Critical Threats Project
@criticalthreats.bsky.social
An AEI project focused on understanding threats and tracking global challenges | Contact us: criticalthreats@aei.org | Media requests: mediaservices@aei.org
NEW I Iran is reportedly prioritizing the rapid restoration of its ballistic missile production capacity over other aims, such as the reconstruction of its nuclear program. 1/9
Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
December 10, 2025 at 1:31 AM
NEW I Iran is reportedly prioritizing the rapid restoration of its ballistic missile production capacity over other aims, such as the reconstruction of its nuclear program. 1/9
Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
NEW | Corroborated reports of Turkish military deployments to northeastern Syria and recent rhetoric from the Turkish government suggest that Turkey may be preparing for a joint Turkish-Syrian military operation against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
December 9, 2025 at 2:29 PM
NEW | Corroborated reports of Turkish military deployments to northeastern Syria and recent rhetoric from the Turkish government suggest that Turkey may be preparing for a joint Turkish-Syrian military operation against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is part of the Yemeni government, has seized key areas of Hadramawt and Mahrah governorates in eastern Yemen since December 3. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
December 9, 2025 at 3:11 AM
The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is part of the Yemeni government, has seized key areas of Hadramawt and Mahrah governorates in eastern Yemen since December 3. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
NEW | The Kremlin positively reacted to the recently released US National Security Strategy (NSS). www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
December 8, 2025 at 1:41 AM
NEW | The Kremlin positively reacted to the recently released US National Security Strategy (NSS). www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
US and Ukrainian officials continued peace talks to end the war in Ukraine in Miami, Florida on December 4 and 5. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
December 6, 2025 at 12:24 AM
US and Ukrainian officials continued peace talks to end the war in Ukraine in Miami, Florida on December 4 and 5. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
NEW | Former senior Assad regime officials are likely funding and equipping clandestine networks in Syria to conduct insurgent activity against the Syrian transitional government. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
December 6, 2025 at 12:14 AM
NEW | Former senior Assad regime officials are likely funding and equipping clandestine networks in Syria to conduct insurgent activity against the Syrian transitional government. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Russian President Putin reiterated his commitment to his original war aims from 2021 and 2022 and unwillingness to compromise – likely as part of the Kremlin’s efforts to shape the international information space during the ongoing negotiations. More here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
December 5, 2025 at 2:14 AM
Russian President Putin reiterated his commitment to his original war aims from 2021 and 2022 and unwillingness to compromise – likely as part of the Kremlin’s efforts to shape the international information space during the ongoing negotiations. More here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
NEW | Former Iraqi Prime Minister and State of Law Coalition head Nouri al Maliki reportedly told the US via unidentified mediators that he would disarm Iranian-backed Iraqi militias if the US supports his bid to become prime minister. Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
December 5, 2025 at 1:51 AM
NEW | Former Iraqi Prime Minister and State of Law Coalition head Nouri al Maliki reportedly told the US via unidentified mediators that he would disarm Iranian-backed Iraqi militias if the US supports his bid to become prime minister. Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
NEW I Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba head Akram al Kaabi threatened on December 3 to attack US Special Envoy to Iraq Mark Savaya in response to Savaya’s “blatant interference in Iraqi affairs.” 1/7
Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
December 4, 2025 at 1:16 AM
NEW I Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba head Akram al Kaabi threatened on December 3 to attack US Special Envoy to Iraq Mark Savaya in response to Savaya’s “blatant interference in Iraqi affairs.” 1/7
Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Excluding candidates who are publicly aligned with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias or parties from key ministerial positions is unlikely to curb Iran's influence in Iraqi government institutions. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
December 3, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Excluding candidates who are publicly aligned with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias or parties from key ministerial positions is unlikely to curb Iran's influence in Iraqi government institutions. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Iran and key US adversaries likely shared tactical and technological lessons on December 2 as part of a five-day military exercise in Iran.
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
December 3, 2025 at 2:20 AM
Iran and key US adversaries likely shared tactical and technological lessons on December 2 as part of a five-day military exercise in Iran.
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Despite threats of engagement, Iran and its Axis of Resistance partners are unlikely to become directly involved in a renewed Israel-Hezbollah conflict. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
December 2, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Despite threats of engagement, Iran and its Axis of Resistance partners are unlikely to become directly involved in a renewed Israel-Hezbollah conflict. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
NEW | US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US-proposed peace plan aims to ensure Ukraine's independence, sovereignty, and economic development during the US-Ukrainian talks in Hallandale Beach, Florida on November 30.
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
December 1, 2025 at 2:33 AM
NEW | US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US-proposed peace plan aims to ensure Ukraine's independence, sovereignty, and economic development during the US-Ukrainian talks in Hallandale Beach, Florida on November 30.
