Former Iraqi Prime Minister and State of Law Coalition head Nouri al Maliki reportedly told the US via unidentified mediators that he would disarm Iranian-backed Iraqi militias if the US supports his bid to become prime minister. Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
December 5, 2025 at 1:51 AM
NEW | Former Iraqi Prime Minister and State of Law Coalition head Nouri al Maliki reportedly told the US via unidentified mediators that he would disarm Iranian-backed Iraqi militias if the US supports his bid to become prime minister. Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
NEW I Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba head Akram al Kaabi threatened on December 3 to attack US Special Envoy to Iraq Mark Savaya in response to Savaya’s “blatant interference in Iraqi affairs.” 1/7
Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
December 4, 2025 at 1:16 AM
NEW I Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba head Akram al Kaabi threatened on December 3 to attack US Special Envoy to Iraq Mark Savaya in response to Savaya’s “blatant interference in Iraqi affairs.” 1/7
Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Excluding candidates who are publicly aligned with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias or parties from key ministerial positions is unlikely to curb Iran's influence in Iraqi government institutions. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
December 3, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Excluding candidates who are publicly aligned with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias or parties from key ministerial positions is unlikely to curb Iran's influence in Iraqi government institutions. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
President Putin rejected the US-Ukrainian peace proposal during his meeting with a US delegation in Moscow on December 2 and remains highly unlikely to accept compromises.
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Critical Threats
www.criticalthreats.org
December 3, 2025 at 5:42 AM
President Putin rejected the US-Ukrainian peace proposal during his meeting with a US delegation in Moscow on December 2 and remains highly unlikely to accept compromises.
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Iran and key US adversaries likely shared tactical and technological lessons on December 2 as part of a five-day military exercise in Iran.
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
December 3, 2025 at 2:20 AM
Iran and key US adversaries likely shared tactical and technological lessons on December 2 as part of a five-day military exercise in Iran.
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Despite threats of engagement, Iran and its Axis of Resistance partners are unlikely to become directly involved in a renewed Israel-Hezbollah conflict. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
December 2, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Despite threats of engagement, Iran and its Axis of Resistance partners are unlikely to become directly involved in a renewed Israel-Hezbollah conflict. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
NEW | Iranian Plans for a Potential Israel-Hezbollah Conflict: Israeli and Arab media have reported that Iran is prepared to expand an Israel-Hezbollah conflict regionally if Israel launches operations against Hezbollah.
Read today's update from CTP-ISW: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read today's update from CTP-ISW: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Iran Update, December 1, 2025
www.criticalthreats.org
December 2, 2025 at 1:01 AM
NEW | Iranian Plans for a Potential Israel-Hezbollah Conflict: Israeli and Arab media have reported that Iran is prepared to expand an Israel-Hezbollah conflict regionally if Israel launches operations against Hezbollah.
Read today's update from CTP-ISW: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read today's update from CTP-ISW: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
NEW | US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US-proposed peace plan aims to ensure Ukraine's independence, sovereignty, and economic development during the US-Ukrainian talks in Hallandale Beach, Florida on November 30.
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
December 1, 2025 at 2:33 AM
NEW | US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US-proposed peace plan aims to ensure Ukraine's independence, sovereignty, and economic development during the US-Ukrainian talks in Hallandale Beach, Florida on November 30.
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Russian state media is leveraging Putin's recent statements to intensify the false narrative that the frontline in Ukraine will imminently collapse, likely in an effort to coerce the West and Ukraine into capitulating to Russian demands:
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
November 30, 2025 at 2:05 AM
Russian state media is leveraging Putin's recent statements to intensify the false narrative that the frontline in Ukraine will imminently collapse, likely in an effort to coerce the West and Ukraine into capitulating to Russian demands:
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
NEW | Israel reportedly gave the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) a deadline of December 7 to make progress in its disarmament of Hezbollah amid ongoing Israeli preparations for a potential operation in Lebanon.
