Kamil Kovar
@crisisstudent.bsky.social
Economist paid for doing what I love by Moody's Analytics as senior euro zone economist. Student and teacher of macroeconomic and financial crises. Views my own.
Pinned
Is euro zone unemployment rate unsustainably low? Does the record-low unemployment rate imply a tight labour market?
I think the answer to both questions is “No”.
A longish thread motivated by @bob.
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I think the answer to both questions is “No”.
A longish thread motivated by @bob.
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How bad was the Q4 in euro zone?
Actually, in my opinion it was great. My preferred measure it was the best quarter in two years: Final domestic demand grew at very strong 0.53%.
In other words, the relatively subdued headline growth comes solely from net exports and inventories.
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Actually, in my opinion it was great. My preferred measure it was the best quarter in two years: Final domestic demand grew at very strong 0.53%.
In other words, the relatively subdued headline growth comes solely from net exports and inventories.
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March 10, 2025 at 7:50 AM
How bad was the Q4 in euro zone?
Actually, in my opinion it was great. My preferred measure it was the best quarter in two years: Final domestic demand grew at very strong 0.53%.
In other words, the relatively subdued headline growth comes solely from net exports and inventories.
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Actually, in my opinion it was great. My preferred measure it was the best quarter in two years: Final domestic demand grew at very strong 0.53%.
In other words, the relatively subdued headline growth comes solely from net exports and inventories.
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Ugly, even if not as ugly as the headline number suggests.
That was the #eurozone industrial production release for December, which showed 1.1% decline on the month.
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That was the #eurozone industrial production release for December, which showed 1.1% decline on the month.
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February 13, 2025 at 11:04 AM
Ugly, even if not as ugly as the headline number suggests.
That was the #eurozone industrial production release for December, which showed 1.1% decline on the month.
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That was the #eurozone industrial production release for December, which showed 1.1% decline on the month.
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The final data on #eurozone #inflation did not provide much new arguments for hawks of doves.
It definitively wasn’t a good month, but neither was it a terrible month.
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It definitively wasn’t a good month, but neither was it a terrible month.
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January 17, 2025 at 12:19 PM
The final data on #eurozone #inflation did not provide much new arguments for hawks of doves.
It definitively wasn’t a good month, but neither was it a terrible month.
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It definitively wasn’t a good month, but neither was it a terrible month.
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This was a pretty good month for #eurozone #industrial #production.
0.2% increase for eurozone aggregate, and bigger jump of 0.7% when excluding Ireland.
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0.2% increase for eurozone aggregate, and bigger jump of 0.7% when excluding Ireland.
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January 15, 2025 at 11:21 AM
This was a pretty good month for #eurozone #industrial #production.
0.2% increase for eurozone aggregate, and bigger jump of 0.7% when excluding Ireland.
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0.2% increase for eurozone aggregate, and bigger jump of 0.7% when excluding Ireland.
1/
Is euro zone unemployment rate unsustainably low? Does the record-low unemployment rate imply a tight labour market?
I think the answer to both questions is “No”.
A longish thread motivated by @bob.
1/
I think the answer to both questions is “No”.
A longish thread motivated by @bob.
1/
January 8, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Is euro zone unemployment rate unsustainably low? Does the record-low unemployment rate imply a tight labour market?
I think the answer to both questions is “No”.
A longish thread motivated by @bob.
1/
I think the answer to both questions is “No”.
A longish thread motivated by @bob.
1/
Eurozone #inflation was disappointing, but not particularly bad in December.
Headline inflation surprised significantly on the upside (2.44% vs our expectation of 2.29%), with energy and especially services the main culprit.
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Headline inflation surprised significantly on the upside (2.44% vs our expectation of 2.29%), with energy and especially services the main culprit.
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January 7, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Eurozone #inflation was disappointing, but not particularly bad in December.
Headline inflation surprised significantly on the upside (2.44% vs our expectation of 2.29%), with energy and especially services the main culprit.
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Headline inflation surprised significantly on the upside (2.44% vs our expectation of 2.29%), with energy and especially services the main culprit.
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Reposted by Kamil Kovar
Yesterday's forecasts from the ECB staff served to reiterate the growing eurozone economic gloom: the ECB staff started to produce point forecasts for GDP growth and other variables in Q4 2013. Yesterday's GDP growth forecast (for 2027) was the weakest final horizon forecast since then
December 13, 2024 at 2:26 PM
Yesterday's forecasts from the ECB staff served to reiterate the growing eurozone economic gloom: the ECB staff started to produce point forecasts for GDP growth and other variables in Q4 2013. Yesterday's GDP growth forecast (for 2027) was the weakest final horizon forecast since then
This was not a good industrial production report for #eurozone.
While headline number showed no change, stripping volatile Ireland there was a 0.5% decline.
And while this was mostly about Germany, we even saw another moderate decline elsewhere.
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While headline number showed no change, stripping volatile Ireland there was a 0.5% decline.
And while this was mostly about Germany, we even saw another moderate decline elsewhere.
1/
December 13, 2024 at 11:18 AM
This was not a good industrial production report for #eurozone.
While headline number showed no change, stripping volatile Ireland there was a 0.5% decline.
And while this was mostly about Germany, we even saw another moderate decline elsewhere.
1/
While headline number showed no change, stripping volatile Ireland there was a 0.5% decline.
And while this was mostly about Germany, we even saw another moderate decline elsewhere.
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This is the most puzzling (or scary) euro zone #macro chart of 2024.
Once you don't distort the left axis by including pandemic period, you can see that the increase in savings rate is both dramatic and unprecedented.
Friday data should show a decline, but still..
Once you don't distort the left axis by including pandemic period, you can see that the increase in savings rate is both dramatic and unprecedented.
Friday data should show a decline, but still..
December 4, 2024 at 11:13 AM
This is the most puzzling (or scary) euro zone #macro chart of 2024.
Once you don't distort the left axis by including pandemic period, you can see that the increase in savings rate is both dramatic and unprecedented.
Friday data should show a decline, but still..
Once you don't distort the left axis by including pandemic period, you can see that the increase in savings rate is both dramatic and unprecedented.
Friday data should show a decline, but still..
#Eurozone #inflation comes in soft for November!
Headlines will be full of rebound in overall inflation, but that is old news driven by last November’s base effects.
Instead, the main news was the soft services, which actually declined during the month.
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Headlines will be full of rebound in overall inflation, but that is old news driven by last November’s base effects.
Instead, the main news was the soft services, which actually declined during the month.
1/
November 29, 2024 at 11:57 AM
#Eurozone #inflation comes in soft for November!
Headlines will be full of rebound in overall inflation, but that is old news driven by last November’s base effects.
Instead, the main news was the soft services, which actually declined during the month.
1/
Headlines will be full of rebound in overall inflation, but that is old news driven by last November’s base effects.
Instead, the main news was the soft services, which actually declined during the month.
1/
Today’s detailed data for #eurozone #inflation provided some small relief about the October headline numbers.
The main takeaway is that October numbers were juiced up.
At the same time there is clear evidence that the disinflationary forces are waning.
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The main takeaway is that October numbers were juiced up.
At the same time there is clear evidence that the disinflationary forces are waning.
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November 19, 2024 at 3:14 PM
Today’s detailed data for #eurozone #inflation provided some small relief about the October headline numbers.
The main takeaway is that October numbers were juiced up.
At the same time there is clear evidence that the disinflationary forces are waning.
1/
The main takeaway is that October numbers were juiced up.
At the same time there is clear evidence that the disinflationary forces are waning.
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Reposted by Kamil Kovar
November 18, 2024 at 6:33 PM