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Balloons from Belarusian airspace continued incursions into NATO airspace in Lithuania overnight on November 28 to 29. Lithuanian authorities reported on November 29 that they detected over 60 balloons flying into Lithuanian airspace from Belarus overnight.
November 30, 2025 at 2:05 AM
Balloons from Belarusian airspace continued incursions into NATO airspace in Lithuania overnight on November 28 to 29. Lithuanian authorities reported on November 29 that they detected over 60 balloons flying into Lithuanian airspace from Belarus overnight.
Russian state media is leveraging Putin's recent statements to intensify the false narrative that the frontline in Ukraine will imminently collapse, likely in an effort to coerce the West and Ukraine into capitulating to Russian demands:
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
November 30, 2025 at 2:05 AM
Russian state media is leveraging Putin's recent statements to intensify the false narrative that the frontline in Ukraine will imminently collapse, likely in an effort to coerce the West and Ukraine into capitulating to Russian demands:
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
The LAF has continued to reject Israeli and US statements about its lack of progress in disarming Hezbollah, claiming that the LAF has made significant progress in its disarmament plan.
November 28, 2025 at 10:09 PM
The LAF has continued to reject Israeli and US statements about its lack of progress in disarming Hezbollah, claiming that the LAF has made significant progress in its disarmament plan.
Israel has simultaneously continued to prepare for a potential operation in Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a “special discussion” with Israeli defense officials on November 27,
November 28, 2025 at 10:09 PM
Israel has simultaneously continued to prepare for a potential operation in Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a “special discussion” with Israeli defense officials on November 27,
Data on Russian forces’ rate of advance indicates that a Russian military victory in Ukraine is not inevitable, and a rapid seizure of the rest of Donetsk Oblast is not imminent.
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
November 27, 2025 at 3:08 AM
Data on Russian forces’ rate of advance indicates that a Russian military victory in Ukraine is not inevitable, and a rapid seizure of the rest of Donetsk Oblast is not imminent.
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
NEW | A Financial Times investigation unveiled that an Iranian company claimed to possess Western-origin nuclear-related technology.
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
November 27, 2025 at 12:31 AM
NEW | A Financial Times investigation unveiled that an Iranian company claimed to possess Western-origin nuclear-related technology.
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Weapons Smuggling in Iran: Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Ground Forces interdicted a shipment of explosive devices, weapons, and ammunition reportedly smuggled by Kurdistan Workers’ Party-linked fighters into northwestern Iran on November 25. (5/5)
November 26, 2025 at 12:51 AM
Weapons Smuggling in Iran: Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Ground Forces interdicted a shipment of explosive devices, weapons, and ammunition reportedly smuggled by Kurdistan Workers’ Party-linked fighters into northwestern Iran on November 25. (5/5)
ISIS-affiliates in Syria: Syrian authorities dismantled an Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)-affiliated cell in Latakia Province, indicating that ISIS-affiliated groups may seek to conduct clandestine activities or attacks in coastal Syria. (3/5)
November 26, 2025 at 12:51 AM
ISIS-affiliates in Syria: Syrian authorities dismantled an Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)-affiliated cell in Latakia Province, indicating that ISIS-affiliated groups may seek to conduct clandestine activities or attacks in coastal Syria. (3/5)
NEW | The IDF killed Hezbollah's "de facto chief of staff" Haitham Ali Tabatabai on November 23. Hezbollah officials have stated that the strike crossed the group’s “red line” but did not explicitly vow to retaliate for the strike. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
November 25, 2025 at 2:14 PM
NEW | The IDF killed Hezbollah's "de facto chief of staff" Haitham Ali Tabatabai on November 23. Hezbollah officials have stated that the strike crossed the group’s “red line” but did not explicitly vow to retaliate for the strike. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
NEW I The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) killed Hezbollah’s “de facto chief of staff” and senior commander Haitham Ali Tabatabai in Beirut’s southern suburbs on November 23. 1/7
Read more here: x.com/criticalthre...
Read more here: x.com/criticalthre...
November 25, 2025 at 1:00 AM
NEW I The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) killed Hezbollah’s “de facto chief of staff” and senior commander Haitham Ali Tabatabai in Beirut’s southern suburbs on November 23. 1/7
Read more here: x.com/criticalthre...
Read more here: x.com/criticalthre...
All available reporting continues to indicate that the stipulations of the reported 28-point Russia-US peace plan amount to Ukraine's full capitulation to Russia's original war demands.
November 21, 2025 at 2:28 AM
All available reporting continues to indicate that the stipulations of the reported 28-point Russia-US peace plan amount to Ukraine's full capitulation to Russia's original war demands.