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Iran Update, November 28, 2025
www.criticalthreats.org
November 28, 2025 at 10:09 PM
NEW | Israel reportedly gave the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) a deadline of December 7 to make progress in its disarmament of Hezbollah amid ongoing Israeli preparations for a potential operation in Lebanon.
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Data on Russian forces’ rate of advance indicates that a Russian military victory in Ukraine is not inevitable, and a rapid seizure of the rest of Donetsk Oblast is not imminent.
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
November 27, 2025 at 3:08 AM
Data on Russian forces’ rate of advance indicates that a Russian military victory in Ukraine is not inevitable, and a rapid seizure of the rest of Donetsk Oblast is not imminent.
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
NEW | A Financial Times investigation unveiled that an Iranian company claimed to possess Western-origin nuclear-related technology.
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
November 27, 2025 at 12:31 AM
NEW | A Financial Times investigation unveiled that an Iranian company claimed to possess Western-origin nuclear-related technology.
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
NEW | Iran’s Relationship to Iranian-backed Militias: Unspecified Iranian officials told The Telegraph on November 25 that the Houthis and some unspecified Iranian-backed Iraqi groups have become less responsive to Tehran.
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/5)
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/5)
Iran Update, November 25, 2025
www.criticalthreats.org
November 26, 2025 at 12:51 AM
NEW | Iran’s Relationship to Iranian-backed Militias: Unspecified Iranian officials told The Telegraph on November 25 that the Houthis and some unspecified Iranian-backed Iraqi groups have become less responsive to Tehran.
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/5)
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/5)
NEW | The IDF killed Hezbollah's "de facto chief of staff" Haitham Ali Tabatabai on November 23. Hezbollah officials have stated that the strike crossed the group’s “red line” but did not explicitly vow to retaliate for the strike. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
November 25, 2025 at 2:14 PM
NEW | The IDF killed Hezbollah's "de facto chief of staff" Haitham Ali Tabatabai on November 23. Hezbollah officials have stated that the strike crossed the group’s “red line” but did not explicitly vow to retaliate for the strike. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
NEW I The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) killed Hezbollah’s “de facto chief of staff” and senior commander Haitham Ali Tabatabai in Beirut’s southern suburbs on November 23. 1/7
Read more here: x.com/criticalthre...
Read more here: x.com/criticalthre...
November 25, 2025 at 1:00 AM
NEW I The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) killed Hezbollah’s “de facto chief of staff” and senior commander Haitham Ali Tabatabai in Beirut’s southern suburbs on November 23. 1/7
Read more here: x.com/criticalthre...
Read more here: x.com/criticalthre...
NEW | Coastal Insurgency: Some Syrian General Security Service (GSS) units are improving their counter-insurgency approach in rural minority areas by relying on relationships with locals.
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/6)
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/6)
Iran Update, November 21, 2025
www.criticalthreats.org
November 22, 2025 at 12:47 AM
NEW | Coastal Insurgency: Some Syrian General Security Service (GSS) units are improving their counter-insurgency approach in rural minority areas by relying on relationships with locals.
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/6)
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/6)
All available reporting continues to indicate that the stipulations of the reported 28-point Russia-US peace plan amount to Ukraine's full capitulation to Russia's original war demands.
November 21, 2025 at 2:28 AM
All available reporting continues to indicate that the stipulations of the reported 28-point Russia-US peace plan amount to Ukraine's full capitulation to Russia's original war demands.
Iran has reportedly signaled its willingness to resume negotiations with the United States if its “rights”—which refers to enriching uranium on Iranian soil—are guaranteed.
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
November 21, 2025 at 12:52 AM
Iran has reportedly signaled its willingness to resume negotiations with the United States if its “rights”—which refers to enriching uranium on Iranian soil—are guaranteed.
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Iran continues to develop parts of its nuclear program that could potentially support the development of a nuclear weapon. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
November 20, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Iran continues to develop parts of its nuclear program that could potentially support the development of a nuclear weapon. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...