Changes in the October Consumer Price Index

GOLDMAN: “.. The biggest
risk [to US economy] is a large across-the-board tariff, which would likely hit growth hard .. because the hit to real income increases ..” [Hatzius] 🇺🇸

“.. The bond market appears to be trading like an inflation vigilante. .. The TIPS 30Y yield has risen 45 basis points since the October lows .. The Fed is getting a CPI warning, which could shift the policy stance from easing to neutral.”

FedWatch Advisors

Wages grew by 3.5% on the past year - more than CPI. But CPI doesn't include mortgages.
When you include those real wages are still falling.

An avge FT worker on $90k in 2021 is now $8,000 worse off #OffTheCharts
Time for the RBA to cut rates!
australiainstitute.org.au/post/wages-a...

Powell’s Q&A moving odds of Dec cut lower. At less than 60% now.

Fed Chair Powell says "NOT IN A HURRY" to cut rates.

"The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates. The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully." - Powell says in Dallas

Private credit has taken >100% of incremental loan growth in total C&I lending in the US and has significantly higher default rates than bank C&I books

Shout out to the United States, where gas, the transition fuel, is now emitting as much as coal did in the early 2010s

robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2024/